I work in real estate

takes2long
takes2long

I work in real estate.

Judging by the low rates, low inventory (with no uptick in sight), inflated home values, sky high rents, we're headed for another housing bust in the next year or so.

Spurred on mainly by investors. It's gonna get ugly.

All urls found in this thread:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UHZcXVmOoo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuT-865Oa1I
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/wells-fargo-launches-3-down-payment-mortgage.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/some-hedge-funds-want-to-make-subprime-auto-loans-next-big-short
Garbage Can Lid
Garbage Can Lid

Sucking dick indoors doesn't count as working in real estate faggot.

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

What is "for-sale inventory?

The number of houses on the market?

Emberburn
Emberburn

@Harmless_Venom
Yes. Near record lows with builders not responding to incentives.

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

if inventory is low then supply is low. thus, prices should go up because demand soaked up supply.

or, supply is low because demand is low.

which is it?

VisualMaster
VisualMaster

I agree but the loan situation is not nearly as bad as it was. Most people in homes are well qualified to be there.

There will be a big dip, but nothing compared to 08.

I think the student loan generation is gonna be the next big problem.

ZeroReborn
ZeroReborn

I work in new development and we literally cannot build houses fast enough lots are sold within days

eGremlin
eGremlin

@ZeroReborn
This. All while Millennials have convinced themselves to rent, not buy. Once people figure out that they're not building any equity and pissing money away to landlords, demand will only go up.

OP is a moron.

Spazyfool
Spazyfool

@VisualMaster
Subprime auto loans may be the next bubble to burst. The average auto loan is above $30k now, and the average length is now 7 years! Many of these are high interest loans made to people with poor credit worthiness, and a huge number of these loans are already underwater. And just like with subprime mortgages there's layers and layers of derivatives and collateralize debt obligations. Once the next wave of layoffs start and people can no longer afford to make payments expect a huge tidal wave of defaults. This bubble is set to pop very soon and will once again send the banks running to congress for another bailout to "save" the economy.

Evil_kitten
Evil_kitten

@Spazyfool
a 7 year auto-loan

shit is fucking hilarious

happy_sad
happy_sad

@VisualMaster
Completely agree. House not problem, loan is problem

idontknow
idontknow

@Spazyfool
So how do we play like our heroes from the big short?

Techpill
Techpill

@LuckyDusty
There isn't going to be much demand.

People want things in life
A House
A new car
A family

after they get those things they are done spending and start saving.
Whats happening right now is alot of investors are buying up properties and renting them out to those people. Investor can only get so many mortgages going. (i think 10) The demand for any houses available is going to go down due to people
already having a home
can't afford a home
if investor, already have too many homes

I agree with OP the market is going to go down, Ive been in real estate for 5 years (im 25) my mother and my sister are both real estate agents my father builds custom homes and my grandparents on both sides are landlords.
Ive watched the prices rise real fast about 1.5-2 years ago and then now they are moving sideways. They are going to fall after this sideways movement due to no more demand for a couple years.

Methshot
Methshot

@Spazyfool
Where else does subprime lending exist?

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

@Evil_kitten
@Spazyfool
I hear this ad on the radio all the time for this used car lot
no credit checks, we finance everyone!

Snarelure
Snarelure

@Spazyfool
Once the next wave of layoffs start and people can
What industry are these layoffs going to be in and what's the cause of them?

Emberburn
Emberburn

@Techpill
What indicators should we be watching for in order to decide when to pull the trigger on some investment dwellings? Where are the hottest pieces of real estate right now (low but looking like they'll explode soon)?

SniperGod
SniperGod

@Methshot
well I'm not an expert. I've just read a lot about the impending subprime auto loan crisis in the news a lot.

Subprime may be returning to housing. Wells Fargo recently introduced a 3% down loan, with low credit requirement.

But I agree with the other poster that student loans is another bubble which could burst soon. Tuition has skyrocketed in recent years, and students just take out bigger and bigger loans to pay the outrageous ripoff tuition without a single thought as to how they'll pay it back or whether their degree will be economically viable. As a result, we have a swelling of Women's Studies graduates with 100k in debt and zero human capital. These loans will never be repaid. Most of these students are counting on the government to bail them out. Expect another trillion dollar government bailout soon.

Additionally, credit card debt is on the rise and has now exceeded a trillion dollars. I'd wager this will also lead to many bankruptcies.

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

@SniperGod
So what can we do to profit it off of it? Can we some how acquire tuition debt to short?

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

@BlogWobbles
Don't know the answer to that unfortunately.

Most student loans originate from the government, afaik. If there's a bailout it's most likely the taxpayers who will foot the bill. Again, not an expert

haveahappyday
haveahappyday

@PackManBrainlure
yes! i love that greasy sonovabitch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UHZcXVmOoo

takes2long
takes2long

@StrangeWizard
@haveahappyday
Yeah man, Niagara region here

Firespawn
Firespawn

Student loan bubble gonna burst eventually. It is a big guy

SniperWish
SniperWish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuT-865Oa1I

over 40% arent EVEN PAYING back at all

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

@SniperWish
Worthless degrees is one of the biggest memes on this site. We must find a way to profit off this.

RumChicken
RumChicken

@Firespawn
for america

DeathDog
DeathDog

@takes2long
this is what i thought was common knowledge. If you are planning on buying a house wait until post november. Things will stay propped up til post election.

Evilember
Evilember

@SniperWish
this is gonna crash so hard lel

Nojokur
Nojokur

Is this good for a first-time home buyer? I plan to buy a house next year and I'm hoping they're cheap

King_Martha
King_Martha

@Nojokur
yeah if you wait till after the housing market crashes. Dont buy before it happens though

TreeEater
TreeEater

@King_Martha
This. Wait until it completely bottoms
and get a fixed interest loan with 15-20% down
as a minimum.

Skullbone
Skullbone

@Spazyfool
average is seven years
jesus christ that's terrifying.

I went for $34K/4 years on a Ford Fusion Titanium almost completely loaded, 0.0% APR. Seven year average means a ton of morons probably taking 20%+ APR loans for ten years

WebTool
WebTool

@idontknow
I've bough December Ford puts. They've dividended out all their cash, and the second this shit starts defaulting they're going under water it looks like.

Then again I saw some podcast that said it had a strong balance sheet so what do I know.

RumChicken
RumChicken

@Spazyfool

That's a pretty small bubble though.

Houses were a massive chunk of the total economy.

Stark_Naked
Stark_Naked

@takes2long
I heard 1/3rd of single families sold in the US last year were to investors , comments?

Nude_Bikergirl
Nude_Bikergirl

@ZeroReborn
I thought this was more of the truth - rents are high because the rush from rural to urban areas as more and more jobs dissapear

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

@King_Martha
time the market because people on Veeky Forums said so

King_Martha
King_Martha

@Harmless_Venom
stay dumb, buy a house right now and ill be laughing at you and everyone else that buys at the peak.
buy high
sell low(default)

SniperGod
SniperGod

@Firespawn
@SniperWish
@BlogWobbles
@Evilember

Thing is there aren't many agents who are substantially exposed to these things beyond the Gov't itself.
And they have such recourse and flexibility of terms to collect that none of these loans will actually default at rates that can shock the system.
The only real proxy might be the US dollar. but even then student loans are such a small part of the overall value, that anything here would be a blip.

Its shocking to me how many people will forgo 2 years of credit hell for 25 years of min payments while interest compounds against them.
Gov't has you on this slow bleed.

FastChef
FastChef

@StrangeWizard
Student loans seem more like a depression than a bubble to me. People are graduating with six-figure debt and have to pay that off. That's essentially like buying a house.

Consumer demand in America is low right now because Americans are mired in debt. Like you noted, credit card debt as well.

I've heard that banks are extending credit limits to get more people to use it up and wind up with more interest.

Where is the next market to sell to? Unless something is done about the amount of debt Americans have I see no reason why our economy should rebound.

The American consumer has historically been a great purchaser - just get your shit to this market and they'll eat it up. But what happens when the American consumer is too focused on repaying debt?

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

@PackManBrainlure
Loans are 7 years because car prices keep rising (even with more and more Mexican labor and Chinese parts) as wages continue to stagnate or even fall. Conservatives hate anything that doesn't enrich the banks, hurt working people, or both, so no alternatives are allowed to happen.

Evilember
Evilember

@Harmless_Venom
Doesn't affect me, I bought my car in full with cash because I get a way better price than someone who finances.

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

@Techpill
Almost 30 here and:
House
I can never see myself owning a house , let alone leaving where I am atm anytime soon. I'd be fine with an apartment I don't need tons and tons of space since it would just be me which brings me to
A family
Yeah this isn't ever happening
A new car
Eh my current car is ok not that I could afford one anyway.

I have really shit luck with jobs.

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

@takes2long
OP and others.

What do you think of the UK market atm? London has been slowing down after additional taxes came in. What are your longer term predictions? I think a crash will happen in 5-10 years, still time for growth imo.

takes2long
takes2long

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/wells-fargo-launches-3-down-payment-mortgage.html

well, now poorfags dont even need the down payment to get a mortgage

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

The most debt is still in mortgages, obviously, but auto and student loan are growing fast. Also, even houses in 09 retained value better than used cars in a bursting auto loan bubble. And their is no underlying equity that can be seized to help settle student loan debt.

I'm not sure what the implications of this are. I didn't know auto debt was being traded as CDO's

JunkTop
JunkTop

@takes2long
I work in real estate.

Might aswell ask the town retard for advice before i ask the failure

Methnerd
Methnerd

@takes2long
Oh no
Not again...

Didnt these people read the big short

WebTool
WebTool

@takes2long
I'm an investor. The inventory is high where I am, but that's because of foreclosures. The bank are trying to slowly release property to prevent a crash. Older people trying to sell houses want like double or triple the price of a foreclosure.The banks aren't getting good prices now because flippers can't clear houses fast enough to make back financing costs.

I'm not planning to put money into anything right now. I dropped out of a recent sale just because after renovations I'm not at a price far enough below comps. comps which are not selling.

FastChef
FastChef

@WebTool
where i live estate sales as well as sales from old fucks are common. it's great seeing houses and condos that haven't been updated, or even well maintained, for 30 years get listed at prices higher than move-in condition properties. of course that shit stays up for months until they probably accept a low ball offer.

Spazyfool
Spazyfool

@Emberburn
So then why would there be a bust?

Fuzzy_Logic
Fuzzy_Logic

@eGremlin
convinced themselves to rent

excel tier

5mileys
5mileys

@LuckyDusty
That cross in 09-10 tho

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

Yellen is too much of a Bitch to raise rates
It's not habbening

SniperWish
SniperWish

@WebTool
how much did that cost you and how much does the price have to fall to recoup paying the premium?

Lord_Tryzalot
Lord_Tryzalot

@WebTool
Then again I saw some podcast that said it had a strong balance sheet so what do I know.

did you even look at their balance sheet? Does nobody on Veeky Forums do proper DD before trading stock?

viagrandad
viagrandad

How are fellow biz/nessmans going to play that student loan bubble?

hairygrape
hairygrape

@viagrandad
I'm not sure you can play it, since most student loans are government Direct loans. I don't think there's a way you can short them.

I saw this story from Bloomberg earlier today saying hedge funds aren't able to bet against the subprime auto loan market either, since banks aren't willing to help put together that sort of trade. There may not be an opportunity for a "Big Short" in subprime auto or student loans like there was in housing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/some-hedge-funds-want-to-make-subprime-auto-loans-next-big-short

Methnerd
Methnerd

@takes2long

I saw a mortgage officer making 220k, pretty much proof.

eGremlin
eGremlin

@ZeroReborn
Which is why new housing starts stagnated since January 2015?

King_Martha
King_Martha

@Spazyfool
What is the value of the housing economy and how is it different fromantic the value of the mobile industry?

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