Brexit trading opportunities

likme
likme

Surprised there aren't any threads about this.

Even though the polls say there's a 50-50 chance Brexit will succeed, I'd bet on it happening. Of course, if you've watched any financial analyst on TV (at least in the US) in the past week you'd see they're predicting anarchy if so, that all British businesses will be ruined forever. Am I wrong to think they're attempting to artificially lower the price of the pound? I don't think the consequences will be THAT bad, prove me wrong if so.

So if Brexit succeeds, and the pound drops a decent amount I'll definitely buy a few hundred for the hell of it.

Also, any other trading opportunities you guys see with the passing/failing of brexit? The financial analysts are way too butthurt about this which means there's a 100% chance there's a LOT of money to be made.

All urls found in this thread:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/turkish-president-threatens-to-send-millions-of-syrian-refugees-to-eu
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/662235/Turkey-threat-to-open-migrant-floodgate-if-it-does-not-get-EU-deal
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/turkish-president-threatens-to-send-millions-of-syrian-refugees-to-eu
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/662235/Turkey-threat-to-open-migrant-floodgate-if-it-does-not-get-EU-deal
TreeEater
TreeEater

@likme
I bought calls on GDX for Aug paired with calls on VGK for Aug.

TechHater
TechHater

@likme
nothing will happen,britain will not stop trading with europe, germany and france need the english market, all that will change is that you will no more be raped by enraged africans and kebabs

all this fearmongering is retarded, a maximum happening would be a small recession

Deadlyinx
Deadlyinx

@TechHater
Don't try to educate people on something you know nothing about. The free trade between the UK and the EU will stop, not trading in general, only a fool would think that it is going to stop completely.

takes2long
takes2long

@TechHater
Brexit will stop non-EU immigration
kek

likme
likme

@TechHater
all this fearmongering is retarded

If you read my post you'd realize that's the point I'm trying to make. The fearmongering will theoretically artificially lower the price of the pound, creating a great buying opportunity

Evilember
Evilember

@takes2long

It would stop a large part of the immigration, if Turkey is granted EU citizenship that is a lot of kebabs that can freely move to whatever EU country they like, do you think economic migrants will take their boats from Africa all the way to the UK? No. They will however go to Turkey and then be granted passage to all other european countries.

@Deadlyinx

only a fool would think that it is going to stop completely.

100% Agree, if Brexit would happen the economy around the world will enter a small crisis, but in the long term this is good for the UK since their industry will become strong again after having to build up and the UK will have to reach out for trade agreements with countries like China, which would be better compared to today. They would also not need to pay for many of the stupid things the EU impose on membership countries.

Flameblow
Flameblow

@takes2long
definetily not stop, but at least slow it down

Illusionz
Illusionz

@Evilember
if Turkey is granted EU citizenship
why would turkey be granted EU Citizenship? They are negotiating about visa free travel not citizenship
They will however go to Turkey and then be granted passage to all other european countries
why would they? That would imply that they automatically get a passge to all other European countries once they are in Greece (which is not the case)
they would also not need to pay for many of the stupid things the EU impose on membership countries
the UK is paying around 13bn £ to the EU/year and getting back around 6.5bn £ in subsidies. I'm sure that for a country with a GDP of 2.7 trillion, 6.5bn £ doesn't have a huge impact

5mileys
5mileys

@Illusionz

You think it stops at visa free travel?

What do you think the economic/culture impact of 75 million (and many more) people with no respect to for our culture, a completely different view on how women should behave and dress, low skilled, low or no education, low paid would have on our countries?

why would they? That would imply that they automatically get a passge to all other European countries once they are in Greece (which is not the case)

They do, it's called the schengen area, but the people in power realised uncontrolled immigration is fucking retarded so they put up camps along the border of Greece to keep them out, which is also why Greece wants to get out of the disaster that is the European Union since they cannot deport these economic migrants. Even fucking Sweden the "no borders" nation (and I'll have you know that Sweden is located far far away in the North) had to put up border controll since the migrant flow was overwhelming, they took in 10,000 per WEEK for a long time last summer, and they only have a population of 9.5 million. In total Sweden took in 162,000 economic migrants last year, out of these 162,000 only 496 people have had a job in the whole year but they all are on benefits, how is that beneficial to the host country?

6.5bn £ is a lot of money that could be spent on defence, school system, HNS etc

You are so uneducated it hurts my brain replying to you, please graduate high school and read up on current politics.

likme
likme

@TechHater
implying it isn't england who needs french and german markets

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

@5mileys
You think it stops at visa free travel?
yes because that's the only thing that's being negotiated. If you really think that Turkey would get Citizenship in the EU (a right that is only granted to EU citizens) and that is otherwise tedious as fuck to acquire, especially with all the right wing parties rising in Europe, then I'm afraid you literally might be retarded.
They do, it's called the schengen area
The schengen agreement only applies to EU citizens and those with a valid visa.
Even fucking Sweden the "no borders" nation (and I'll have you know that Sweden is located far far away in the North) had to put up border controll since the migrant flow was overwhelming, they took in 10,000 per WEEK for a long time last summer, and they only have a population of 9.5 million. In total Sweden took in 162,000 economic migrants last year, out of these 162,000 only 496 people have had a job in the whole year but they all are on benefits, how is that beneficial to the host country?
I don't know what that has to do with Brexit or anything I wrote but it's nice that you got to rant out I guess?
6.5bn £ is a lot of money that could be spent on defence, school system, HNS etc
no, 6.5bn isn't really that much for a country like UK. Also if you want to talk about wasted money, why don't you look into corruption,the needlessly bloated NHS (which you want to fund even further) and other accounts of wasted tax payer money. In 2014 alone, 120bn of tax payers money went down the drain. And instead of fixing that, you want to stop those 6.5bn, accepting that it will most likely have a negative impact on the economy in the near future? Glad you're probably at an age where you can't vote desu

SniperGod
SniperGod

@likme
I might buy a put on RIG seeing as it is up 7.5% on Friday for no reason. They revised their earnings a day or two prior and the stock did not rise as much. Friday appeared to be shorts covering. Even if oil doesn't have fundamentals to move down, in the coming days with uncertainty, risk increases, thus theoretically driving down the price of oil, and thus a weak player such as RIG.

I'll likely buy a slightly out of the money put on RIG. Likely a strike of 11. As soon as I get a pop I'll sell.

VXX is in a bit of neutral territory right now. Play it at your own risk. It's an ETF that indexes the VIX

Anyone care to expand on their trades or are there literally only "to da moon" meme stock pickers on here?

Lunatick
Lunatick

@PackManBrainlure

please go back to shilling eth whilst working as a janitor, you clearly aren't demonstrating any experience with political matters

tell me how you plan to fix corruption in one of the best countries in the world in regards to corruption

tell me what kind of border controls exists between schengen countries, i can literally drive from norway to italy without being stopped for visa or passport once (before governments put up controls for safety regarding terrorists which have been imported or uncontrolled immigration)

tell me again how the turks are not planning to release the floodgate of currently hold up immigrants in their country if they dont get what they want (eu membership)

tell me again how billions of euros is a little amount of money when it can transform so much or be given to overseas charities (clean food,water,housing for millions) or charities within the uk

you know what, i actually bet you are a turk nobody can be this stupid

askme
askme

@Lunatick
please go back to shilling eth whilst working as a janitor, you clearly aren't demonstrating any experience with political matters
right back at you
tell me what kind of border controls exists between schengen countries, i can literally drive from norway to italy without being stopped for visa or passport once (before governments put up controls for safety regarding terrorists which have been imported or uncontrolled immigration)
I know, I live in the EU too (Austria). But as I said, Schengen is only valid for Schengen countries, all others need a visa.
tell me again how the turks are not planning to release the floodgate of currently hold up immigrants in their country if they dont get what they want (eu membership)
if you think that's what's going to happen? Turkey however is negotiating about visa free travel and not about EU memberships. And again, there are a lot of things turkey would have to fulfill in order to get EU membership, in addition to many politicians in many EU countries being against them joining.
tell me again how billions of euros is a little amount of money when it can transform so much or be given to overseas charities (clean food,water,housing for millions) or charities within the uk
lol how naive are you? If they are not giving away the 120bn that they overspend on useless shit, what makes you think that those 6.5bn would suddenly go to charities? You're so gullible and lulled in by the Brexit movement it's almost sad.

SniperWish
SniperWish

I know, I live in the EU too (Austria). But as I said, Schengen is only valid for Schengen countries, all others need a visa.

then you should know that if a economic immigrant takes a illegal boat from turkey to greece, or from north africa to greece, they can theoretically travel to austria, dump their documentation, go to the nearest migrant center and claim that they are a syrian immigrant in danger due to being christian or homo? who is going to do background checks on people with no documentation? the elves?

if you think that's what's going to happen?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/turkish-president-threatens-to-send-millions-of-syrian-refugees-to-eu

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/662235/Turkey-threat-to-open-migrant-floodgate-if-it-does-not-get-EU-deal

lol how naive are you?

so you think everyone in the government is corrupt and vile? you automatically assume it will go to their pockets even if the public demands it to be spent on other things?

this is my last reply to you, i hope everyone browsing this thread can see what a shill you are - it amazes me to see people with access to world class education being dumber than a rock

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

@SniperWish
they can theoretically travel to austria, dump their documentation, go to the nearest migrant center and claim that they are a syrian immigrant in danger due to being christian or homo? who is going to do background checks on people with no documentation? the elves?
I don't know where you are getting this information but no they cannot. Greek borders are closed to all other countries and almost all refugees are stranded in camps. IF they get to Austria, that's a different story but that has nothing to do with Schengen
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/turkish-president-threatens-to-send-millions-of-syrian-refugees-to-eu
it doesn't say anywhere in the article that Turkey wants EU citizenship, but it's about the 3bn € payment that was part of the negotiations
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/662235/Turkey-threat-to-open-migrant-floodgate-if-it-does-not-get-EU-deal
first of all
using express as a serious source for information
ultra kek

and secondly, it even says in the third line of the article that Turkey is threatening because of the Visa agreement, not because they want EU citizenship.

So umm good job posting two articles to counter dict your statement I guess?
so you think everyone in the government is corrupt and vile? you automatically assume it will go to their pockets even if the public demands it to be spent on other things?
no, not all of them. But a prior mismanagement of public funds leads me to believe that further funds would be mismanaged as well. Whereas your belief is funded on wishful thinking.
it amazes me to see people with access to world class education being dumber than a rock
me too desu senpai

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

What will the brexit/remain vote mean economically for non-EU countries with special deals like Switzerland and Norway?

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

@likme
polls are generally crap... betting markets are skewed towards remain... though not as skewed as you'd first think (remember that the bet is priced in GBP and so a win for a brexit bet also has to take into account the likelihood that the GBP you'll be paid out in will then be worth less)

as for the doom and gloom - have UK gilt yields shifted much?... nope - tis a load of hype and scaremongering

Spamalot
Spamalot

@likme
Surprised there aren't any threads about this.

we big boys here, we know that the UK leaving (leaving to tip of the toe) she has in the eu wont change shit. what will happen? will EU stop doing business? will luxembourg attack the uk or some shit?

nothing will change

Sharpcharm
Sharpcharm

@Evilember
100% Agree, if Brexit would happen the economy around the world will enter a small crisis, but in the long term this is good for the UK since their industry will become strong again after having to build up and the

Sterling will take some hit at first, recover quickly and uk economy starts to get healthier without eu. At that point everybody else wants out too. Brexit would be end of EU and thus saving the continent.

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