How to survive or profit from the comming automation crisis?

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

So I am a big believer in Ray Kurzweils predictions. So far they have been mostly right and since I'm in my 40's I know how much exponential change affects our world (as opposed to millennials who have always had the internet in their life).

So it leads to me to my problem... I'm an avid investor and have been doing quite well for myself since the crash in 2009 and I am saving for retirement using SP500 yadda yadda yadda.

However, I have this sinking feeling that automation is either going to stimulate the economy or crash it when everyone is out of work.

Its going to happen and going to happen in phases. When they get self driving cars working, its going to put 6 million truck drivers out of work. Then if not sooner, the fast food workers are all going to get automated putting out millions more out of work. Then garbage pickups and the list go on to not if your job is going to get automated, but rather when will your job be automated.

I'm college educated and have a job in finance related industry so I'm not exactly worried about being replaced by a robot yet, but its going to affect my portfolio by 2029.

So what should I do? Sell everything in 2025 and start shorting markets in 2030? I don't know. I feel like I'm on borrowed time and even fi I do make money it will eventually run out as the economy collapses as no one has a job anymore.

All urls found in this thread:
http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9UmdY0E8hU
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/22/technology/europe-robots-taxes-jobs/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvgdtF3y0Ss
Supergrass
Supergrass

I don't know, but I like your question.

I think it will be how it always has. No we don't have flying cars and jetpacks, but we do have other amazing things that we could never have imagined (crypto, smart phones etc...)

I think the future will be the same way. Things will pop up that we could never imagine while things we expected will be a flop.

girlDog
girlDog

Le automation maymay

Try /leftypol/

Emberfire
Emberfire

@LuckyDusty
Automation is already here. Ever hear of the assembly line? Because that's automation. The invention of the assembly belt increased production exponentially. Perfecting automation may have lifestyle (akin to cultural) effects but always remember supply and demand.

Most people lack insight on automation's implications. So they ride the slippery slope. Fast food workers don't matter as much we'd believe them to be, except in inflating job statistics the middle class does not live off fast food jobs.

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

@LuckyDusty
No. They can just expand the hodge podge means tested welfare state or introduce UBI to stimulate demand.

Its not like were staring down star trek teplicators.

Also the singularity is a meme , go lookup "the hard problem of consciouseness" and remember that trying to shoo it aeay is the transhumanist equivalent of "god in the gaps"

We're staring down ecological catastrophes far before any of the juicy scifi stuff becomes realistic

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

@LuckyDusty
Just do your best and take it one day at a time. Stay focused on what you are doing now, not on waiting for 'the End'. in whatever form.

Lunatick
Lunatick

@LuckyDusty
They'll just replace it with a basic living wage like Switzerland was trying to do fixed at a percentage of GDP or something like that.
But I'm of the opinion that financial markets and things cannot ever be fully automated, or you'll just have recurring events like 07-08 with retarded ass algorithims going "yeah AAA rated CDOs, what can go wrong?" over and over again.

Booteefool
Booteefool

@TalkBomber

But we don't need to replicate the human consciousness to replace most of the unskilled labor.

It just has to be cheaper and more efficient.

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

@LuckyDusty
Gold and silver seem like obvious choices in the case where the govt starts assigning people arbitrary incomes (like guarantees minimum incomes). Am I missing something?

massdebater
massdebater

@Harmless_Venom

And another thought...

Could the US economy not be facing massive inflation due to the massive quantitative easing because of the exponential growth of automation depressing wages?

idontknow
idontknow

@LuckyDusty
I'm in my 40's

lmao i'd fucking kill myself if I was on Veeky Forums past 21.

Deadlyinx
Deadlyinx

@idontknow
thinks 21 is old
wew sure is underaged in here

Methnerd
Methnerd

@LuckyDusty
as opposed to millennials
try reddit

Emberfire
Emberfire

@idontknow
You are why people hate millennials. You'll be begging to suck my dick for $5 by the time you're 21. Only useful skill you'll have besides microwaving Hot Pockets.

RavySnake
RavySnake

@Emberfire
Nothing wrong with blowjobs and hot pockets you old shit.

TurtleCat
TurtleCat

@RavySnake
I'd suck your dick for one thousand hot pockets...

StonedTime
StonedTime

@idontknow
I'm 21 and you can go fuck yourself. Youre probably some stupid faggot browsing Veeky Forums thinking your some intellectual when in reality you dont know shit about bussiness and never will. Fuck off.

PurpleCharger
PurpleCharger

@LuckyDusty
So I am a big believer in Ray Kurzweils predictions. So far they have been mostly right and since I'm in my 40's I know how much exponential change affects our world (as opposed to millennials who have always had the internet in their life).
During my life technology has improved faster than it ever has before in the past therefore it will improve at the same or greater rate consistently

How does it feel being just as myopic as "millennials"?

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

@LuckyDusty

I don't understand what you're asking. Will the markets crash because of [some factor]? Probably.

If you're in finance you know that you won't be able to time the market.

So take that knowledge that you know you don't have and work around it. Invest in things that historically have held their value or risen in value and diversify appropriately.

I probably can't stop you from thinking some nasdaq doomsday fairy tale is going to happen. This line of thought will inhibit your progress. But you can at least hedge your bets and own things that will keep you safe in any event.

farquit
farquit

@PurpleCharger

Why?

Exponential growth is an observable fact.

Sure it might stop at some point, but it appears to be a rule rather than an exception.

cum2soon
cum2soon

@Emberfire
middleage man ranting on a brazilian hotpocket board kek

askme
askme

@farquit
exponential growth depends on expnential resources, avoiding black swans, and the future functioning of institutions which we currently take for granted

I'm not saying SOMEONE won't profit from exponential growth, but why would it be you?

this country can't even pave roads or teach niggers to read anymore. you think we're gonna build the singularity? we can't teach datrayvyius to read go dog go or 1 fish 2 fish.

idontknow
idontknow

@massdebater
massive inflation
Yeah for sure, usury destroys every monetary system it infects it's just a matter of time. Centuries ago it took, well a century for it to be felt because they used like 3% simple interest. Sooner or later the interest and service charges dwarf the principle, I hear tell planet earth is debt to the tune of 50 to 100 trillion depending who you ask. We are not in Kansas anymore Dorthy, very unstable days ahead along with the impending energy crunch - when it costs a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil the gig is up forever.

And finance? Wew, your job is under serious attack right now, self serve financial advice, bots but what do I know, you might be OK. Life is short, if it goes sideways 40 something isn't bad, not liek you even want to grow to be 80 something, I've seen it and it looks painful.

Deadlyinx
Deadlyinx

@idontknow
http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

Emberfire
Emberfire

@LuckyDusty

OP, this might interest you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9UmdY0E8hU

WebTool
WebTool

What requires more intellect, asking some fat fuck americunt NEET how many chickens he wants up his arse, or being part of a competitive and disruptive business model working on prototyping and engineering robots. Incorporate the domino effect into this and voila.

Fucking myopic focus. When the cavemen stopped being nomadic and domesticated animals, did the hunters have a petition and boycott those tending to the animals?
Honestly. Adaptability is human nature, and retarted fucks like you thinking you know shit reverses natural selection. You and your insecure, uneducated, biased, pessimistic, myopic and downright stupid opinions are a disgrace to human progression.

Zionistic fuckfaces claiming they know anything... Your complacency earns me the ability to convert pennies to pounds each day I feel I want to stroke my ego.

Honestly. This is why you socialist fucks complain about wealth inequality, thinking you matter. Intelligent people rule the capitalist society, and I thank all those who support bluepill zionist propaganda that forces pathetic excuses of a mind to think they can time the market.

My broken clock is right three times a day because I define time. I decide when and where I get my money from. Inept excuses of a human like you should submit to natural selection.

I know that in the grand scheme of things I am an electron in a fucking galaxy. Stock pointers? Sure. You should have shorted the market for the next two open days, and hold over the third day opening and sell at midday. Worship me, plebs, or I won't return here. I guarantee a 270% return by the end of this financial uear.

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

@LuckyDusty
Do not worry too much user. I can't tell you how the economy will look like in 2029 and I guess noone else can.
When new technologies disrupt the markets, new opportunities arise aswell.

Afraid of automation? Buy shares of robot manufacturers, AI developers or lithium producers and you'll smile as the new Servo-Tec 500 rolls out to replace all the burger flippers. You know what I mean.

Looks like you have been doing alright for the past 40 years. You were born around the oil crisis. You have seen countless wars come and go. You have seen the dotcom bubble burst and the crash of the finance market and you're still here.

Keep your eyes open and adept. You'll be fine.

Techpill
Techpill

Recent news on the Robots FYI
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/22/technology/europe-robots-taxes-jobs/

I'm one who believes there will be massive unemployment in the coming 25 years. Why pay 20 employees to do the same task that 12 machines can do with 1 person to maintain them each throughout the day.

If population doesn't start to shrink then unemployment will continue to overflow.

Taxes like the one described in the article above are moves by unions and government groups looking for votes. Social programs would see real income drop off within 20 years without something like a robo tax (not saying I'm for or against it).

Businesses of all sizes will need people to help them modernize and implement these solutions. Safest bet is to build a resume of helping people get there.

As for investment prospects... feel free to let me know what you can think of.

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

OMG everything will be automated

These threads show up 1x per week.

Here's a fun fact: planes have been automated since the 1980's. Yet we still need a human pilot in every single one of them. Gee I wonder why that is?

Snarelure
Snarelure

@Boy_vs_Girl
Why?
Government regulation, thats why.

If not for that, pilots would be young actors who greet you at the cockpit and just sit around reading magazines throughout the flight. Then wave you good bye once youve arrived at your destination.

Evilember
Evilember

@WebTool

Good pasta... I am stealing it.

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

@LuckyDusty
Kurzweil also noted that jobs that existed 100 years ago didnt exist today, and jobs 100 years from now won't exist now.

t. Guy who shook Kurzweil's hand after a talk he gave

SniperGod
SniperGod

@Boy_vs_Girl
When we get AI, we won't need pilots anymore, and this is true of the entire service sector. The same way the industrial revolution made large parts of human physical labour unnecessary. It's gonna become obsolete. And the AI revolution is coming.

Varoufakis (former greek finance minister) thinks similar things. In the past, when there was technological progress, it always created more jobs than it destroyed. He thinks we're coming very close to a point where the balance tips the other way, and more jobs get destroyed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvgdtF3y0Ss

Sir_Gallonhead
Sir_Gallonhead

be mathematician
be computer scientist
be philosopher
be

Flameblow
Flameblow

technology advances exponentially, it is only getting more and more insane from now on, and so does living standard across the globe, only morons are worrier that better technology would lead them to lose their jobs and resulting lower living standard.

yes, eventually, maybe 100 years max, everything is automated and robots take over but living stanrad will be thru the roof at that point. just look at past 100 years western world, 1900 people died at the age of 45 by average working in coal mines all their lives

Lord_Tryzalot
Lord_Tryzalot

@idontknow
Hi I'm in my 30s and I go out of my way to make faggots your age don't get hired in finance. Yeah I think 5-7 years experience should be required to do that Excel job we have Reqs for. Have fun with your loans. Don't worry, Bernie is gonna make uni free for you right?

Nojokur
Nojokur

The reality is that we already have too many people.

Our population is unsustainable and unemployment will persist because there just isn't that much to do.

Automation exacerbates this issue but you can't blame progress for being progress. You CAN blame poor people for spawning more poor people, though.

takes2long
takes2long

@Nojokur
there just isn't that much to do
No, the rich just have all the money and no ideas to spend it on.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@LuckyDusty
Before you get too caught up in the silly delusion of full-automation replacing human laborers, consider this:

To manufacturer a human requires no investment from a business, but to manufacture a robot with similar dexterity and ability to respond to unexpected problems (such as a funny smell) costs billions and requires massive investment in metals, factories, and energy.

Once you realize this, you realize why automation is always "just around the corner" yet there are STILL humans making our burgers, cleaning our offices, operating construction machinery. The concept of a fully automated truck with no driver (or remote driver) is absurd, it won't happen for a long long time of at all.

Realistically, the two professions most at-risk from automation are Surgeons/GPs and low-level lawyers plus people that analyze data (although even then data analysis needs human oversight). Your crappy fast food jobs are safe because nobody can be bothered investing the billions in money and invaluable resources into replacing you with robots just to make a burger faster.

b-b-buh my minimum wage
Nobody cares. You're much more likely to see massive genocide to remove the market for fast food before you see robots making your burgers except in novelty situations.

Stark_Naked
Stark_Naked

@girlDog
Le electricity maymay
Le computer maymay
Le internet maymay
Le smartphone maymay

Booteefool
Booteefool

An automated crane almost killed a guy today in the Port of Long Beach. I don't think the robots are going to take over as fast as people think.

happy_sad
happy_sad

@LuckyDusty
Also a big follower of Kurzweil here and probably one of the wealthiest people to grace this board. I've believed in his predictions for about a decade and have had a lot of time to think about how it will affect finance

In the medium term, I think people will see deflation at the bottom end of the complexity spectrum of goods and services i.e. self-driving cars and housing and massive inflation at the high end of the complexity spectrum i.e. advanced robotic assistants and human augmentation / life extension

I think many corporate incumbents are extremely ill positioned for the next decade of disruption. If a company does not pay attention and buy/capture a new technology trend, they will be void of revenues within a matter of years (this is already true, but the adoption speeds will pick up)

Future growth is going to come out of technology companies (particularly silicon valley). If you are an HNWI, I'd suggest investing in one of the VC firms there. I also believe that blockchain technology is representative of a trend towards less centralized control of the economy and governance. Just like robots will displace manufacturing jobs, blockchain technology will replace white collar jobs in finance especially companies involved with settlements and clearing, payments and insurance.

Companies with large debts going out to 20 years are especially vulnerable if their capital investments become worthless i.e. oil companies will be replaced with solar companies. Long term, I am short oil companies and bank stocks and long technology companies like the big four tech stocks and SV startups because those companies have people that have any fucking clue what is about to happen.

Bidwell
Bidwell

@massdebater
Absolutely. This goes along with my thinking.

Food and simple manufacturing fall into the lower end of the complexity spectrum and will continue to face enormous deflationary pressures

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

@girlDog
You're a fucking retard and I guarantee, you will get a swift left hook out of nowhere when whatever minimum wage shit job you have gets replaced by a robot. A robot that, unlike you, isn't lazy, doesn't make mistakes, doesn't piss off customers, and generally isn't a stupid sack of shit.

My engineering background leads me to believe that automation, for the vast majority of jobs, is technically feasible. My business background leads me to believe that it's coming soon. It just makes better financial sense, and you're going to regret not preparing.

See you in hell, faggot

VisualMaster
VisualMaster

@happy_sad
Future growth is going to come out of technology companies
There's the tell that you are roleplaying and most likely a child. The technology industry is at the mercy of another industry. I suggest you spend a few weeks figuring out which one, and then you will see where you went wrong.

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

@TalkBomber
bringing up philosophy in any argument, ever
Please stop posting.

PurpleCharger
PurpleCharger

@idontknow
Dude I'm 22, are you like 15?

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@TalkBomber
My engineering background leads me to believe that creating robots to replace menial workers is super easy and profitable
I create devices with comparable dexterity to a human hand on my lunch break
I then connect them to software that can act autonomously and react to complex, unexpected scenarios comparably to a human brain
it's much easier than simply paying humans 25k a year to make burgers
also, don't you know energy will soon be free? le tesla is creating artificial energy, soon there will be zero cost to mining or manufacturing
Epic.

Illusionz
Illusionz

@WebTool
What the hell are you talking about

farquit
farquit

@GoogleCat
The concept of a fully automated truck with no driver (or remote driver) is absurd, it won't happen for a long long time of at all.
... what

That already exists

Stop talking out of your ass

massdebater
massdebater

@happy_sad
picking stocks
one of the wealthiest people to grace this board
So did you get the money from daddy or did you win a lottery?

@GoogleCat
I create devices with comparable dexterity to a human hand on my lunch break
Yup, companies are doing this.

also, don't you know energy will soon be free? le tesla is creating artificial energy, soon there will be zero cost to mining or manufacturing
I'm not sure who told you this, but they were fucking with you.

StonedTime
StonedTime

@LuckyDusty
yeah it's gonna be crazy when automation takes off.. robots will earn all of our money and they won't spend it on anything because they have no thoughts or emotions..

maybe the rich ceos that own the robots will have tons of money, and they won't give any money to the rest of us... as humanity gradually dies off we'll see a genetic bottleneck with the only people alive on planet earth being a group of less than maybe 10,000 ultra-millionaires..

after that who knows? maybe they will rebuild and repopulate and in the future we will not attempt robot technology again.

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

Reminder that Ray Kurzweil is a jew and should not be trusted

Nojokur
Nojokur

@VisualMaster
@GoogleCat
You reek of immaturity. Bye

@massdebater
Like OP, I've worked in finance for a long time.

Evilember
Evilember

@GoogleCat
nothing will become fully automated because some things aren't fully automated yet

I don't know why I even come here anymore.

hairygrape
hairygrape

@Nojokur
Bahahaha, didn't take long to trigger you. Embarrassing.

idontknow
idontknow

@Nojokur

This is one of the few times on an anonymous internet board you should defend yourself. You made an argument from authority (you say you're wealthy) and all of your view points are resting on that one simple fact.

Instead you choose to dismiss criticism (albeit childish) instead of address it. Your contribution is worthless.

TechHater
TechHater

@girlDog
Le retarded poster

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