Should we fear them?

Not that guy but China isn't really a threat to America. China is the chief holder of U.S sovereign debt, and in economic terms they form two halves of the same coin. There are diverging theories on the nature of this relationship and whether it has negative or positive consequences in terms of relations between the two powers.

Of the theories, there are two which I believe are especially valid. The first is that economic relations between powers fosters peace between powers, and I think there's a lot of evidence for this in history. The second theory is that economic relations between powers allows for conflicts between powers to play out without resorting to war.

If either theory is true China is not a threat to the U.S. If economic ties improves relations, then the two nations will obviously not be hostile without a huge diplomatic crisis. If economic relations allows for muted conflict between powers, then this decreases the chance of military conflict.

Personally I think that the U.S will never be in danger so long as it remains internally stable. On the other hand, China's growth means it has a rapidly growing middle class which can be a source of internal instability. So despite it 'catching up' to the U.S, it faces far more severe problems.

>are there enough unresolved issues to inadvertently propel a big war?

Develop friendly but increasingly consuming economic ties with the world so that second and third world countries will turn to China rather than accept militaristic US hegemony, only to fall into the grasp of Chinese companies.

how did the balance of power between the west and the east shifted around the XV or XVI centuries?

We're fucked lads

let me make this simple for all you reactionaries that dont know their history and think the big bad paper tiger is gonna get you:

China cannot project power beyond China. All China can do is hold China together, and their track record with that isnt even all that great. As soon as china tries to project power, it falls apart internally. It is literally the posterchild for the concept of a paper tiger, in fact im pretty sure that phrase was invented to describe china but idk for sure.

sounds like a simplistic opinion.
now, can you support it?

theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/07/going-global-china-exports-soft-power-with-first-large-scale-university-in-malaysia

anyone with power over you is a potential threat

for me the problem is not China's potential or power in the world already. that's pretty much established and certainty for the future.

The issue is China's past and relationship with the West.
What will they do? Forgive us for interfering in their millennial civilization and keeping them down for 500 hundred years even though they never posed a threat and never had an history of leaving their boundaries?

or will they seek revenge?

>China is the chief holder of U.S sovereign debt
"no"

>The issue is China's past and relationship with the West.

If China based its foreign policy on revanchism it would not be as successful as it is today. China's goals, namely economic expansion on a global scale and national security in their region, are more important than butthurt over the opium wars.

wait so you think your guardian article is a source or something? Wow china you opened a foreign university youre almost catching up to where western countries were fucking 200 years ago, such soft power, very projection, totally not a paper tiger with a military straight outta the 80s in an era where numbers mean less than they ever have.

Even when china was strong relative to other nations because numbers actually did matter before the 20th century(as in, all of history before that) they still couldnt project power

>that pathetic navy
>muh big standing army full of undertrained, poorly-equipped drones

PAPER.
TIGER.

That chart is misleading but does not really detract from my point. According to the chart, China still holds the largest slice of U.S debt relative to other sovereign nations.

On top of that, China owns over 32% of the total stock of U.S Treasury securities.

>Biggest Army in the world
>Their biggest enemy is on the other side of the world

none of this matters because they cant break down the door and demand their money, they just have to take that big american cock and keep sucking on it. When their navy starts to match that of a certain anglo island nation, let alone the united states, talk to me.

would you reveal your power level if you were trying to achieve something, as a nation?

todayonline.com/chinaindia/china/why-chinas-millennials-are-high-ultra-nationalism

it's an example. user thinks china is not projecting power to the outside. I showed otherwise, soft power slowly entrenching the West. that's how it's done.

>muh paper tiger
it appears you can only speak in metaphors. we're trying to assess a potential treat here, you're not helping.

If the mongols can cuck them, so can we.

Nice quints but I don't really think you understand how the relationship works. They wouldn't have to 'demand their money' in order to exert pressure on the U.S. Because the Chinese lend to America at very low interest rates, American consumption is partially funded by the Chinese state. If China chose to disinvest suddenly, it would cause the value of the dollar to plunge. This would be bad for both countries, but it is still a possible way to exert pressure for other gains.

>would you reveal your power level if you were trying to achieve something, as a nation?

Nations aren't a single person and what they want is fairly easy to determine by anyone.

they dont have a navy worth a damn. Theyre surrounded by a navy that consists of 11 active aircraft carriers with ANOTHER 11 on standby. I dont care if they have a trillion man army with quadrillions of dollars in the bank, they cant get a military force out of china without getting cut off by a superior military with superior technology. Their "soft power" is fucking child's play compared to the United States, whose culture has become the world's culture. It looks like the US doesnt have a culture, but thats because your culture has already been americanized so you cant even tell. Nobody likes china, theyre human rights violators, they arent actually taken seriously. Their money is taken seriously, they however are not.

they cant do that because they rely on us like we rely on them. In practice, it means they have no leverage whatsoever. Theyre literally America's bitch in every facet. Their military couldnt defeat japan, let alone anyone else. Im serious, japan ALONE would win that war with ease.

Well, I have my doubts about their intentions. I know if I were China I wouldn't just forget about it

when I ask "should we fear them", I don't mean tomorrow, or next year.
we're talking about civilizations here, whatever happens it will a while.

What do you think their path is telling us, since they were able to take our boot of themselves, at the end of the second world war?

>Should we fear them?
only if you're a sparrow

"Paper Tiger" is invented by Mao Zedong to describe US during cold war, then it spread to America and becomes a common term in English-speaking world. You only need 5 minutes to Google it before spouting shit.
phrases.org.uk/meanings/277650.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper_tiger

Nevertheless, I like the way you think, China is not threat and unable to project any power, you really don't need to fear us. Just keep that way, your kind are the greatest ally of China in the West, if you're westerner.

Who are "we"? And why do (you) want to fear (them)? Did you do something bad against them? Are you enemy of them? If the answer is all "no", then I don't see why you have to fear them.

china poses a threat to every country it shares a border/general geographical location with. there's a reason japan, which has been largely pacifist (barring some right wing fringe elements), is militarizing for the first time since the mid 1900s. or just look at india.

china poses an immediate threat to the rest of the pacific, but westerners are probably safe from most things except the long term economic consequences of getting btfo by china. anyone else in the east should be and probably are pretty intimidated.

"we" is the west. I don't want anything personally. I'm just wondering if we're not focusing too much in israel's enemies that pose no threat to us, islam can't even unite itself, and forgetting about the a civilization in the far east that can upset the balance of power in the relative near future

The thing about the Chinese is that their conception of time and amount is way different from the West.

Just look at their death tolls in history: The War of the 3 Kingdoms, the Taiping Rebellion, the 2nd Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese Civil War, the Mongols and Manchu conquests, An Lushan's Rebellion, and so on. They've had millions upon millions of casualties which would wreck any nation in the West, but they've always bounced back from it. Putting a dent against 1.3 billion people is fucking terrifying.

As for time, the Chinese have looked at things in a macroscopic sense. Not in years or decades, but multi-generational throughout centuries. They'll bide their time and once they've grown enough strength (or their opposition is weak enough), than they'll strike. So they're patient as fuck.

So we should be extremely wary of them in the long-run.

>11 active aircraft carriers with ANOTHER 11 on standby.
This. Until another country has a comparable force, and the experience of using it, USA is top dog and unbeatable.

>japan, which has been largely pacifist
Japan has land disputes with all of its neighboring countries which includes Russia, China and Korea. For a pure island "pacifist" country with NO land border connection with every countries surround it, this is even more impressive than China.

>India
Over 90% of land disputes between India and China are originated from British colonists actually.

good post. Just to reinforce the point about conception of time we can compare it with a westerner's: his thinking is all about the 11 carriers america has and that's all he can see.
With such short term thinking how can we even begin to assess a civilizational threat?

>Being this Orientalist.

See, if you really know China's history without bias, especially "dynastic cycle" theory, you'll know there really is nothing to fear or paranoid about, because they're merely restoring their "normal power" like they always had before.

Just like Trump's slogan "make America great again", China has been promoted similar idea ("Reviving China" 振興中華) ever since they lost opium wars at 19th century.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-Strengthening_Movement
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revive_China_Society
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinhai_Revolution
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Principles_of_the_People

what the hell does that mean?

I don't know what they are doing, that's why I'm asking. I don't think anyone knows. But thanks for the links.
I understand China was never an expansionist power. But I also understand they were never subjugated by an external power for 500 years.
Wouldn't Making China Great Again be a necessary step to something bigger (and more dangerous to us)?

European countries developed scientific warfare in the late 17th century and the industrial revolution began in the 18th century. Before then China was a richer and stronger state than any European state. European military technology took off the 17th century, along with much more advantage drilling and professionalism. But the 17th century, the only European technological advantage over other civilized states was in metallurgy (slightly better cannons, full plate armor). Those alone weren't really enough to establish dominance, as continued Ottoman successes showed. And Ming China was a stronger and richer state than the Ottomans. So after the military revolution of the 17th century the Europeans had superior armies, but even then European armies were far too small to take a chunk out of China until the industrial revolution created massive wealth for Europe.

>never subjugated by an external power for 500 years.

All of China's important cities were taken by the Japanese in the 20th century. All of China period was conquered and ruled by the Manchu (a sedentary peopled descended from the nomadic Jurchen barbarians) in the 17th century. So no, not at all.

>what the hell does that mean?
It means Chinese politicians are not wise old men from Kung-fu movies, who sagely plot centuries into the future, because of their mystical Eastern wisdom.
They're pretty much the same as Western leaders. To suggest otherwise is pretty racist senpai.

implying different peoples have different cultures is not at all racist. their civilization is in fact 4000 years old . none of us is even remotely close.

what's wrong with theorizing their culture is different?

Xia is semi-legendary and proto-Chinese. The Chinese people are more than 4,000 years old. "Chinese civilization" is not.

>All of China's important cities were taken by the Japanese in the 20th century.
Pic her is your Japanese with their "the greatest extent" at China in the 20th century.

>All of China period was conquered and ruled by the Manchu (a sedentary peopled descended from the nomadic Jurchen barbarians) in the 17th century
Manchu were Ming China's vassal and subject before they rebelled.

I'm not sure if you're trying to decrease OP's "fear" or just try to humiliate and belittle China.

On the contrary I am very impressed by Chinese civilization and stated in an earlier post that China was greater than any European state well into the 18th century.

their civilization is not older than ours?
did it break into 40 or 50 independent nations?

If you start from the Greeks, it is still older than Western Civilization. The Shang Civilization's (dynasty is misleading histriography) high point was 1,200 BC.

only if you're their neighbour

on that conception of time point, I find it curious their strategic thinking on the Honk Kong and Macao cases.
Yes, they conceded land to the enemy, but not forever. To their portuguese and british counterparts it would have looked forever, yet it wasn't.
They appeased us and gave us our trade outposts when they couldn't resist us militarily and yet haven't lost anything permanently. And they have got now 500 years of contact with the west, so they know how we think.

What can go wrong?

More on this specifically: the Zhou is where Chinese civilization in its lasting form arose. Confucianism, Legalism, Taoism, and with the fall of the Zhou, the person of the Emperor. Shang civilization is a direct predecessor to the Zhou with many practices lasting well into the era, and the Zhou themselves claiming to their successors by right of the Mandate of Heaven.

You are attributing grand strategy where none exists. The country which ceded Hong Kong was not the country which claimed it back. It wasn't part of any great scheme. It was taken because it could be taken, it was returned because PRC could have grabbed it by force if necessary.
Do you think British control of Calais was due to some inscrutable Anglo plan?

>it was returned because PRC could have grabbed it by force if necessary.
no, because it was on the contract. 99 year lease, just checked. If it's not strategic long term planning, what is it then?
>Do you think British control of Calais was due to some inscrutable Anglo plan?
I don't know what you mean?

This.

Check out RAND's own analysis of potential US conflict with China

>rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html

They analyze conflict based on the severeness of it and then further estimates (guesses) are given for conflicts in ten years. Even if you just skim through and look at some charts and read the conclusion you'll find stuff like pic related. For the next few years China loses more, but everybody loses in a real war between the two nations. The entire world economy would suffer.

The conclusion is that any sort of conflict should be avoided if at all possible. The US may win militarily, but this will cost much more than soldier's lives.

> On the other hand, China's growth means it has a rapidly growing middle class which can be a source of internal instability. So despite it 'catching up' to the U.S, it faces far more severe problems.

People always say this, and while true, we've seen that the CCP has been totally willing to change with the times. The amount of dissent needed to break China at this point simply does not exist outside of a few key regions. This only changes if and when the CCP can no longer provide growth and stability. I've seen no reliable evidence that this will be the case.

The US doesn't need to go to war with China, but should become more active with its soft power in the region. The (((TPP))) was a good example of this. A political framework to make sure China's neighbors remain economically and politically sovereign from China.

I had hopes that Trump would follow through on his proposal of bilateral deals, because they could provide the same geopolitical advantages. So far it seems like his administration won't get anything done in relation to foreign relations.

>China cannot project power beyond China.

China doesn't want to project power in the same ways as the US. For now, they want their sphere of influence. This will upset nations all the same.

Better start learning Mandarin.

Depends on what your objectives are?
Do you want America to be a world hegemon and not cede spheres of influence to other countries?
Than yes
Are you worried about high tech manufacturing jobs?
Then yes
Do you want America to mind it's own business and stop intervening overseas?
Then no

>Grow (economically) larger to generate more prosperity and strength
>Lift people out of poverty and clean up the environment so the plebs don't decide on another revolution
>Rewrite the rules of the various international institutions to be more inclusive (of China) and less critical (of China)
>Establish a G2 system in which the only countries that actually matter are China and the USA. EU, Rus, JPN, and IND get to be somewhat important secondary powers

There's also some stuff about senior party members enriching themselves and Xi cementing himself as the a guy on par with Mao and Deng

China also hasn't fought since the banter with Vietnam, I'd wonder how well their army would actually fare in a real fight with another industrialized nation

>People always say this, and while true, we've seen that the CCP has been totally willing to change with the times.
And yet under Xi Jinping they have actually been regressing and increasing their heavy-handedness with respect to the CCP's control over censorship and authoritarianism.

>China doesn't want to project power in the same ways as the US.
Then why are they developing Africa and building the OBOR?

china isn't a threat to the US. they are ringed by american allies and client states. japan, south korea, the philippines, india.

No. America hasn't even gone full empire yet.

No

America has already cucked them culturally. In a few decades the young Chinese won't give a fuck about Chinese culture

We should fear how much CO2 they're putting into the atmosphere.

>>Chinese mathematicians were the first to use negative numbers.
They also invented Gaussian elimination 1900 years before Europeans and adopted a base 10 number system first. How can Euros even compete?

What are you talking about? If anything, Chinese are becoming increasingly nationalistic and proud of traditional culture. For example, a bunch of Confucian schools are bring set up as we speak. Not to mention the immense patronage by the CCP of traditional thought to augment their rule.

>Philippines are aligned with US
>When this fucker is in charge

This movie is going to released in US as well. Time to leave your basement, buddy.
youtu.be/fkqGiPB2D8M

>Wolf Warrior 2: The nationalist action film storming China
bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-40811952

That's what the Soviets thought, my Chinaboo friend. Turned out the people wanted levis and coke more than furry hats. You can't beat the Coca Cola corporation.

>and it's nothing

And how many US films get released in China?

>how many US films get released in China?
Quite a few. And with "Chinese investment" studios of course. But still not enough to make your fantasy comes true, I'm afraid.

>China's Government Made 'Warcraft' a Hit
inverse.com/article/16716-warcraft-is-a-huge-hit-in-china-because-the-chinese-government-wanted-it-to-be

But turns out Hollywood is not as profitable as some people think.
forbes.com/sites/schuylermoore/2017/04/25/the-china-chill-in-hollywood/#5a7973fb2881

user, livis and coke aren't the full extent of culture. China can both have a culture and have mcdonalds.

Yeah, but many of your levis, Coca Cola and furry hats are made in China now.

What years are you living at? Who are you trying to convince? You wouldn't honestly believe China nowadays still likes old Soviet, right?

I think you don't really know what you are talking about.

>B b but we do tedious manual labor for Americans, in a way we're winning
China and Chinaboos talk a big talk but when all said and done they are America's bitch. Maybe in a hundred years they might be on parity or something, but they'll probably do some autistic revolution before then. Maybe this time they'll finish off the sparrow menace for good

sigh.

>B b but in a way we're winning
That's (you)r delusion, not me, sorry.

I know you're paranoid and you want to beat your greatest foe, the big bad wolf, aka China, in order to satisfy your "superiority complex", but this is not the way to go, especially when America can barely hold their own society now.

I wonder the same thing about the US

Also a reminder, China's next biggest competition is India.

What India grows in GDP per year, China grows in "India" GDP per year.

Basically China eclipses India in economy that it grows India sized economy each year.

So why do western leftists defend China so much and refuse to criticize it for things like banning the name Muhammad in a native Muslim province and being an ethno-nationalist protectionist state?

Their defense spending has bee less than 2% since the 90s. Their navy is expected to grow in size in the coming decade, simply due to increase in economy.

They will have their third homegrown aircraft carrier in 3 years.

China is a growing threat and US needs a proper strategy or the sleeping dragon will eat the US economy the way US ate British economy.

The growth has become pretty equal lately between China and India. With Modi's economic regime, India's growth rate will surpass China's the next years. With a higher growth rate, India will catch up with China. Also all the low cost jobs of China will go to India (among other countries) as the Chinese wages are now rising.

>America can barely hold their own society now.
America is much more stable than China. When was the last time America had to murder and starve millions of its own citizens? Or use tanks against protectors? Or imprisoned people who criticised the government?
China is backwards as hell, corrupt and riddied with nepotism at every level. The government can paper over the cracks for so long, but eventually people will want a vote and accountability.

they're insecure and have something to prove because of their history and genes. people criticize trump for being macho but he doesn't have anything on the type of shit that the chinese and their leaders are spewing

>like banning the name Muhammad in a native Muslim province and being an ethno-nationalist protectionist state?
These are bad things why?
If only the west would do such things.

not everyone cares about muh votes user
stop projecting your idealism onto everyone else in the world

>The growth has become pretty equal lately between China and India. With Modi's economic regime, India's growth rate will surpass China's the next years. With a higher growth rate, India will catch up with China. Also all the low cost jobs of China will go to India (among other countries) as the Chinese wages are now rising.
Dude, only 15% of Indians live in poverty now, yet 50% of Indians still shit in the street.

They have a lot to sort out first. Like toilets.

>Or use tanks against protectors? Or imprisoned people who criticised the government?
lol, like every decade?

China is happy to accommodate the Chinese Muslims, the Hui, who practice Islam quietly and don't start shit. It's the Uighur separatists that they take a hard line against because those people are causing problems. Plus China is already giving all sorts of goodies to its ethnic minorities like ethnic quotas and exemptions from stuff like the child limit.

>this is what burgerman believe
Chinese haven't forget their culture even in America, and you expect they forget it in their homeland?Just for your shallow America pop culture?

>why do western leftists defend China so much
How do you know they're western leftists? Last time I check, western leftists(mainly libercucks) don't really like China either.

>America can barely hold their own society
Well it's kinda true, Mr. 60%.
Your genders went from 2 to 62, but your white master race went from 80% to 60%. Plus with all the rampant PC, SJW, racism, feminazism, forced diversity, "sexual revolution"...etc. Your society sure looks so "awesome".

>Chinese haven't forget their culture even in America
I've not yet met a single overseas Chinese beyond the second generation in America who still knew shit about being Chinese. You'll only get maintenance of culture across three or more generations in places like Singapore and Malaysia where proportion of population and proximity to China is high enough to sustain it.

...

This is what the communist party wants to believe.

News for you. Second and third generation identify as American.