Assuming I don't take stupid risks, and exercise caution, is it possible to make consistent money through gambling?

Assuming I don't take stupid risks, and exercise caution, is it possible to make consistent money through gambling?
Or am I guaranteed to lose?

Other urls found in this thread:

learntobeyourownboss.com/arbitrage-betting-opportunities
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

Which gambling? If you're betting against the house, the house always ends up ahead eventually.

If you're playing something like poker, then maybe.

Over a long enough time line with enough samples, you will lose against the house. Table limits guarantee this.

I'd say poker is the only game where you could make a profit long term, but you'd need to invest a significant amount of time learning to play the game.
There's a lot to know about how to play what hand from which position while considering the types of opponents at your table. It's not "just math" as shitters will try and tell you.

You are absolutely gauranteed to lose.

Everyone who gambles loses, 100% of the time always and forever.

Everyone who invests in stocks loses.

If you sit on your money, inflation eats you.

If you start a business it will fail.

We're all going to die.

poker is beatable by normal humans up to like 1/2 online but it'll take a year of consistent study to get good enough to win.

Depends on what you're gambling on. You MIGHT be able to pull it off on sports or horses if you spent as much time studying it like a full time job. At the tables, forget it.

1/2 live tables are easy as fuck and you can make a living wage on them

online is bullshit don't even try

Yeah, but the lottery is a good bet, right?

>gambling
It's pretty much a science, you can select the form of gambling that suits your projected loses. Sports betting and the track are typically the slowest ways to bleed out, you get about 90% of your money back if you are good, lotteries at the other end of the spectrum are about 10% then everything in between. Casinos are built to make so much money per square foot if you are into the science of it all.

poker you can make consistent returns

all other casinos game you will lose in the long run, stay away

OP if you want to gamble at a casino learn ways to beat the casino. Watch the payouts on slot machines and if Noone has won money in a while it is set to payout. Learn to count card which is not hard. The hard part is counting cards in a way that is not obvious. You often need partners to get counting cards to work and casinos combat this by using 8 or more decks of cards. Craps is the casino game with the highest chances of payout of any legitimarely played casino game besides if you know how to count cards.
Roulette will eat your money over time unless you somehow can build a machine and hide it that relies on physics formulas to determine what part of the board a ball will land in depending on where the ball was dropped and how long it takes for the roulette table to complete a rotation. Or you know you could just keep doubling your bet on red until your win your initial bet back as profit... but that can be dangerous and casinos usually have betting limits to prevent variance from destroying their profits when people hit it big once in a while.

The thing with casinos is their games work like scratch off lottos or mega millions. Probability dictates the house will win in any gambling situation which it is always advised to learn how to get an edge over the house. It is not illegal to count cards or devise a machine that can calculate winning bets for you. However casinos reserve the right to throw anyone out or ban anyone for any reason so you better learn how to stay under the radar. If you win enough money and are caught you can even get a worldwide casino ban. If you are smart and study stocks you can win money in the stock market.

Ill keep saying
Wizard of odds
Till you suckers learn

something in which the odds are stacked only partly towards the house, and more on a player-to-player basis, has more potential for profit on account of the fact that other players are typically not as consistently expert in economics and statistics as to warrant a constant odds against you winning some money. in other words, humans fuck up, get rash, panic, get scared, get confident etc and this impairs judgement, especially where money is concerned, and more so if its your source of income. when the whole table is making silly mistakes, that's when you can rake in money. even when the whole table is fairly proficient at the game, you still have a better shot than against the house.

if you play something like a one armed bandit you are definitely going to lose money. the house is operating on an optimized business model designed by statisticians, accounting for more factors than you could even think of, in order to provide the highest possible profit to them, and they implement it in such a way as to keep people coming back ie affordable yet substantial payouts.

pick the game which has the least house involvement and relies more on out-judging other players, if you are good at that kind of thing. the house always wins, always, but the house doesn't have the opportunity to take all your money as consistently as other, human, players.

im a poker pro
ama bud

the pros just exploit situations where they can wager within the confines of a situation where the player has the mathematical edge. over enough samples it always eventually balances out to what it is suppose to be. usually that is manifested in the house's 52% or so edge for various games and situations.

so in sports that is getting a +ev wager which has an accurately as possible predicted percent chance of winning cross-referenced to the payout and if you have the edge by that measure then it is not the house having the edge.

many professional gamblers will look for slot machines or video poker machines that are either programmed poorly mathematically or that have some feature as a draw for people to play it where they are the ones with a 53 or so percent chance to win and they will just keep playing it over and over and over until the universe balances out enough how it will for them there.

Yes, you have two possible routes...

Become a decent poker player and play low stakes cash games at a casino (not online - competition is much harder).

OR

Take advantage of arbitrage betting opportunities to secure consistent winning on sports bets no matter the outcome...

learntobeyourownboss.com/arbitrage-betting-opportunities

And once again

>dude everything's rigged xD

How insightful

hahaha
thanks user, i needed a good laugh

you'd be surprised at how far rigging goes. not in the sense of cards being dealt a certain way, just certain horses in a stable

If your intuition is so reliable as to make a living on gambling you should just trade stocks and asset manage and you will be the next Warren Buffet.

As someone who's done sports betting for years, anything can happen when you bet on the spread. See: the 2016 wildcard game between the Vikings and Seahawks.

I play Blackjack most weekends to bring in extra cash. I play on a $25 table at a casino in Australia. I bet minimum to start with. If I have 3 losses in a row, I'll jack my 4th bet to $100. If I lose on the 4th, I leave the table. Never chase your bets, you will always lose. Also don't be greedy. If you having a great game continue past being up $600- $700. If it's an average game of back and forth and you're up by $600- $700, leave and go home. Always remember that $600- $700 for a couple of hours of your time, is as much as some people make in a week.
Also, only play what you're willing to lose.

is this a serious question

Uh.......yeah.
I, uh, also hear that the quickest way to da moon is by using "Robin the Hood".
Something, something, CERU my Nubian brothers

I get the general strategy behind it. What is the lowest you'll stay/hold? Does it depend on the one dealers card that's facing up?

Mathfag here.

Statistically, if you just play the casino's games of chance, no, it is not possible to consistently make money. For most casinos, blackjack is the game which has the lowest house edge, but it still favours the casino, even when playing optimally. Card counting used to be a legitimate strategy to turn the tables in your favour, but these days casinos mitigate that by using multiple decks and reshuffling after every hand, which is part of the reason why they're much more lenient regarding card counting these days (because it just doesn't work anymore). Most other games have a higher house edge, meaning you lose more money over a large number of bets.
If you're playing games of skill, then absolutely, you can consistently make money (as long as you're better than the other players).

You could also do sports betting, which might be a legitimate way of consistently making money through the use of arbitrage.
Arbitrage happens when the odds set by two different bookmakers differ enough that placing a bet on outcome A happening with one bookie and placing another bet on outcome A not happening with the other bookie results in a guaranteed profit.
For example (you will never see odds this drastically different), bookie 1 says that the odds for A are 1:1 (if you bet $100 and A happens, you get your $100 back and also get another $100). Bookie 2 says the odds for A not happening are 2:1 (if you bet $100 and A does not happen, you get your $100 back, plus $200). Here, you should place a $100 bet on A happening with bookie 1 and any bet between $50 and $100 (exclusive) on A not happening with bookie 2. If A happens, you lose less than $100, but gain $100 from the bet, thus ending up net positive. If A does not happen, you lose $100, but gain more than $100 from the bet, thus ending up net positive as well.
Arbitrage is becoming more and more rare these days because bookmakers have been making odds closer and closer across the board.
1/2

2/2
However, my father knows a man who made money off of arbitrage in the mid-2000s. He says that he just looked at the odds for the very small sports (field hockey or something, I dunno), where there will be few bettors so the bookmakers will likely be less consistent on their odds pricing.

Finally, if you live in the US, you can use PredictIt or other betting services to bet on non-sports things. PredictIt is US and world politics, and if you follow this closely then you should do well (I have a friend who just graduated high school a few months ago who made $200 in a week on this site). You can also bet on other random stuff frequently, like Big Brother.

For these type of odds-based bets, if you can't find arbitrage and aren't completely certain of an outcome (technically you never should be), then I recommend using the Kelly criterion (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion).


No, of course the lottery isn't a good bet.

>the lottery isn't a good bet.
How about Keno?
Or Plinko?

If I remember correctly, Keno has one of the highest house edges among all casino games.
I'm not familiar with Plinko.

don't bother with table games other than poker (and even then)

its only good as an easy way to throw away your money, it is a lot of fun though so once you start you can get addicted to it easily. The allure of easy money and when you're behind the thought that just one lucky deal could win you your money back really taps into something primal.

I've wasted far too much money at the blackjack tables that I could have better spent elsewhere, just stay away.

Its not even about that. The site literally tells you what you can expect to win/lose over a large enough period of time for each game.
It just so happens that there is no casino game that has a positive expected outcome.

B-but, what if I win. I just need like 25-30k..how the fuck do I start to make my money work for me when I don't make enough to invest properly and I have no real skills to sell?

In many live casinos the rake is so high, that a decent winning player can become a losing player. And you play maybe 20 hands per hour. Online is the only way to go if you are serious about making $ in poker.

sorry but using a casino to get rich quick is little more than a fantasy, you're much likelier to end up in worse shape than you are now

Those electronic poker tables where you sit down and it deals electronically.
Went on a cruise ship and it had a preflop rake, and overall rake of like 9%.
So bad, they were getting theirs.

Yeah some casinos take rake plus an hourly tax as well.
Only go to a casino to have fun and blow some cash, if you are into that lifestyle.

I don't even care if it's illegal. I need it. I've been looking into some fucked up shit to get started but fuck once you go there's no looking back.

What the hell do you need this money so badly for anyway? Wealth is nice and all but its not worth going to prison, get a hold of yourself.

Its for my own fuck up. It's embarrassing to say even on a Japanese image board, it's so bad that I've been contemplating suicide on a day to day basis for 6 years. It isn't for wealth, though. It's for a vast improvement in my waking life, professionally and socially.

Counting card in Blackjack gives a 0.5-2% marginal for you depending on the technique. For the other games, house has an advantage.

well now that you've built it up this much you have to tell

you are anonymous after all

You're right I'm a pussy. I need emergency dental care right now. The pain is bad, but psychologically it's debilitating. I can't laugh, smile, even open my mouth to raise my voice for something. It's bad, really bad. I would love a fucking handout but it would be even better knowing I conquered the most excruciating phase of my life.. Whether it be legal or not.

>Watch the payouts on slot machines and if Noone has won money in a while it is set to payout

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Do you have any experience using Rebelbetting?

how the fuck do you not have insurance

Even learning basic-strategy in BJ there's always a house edge. And those fuckers shuffle autoamticly on every hand everywhere now..

I don't see how can one beat the casino on BJ with counting cards anymore. Of course, without using ""other methods""

I'm looking at playing at Melbourne's Crown.

PLaying the way you say doesn't sound much different that doing the same schema of betting on roulette though

Hadn't heard of it until now, but after looking into it, it seems neat, althought admittedly I'm skeptical. I imagine that it wouldn't be hard to check their software before placing a bet though, so I might try it out.

>arbitrage betting

I make money with sports betting for over ten years now and I advice everyone to not even try this shit.
It is not worth the risk and the time you need to invest in this betting method. Bookies can just limit you and they will do it, especially if you bet thousands of dollars and win. I never met one successful arbitrage better.

How do you make money from sports betting then? Matched betting or just knowing a shitload about the teams etc.?

I only bet on one sport, football (soccer).

Mostly it comes down to knowledge of teams and the variables involved with each individual team (i.e Injured/suspended players, current form, playstyle) .

I won big on the Iceland vs England match, even though England are theoretically a superior team, the manager sucked, his formation sucked and clearly the players werent that passionate about playing to win. One England player even said he'd rather be partying than playing.

Iceland however you could see their passion, most players play for shit clubs and this was clearly the biggest occasion of their footballing career. When compared to the chronic chokers of England, it was a simple bet.

So indepth knowledge is needed to win consistently.

Also to be quite honest, anybody with an objective mind could see that Iceland would win. England is the single most overrated team in international football. They've won one World Cup 50 years ago, have never won a Euro Cup or even made it to the finals, couldn't beat Russia or Slovakia, their 2014 World Cup performance was 26th of 32 (which included a tie with Costa Rica). Frankly, betting against England is a smart bet.

Do you know if there's a way to disguise your identity consistently when trying to do arbitrage? I have a feeling that, the decreasing odds aside, the main obstacle to making money from this is the fact that they'd just ban your account when you started making too much money, but if you had several accounts even on the same website, you might still be able to get away with it for a while.
The main problem with that is that you would eventually need to provide some form of ID, and while I haven't figured out a way past that, I'm sure SOMEONE out there has come up with a solution.

You will never be able to use arbitrage on one website. Arbitrage uses the odds differences between MULTIPLE bookies (e.g. Betfair and William Hill), because one bookmaker will never be stupid enough to have odds on one match that guarantees a profit.

I know, I'm talking about having multiple accounts on multiple sites, as opposed to just one per site.

The best two games you can play for having the odds mostly in your favor are Blackjack, which is against the house, and Craps, which is played against other people.

Everything else is more likely to fuck you in the ass. And unless you're good at it, poker will likely be a losing game for you.

>Craps, which is played against other people
Wot

There hasn't been any money in poker for nearly decade. Everyone is good now. Too many sharks not enough fish.

Why would you do this though? I see absolutely no benefit for it.

So if one account gets banned, you can still use the site with another.

Don't gamble, stupid.

>Everyone who gambles loses, 100% of the time always and forever.
If it worked that way, it wouldn't exist. It's just that your odds are shit and the house is stacked against you. There are maybe 1-2 cardgames you can questionably/ethically you could push beyond a 50/50 w/l with if you were a mathematical genius and dedicated your life towards it. Not worth it.

>Everyone who invests in stocks loses.
See above. Most people who invest wind up doing worse than the entire market though. It's statistically safer to just invest straight into an entire market than memeing around on stocks.

>If you sit on your money, inflation eats you.
True

>If you start a business it will fail.
Depends on the business, but mostly true. Always wanted to open a restaurant, but I'll never bother when the failure rate is nearing 99%.

>We're all going to die.
Also true.

i feel bad for being funemployed, i predicted italy to beat belgium (because belgium were ranked #1 even though its just stat padding) and i thought it was the lock of the year (and it was) and i just got fuming mad that i missed out. i think italy was priced @ 3.8 to win or something of the sort, and I would of jumped on @ 3 just because international football tournaments have bad odds from yuppies not knowing anything about sports

Why would an account get banned?

Oh for fuck's sake, are you serious?

Yes, I am. I don't think you understand how arbitrage works, nor how betting sites work.

Card counting doesn't take being a math genius to do, actually.

Card counting doesn't work anymore. Casinos use multiple decks and reshuffle after every hand.

Current casino employee here, I work as a security supervisor. EVERYONE LOSES no exception even the best poker players have 1-3 winning days out of a week, the rake will kill your winnings no matter what. You will always lose unless you are a mathematical genius and even then your odds are pretty bad. I have seen genius level millionares lose the clothes on their backs in an attempt to recouperate losses. All people who play lose gambling along with lotterys are a tax on the poor and the stupid. DONT FUCKING DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!

Go on then. Explain.

Because you're betting on multiple sites, your win patterns won't be suspicious to one site in the least. For the sake of this discussion, let's just assume that there are only 2 bookies. For one, your strategy will more than likely match millions of other bettors, betting on A happening. We'll just say that this bookie is always optimistic and gives good odds for A. For the other, your betting patterns will match millions of other bettors, betting on A not happening. This bookie is not as optimistic on A.
You will mostly win, sometimes lose, with the first bookie, mostly lose, sometimes win, with the second. Nothing suspicious.

Then how do people get caught?

I have never heard of anyone getting caught pursuing arbitrage. Just don't make exorbitantly large bets and you'll be fine I guess.

Cruise ship population is so bad though, pretty easy to beat 9% though whether you have enough days to do it is another question.

You've never heard stories of people's accounts being limited?

Not really, I don't really frequent gambling circles. I only know one guy who ever tried arbitrage, and he made money off of it. Again, just don't bet a fucking ridiculous amount of money or something.

Nigger this shit happens constantly. Just go on ANY site dedicated to arbitrage and they'll tell you that's an inevitability after a certain amount of time, even if you keep your bets relatively small. That's why I was asking about creating separate accounts on the same betting site, to ensure that you can continue to bet reasonable amounts after you've been limited to miniscule amounts.

Wouldn't say I'm a pro gambler but have done okay in the past 3 years (around £20k profit, though could've made more had I not followed big tipsters early on and got several 365's banned in quick succesion, theres an art to it...

Anyway I'll post this from a previous thread about gambling, any questions I'd be happy to answer:

Yeah I've had loads of accounts limited, opened in friends/ families names and had those limited as well. Bookmakers are more likely to limit or close accounts if they detect certain betting patterns, the most obvious being you follow a succesfull tipster or pool (I forget the name for these, but they work slightly differently from tipsters) other things is if you are just betting on low liquidity games ie, Russian 3rd division, which was known as a bit of a gold mine on bet365 a few years back when they could not price it correctly to save their lives.
They also limit for arbitrage traders but I have no experience of this myself. Generally you can make £10k betting on the English Premier League and they are unlikely to limit you because they fully expect variance to kick in and you to be -EV, infact you can be limited without making any money. Most bookmakers keep an eye on certain accounts, interestingly if you open up an account as a female they instantly monitor this account because they know people will get their gf's, mothers etc.. to open accounts on their behalf's.

The most likely to limit and the quickest is Bet365, but it's also the quickest to make money with because of the huge amounts of markets and amount they're willing to lay, a pro gambler would probably be willing to pay £150-£200 for a "clean" bet365 account.
William Hill is pretty decent, forget the lays as it's been so long since I've had a clean one but they are decent, few hundred on low league AH markets at least, also they never limit losing accounts, one of the few to do this.
I made a bit of money out of sports betting, could've made more, haven't done well in asia or pinnacle, and exchanges can't really get much money down. But if you have any questions about expectations or whatnot I'd be happy to answer, gambling has always interested me, I'm a part time poker player nowadays, prefer it to sports betting and is definitely more of a long term viable option.

How much do you think you could make off of arbitrage in a year, assuming you put full effort into it and had multiple accounts after your other ones get limited?

Also, how did you manage to make separate accounts on the same betting site?

I've not really looked at arbitage too much but from what I'm aware of most of the arbs are done with exchange prices, thus you won't be able to get too much down, but I think a few hundred a month is perhaps achievable, having a background in actual sports betting arbing does seem like a wasted account to me but I guess some people don't like to think to make money.
>Also, how did you manage to make separate accounts on the same betting site?
Set them up in friends and families names, also if you set up a skrill in their name it's easier to get money in and out. Knowing how to open new accounts safely and keep them open for as long as possible is something you have to learn.

>is it possible to make consistent money through gambling
yes the house always does

Premierbet
CanBet
666bet

The house doesn't always win. Also the house winning doesn't equal everyone who isn't the house losing.

>the house doesn't always win
sure, not every single time, but in the long run, the house always wins.

I gave three examples where the house didn't win lol. "The house always wins" is a pretty dumb phrase by what it implies tbph

You gave 3 betting websites. The phrase "the house always wins" refers to games of chance that one can find in a casino.

People also use it to refer to bookmakers

I've never heard it used in that context, but I won't argue.

Craps is against the house as well.

>they weren't on TEH fix

TEARS
E
A
R
S

This.
It's so simple. If you wan a make money through gambling, just be the house. Dunno how you become a legal casino though

When gambling against a casino, on average you will lose money. Otherwise casinos couldn't turn a profit.

Only way around it is to game the system (card counting or the like) or play against other single people where your individual skill matters more.

>Most people who invest wind up doing worse than the entire market though
>It's statistically safer to just invest
I am now convinced

My math instructor was a doctor of mathematics and said 21 had a 5% chance to win as opposed to all other types of games which were 1%.

He loved to use card counting and shit as real life examples.

I'll sit on 15 if the dealer has a non picture card. Flip at 15-16 if dealer has a picture card. Always split a double number, but never a picture. That's my tip.
I'm not much of a Roulette player, but if your betting Black/Red the strategy would work the same.

I play poker for a living and this is definitely possible with a bit of discipline.
You'll need to grind your way up the stakes though, be prepared to spend 15hours a day watching videos, replaying sessions and playing, if you're ok and run good, in a year you're in 0.5/1

>when you run into KK every time you have QQ
>when you run into the ace high flush every time you have the king high flush
>when you run into the higher straight when you have mid straight
>when you run into a higher set when you flopped top set

teh variance is real

That's bad play. If you're good enough to put money on it, you should be good enough to read a table.

There is no such thing as an 'invested' hand. You can always fold.

Not really true past a certain point. If your opponent is just a bit balanced, often you don't really have the chance. Of course there are occasions where you make mistakes but variance IS a bitch for everyone, there is no way around that

you speak like your results oriented
>you can always fold quads ya know
>i mean, there ARE two aces out there, and he COULD have AA