Commodities

takes2long
takes2long

How do you learn to predict future price changes in commodities like gold, oil or real estate?

askme
askme

@takes2long

Focus on one or two, and think about how their price movements are associated with current and future world events.

RavySnake
RavySnake

Well. I know with Gold and Silver they fluctuate depending on the other high value elements like Platinum, Titanium, Palladium, etc. Kind of hard to predict those price changes.

WebTool
WebTool

@takes2long
Need no predict but moving together witch a price, and seeing psihological crowd of market in curently moments.

Ignoramus
Ignoramus

@takes2long
How far in the future are you talking? I think for the mid term (next 5 years) we're going to be experiencing deflation, and all commodities will be affected. I like th usd more than anything else right now

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

@Ignoramus
how far
Like five years or so.

happy_sad
happy_sad

You can't predict. Too many variables that you don't/can't know. You make assumptions and sometimes you're right.

viagrandad
viagrandad

@takes2long
Gigafactory needs like 15 percent of worlds Lithium.

Lithium goes up.

You can't explain that!

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

@takes2long
You guys thinking on this is fundamentally flawed. You do not invest in this shit.

You do not invest in commodities.

You do notinvest in commodities .

Is it starting to sink in? You trade it's swings up and down. Not buy and hold for years. You trade that shit on a day to week swing and ride it back and forth.

RavySnake
RavySnake

@takes2long
just read up on trading in general, from forex to oil. Charts act the same no matter the commodity.
For long term, Harmonics do a great job predicting long term tops and bottoms, putting you in the right area almost everytime no matter the news.

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

@takes2long
You think if we knew that we would be posting on Veeky Forums?

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

@RavySnake
This guy knows some shit most traders don't.

Most rookies are too busy looking at 1m and 5m charts and trying to go huge for 5 or 10 pips when you should really be trading over longer periods of time for huge returns. Like 1h and 4h charts. Holding for days or weeks at a time.

massdebater
massdebater

@takes2long
gold
You can't that much. Just know that there are many factors which affect the price of gold, and they often fluctuate like @RavySnake
said.

oil
There's a LOT of stuff working here. Fracking, instability in the Middle East, OPEC's decisions, and the rise of nuclear and renewable energy in the future. If you're thinking very, very long term, oil's price will drop as demand drops.

real estate
This is probably the hardest to predict among the rest, unless you're looking at a bubble, like what's happening in Vancouver and Toronto right now. The stuff outlined in The Big Short happened under very specific, arguably fraudulent, circumstances which the current system of regulations in the US more or less prevents. Bubbles are hard to spot, and even harder to predict when they'll burst.

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

1. Understand the principles of supply and demand.

2. Understand how the global economy operates

3. Read financial news on commodities like Bloomberg, CNN, Yahoo ect

PurpleCharger
PurpleCharger

@takes2long
You think and try to guess what will happen then bet on how certain you are you're right.

It's a fun game.

@massdebater
If you're thinking very, very long term, oil's price will drop as demand drops.

Maybe over the span of OP's life but not in the near future barring some black swan tech breakthrough. Current prices are on a slow but steady increase. They will continue a slow march up as reserves are depleted and it costs more to extract new ones.

whereismyname
whereismyname

@askme
This desu. I made decent money from oil, but I wouldn't ever think of following more than 2-3 commodities unless you do so as a job.

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

@PurpleCharger
@RavySnake

These two are the only two that sound like actual traders to me.

@massdebater
This guy sounds like he knows what he's talking about but I'm pretty sure he never trades commodities. If he did he wouldn't be talking like this.

@takes2long
I don't know what I have to make you believe me. You can't invest in this shit like it's some kind of long term thing.

You trade this shit from a day to day and week to week basis. You learn how the market works and sell the highs and buy the lows.

farquit
farquit

@RavySnake
do cryptos charts act the same as well

Nojokur
Nojokur

@farquit
Post a chart for me to look at and I'll tell you.

I'd figure it may be more volatile for shit like crypto currency and penny stocks though.

Carnalpleasure
Carnalpleasure

@Nojokur
pizzacharts dot com

Emberburn
Emberburn

@Carnalpleasure
Hmm it's hard for me to use these charts well enough but I think I would have trouble trading off these charts. Let me look a bit more

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

@Emberburn
here's another one

SniperWish
SniperWish

@Carnalpleasure
It's hard for me to get a good look without being able to scroll through the charts but from the limited amount of candles I can see I would have far more trouble trading this than something like oil or the euro

RavySnake
RavySnake

@TalkBomber
Its still too zoomed in for me to accurately see enough.

DeathDog
DeathDog

@farquit
Indeed, in fact much better.

TechHater
TechHater

@DeathDog
how so

Stupidasole
Stupidasole

@TechHater
crypto reactions are much more quick, giving clearer signals faster than regulated markets.

A free fall in a regulated market is more like falling with a parachute, while crypto is like falling parachuting with a rock. The directions up or down tend to be quite easy to spot than in the regulated markets.

Garbage Can Lid
Garbage Can Lid

I don't really know much but I bought 50 ounces of silver coins on Jan 2, 2016
Still holding, and if I were to sell it is doing much better than my other investments

5mileys
5mileys

@Garbage Can Lid
Man I literally shorted gold on Thursday and dumped it then turned around and bought it Friday morning.

"Investing" by buying this shit and holding it for a long term is really kind of dumb. It doesn't even pay dividends or anything

@Stupidasole
I don't know what you use to trade but I'm having a lot of trouble spotting these drops from the charts I could see on that pizza chart while on something like gold or oil I can see them from a mile away.

TechHater
TechHater

@5mileys
Well in 8 months it gained 39% so I would say that it was a pretty good investment. My mutual fund only went up 2% in the same amount of time. Maybe you don't view this as "investing" but engaging in high risk leveraged bullshit is pretty damn risky

JunkTop
JunkTop

@TechHater
That's a very good return. Yeah it's probably a lot safer but you should try learning the markets. You can make money every week and it doesn't matter if silver is rising or dropping

iluvmen
iluvmen

Owning physical silver and gold is a bet against the financial system.

It's simply saving your wealth in tangible, liquid assets that are safely outside the money markets.

Buying for capital gains isn't a good idea because of the costs involved in the spread, storage and transport.

Due to the cyclical nature of commodities, buying and holding is risky for retail investors. Although there is an argument that natural resources must increase in price along with global development and population growth.

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