What caused Europe’s low birthrate starting 40 years ago?

google.com/amp/amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/26/muslim-majority-in-france-projected-in-40-years/

Within 40 years, given current demographic trends, the white population in France and the rest of old Europe will recede, creating a Muslim majority, a French researcher says.

The financier draws his conclusion from demographics. He assesses France’s white, or native, birthrate at 1.4 children per woman, compared with a Muslim rate of 3.4 to 4 children. France’s population today is 67 million. Unlike the U.S., France does not conduct a census on ethnic origin, but based on outside polling, some researchers, including Mr. Gave, believe the French population is already 10 percent Muslim, with 6.7 million people.

Dumb fat whore

>ex-pat Eastern Europeans
sounds like bullshit
eastern european countries aren't doing too hot with birthrates either

>I’m a woman and everything I don’t like sounds like bullshit
>I’m right even when I’m wrong

dumb neckbeard

Toulemon Laurent, Pailhé Ariane, Rossier Clémentine. "France: High and Stable Fertility." Demographic Research 19 no. 6 (July 2008) 503-556

Overall, social
differentials are small in comparison with the rest of Europe, and they have decreased
over the 20th century. The fertility of immigrants contributes little to the level of fertility
in France (Prioux 2005; Toulemon 2003; Toulemon 2006).

pg.504

The TFR of immigrants is
based on a non-consistent ‘synthetic cohort’ that would, at all ages, catch up for a
nonexistent delay. It thus overestimates the lifetime fertility of immigrants (Toulemon
2006). Taking into account the duration since migration to France to construct a
consistent index of lifelong fertility, the estimated excess fertility of immigrants,
compared with women born in France, was 0.46 children per women during the 1990s
(2.16 vs. 1.70). This is in contrast with the usual TFR, which suggests an apparent
difference of 0.85 for lifelong fertility (Table 1). The excess fertility of immigrant
women is thus less than 0.5 child per woman. Women from other European countries
have a lower total fertility than natives, with the exception of those born in Portugal.

It is often assumed that the high level of fertility in France is due to the immigrant
population. However, this assumption is not valid: The overall level of fertility in
France in the 1990s would be a mere 0.07 child per woman less if it were based only on
women born in France (Toulemon 2006). Furthermore, immigrants’ daughters born in
France have exactly the same total fertility as women born in France to mothers
themselves born in France (Toulemon 2003).
both pg. 522

"le french birthrate is due to immigration" is a meme spread by francophiles who are jealous of France's natality success.
Ex-pat Eastern Europeans is particularly stupid given that they have lower birth rates than the natives.

*spread by francophobes

What is the french birthrate when you take out non Europeans?

>dumb neckbeard

Do you know how to read? Read the 3rd paragraph.

>look mom I'm debating on Veeky Forums with factual information!

>France in the 1990s would be a mere 0.07 child per woman less if it were based only on
>women born in France
>1990s
Ahh so nearly 30 years ago, that’s convenient

Thank you user, this is the most informative and best-cited take on the issue I've yet encountered.

>>look mom I'm debating on Veeky Forums with factual information!

Wow, this really opened my eyes on the issue. Thank you for posting this.

prosperity and HID improvement.

All of the facts remain the same, immigrant fertility hasn't changed. Immigrants have a higher fertility at first, and their fertility then converges with the native population. Immigration into France causes a mild rise in fertility but it isn't enough to be significant as compared to the main source, high general fertility.

The day we strangle the last communist in the entrails of the last stormfag will be the day that Veeky Forums finally knows freedom

>Racial and ethnic censuses have been banned by the French government since 1978

Feminism is the only correct answer.

French will be a minority in France during your lifetime

>”Native french”

I'm getting 1500€ a month as a NEET just for existing. Tell me again about this supposed end of the welfare state.

>The day we strangle the last communist in the entrails of the last stormfag will be the day that Veeky Forums finally knows freedom

The welfare states removes incentives to have kids. People used to have kids to have them take care of them in old age (and also to earn income to the household from a young age).

>the end of the welfare state.
I don't understand what you're trying to say. You telling me the welfare state ended 40 years ago?

Feminism

Sorry /r9k/, but posting the female version of you isn't a winning debate tactic.

Yes, fertility rates among immigrants decline to "native french" levels quickly.

They don't have to take ethnic and racial censuses, just knowing immigrant, and native populations is sufficient to know what the conclusions are and that the idea that it is arabs pumping up the birth rate is wrong

not memeing when i say feminism and liberation of women

Good job leaving out the first part of your source:
>In France, as in most developed countries, immigrant women have higher fertility than women born locally (natives). The total fertility of non-national women, as measured by the usual TFR, is one child more than for women born in France (Legros 2003). However, this estimate, which is based on age-specific fertility rates among non- nationals, is misleading. First, when computed for all immigrant women, including those who have already acquired French nationality, the difference is not 1.0, but 0.85 more children per woman.

Also,
>Furthermore, immigrants’ daughters born in
France have exactly the same total fertility as women born in France to mothers
themselves born in France
This sounds great, but here’s the thing. France keeps bringing in non french women. And guess what, these women have a higher birthrate. So as long as France keeps bringing more french women in it doesn’t matter.

I’m so tired of your manipulative bullshit

>Yes, fertility rates among immigrants decline to "native french" levels quickly.
Doesn’t matter

>So as long as France keeps bringing more ***non*** french women in it doesn’t matter.

>Sorry /r9k/, but posting the female version of you isn't a winning debate tactic.
/r9k/ worships women

>the end of the welfare state.
>europe
kek

Anyway, the reason is just education. Higher education, better prospect means late term marriage/pregnancy and more concrete thought on the possibility of rearing a child.

Without education, you have tons of teen pregnancies who have no idea how to raise a child, let alone think about the repercussions of having a child.

Holy fuck you got destroyed. Stay mad frenchie in denial lmao

>Without education
You mean birth control

What I posted is correct. If you were actually willing to listen and read instead of just going for the answer you'd want, you'd see that .85 is exaggerated as well because it doesn't take into account the fact that women arriving in France have a child immediately. The actual numbers therefor fall to .44.

The fact that more non-French women show up is also not that important in regards to the total fertility rate, because it only has a one-time effect because their fertility rate then, as I noted, falls to the standard population fertility rate. It has a marginal effect, but one-time, not permanently.

You're the one who is ignoring facts.

Based on this data, france (a country with double-digit unemployment %) needs to bring in approximately 69 million immigrant women alone just to stabilize their birthrates to 2.00 per woman, I don't see how people think this is useful or sustainable

>The fact that more non-French women show up is also not that important in regards to the total fertility rate,
Opinion disregarded.

Education is the highest contributor. Giving condoms to people who dont know what it is or why they need it does not do anything except give them few coin bags.

It’s not. But the West’s leaders and the people who pay them don’t give a shit. They want to get theirs and then get out.

haha empirical facts are for losers aren't they? yeah sure on one side it can be proven with facts that immigrants make a marginal, 1-time contribution to the French TFR, but on the other side I have my memes from /pol/ which tell me that French is overwhelmed with waves of Muslims breeding like roaches!

No one actually needs to be taught how to use a condom.

>haha empirical facts are for losers aren't they?
not an argument
>yeah sure on one side it can be proven with facts that immigrants make a marginal, 1-time contribution to the French TFR,
You repeating yourself does not make your conclusion correct
>but on the other side I have my memes from /pol/ which tell me that French is overwhelmed with waves of Muslims breeding like roaches!
Opinion disregarded

I Kind of knew this was coming, yet I don't care as this doesn't proof me wrong. France is cucked just as any Western European Country is, the Muslim population is 13% and you can't tell me that it is not contributing to most births.

Also that cock is not so impressive.

You're the one who is repeating that I'm wrong with literally nothing else than just a discredited opening. You used a manipulative yourself selection from the text which was the author part-way through explaining why first generation immigration women have a .46 tfr over natives and posted the .85 stat, and then keep on repeating this despite your argument getting destroyed. Just like with everything else, this is just an example of /pol/ projecting onto other people their own intellectual failings.

Presumption of knowledge based on the fact that instructions are written on boxes, sexual education is mandatory for most first world countries, parent-child sex-ed talk, peer-to-peer sex-ed talk, internet, etc

Comon, this isn't rocket science. Just examine where your knowledge comes from a little bit more.

No don’t worry!

Immigrants have more children than native french but the children of immigrants have the same number of children as native french so it’s no big deal! Don’t think about the implications of this at all, just push it out of your mind.

sorry sweety but simply proclaiming you're not wrong, denying mathematical evidence which demonstrates the falsity of your statements, and declaring everyone else to be le cucked is also not so impressive.

This is a meme that has now been existing on Veeky Forums for too long.

except french muslims dont have 3.7 birthrates, in fact their birthrates are plummeting

youre all missing the point, making this into a migration problem is wrong, theres something about the culture and economy, something is killing the whole population, the immigrants barely factor into that, there were no muslim immigrants 40 years ago, something is seriously fucked

>I think people can’t learn how to use condoms without being officially educated on it

I’ll admit, putting on a condom is one of the most complicated things of all time

So Muslims have always been an estimated ~15% of the population of Metropolitan France since WW1 (if not earlier)?

>You're the one who is repeating that I'm wrong with literally nothing else than just a discredited opening.
Not true. You are a liar.
>You used a manipulative yourself selection from the text which was the author part-way through explaining why first generation immigration women have a .46 tfr over natives and posted the .85 stat, and then keep on repeating this despite your argument getting destroyed.
That wasn’t my argument. That was a minor part of the post. This is you manipulating the conversation.
>Just like with everything else, this is just an example of /pol/ projecting onto other people their own intellectual failings.
Not an argument

>youre all missing the point, making this into a migration problem is wrong, theres something about the culture and economy, something is killing the whole population, the immigrants barely factor into that

You're correct, but this ommits that the Muslim part of the population is continuously replenished by highly-fertile first gen immigrants in a way that the natives aren't - which will definitely have long-term consequences, given historical hostility between Europeans and Muslims

>youre all missing the point, making this into a migration problem is wrong
Lmao. It’s definitely part of a problem

>You're correct, but this ommits that the Muslim part of the population is continuously replenished by highly-fertile first gen immigrants in a way that the natives aren't - which will definitely have long-term consequences
NO NO NO just ignore this la la la I can’t hear you!

Oh, you misunderstand I'm not a Burger, but yes I am Francophile, you're right.
My Country is at least exactly as cucked as yours and those Migrants won't just melt away regardless of birth rates.

It doesn't matter if I am right or wrong the things stay as they are no matter how they are.
Please stop beeing delusional if that was your intention.

How many threads is this woman going to get btfo in before she realizes she’s wrong

If Israel nukes north africa and the middle east, there will be no fertile immigrants anymore.

You're not creative enough if you can't imagine the use of condom for anything other than sexual.

Start with "creative use of condom" or something similar on google search.

The specific knowledge/use of condom as barrier to virus transmitted via sexual contact from penis is a direct consequence of education. Not some "common sense" or "born with knowledge" or "god given knowledge".

>What is a shill

It literally does nothing except cause an increase for 1 generation.
If 1% of France's population came in as foreign immigrants, it would grow for 1 generation with the higher TFR. By the second generation that population growth stops except for additional 1st generation immigrants coming. French TFR is high because of native fertility, immigrant fertility makes a marginal contribution and it is one which lasts only one generation.

No, they immigrated into France. I haven't said anything about immigrant. I've told that immigrant fertility is not that important to French TFR, I've said literally nothing about immigration in general.

I have told no lies. I am entirely correct : TFR in France comes from native populations. Immigrant fertility does not have a significant effect on French TFR, because it is only more pronounced among generation 1 immigrants which aren't large enough to cause a significant increase in total fertility. Total immigrant numbers rise not because of their birthrate except in generation 1 (which ceases afterwards), but because of additional immigrant. If you don't like that immigration you can hold that opinion, but it is irrelevant to the subject of the tread, which is asking why European countries have low birth rates. Trying to conflate the two when it has been shown that the connection is tenuous and limited is dishonest yourself.

>You're not creative enough if you can't imagine the use of condom for anything other than sexual.
So like, water balloon fights? Are you fucking retarded?
>I need to be taught how to put on a condom
I guess that’s a yes

>Bray do God dad he saves da chosen beoble :DDDDDDDDDD
Kek

that has happened before, thats barely a factor, something else is happening, we never seen this before, the base population is going trough a complete demographic collapse, which may well be the first visible sign of systemic collapse, this has been going on for generations now, something is fundamentaly deeply wrong here, we dont have time to worry about the fucking immigrants, were dying out as we type this, theres around 3.5 million of my people left not counting diaspora, in 10 years what will the average age in central europe be? what in the balkans? something seriously wrong is happening for decades now, this is a problem a real problem, a couple million sirians dosent even begin to even remotely approach to how much of a fucked up situation this is fuck the sirians, even literaly fuck them why not, the european population is spontaneously going extinct across the board, you get what im saying, the fucking hell is going on

>It literally does nothing except cause an increase for 1 generation.
And then France brings in new immigrants
>and it is one which lasts only one generation.
Yes, for that particular immigrant. Your argument falls apart when you stop ignoring the fact that new immigrants come to France

>I have told no lies. I am entirely correct
Well there’s at least one
>: TFR in France comes from native populations. Immigrant fertility does not have a significant effect on French TFR, because it is only more pronounced among generation 1 immigrants
There are always new first generation immigrants
>Total immigrant numbers rise not because of their birthrate except in generation 1 (which ceases afterwards), but because of additional immigrant. If you don't like that immigration you can hold that opinion,
So I’m right and you’re wrong but I’m wrong and you’re right? Got it
>but it is irrelevant to the subject of the tread, which is asking why European countries have low birth rates. Trying to conflate the two when it has been shown that the connection is tenuous and limited is dishonest yourself.
Yes, our conversation has meandered from the original topic. That does not in any way mean I’m wrong or invalidate my point

Thanks for finally admitting I am correct. I know it’s very difficult for you, but lucky for you I can read between the lines.

You're confusing yourself.

I never said "I need to be taught" but rather the knowledge of the use of condom to protect yourself from sexually transmitted disease comes as a result of education.

The knowledge about STD is not common sense. Its not an innate knowledge humans have. Its also not a knowledge gained from supernatural/spiritual awakenings either.

Also protip, this is the internet and specifically an anonymous one. You don't need to dig deeper to save face.

>but because of additional immigrant. If you don't like that immigration you can hold that opinion, but it is irrelevant to the subject of the tread,

Holy fuckingshit women are brain dead.
>if our conversation starts off being about x and then later on we are talking about y, Then anything you say about y is meaningless because our original conversation was about x
Arguing with women is a waste of time.

>hey use this so you don’t get a disease
That’s all that needs to be said. Stop acting like that is some great amount of education

To be fair some blacks think diseases can be avoided with shaman magic and the white devil is trying to trick them.

shes right tho it is practicaly irrelevant

dont get me wrong all i care you can bbuild a 12 meter barbwire fence around your border and pogrom them all if you have the guts to do it, shit like that will inevitably occur here and there any way, humans fight humans and europe dosent realy do melting pots and after the last 2000 years of known history the whole continet is a patchwork of mass graves, thats just how we roll, all that is utterly and completely besides the point, do you even understand what demographic collapse means?

Nice reddit spacing. Here’s a pro tip, stop ducks by posting

This post is all over the place Jesus Christ. Are you drunk?

>you’re wrong except you’re right la la la nothing I’m saying has anything to do with the first thing I said do you even know what other idea is floating around in my empty head

Your own ignorance of you own knowledge is at play here. But that's okay, at least you have the knowledge now.

Billions of dollars are spent trying to educate people about the use of condom and the dangers of STDs. Yet, millions of people still don't know about it and forgo the consequences yearly.

If people only followed blind directions like "hey use this so you don't get a disease", then the world would be very different.

Numerous factors

Biggest was likely the significant increase in female work hours.

>Yet, millions of people still don't know about it and forgo the consequences yearly.
Literally where? Africa? The Middle East? America?
>If people only followed blind directions like "hey use this so you don't get a disease", then the world would be very different.
This is the most naive thing I’ve heard in a long time

nah i just had a couple of beers, but youre still missing the point

in the middle of the most prosperous, peacefull and stable period in known european history, a period wich is basicaly over and done with by the way, the population as such is going extinct

this is statisticaly projected to repeat itself in other parts of the world too just that its seems to be happening in the most developed countries first, but turks allready have subreplacement birthrates for decades as well, parts of india are also going trough demographic collapse, india for fuck sake, china is close to this as well, except there the state regulates the birthrate so no one knows what can happen

theres something going seriously wrong and the thread is about why, immigrant/antiimigrant is completely offtopic, this is about 50 years of subreplacement birthrates, this is continet wide demographic collapse

You're trying to link high immigration = high fertility, which is wrong. Your argument falls down upon it. Immigration and high fertility in France are not linked, except in a very marginal sense. Your argument that I am wrong because immigration into France continues is incorrect, because 1st generation immigrants only have a marginal impact upon French fertility, and 2nd generation immigrants no impact at all. The 1st generation immigrants have, are, and will be there, but their presence is not enough to explain high French fertility on its own, because their population has stayed relatively stable and is not large enough to make the proposed impact upon French birthrate.

You need to learn how to distinguish between immigration, and immigration fertility.

I'm not a woman. More importantly, again, you present no argument except to call me one.

>nah i just had a couple of beers
Do you weigh 90 pounds? If you think I’m going to have a serious conversation with you, you definitely are drunk

>You're trying to link high immigration = high fertility,
No, actually I’m not.

But please keep digging yourself deeper. I want everyone to know discussing things with you is pointless. So please, keep digging.

then you dont understand what demographic collapse is?

cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p0926-std-prevention.html
drfelix.co.uk/blog/std-comparison-across-europe/

Again, this is in the educated/developed countries.

African countries would be very much a disaster zone for STD due to the prevalent of rape/unsanitary conditions/explosive population growth/unprotected sex/etc.

>source says stds at an all time high
>sex education is also at an all time high

*record high

If you're willing to abandon any attempt to counter anything I've said, then cool, you can do that. I'm not exactly sure what you're trying to say then : that there are immigrants into France, and bringing more immigrants expands the total number of immigrants? Rather boorishly obvious.... The only point worth arguing is whether they have a high fertility, and I've decisively demonstrated that they don't beyond 1 generation afterwards.

Keep digging.

Improper sexual education is still "education". The rise of conservatives have changed the nature of "education". Instead of safe sex, its not abstinence only route.

It’s almost like your point about needing more education is not valid in this case.

Sex education in the West is at an all time high, and yet there has been a spike in stds? Perhaps this has nothing to do with lack of education and everything to do with the change of sex culture

Lack of cappacity of european young couples to provide their children

>Demise of Conservatism, Patriotism and Christianity.
68 revolution eventually ended with a conservative victory. And these things still exist in the west.