Bank Run -- Italy

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

Any /biz/nessmen know what's going on?

All urls found in this thread:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-11/eurogroup-head-pledges-to-resist-calls-for-state-aid-for-banks
https://peoplestrusttoronto.wordpress.com/2016/07/09/charting-the-epic-collapse-of-the-worlds-most-systemically-dangerous-bank/
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS
haveahappyday
haveahappyday

@Boy_vs_Girl
shit is falling from the skies. yes, it's a shitstorm

hairygrape
hairygrape

@Boy_vs_Girl
IDS HIBBIDING

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

@hairygrape
Also relevant

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-11/eurogroup-head-pledges-to-resist-calls-for-state-aid-for-banks

Skullbone
Skullbone

@PackManBrainlure
Well. That could get interesting.

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

@PackManBrainlure

Lol the EU is going to murder Italy to save the wider project

StonedTime
StonedTime

Yes.

The Italians sold a bunch of shit called 'sofferenze' to pretty much everybody to keep their banks alive. This has been going on for years now.

Deutsche Bank especially bought a whole lot of the biggest crap known to mankind.

-now it gets juicy-

DB knew that what they bought would holocaust them, so they put everything in investment funds and sold it to the Americans.
The Americans in turn put those funds into other funds and sold it all back to DB.

At this point DB is already fucked beyond belief.

Brexit happens.

That same morning DB fired 3000 bankers to save costs to take the economic blow the English just inflicted. (Er strafe Es!!)

The sofferenze starts to eat the Banca Monte dei Paschi from the inside.
They also pulled almost, if not all, of the other Italian banks into this.

At this point they desperately need a 350 billion euro bail out to keep going.

This bail out sentiment is obviously shared by DB.

This poses a new problem.

The EU has tightened the laws on a possibility of bank bail out since 2008. Also the Dutch are heavily opposed to this.

Nobody knows the impact it will have when this goes, but when it does, it will be massive.
I personally think something like Lehman Brothers times ten.

Be careful out there, boys!
This is it.

eGremlin
eGremlin

@Boy_vs_Girl

it's literally the cover of the economist

BunnyJinx
BunnyJinx

@StonedTime
so how do we make money on this?

Dreamworx
Dreamworx

@StonedTime

Did people learn nothing from CDOs in the 2008 recession?

Mamma mia!

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

@StonedTime
Ty for great material user (no homo). Do you know what those sofferenze loans consist in detail? cannot find satisfying info about them.

Sir_Gallonhead
Sir_Gallonhead

@BunnyJinx
Forex.

Gold. (but make sure you actually have it in possession with certificate)

Silver. (Same as gold)

I recommend forex in gold. Buy Krugerrands and ship them over to SA to sell them. It will yield extra because of the currency rates. When it all recovers, trade your normal randsback to USD or EUR.

Try not to get caught by customs though.

farquit
farquit

Some $200,000,000,000 in bad loans

happy_sad
happy_sad

@Crazy_Nice
@Sir_Gallonhead

I will try to get some inside details from my contacts in the ECB to keep you guys informed.
Will call them right now.

Also, keep in mind that after all this Japan will be next.
The Yen is widely known as a safe reserve currency. So after Brexit and now this, it will remain very high and consume their economy.

They're doomed. So stay away from technology aswel.

cum2soon
cum2soon

You guys are so full of shit. Where is there a bank run in Italy right now, huh?

Emberfire
Emberfire

@StonedTime
Nice post.

It will be pretty interesting to see how this all unravels, simply for the HABBENING meme value.

Flameblow
Flameblow

@cum2soon
Banca Monte dei Paschi.

Do you honestly believe Italy hasn't got any banks?

Good luck with your finances, buddy!

@happy_sad
What I got from the ECB:

The sofferenze are financial investment formulae created by Banca Monte dei Paschi. They basically consist out of bad loans. They sold it to bigger banks to pay for the other loans, just like some cheap ponzi. It's air.

They also said it would probably go down on Monday the 27th of July.
On this date DB has to present their second quarter results to their investors and analysts.
It obviously won't be good.

Brace yourselves.

JunkTop
JunkTop

Lol nobody in italy right now is even talking about this media hoax. How bored can you get?

SniperGod
SniperGod

@cum2soon
@JunkTop
Jesus! You guys DB employees or something?

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

@SniperGod
But it's DB the one who are doing their best to move the spotlight on MPS.

FastChef
FastChef

@Sir_Gallonhead
you say forex; what currency pairs do you mean?
Are you saying all other currencies will rise in relation to USD and EUR?

Spamalot
Spamalot

@FastChef
I mean buy pic related.

farquit
farquit

@StonedTime
literally everything you wrote is completely wrong. I bet you are german

Sharpcharm
Sharpcharm

@farquit
Srsly WHO ARE YOU???

Firespawn
Firespawn

@Sharpcharm
someone who does not get his knowledge from an idiot on Veeky Forums

DeathDog
DeathDog

@Firespawn
You gave 0 facts to elaborate your replies.

PurpleCharger
PurpleCharger

@Flameblow
so on the 27th we're all kill?
mfw shemitah was real

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@DeathDog
not going to lecture idiots about the truth, I am not a spoonfeeder. Geniß deine Lügen.

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

@GoogleCat
*Genieß

Stupidasole
Stupidasole

@Boy_vs_Girl
DON'T WORRY... NOTHING TO SEE HERE... US MARKETS ALL TIME HIGH... YAY!!!

helicopter money
the first wave....

Spazyfool
Spazyfool

@StrangeWizard
Ok tumblr.

cum2soon
cum2soon

@happy_sad
why to ship those krugers to SA.. why not just buy them and sell them anywhere? .. like gold everything will get more expensive

Gigastrength
Gigastrength

@cum2soon
Because their value in SA is higher since they are still a valid currency there and a collectable.

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

where do you safely buy and sell them then SA, that would be pretty risky hah? those customs gotta eat you alive.. at least do you recommend some actual stock prefferably mining, I invested currently in BAR as its rly promising, anything else?

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

@StonedTime
Usual german crook that creates problems and then blames others for it. Pathetic

Supergrass
Supergrass

@StonedTime
we wuz gud boys
we dindu nuffin
https://peoplestrusttoronto.wordpress.com/2016/07/09/charting-the-epic-collapse-of-the-worlds-most-systemically-dangerous-bank/

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

@BlogWobbles
Ask to buy them at some czech bank ofcourse. To sell them in SA, I use my boer contact as a courier.

Garbage Can Lid
Garbage Can Lid

whats your target rate for those coins to bailout hah?

King_Martha
King_Martha

This is great info user. God speed.

Can you gives us clues to your position within the ECB for some veracity?

farquit
farquit

@New_Cliche
@Supergrass
Thank you for sourcing and elaborating.
However, I never stated DB did nothing wrong. I simply objectively stated BMdP 9/11'd DB with their sofferenze. DB was just stupid enough to buy it. There's others too though, not just DB.

DB will have the most significant impact, hence the argument. So next time, please read it well.

w8t4u
w8t4u

@farquit
DB problems come from much earlier and are much bigger than sofferenze from a medium-sized italian bank (which has seized down in size in the last decade a lot). Get real.

Sharpcharm
Sharpcharm

@Garbage Can Lid
After this happens and we are in a new crisis, the likes we haven't seen before, who knows?

I aim optimistically towards 2300 USD (value) a piece on a horizon of 5 years. But that's just speculation ofcourse.

@Garbage Can Lid
I know a few people there personally.

Flameblow
Flameblow

@Sharpcharm
Where can I read more about the current financial system?

I've read quite some books on 2008, but I have no clue as to what's going on right now in the banking industry.

DeathDog
DeathDog

@Flameblow
The way I see it; you can read as many books as you want, you'll still be clueless.

Most economic events are also politically bound, such as Brexit, for example. So you'll need to have a good overview on both economic state and political news.

Follow up on currency fluctuations daily.
Monitor the stock markets daily.
Read a good financial newspaper daily.
Watch the news daily.

A good insight in today's world can get you very far. Read the links. So I kind of have to say: read the world.

Also, try to get to know well placed people in the banking sector. Discuss macroeconomy with these contacts over lunch or some drinks.
Once you submerge more and more in this financial world, you'll learn way more than reading 'How to become a millionaire'.

There's one essay I can recommend you though, so I suggest you start with that.

It's called 'The Fate of Empires' by Sir John Glubb.

CodeBuns
CodeBuns

@DeathDog
That paper was pure shit though. Hurr every empire only last for about 250 or so years, and it has to do with the last generation being lazy and worshipping sports figures instead of war generals hurr.

I mean, it wasn't that bad, but shit. Some soldier lecturing on history. That's the same as me lecturing on cellular biology.

happy_sad
happy_sad

Indeed user. Thank you for spelling out vital information. Godspeed.

Inmate
Inmate

@CodeBuns
It was about the resemblance of empirial nations caused by the human nature. And he was pretty much spot on in that respect.
I recommend it because it encourages to look differently at the world.

Playboyize
Playboyize

nothing really happening here in italy, it's more like germany's problem.

Burnblaze
Burnblaze

OP won't acknowledge this

MPmaster
MPmaster

@Burnblaze
YFW if OP is correct all of the numbers used to generate that sustainability gap are puffed up with absolute bullshit figures completely skewing it beneficially for Italy despite the reality of the situation.

5mileys
5mileys

@MPmaster
yfw you have no idea what you are talking about
if anything the opposite is happening. Continuous german shitflinging that convinces the markets others are in the shitter and not germany

idontknow
idontknow

@Burnblaze
sooo latvia estonia and poland are considered more 'sustainable' than luxembourg uk and the netherlands? maxikek

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

@idontknow
debt-wise, yes

DeathDog
DeathDog

@Poker_Star
still no consideration of the validity of those debt ratings. Inb4 2008 all over again.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@DeathDog
I bet you question the validity of computers because you don't know how to build one, amirite?

viagrandad
viagrandad

@GoogleCat
I question the validity of everything, as in my short 34 years on this Earth I've seen nearly everything people take for granted proven wrong once over. Even the fundamental physical forces themselves have gone for an outstanding joyride of clarity and substantiation in the last few decades. Don't have so much faith in the certainty of numbers.

Snarelure
Snarelure

@viagrandad
still, you are speaking out of ignorance. If you have doubts go and look how people came up with that estimation, but doubting its validity based on your prejudices and baseless assumptions is much worse than believing it at face value, because the people who came up with it at least did their research whereas you didn't... If you were actually 34 years old and been interested in economics for a long time, you would already know that although italian debt has gotten worse because of the eurozone, it was always considered one of the most dependable.
I am sick of this "doubt" attitude complete ignorants only use to deflect blatant truth in favour of their worthless bullshit opinions.

RavySnake
RavySnake

@Inmate
I recommend it because it encourages to look differently at the world.
that should be your goal with every book you read

kizzmybutt
kizzmybutt

it's happening

Fuzzy_Logic
Fuzzy_Logic

@Snarelure
up with it at least did their research whereas you didn't... If you were actually 34 years old and been interested in economics for a long time, you would already know that although italian debt has gotten worse because of the eurozone, it was always considered one of the most dependable.
I am sick of this "doubt" attitude complete ignorants only use to deflect blatant truth in favour of their worthless bullshit opinions.

best of luck with your investments.

Stupidasole
Stupidasole

someone provide visual proof that Italy has a bank run going on...

you can't

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

I'm pretty new to forex and I can't even buy tomorrow but for learning purposes how would I go about making money off this situation? Which currency do I exchange.

Gigastrength
Gigastrength

@StonedTime
Bail-in, though. It's people with accounts that lose out first in Europe

ZeroReborn
ZeroReborn

@happy_sad
The Yen is widely known as a safe reserve currency. So after Brexit and now this, it will remain very high and consume their economy.
I made 5% over the weekend with a Yen short hedge.

@Spamalot
I estimate gold hits $2,500 before 2025.

viagrandad
viagrandad

@Illusionz
man I've been waiting for the shitstorms to start for a long time

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@viagrandad

from 2008?

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

@Need_TLC
See
@Sir_Gallonhead

@Gigastrength
This is correct. Thank you user.

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

Ahahahah, how fun of you

haveahappyday
haveahappyday

@Snarelure
@viagrandad

I am sick of this "doubt" attitude complete ignorants only use to deflect blatant truth in favour of their worthless bullshit opinions.

Kek. The thread was about bad italian loans and that ponzi "i issue debt in the eurozone, it got bought in the eurozone i cannot pay so im going to issue more and ask to bail those who bought my debt in the first place" etc.
Don't you see a correlation between italy being the first of that "sustainability chart" and their aptitudes to produce numbers from their arses?

hairygrape
hairygrape

@haveahappyday
The thread was about bad italian loans and that ponzi "i issue debt in the eurozone, it got bought in the eurozone i cannot pay so im going to issue more and ask to bail those who bought my debt in the first place" etc.
the thread is about OP being full of shit and blaming Monte dei Pashi for the situation of DB, which has nothing to do with it. There's probably hundreds of banks all around Europe who have distributed many more "sofferenze" in the last years. This thread is pure shilling.
Don't you see a correlation between italy being the first of that "sustainability chart" and their aptitudes to produce numbers from their arses?
No because the two have literally nothing to do with each other. Monte dei Paschi is a regional bank you fucking idiot, it's not a big group. How can you even compare it to Lehmann? How can you compare national debt insolvency with the problems of a shitty regional bank and blame on them the mistakes of Deutsche Bank, scare people into believing in a bank run that simply does not exist and even claim this will bring down european economy? Have you ever even opened a fucking economics book? Literally kys underage faggot

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

@hairygrape
You're way too emotional about this. It's not a soccer game. No one is trying to blame anything on anyone we are just trying to see the situation clearer to give ourselves an advantage and to make money out of it faggot.
This thread is shilling as every thread on Veeky Forums, and bank run obviously is not happening. Does not mean that there is no valuable material on it tho. Monte dei pasci is the third retail bank in italia and the oldest bank in the world faggot. It's not a big one but if you just overlook what happens bc you think that actors of the economy are not related and that you can touch one without impacting others ur the underaged summerfag who should open an economy book instead of playing with his aunt dildo.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@StonedTime
Thankyou user

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

@GoogleCat
yeah 2008 never fixed anything, just prolonged what should have happened.

JunkTop
JunkTop

/wsg/thread/1165718#p1182414

SniperWish
SniperWish

@Flameblow
Dont you think the EU knows the systematic relevance of DB with over 52$ trillion in derivatives and leveraged at 40 to 1.

I think theyre gonna bail them out. Even though they stated they dont want to do that again for financial moral reasons.
Nobody learnt from the 2008 crisis

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

@SniperWish
Yesterday the stock price shot in the air after suggesting a 150 billion euro bailout. I think people know about the deadend with DB

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

@BlogWobbles
Wouldn't this make for benefit medium length call options on DB and it's holders?

If not, why not?

Market not behaving in relative to fundamental reality fo the political situation?

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

@Boy_vs_Girl
Hmm all bank stocks went up already quite a lot yesterday and today. It might be too late for the call already. But Im afraid i have not much experience.

I think the problem is more wheter a bailout would help them in the long term. It sure grants temporary liquidity but the banks desperately need a complete makeover. so the teaching will not be there if bailed out and they continue to do bad business.

TurtleCat
TurtleCat

@LuckyDusty

So Lehman Brothers asked for a 400B bailout in 2008, which didn't happen.

DB is now asking 150B for European banks.
Why wouldn't DB be bailed out?
The impact of failure would be bigger, smaller amount of money required, EU depends on this shit.

Not very Veeky Forums savvy, please shed some light.

Skullbone
Skullbone

@TurtleCat
The impact of failure would be bigger, smaller amount of money required, EU depends on this shit.
Not very Veeky Forums savvy, please shed some light.

I'm supposing the bailout happens but market speculation as a result of the occurrences in 2008 drives a direction contrary to previous examples of this reliance on govt support for continued liquidity. Is that an outrageous idea?

Techpill
Techpill

@ZeroReborn
I estimate gold hits $2,500 before 2025.
better sell it then, what an awful performance that is...

Ignoramus
Ignoramus

@TurtleCat
Also wouldn't that indicate a prolongation of a solvency issue? Which means we should be following sage hedge fund manager wisdom and sport credit default swaps or long puts on credit spreads doesn't it?

MPmaster
MPmaster

Who will pay for it? Taxpayers? The EU isn't worth the weight of 47.000 Bruxelles beureaucrats in shit.

iluvmen
iluvmen

How much do you think lisk will hit? Shills should fuck off

I personally think that it will at least be 0.0006

RumChicken
RumChicken

@MPmaster
This.

They asked for 350 billion, not 150.

Also, they plan to get the money from their investors and indeed EU taxes.

This poses a new problem though.
It'll be a 350 billion loss even if they bail in, which will deter new investors and thus also lead to bad economy, meaning even if they get it, they'll still be screwed for the long run.

Ggwp DB.

cum2soon
cum2soon

@Sir_Gallonhead
Don't listen to this idiot.
I'm long GDX calls and up like 500 percent because central banks are retarded.
Derivatives are gud boys who din do nuffin.

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

@StonedTime
DB knew that what they bought would holocaust them, so they put everything in investment funds and sold it to the Americans.
The Americans in turn put those funds into other funds and sold it all back to DB.

HAHA WTF

likme
likme

@iluvmen
kys

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

@cum2soon

Hey are you really up 500%?

I've been holding NUGT since $41 so ive made like 160% profit. Should I be buying calls on NUGT?

Thanks in advance.

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

@TalkBomber
Nah, it has really high premium to buy calls on it. If you want calls go for GDX.
I'm moving out of gold anyways towards a more market neutral strategy since brexit is over.

Methshot
Methshot

@Boy_vs_Girl
Lol.

Good luck out there, buddy!

Gold will go a lot higher in the next 6 months at least. You dumb fuck!

You might also try just burning your banknotes instead.

Evilember
Evilember

DB is going to filed for bankruptcy sometime in August. The EU won't bailout a bank because the US bailout didn't work and it cost them a lot of money while increase the size of the banks. DB assets range into the trillions of dollars.

massdebater
massdebater

@Evilember
Is there really any standup evidence DB will bankrupt? I think they'll just keep siphoning a couple hundred million out of the eurozone as basically they're now hostage. The tax payer will pay one way or another for the banks lunacy.

Evilember
Evilember

@Evilember
They'll release Q2 results on 27th this month. Prepare for panic and have your money ready fpr future long positions

whereismyname
whereismyname

@JunkTop
LOL

kizzmybutt
kizzmybutt

@massdebater
buddy, my dude, 14% of italian loans are nonperforming. FOURTEEN PERCENT. it was barely more than 1% that caused 08.

shit's gonna get ugly

Playboyize
Playboyize

@kizzmybutt
Do you even bother to research the bullshit lies that you tell yourself and others on this board?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS

@Evilember
They don't have "trillions of dollars of assets" on their books. They do, however, have trillions of dollars of derivatives exposure on their books. This is a liability when it's costing you money, not an asset. Don't believe everything you hear.

Flameblow
Flameblow

@Playboyize
as if the world rate is important to US commercial banks and derivatives of US mortgages from those banks...

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

@Flameblow
bruh do you even do your DD

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

@massdebater
There's literally no evidence they're going under. They're just getting fucked hard from interest rates.

VisualMaster
VisualMaster

@Playboyize

The % was dropping before 2007, when it reached the lowest point.
We are a third up to how it was at this moment.

What does this mean?

Is the situation better now than it was before 2007 crisis?
Is global market more stable now?

girlDog
girlDog

@VisualMaster
is the situation better now than it was before 2007 crisis?
To my knowledge it's almost as volatile as back then.
Is global market more stable now?
Government funny money and 0% rates have made global markets high on cash injections. Enjoy your hangover bro!

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