Election betting

takes2long
takes2long

Am I dumb for trying to day-trade on a betting market?

had 380 euros on Trump at 4.6
yesterday
see his odds rapidly worsen from 3.8
cash out at 4.33 thinking it would get worse and I'd get back in higher
it's back to 3.85

so here's my dilemna Veeky Forums
get back in now and take a loss over what I could have had
or
wait until maybe it gets back over 4 over the next two months
I'm afraid the >4 ship has sailed, but clearly I don't have very good judgment

wat do?

w8t4u
w8t4u

Stop speculating and invest in long term, utility based stocks. Read Security Analysis.

Bidwell
Bidwell

@w8t4u
muh stocks
what kind of a stock is going to get me a 360% ROI in 2 months??

This isn't an investment thread, it's a betting thread

PurpleCharger
PurpleCharger

@takes2long
day trading on election bets
OP you're my hero lol fuck that's hilarious kek

SniperGod
SniperGod

@Bidwell
if you want betting, just bet on sports, you can make solid money on EPL if you're not dumb and bet on a lot of games

RavySnake
RavySnake

URRE....

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

@SniperGod
bet on literally one of the most correctly priced leagues in the world

I have no words user... real money is in shit like lithuanian 3rd div, where there are misprices all the time.

Evil_kitten
Evil_kitten

@takes2long
OP wait until the debate

viagrandad
viagrandad

wat do

I don't honestly understand all that you got going on there OP but I'm from /pol/ so hear me out: It's literally too early to tell what's going to happen right now.

It's Shillary's game to lose, because Trump has taken everything they've thrown at him so far and none of it sticks. They're neck in neck in the polls. BUT it's pre debate. Trump could flop although that's unlikely looking at past performance. Shillary PROBABLY will have some ACTUAL giant scandal that even the MSM can't ignore, possibly dropping out of the debates.

Basically, the numbers are going to be all over the place, volatile as hell, depending on the debates and the Wikileaks october surprise they keep teasing. Personally I think Trump is going to win because virtue signalling can only take a candidate so far.

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

I figured if I know the number's gonna keep going down for now I might as well go back in right now, go I got back in at 3.85 and now it's 3.65, so so far so good.

@SniperGod
I have no insights on sports, but I know a lot about politics and for me it's very plain to see that the given odds on betting markets are out of line with the actual odds because of a strong intentionally-created bias, so that makes it a pretty attractive bet.

@Evil_kitten
Yeah but if you wait and Trump knocks it out of the park/Clinton shortcircuits the odds will be going the wrong way before you can get in

@viagrandad
I think he'll probably win, even if it's a toss-up then taking a bet when he's given a 20-30% chance to win is a good idea if you're sure, so I think if you bet on him now you'll get a good return when he wins.

@PurpleCharger
Yeah why not? Think about it, if you cash out before the end then it's just like other forms of speculation, except it moves faster. With great timing you could probably double your money in a month on that kind of thing. Problem is so far my timing's been pretty mixed.

Am I the only one doing this? I figured Veeky Forums might be into this too.

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

@Need_TLC
betting on the huge variance in the sports-playing ability of undocumented immigrants from every shithole in the world

brilliant

5mileys
5mileys

@SniperGod
I bought dozens of shares in PMSL after I read this post. Looks like I'll be able to trade out v enjoyably desu

cum2soon
cum2soon

@Poker_Star
Go to /bet/ on /sp/

takes2long
takes2long

@cum2soon
Dont

iluvmen
iluvmen

just smack overs in santa claus game you melts pmsl so easy

Deadlyinx
Deadlyinx

I bet 50e on Trump when the odds were 4.6

1 year ago the odds were 11

Methnerd
Methnerd

@Deadlyinx
aftertiming
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Firespawn
Firespawn

@Deadlyinx
dat

TechHater
TechHater

@takes2long
putting everything i have on Bernie.
shit is gonna PAY OUT.

Stupidasole
Stupidasole

@Deadlyinx
when it reached 5.6 like two weeks ago I only was willing to add 10e on it... ah well it least it took me to a 4.61 average. Which I ruined by cashing out and getting back in at worse odds... fugg

1 year ago Trump winning was a much longer shot than it is now, many times longer and therefore much riskier. So you've got worse odds now but a much safer bet.

@TechHater
lel, I'm surprised there aren't more people betting on Tim Kaine. If Clinton has a stroke before election day he'll be the one running for the Dems.

Nojokur
Nojokur

@Stupidasole
1 year ago Trump winning was a much longer shot than it is now, many times longer and therefore much riskier. So you've got worse odds now but a much safer bet.
SURELY SURELY nibs

Lord_Tryzalot
Lord_Tryzalot

@Crazy_Nice
You dumb shit..

Evil_kitten
Evil_kitten

@takes2long
Ah the old I don't what the fuck I'm doing question.

This is literally like every stock ever. Get your feelings together and do what you the statistics say.

SomethingNew
SomethingNew

OP. See Caan Berry and Bet Angek software.

w8t4u
w8t4u

@RavySnake
Get the fuck out.

eGremlin
eGremlin

@Nojokur
nibs

what do u mean?

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@cum2soon
Go to /bet/ on /sp/ and do the complete opposite of what people say

Nude_Bikergirl
Nude_Bikergirl

I have placed a reasonable bet on trump, and a minor bet on tim k just in case.

King_Martha
King_Martha

@Poker_Star
I've made good returns on the UK Labour Leadership Elections and I am currently in a position where if Corbyn wins I'll just under double my money, and lose nothing if he loses.

I don't know if you looked at Betfair on the night of the EU Ref, but about an hour before the votes started coming in the remain odds (which lost) went down to 1.10 as everyone suddenly seemed so confident. Point being, there will be huge odds swings on the night of the election which you can take advantage of in-play.

I made money Trump securing the nomination. It was just a straight bet but seemed pretty clear. It was paid out early too.

Evil_kitten
Evil_kitten

I also made money on the trump nomination...
Anyone have recommendations for best betting platforms?

Snarelure
Snarelure

@Evil_kitten
Pinnacle/SBO and betfair. All you need to profit.

TurtleCat
TurtleCat

@King_Martha

a position where if Corbyn wins I'll just under double my money, and lose nothing if he loses

elaborate please, sounds unreal

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

@King_Martha
I hope so (for the swings), it would be interesting to day-trade the shit out of those swings (imagine if he goes near 2.0 then I pull out and in the midst of the confusion he jumps back to 4.0+ and I get back in, one can dream).

Were there any swings in 2012? I imagine everybody (but Karl Rove) knew who'd win, so probably not.

if Corbyn wins I'll just under double my money, and lose nothing if he loses.
how??

@Evil_kitten
when I started I compared the odds and found at BetFair had much better odds for someone putting money on Trump. I like it, I also like the Cash Out thingie (basically you can take a counter bet to cancel out any bet you made and get what money's left back).

eGremlin
eGremlin

@CouchChiller
Cash out is just laying your bet. And ofc bf will have better odds, they have lowest margins because its an exchange.

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