The Illuminati needs to depopulate the planet, so everyone on Earth is randomly assigned a number...

The Illuminati needs to depopulate the planet, so everyone on Earth is randomly assigned a number. NEO-FEMA goes around exterminating everyone with an even number.
The NEO-FEMA officer at your door gives you a forced choice between A, B and C, which have been randomly assigned to the options "add 1 to your number", "subtract 1 from your number" and "leave your number alone".
You blindly pick A. He then says B would result in your death, and offers to change your choice to C. Do you accept?

I choose D, shoot the guy and go innawoods.

You become nothing but NWOlent and a notch on the NEO-FEMA officer's gun. Game over.

come to Veeky Forums
find /x/ threads

>/x/ wants to try the Monty Hall problem
you must go back to the

Is it the Monty Hall problem or is it the reverse, you smug fuck?

It is Monty Hall problem, with even better odds (assuming that the officer is telling the truth)

>your number is even
>only 1 option can kill you, and officer tells you which one
>you win whether you change or not

>you number is even
>2/3 if you change

The odds are 1/2 for both odd and even
So you have a 5/6 chance of living if you change your number

What if they killed everyone with an odd number?

>He then says B would result in your death,

did he randomly pick A,B or C? or just the two that you didn't pick? or was his decision not random at all?

more like the amirite

So pick C is the only answer?

He says B would result in your death, which implies that adding 1 to a number would result in an even number. So why would you ever pick A, since subtracting will also give an even number?

>43
Then this thread will finally die.

without any more info, the prior probability that you picked correctly is 1/2

if you pick correctly, then c has zero chance
if you pick incorrectly, then p(c) = 1

so it's 1/2 (i think). fuck i feel retarded

in other words, it doesn't matter if you switch or not

wait, no.... wrong again.

>tfw /x/ stumps Veeky Forums

it would normally be 1/2, but you gain information by knowing that you couldn't have picked stay same and been wrong.

2/3 by switching same as monty hall

wait, again, no.

Why is Thom Yorke in that image?

wait, yes. 2/3 by switching, final answer.

How is this science or math?

its a different version of the monty hall problem, and easily one of the more interesting threads on sci

>muh tawpics

you know that you didn't pick stay same (as in, your number would not change, not referring to the choice of staying with A) and are wrong

1/3 so then you either picked stay same and were correct, in which case p(c) = 0. this is because the other two choices are wrong

1/3 or you picked change and were incorrect. in this case, p(c) = 1, since the officer reveals that b is the other "change"

1/3 or you picked change and were correct, so p(c) = 1, since b must be stay the same.

This is like the Monty Hall problem except there's a 50% chance that it's 2 goats 1 car or 2 cars 1 goat.

Since you don't know what the initial setup is then there's no way of knowing whether switching options is advantageous.

Wait no, that's bullshit, disregard.

this is tricky, but you gain the same information as in the monty hall problem, i think. so you are better off switching.

what the fuck is le ok computer man doing there

These are the possibilities

>Your number is even so +0 kills you

A is +1, B is +0, C is -1. You are safe switching or staying.
A is -1, B is +0, C is +1. You are safe switching or staying.

>Your number is odd so +1 or -1 kills you

A is +1, B is -1, C is +0. You are safe switching but dead staying.
A is -1, B is +1, C is +0. You are safe switching but dead staying.
A is +0, B is +1, C is -1. You are dead switching but safe staying.
A is +0, B is -1, C is +1. You are dead switching but safe staying.

Safe to switch 3/6 times, Safe to stay 3/6 times.

do you know what your own number is?

serious mode:

it depends on whether you know your own number ahead of time. if your number is even, then your prior is 2/3, in which case, knowing that b is wrong means that you're already correct. switching is not advantageous or disadvantageous.


if your number is odd, then it's 1/3. picking randomly has a 2/3 chance of moving you into an even number. this is the same as monty hall, so your best bet is to swtich.

in the expectation, switching gives (1/2)*(2/3) + (1/2) = 5/6

so pretty much what
said

If B kills you, A does as well. But he's obviously lying so choose to not change and kill myself first just to ruin his plan.

This. Can't believe people are this retarded to realize that A and B are the fucking same.

What if your number is odd and A has been assigned to leave your number the same.

Did you read the OP?

If your number is even, it doesn't matter
if your number is odd, changing gives you 2/3 of a chance
so changing gives you mathematically 2/3 probability of not getting an even number

A gun would probably give you better chances of survival anyway

Is that Thom Yorke in the far right?

Do you have any single fact to back that up?

ayy thom yorke on the right

(OP)
How did Sci get stumped so easily
Its a riddle

The answer is you start with an even number, lets say for example its 2

You choose A.
>2+1 = 3
Congratulations, you're now odd at 3 and safe from Neo-FEMA's wrath

He THAN tells you that if you CHOOSE B, it would result in your death.
>3-1=2
If you choose B , you're back at 2, your a dumbass for not listening, and you're dead
He never states you would change you're original choice

If you choose to change your ORIGINAL choice to C and keep your number at an even 2, you die.

So no, you should stick with your original blind choice of A and you will survive this specific scenario every time.

The key wording of the riddle is "changing your choice."

I'm going back to

I tell him I'm part of the RWDS and blast a cap in his nigger ass before driving down to The Wall to piss on Mexico.

read the question again dum dum

What do you think sexual liberation was intended to do?

question wiser, you should choose not to accept to change your answer.
everyone else is posting probabilities when there is a set answer.

This is a bullshit thread. But it is definitely maths related. That being said you must have missed the Remote Viewing threads earlier in the week.

Destroy the family unit, thus the society in which sexual liberation is taking place.

*fluoride-stares at you*

don't you ever state at me or my carbon's hydrogen ever again

In all cases, case is invalid if B does not kill you.
Even kills you

A +1
B -1
C 0
if number is Even, B saves you. INVALID
if number is Odd, B kills you. Valid, switching to C saves.

A +1
B 0
C -1
if Even, B kills you. Valid, switching to C saves.
if Odd, B saves you. INVALID

A -1
B +1
C 0
if Even, B saves you. INVALID
if Odd, B kills you. Valid, switching to C saves.

A -1
B 0
C +1
if Even, B kills you. Valid, switching to C saves.
if Odd, B saves. INVALID

A 0
B +1
C -1
if Even, B saves. INVALID
if Odd, B kills. Switching to C kills.

A 0
B -1
C +1
if Even, B saves. INVALID
if Odd, B kills. Switching to C kills.

Number of valid switches that save: 4
Number of valid switches that kill: 2

Switching saves in 4/6 or 2/3 of cases.

>>>/x

>/x
>not /x/
gb2reddit

>when you realize OP's pic is people looking at you in disbelief when you say something increadibly stupid through a conspiracy theorist's eyes

>implying they won't just kill all cis white males before doing anything

Why can't you take think larp shit to /pol/ or /x/

conspiracy cancer