The Turtle Traders Experiment

Illusionz
Illusionz

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Million_Dollar_Traders

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Complete_TurtleTrader

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ciY8u04Kk

two weeks training novices in the science of trading and then give them each $1 million to invest

Why isn't there an American reality TV version of this? I would watch the shit out of it!

All urls found in this thread:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Million_Dollar_Traders
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Complete_TurtleTrader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ciY8u04Kk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--H8SY334Zw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZgV0fWGWmM
Fuzzy_Logic
Fuzzy_Logic

@Illusionz

Thanks for this OP

Sharpcharm
Sharpcharm

@Illusionz
Fantastic show. But it would probably show just how shitty traders are. That and people would complain that their gambling with other peoples money of fucking up the economy ect. Too many libs

StonedTime
StonedTime

I know what I'm watching tonight. Fuck Game of Bros.

PurpleCharger
PurpleCharger

@Illusionz
fine line when it comes to being human beings
doesn't understand that money is god will give you no quarter

Carnalpleasure
Carnalpleasure

@Fuzzy_Logic
@Sharpcharm
@StonedTime

Imagine this TV concept in 2017/2018 starring Trump after he loses the election.

"Trump's Traders"

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@StonedTime
Are you really chinese?

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

Every brokerage house and financial advisor in the world would seek to shut this down. Last thing they want to more public attention to the folly of individual stock picking. Indexing is already killing them -- this would be the deathknell.

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

@Illusionz
this is the fucking stupidest show ever
antol kriel is a fucking luckbox

traders just trade naked shares

If they were trading naked shares, they were destined to lose. They couldn't have been taught how to trade complex derivatives in such a short amount of time, either.

whereismyname
whereismyname

3rd Day in. 2008 mortgage crisis happens. Fucking great.

Spamalot
Spamalot

@Illusionz
Why isn't there an American reality TV version of this? I would watch the shit out of it!

Probably too old to be of interest to a general audience.

The era in which the first systems were applied to a market of traders who traded by gut feel is forever gone. (The next era was "the people who understood Black-Scholes and the people who didn't") Skipping a few eras, the current era is probably "people who can build AIs and people who can't."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--H8SY334Zw

Relevant documentary about the last few people in Chicago who traded with their guts.

Make no mistake, the Turtles were a phenomenon that would have made an awesome movie (reality TV didn't exist back then) but they were at the time so secretive (and rightfully so) that they didn't want or need the exposure.

You could make the movie today, but people would laugh at the idea that a human could do it. (Or at the notion that the humans would only have to compete against other humans.)

It's like the Seinfeld show in which half the episodes plots could have been solved in 30 seconds if smartphones had existed. Fun show in its day, but nobody would believe it in 2016.

whereismyname
whereismyname

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZgV0fWGWmM

Got turned to this one. Holy shit these are the people I'm trading against!

Carnalpleasure
Carnalpleasure

@whereismyname
Holy shit these are the people I'm trading against!

nope they're not, at least not most of the time... the people you're trading against are the people (or rather computers) providing liquidity.

these people taking random, short term, directional punts represent a small % of trades. Retail investors represent a larger portion - unless you're actively providing liquidity you're not likely crossing with them very often.

Emberburn
Emberburn

@Illusionz
turtle trading worked as there was an edge in trend following and at the time that edge could be exploited via a simple system

there is still an edge in trend following, however that edge is now smaller and to exploit it well tends to require greater sophistication - funds like Winton, AHL, Aspect etc.. have consistently managed billions over several years via trend following systems - though the minor adjustments they make to their system are the results of continuous research by teams of PhD level statisticians/quants

takes2long
takes2long

@Emberburn
So what hope is there for person trading from home?

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

@Illusionz
I saw this years ago and decided to watch it again yesterday, so coming across this thread today was a fun coincidence.

OT, though, the whole experiment was absurd. The fight promoter (one of the characters) was posting on a forexfactory forum before the final episode came out and said that they were mostly taught technical analysis (Elliot wave, Fibb, trendlines). Being taught how to trade is debatable in itself, but doing so in 2 weeks is nothing short of absurd. There's also loads for lip service about the 1 million dollars they were given to trade but I think the most they ever played with was 500k.
Also, most of them where hedging stocks and expecting them to show a profit by the end of the day and never once did the supervisor came out and set them straight on expectations.

On the bright side, it was good to learn about Anton Kreil and his trading teaching program. I found a few links a few months back where someone had uploaded Kreils PTM course which gave me an interesting view into the thought process of hedge fund managers. Not much information on idea generation was actually given, though.
Money management wise it was interesting as well but didn't really suit my philosophy as I'm an o'Neil disciple.

girlDog
girlDog

@takes2long

None

Stark_Naked
Stark_Naked

@Carnalpleasure
I don't mean Specifically taking the opposite of my trades.

I might be wrong, but the arbitrageurs and computers, I count like pass through entities. Sure they take a few pennies, and get the bid ask spreads tight.

as far as real price movement and the real value in the market it comes from, either the middle class folks and the big fish.

farquit
farquit

@girlDog
Someone had a bad time in the markets

This show was retarded, these people top emotional and no expertise. Buddy gave 1m of capital and probably made more than 1m off this show, so it paid off for him. These people need extensive knowledge about technicals, fundamentals, quantitative analysis etc. Before they can make bank
Fuckers choosing stocks to buy "because I like them" like Nike, puma, Adidas. Of course you're gonna flop. The individual investor at home can make money, the first step is not being a cuck who goes to biz for every stupid shit to be reaffirmed that stock picking is a meme but cryptos are guaranteed riches. Smh

RavySnake
RavySnake

@farquit
He said in the last episode he was down 1% off the "traders". While in his personal trading he was down 2%. So he was out 10k.

But yeah it was bad. Every time they were asked for an opinion, it was muh feels, muh morals, muh trees.

They didn't portray anything about what the single mom did.
What the fuck was pooinloo and hippy's malfunction why did they walk?

Also old man had the touch of death, it would have been great if one guy just watched and did the exact opposite but larger every time.
He was like "everything I touch is wrong" and fighter was like "yup"

What would you give to go back to the day fannie and freddie hit 0

TechHater
TechHater

@RavySnake
Exactly, there's no room for morals. It was volatile times but that's a hell lot of opportunity they didn't capitalize shit off of. The old man was retarded, so was that army buddy who didn't place any trades for the longest time. Took no positions and finally waited and found the "Holy grail" strategy of buying one bank and shorting another. When he finally did it, both positions moved against him. Haha what a cuck.

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

@BlogWobbles
taught technical analysis (Elliot wave, Fibb, trendlines).
amusing because anton on youtube talks about how TA is complete bullshit.

haveahappyday
haveahappyday

@Stark_Naked
it comes from bigger fish than these guys, they merely add a little to the general noise - but in a wider sense you're right

Fuzzy_Logic
Fuzzy_Logic

Can't believe I hadn't seen this before!

Stark_Naked
Stark_Naked

@AwesomeTucker
anton traded in a different era

Skullbone
Skullbone

Would be fun watching them lose all that money.

likme
likme

@whereismyname
black trader
we wuz A TYCOON! manifesto

hairygrape
hairygrape

My college does this with senior level econ classes, but with less money involved. The classes that do it are competitive as fuck.

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