This is why you buy

TreeEater
TreeEater

This is why you buy ...

All urls found in this thread:
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/from-theory-to-practice/episodes/the-short-side-stocks-bonds-06-20-2016
PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

... and this is why you hold.

DeathDog
DeathDog

my man, preaching to the choir

JunkTop
JunkTop

sauce

CodeBuns
CodeBuns

any benefit in taking up my company's stock option to buy at a 20% discount?

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

@TreeEater
@PackManBrainlure
Past returns are not indicative of future results.

haveahappyday
haveahappyday

@StrangeWizard
Past returns are not indicative of future results.
This is very true for individual stocks, forex, options, day-trading, swing trading, momentum trading, algorithmic trading, cryptocurrencies, and speculative investments.

However, once you understand the reasons WHY the S&P 500 performs the way it does in these charts, then you'll understand that for markets as a whole, past performance can indeed be indicative of future results.

askme
askme

@haveahappyday
However, once you understand the reasons WHY the S&P 500 performs the way it does in these charts, then you'll understand that for markets as a whole, past performance can indeed be indicative of future results.
The reason lately has been injected liquidity from the central banks. Don't act like this decade long market since 2008 is organic growth

Inmate
Inmate

@CodeBuns
Absolutely. Just sell as soon as they let you and reinvest the proceeds to your standard asset allocation.

Remember, you don't want to bet both your investments and your paycheck on the same company.

lostmypassword
lostmypassword

@Inmate
thanks user I never knew what to do about that offer; cuz it seems like a good deal but I figured "would I put up this money if it wasn't offered at the discount?" so I never went forward with it
we do good business in our particular area of the healthcare market but there have been 9 figure lawsuits before so I was always nervous about that aspect

Gigastrength
Gigastrength

doctored images to seem liek wothy knwoedlge sources?

Techpill
Techpill

@askme
since 2008
Um, the data set here goes back to 1871. Fuck off with your grade-school 8 year market analysis. It's both wrong and inapplicable.

@Inmate
you don't want to bet both your investments and your paycheck on the same company
Good advice. Also pay attention to HOW they calculate the pricing. They don't sell it to you at the current market price minus 20%. They'll use an average price looking back something like 90 days or more. If there has been big moves in the price, then even the discounted price may be bad.

Emberburn
Emberburn

@Gigastrength
doctored images to seem liek wothy knwoedlge sources?
Well, the data comes from Robert Shiller, the Yale professor who happens to be a Nobel Laureate and one of the leading economists and financial researchers in the world. It's also public information, considering it's the S&P 500 we're talking about here.

Whether that counts as "wothy knwoedlge" I'll leave to you,. user.

StonedTime
StonedTime

@Techpill
I'm not saying your data is wrong. What I am saying is that the current market is inflated from central bank manipulation since 2008. All time highs are fake and shouldn't be seen as a good investment now.
Bears will be bears.

eGremlin
eGremlin

@Techpill
thanks as well; I will have to read about it when I get to work....most of the intranet has to be viewed on company computers

PurpleCharger
PurpleCharger

@StonedTime
All time highs are fake
Markets trade at or near all-time highs on 25% of ALL trading days, historically speaking for last 80 years. For you to claim that current market levels are "inflated" belies the fact that the natural state of the market is rising. Since 1926, equity markets have risen in 65 of 90 years. That has nothing to do with "central bank manipulation."

History didn't begin in 2008, and bankers aren't conspiring against you. If you want to be pessimistic about the markets -- despite ALL available evidence to the contrary -- that's fine. But keep the /pol/ and /x/ bullshit off this board.

Nojokur
Nojokur

@PurpleCharger
Are those 25% of all trading days the result of central banks injecting liquidity into the markets? Is that after 10 years of QE and negative interest rates?

Can you provide to Veeky Forums why these actions are not only ethical, but also sustainable for the timeline that you have projected from last historical returns?

idontknow
idontknow

We in the US time heals all wounds.

the Asian and European markets go back longer, why not use their data.

@PurpleCharger
than bears are right 25% of the time.

The best time to make sure you're getting good prices is during a down market.

hairygrape
hairygrape

@PurpleCharger
all time highs are fake
remember all the articles about $100 barrels of oil when it first happened
they said one guy bought like 10 just to be the first ever; and he paid like 14 dollars above market value just so that there would be an article about it

and now we're only dealing with cheap oil because of the iran deal

Deadlyinx
Deadlyinx

@Nojokur
Is that after 10 years of QE
QE in the US ran from 2009-2014, so approximately 5 years total.

You're a fucking idiot, and not worth more of my time. Come back when you get some basic knowledge about the markets and stop parroting /pol/ memes.

@idontknow
than bears are right 25% of the time
That's a pretty shitty track record. Thanks for proving my point.

Hmm, would I rather follow the strategy that's 100% successful in the long-run, or 25% successful in the short-run?

Nude_Bikergirl
Nude_Bikergirl

@Deadlyinx
I'm not disagreeing with you. We should be in the markets. And indices are pretty goat.

would I rather?
depends on the returns, and the risk.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/from-theory-to-practice/episodes/the-short-side-stocks-bonds-06-20-2016

@Deadlyinx
if the short returns are >4x the returns of being long, than it still makes sense to be short if you can hold the position.

King_Martha
King_Martha

@Nude_Bikergirl
if the short returns are >4x the returns of being long, than it still makes sense to be short if you can hold the position.
Fair point, but history says it's just a hypothetical. bear markets tend to be brief and have notably smaller valleys than the peaks of their bull brethren.

girlDog
girlDog

@Deadlyinx
QE is still ongoing in Europe. Because otherwise the euro goes bye bye and all of southern europe goes bankruptcy.

5mileys
5mileys

Actually, yesterday was when you buy; but you're in the right ballpark.

takes2long
takes2long

@5mileys
god the day that UK separates from the EU is going to be baaaaaaaaad

askme
askme

@King_Martha
the definitions in your chart are a little screwy.

Peak to Trough even the most severe moves in the Market run to 50% haircuts.

Your chart is starting the "bear market" after the 20% haircut.

You're discounting 40% of the move.

Of course the Ups are going to be bigger than the downs if you measure it like that.

Do you have this same chart at a more reasonable say 5%.

iluvmen
iluvmen

@takes2long

I don't think so. The only reason it tanked last Friday is because the "smart money" guessed wrong on Brexit and had to scramble to cut their losses.

Once people get used to the idea, Brexit won't have any more effect on the market as a whole (though it will to certain individual stocks)

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

@CodeBuns
Yeah, unless your company is a real dog.

Read the fine print. In mine I get the discount, and when an allocation is made I get a period of time ( within a year I think) I am garenteed to get at least the discount price I paid for it. So little risk.

Only downside is its a pain in the ass, specifically at tax time.

VisualMaster
VisualMaster

@CouchChiller
did your employer send you any form so that you can submit the information in your income taxes?

ZeroReborn
ZeroReborn

@TreeEater
h-hi hi. Question: what if I want to retire and enjoy wealth before I'm 65 years old? What I don't want 45 years of wageslavery?

Dreamworx
Dreamworx

@girlDog
It doesn't matter. Shills are literally coming in and saying "Everything is fine, buy, buy, buy".

Notice how the user didn't address the implications of central banks and their market liquidity. The user even had the audacity to say QE stoped in 2014, and inferring our markets are organic and healthy.

Lord_Tryzalot
Lord_Tryzalot

@takes2long

the day that UK separates from the EU
There's no such thing.

The day the UK declares Article 50 may be bad. Everything else is a years-long process.

Inmate
Inmate

@askme
The definitions are the same for both directions. At worst, the chart is a simplification because it assumes a binary condition (bear/bull). But for what it shows, it's fair and accurate,

@ZeroReborn
What I don't want 45 years of wageslavery?
Kneepads. You'll get there, $5 at a time.

@Dreamworx
Stop samefagging in every thread. Using different IDs just makes you come across as a desperate faggot.

SniperGod
SniperGod

@Inmate

phone, tablet, multiple pcs and different means of internet access through out the day...

Would you prefer I tripfag since you're so caught up on which ID is me?

you're still in denial I see... won't address the multi-trillion dollar CB elephant in the room

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

@SniperGod
Post IDs are based on IP, not devices. Stop pretending you're anything but a samefagging NEET who pirates the neighbor's wifi in order to shitpost on Veeky Forums.

Soft_member
Soft_member

stocks

What is this 1994

Illusionz
Illusionz

@New_Cliche
and different means of internet access through out the day...

deny, deny, deny you central banking shill!!!

Emberburn
Emberburn

@TreeEater

Try that on the jap market

Firespawn
Firespawn

@Inmate
Fair and accurate. No You're artificially timing the market and increasing the returns while understating the risk.

"A bull market is measured from the lowest close, after the market has fallen 20% or more."

You're painting the very bottom. like 3 people in the world might get the bottom price. the chart tells a fucked up story.

@Deadlyinx
25% all time highs. That's only when they were 100% right. Markets can fall from any point not just all time highs.
Markets movement is 50/50, and arguably with your drift 47/53
so you get a 6% edge being long for 40 years.

You can increase your edge significantly by timing the top and bottom quintiles of price.

There were two successful traders in Ben Grahams book, the professional and the passive.

Supergrass
Supergrass

What is survivorship bias?

FastChef
FastChef

@Firespawn
Are you serious coming into a buy-and-hold thread and suggesting that market timing works? That's some serious edge, user.

Do your homework.

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