What would be the best course of action? Start my own page and offer the...

JunkTop
JunkTop

Have (soccer) prediction model that is consistently profitable
Want to use the information I can provide to generate passive income
What would be the best course of action? Start my own page and offer the information for a subscription fee, share the predictions on existing platforms, for example tipster sites, wrap the whole thing up in a mobile app?

For the sake of on-topic discussion, please refrain from posting comments such as "models don't work" and the likes and just assume it is indeed profitable.

girlDog
girlDog

@JunkTop
What would be the best course of action

idk what about spelling football correctly

SomethingNew
SomethingNew

@girlDog
Picture is taken off some SBO article, but yeah, correct spelling always seems like a good idea.

5mileys
5mileys

Creating a site where you sell the model for a subscription would be best way to achieve passive income.

You can start off shilling on betting forums and social media groups or tipster sites to get your first customers.

Add some affiliate links to popular brokers/gambling networks and you'll earn even more passive income.

Maybe write up an exclusive ebook for how to profit step-by-step for people who buy a $vip$ membership to your site.

There's a lot of options. These are what I would do. Just take action one step at a time.

askme
askme

@JunkTop
No. Why the fuck limit your profits to what others are willing to GIVE you?

If it's truly profitable, go all in on your own model. Don't shill

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

@5mileys
I was thinking of creating a website to publish the predictions day by day and giving the options to either buy 1 days worth of predictions or subscribe to get a months worth of predictions. I'd basically publish the predictions in a pay per view "blog" post.

As for the affiliate links.. Lots of tipsters go that route and get a bad reputation, because ultimately, they profit when those who have signed up through their links are losing. I don't like that approach; in the community these people are seen as "frauds", because their interest in generating profit for their customers isn't genuine.

@askme
I've been using my model to bet myself and still do. What I want in addition to the profit it generates me is "risk-free" income and it makes sense, because I'm putting in the work to maintain, update and improve the model anyway - might aswell use it to get passive income.

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

@Poker_Star
Sounds like a good idea. Publishing some info for free will build your credibility fast. Lock most of it away behind a paywall.
For instance in each blog post publish your predictions. Show the top 20% of the page length for free. Lock the rest under a "vip members only" subscription.
The only thing you'll have to worry about are people sharing their passwords or leaking your posts outside of your site.
You know your industry better than anyone else on this board. Do what works and stay away from what doesn't.

SniperGod
SniperGod

@PackManBrainlure
I have a way to determine the quality of the predictions (not just in terms of win probability, but also other factors), so I'd probably give the less valuable predictions for free and then have the rest behind a paywall, so that should work. I'm not too worried about people sharing the predictions. I know it happens in paid tipster groups, but I think my service is different, because I'm not actually giving definite tips, I'm merely offering information that helps making profitable bets.

Now what I've been wondering is, how much time and effort should I invest in the website? Sure, it should look clean and legitimate, but other than that I can probably keep it rather simple, right?

BinaryMan
BinaryMan

The big question is if you've backtested your system through several years. If not, it's worthless and you're probably deluding yourself as to it's value.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@SniperGod
Depends. Do you know web development? Can you make a site from the ground up? Do you have the time to learn? Would it be a better use of time to hire an expert to do it for you?
What I like to do is look at google search results for similar websites. Or any site that made me say "wow I would buy this". Don't forget to click the ads. Analyze their website, landing page, copy writing. See what makes you want to buy, and what turns you off. Incorporate your favorite parts into your design.

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

Is this arbitrage trading or matched betting because if so there are already loads of models out there for those methods?

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

@BinaryMan
I'm not entirely sure about the time span, but I have records of around 4000 bets. I'm aware that in the long run the model on it's own could still prove to be unprofitable, but for now that actually isn't a big issue. The model is supposed to indicate where the value is and as such should only be used as an additional tool to make your decisions, you're not supposed to completely rely on it.

@GoogleCat
I know enough web development to be confident in saying that I could make that site, I just don't know if it's worth it when I could probably easily build it from a wordpress template.

@StrangeWizard
Neither, it's a statistical model that calculates the probability of the outcomes based on historical data and other factors and compares them with the odds offered by the bookmakers.

w8t4u
w8t4u

@JunkTop

What exactly can it predict? Only winds, draws, losses? How bout goalscorer for the game, MotM, if a player gets >2 goals, >2 assists. Are you predicting season champions? (doesn't have to be at the begining of a season, I made a killing off of Leceister last winter break. Bite the bullet.)

This isn't even to start on live betting. Are you doing your predictions only before the game, or basing it on game states?

lostmypassword
lostmypassword

@w8t4u
1x2, AH, o/u, HT/FT. Technically it could do a lot more, but I don't have (free) access to more detailed data that would be necessary for other predictions. It's fairly basic, but performs very well in the jobs it's supposed to do. I actually don't really cover mainstream leagues (much), so that's one reason why the data is not easily obtainable, and also why I don't bother with predictions such as season champions. I absolutely have many ideas how to put it to use for live betting, but again, getting the necessary data, especially for more obsccure leagues, can be very expensive.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

@lostmypassword

Lolwut. Who are you going to sell this to if it's for crappy leagues? Like, are we talking like Vietnamese League? To not name any names, just gimme like a rank, as in <50 leagues. Also, what continent are these leagues on?

You really only get good bets on the top 2 divisions across Europe and S. America. Sure there is an Asian market as well, but it's pretty small on the bigger sites like Paddy Power and Sky Bet.

Also, how are you running these algorithms if you aren't collecting data? FM is now used by some clubs to freaking scout, and I've seen some studies on the game simulations being quite realistic (Portugal made it to every Euro-Cup final on my saves in 2016 ;o... but yeah, causation=/=correlation).

Anyways, depending on how good the program is I'd just keep it myself. Most people who bet are going to bet on their teams, or think themselves the master (kinda like the fan who watches football and thinks he can do a better job than the manager) so they are probably just gonna think you are shilling them something.

If it does perform well on a % basis, what is to stop you from spreading your bets across the board and making profit every week?

Something doesn't seem right.

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

@GoogleCat

Just to add to my post, I do believe in history. First thing I'd look for is like manager head to head record, then team head to head record, etc. History does tend to repeat itself, records are hard to break, ducks even harder to break, so it doesn't have to be an exact science.

Garbage Can Lid
Garbage Can Lid

@GoogleCat
Games in mainstream leagues are almost always correctly priced, so there is little to no value in those bets. Yes, we are mostly talking lower division, but from a technical pov nothing is stopping me from making predictions for mainstream either, it's just that most of the predictions will be very similiar to what the bookies offer, so probably not profitable in the long run.

I am scraping most of the data and add some manually.

I understand most casual bettors aren't going to care about making value bets, but I still think there could be enough interest. All leagues I am covering are also carried by most of the major (bubblegum) bookies so it's not like the average Joe couldn't get on my "tips".

If it does perform well on a % basis, what is to stop you from spreading your bets across the board and making profit every week?
Nothing, that's what I'm doing.

RumChicken
RumChicken

@JunkTop
most people who bet don't believe in subscriptions since it's not foolproof. i bet and i never trust "tripster" who offer tips in exchange for money since it's really a scam. but you will definitely find some poor fools willing to give you money. start a facebook page, virtually no cost, you might need to pay for publicty tho.

Evil_kitten
Evil_kitten

also please give me this some examples of accurate prediction and the general idea on which it works, if you like. i'm really interested, i thought about making one some time, but i realised that there are way too many unknown variables and at that point common sense will do the trick ( like knowing that barca will defeat celtic, i didnt really need an algorithm for that )

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

@RumChicken
@Evil_kitten
I don't have time right now, but I'll get back to you when I'm back home and provide some examples.

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

@askme
Risk vs no risk

Hmm hard one.

Emberburn
Emberburn

@JunkTop
Any example of your prediction model?
Because why would people want to "buy" predictions? I can find them for free just one click away from google.
Get as much of traffic as possible by posting your prediction for free for the members of your site, don't forget to advertise, SEO, analytics and whatnot.
Adsense is your friend, that's where you'll get most of the income.
If your predictions are as good as you say, more and more visitors will come and of course more money from adsense.

askme
askme

@Emberburn
On mobile, have to keep it short. The model outperforms pretty much all prediction sites im aware of and excells at finding value and misprices, thats one thing most sites are lacking. Its also interesting for traders, because the odds for my "picks" typically shorten a lot from the time of the prediction to kickoff.

Deadlyinx
Deadlyinx

@askme

Dude who was asking about crappy leagues. If the leagues are covered, then sure, you could make some money.

But like someone else said, as someone who bets myself, I don't take advice, and would never sign up on a pay-to-play website. People who bet on Football won't; A) take betting advice from others, and B) think they can take their club to CL in 2 years if they were given the helm.

StonedTime
StonedTime

@Deadlyinx
I know that is true for the average casual gamblers, but i also know there are plenty of people who pay profitable tipsters. Hell, knowing the "community", there are plenty of people willing to pay unprofitable tipsters, as crazy as it sounds.

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