- Anyone here have a successful and durable experience in forex trading ?

this guy is the person perpetuating the meme that forex trading is hard/impossible.

>muh market makers
>muh hft and algo traders are the only people making money
>no way to compete

I know multiple people trading simple strategies for a profit 3 years in a row now. Low variance strategies that are 99.999...% certain to be profitable at this point considering the sample size. Strategies that complete numbskulls could easily learn and execute in a short amount of time. Have lived with one of these traders and tried it out for a couple of months for fun, it was easy. I quit because I made more money elsewhere and it wasn't my passion though.

I have a proven edge and the entire point i'm trying to get across is how fucking easy it is to have an edge. Are you seriously sitting here assuming i'm trying to tell you that you don't need an edge to trade forex? like how stupid are you? fucking christ you're a moron.

>and the entire point i'm trying to get across is how fucking easy it is to have an edge

Lmao, 95% of traders fail in the spot fx, 2% stay afloat on breakeven, the other 3% make money more or less consistently. Building a strat is insanely hard, extracting an edge out of it has been the most difficult thing i've ever have to do in my life. Just because it can be summed in a few lines of code, it doesn't mean it's "easy".
And i still use it as a tool along with fundamental analysis and order flow reading. On its own, every single strategy is worth jackshit

>I quit because I made more money elsewhere and it wasn't my passion though.

Sure you did sweetcheeks. Gotta love how you don't even know what variance is

>let's pretend we make money trading and argue about things we don't know anything about

get a job you slobs. especially you, OP.

I have close friends trading practically the same system to this day and they've been trading forex for a living for 3+ years :)

Way less than 2% are winning poker players, doesn't mean poker isn't easy. (obviously way harder than forex though). Less than 0.0001% of poker players are winning at midstakes+.

Poker is incomparable to forex though as in poker you cannot have a system that ignores the complexity of the game when you start playing midstakes. Learning the complexities of the game takes a lot of time and effort, but it's not hard. In forex you can literally learn strategies that ignores 99% of the complexities of the market and you can make money knowing nothing but your own little bubble world.

Just because only 1% succeeds doesn't make something hard, surely you must understand that.

bwhahaha =D

The problem with you retard is that you daytrade forex and get anally devestated by algorithms.

Your positions should typically be between 1-3 months if you want to have any lasting success, which by the way is not in your best interest if you're a poorfag retail trader.

how many times are you going to autisticly make this fucking thread you fucking autist

nah it is all about having an edge and exploiting an edge generally isn't 'easy' - edges are eroded when they're traded and as a result finding and exploiting them (whether by speed, better analysis) is inherently competitive

people who don't grasp this like to put forth the notion that it is all very simple, people could stick to some very simple rules and it is muh psychology, muh risk management that screws it up for them - those can be factors but the main issue is lack of an edge... if it were simple to find and exploit one any idiot could just automate said strategy and leave it to it - in the real world that doesn't happen - unless they're using a speed advantage automated strategies need constant refinement and generally aren't simple

>for the most part the reason people who put in the work are losing money is purely because of discipline issues.

this is nonsense, mostly people are losing money because they have no edge

forex is dangerous.

I remember that it was a fuck off a decade

not if you hedge correctly
which is the entire point of the forex
to hedge
and what is it that's being hedged against?
currency fluctuations
mostly for big corporations who have to do large currency exchanges to continue doing business in the way they are accustomed to
and the key is
FUTURES
instead of currency pairs

Can you stop making these threads you autistic brown fuck

you have lost a lot of money ?

no in the context of these threads the posters are generally speculators, the aim for them isn't to hedge exposure to currencies but take on exposure to currencies in order to (speculatively) make a profit

multinational corporations use FX for hedging purposes (mostly to reduce the variance in future cashflows overseas when repatriating to their base currency)

if you're claiming retail trader's 'hedge' then what exactly are they hedging against?

unless you're one of these muppets who things two simultaneous opposing trades is somehow different to simply closing a position

I have lost money at forex - more of an overall leverage-issue. Never traded that pair. Man I feel bad for those how did

Any tips you can give someone trying to learn? Books or anything of that sort to get into?

>i have no idea how to use google
The core concept is to 1)Identify a big trend on the high TF 2)Understand the macro reasons behind it 3)Switch to a lower tf, to make sure the trend on this tf is aligned with the bigger tf 4)Switch to a lower tf and fade the rallies/rips in the direction of the main trend 5)Enjoy the ride, learn where to place protective stops

Part 4 will require a strategy with rigid rules to entry and place stops. Make sure you backtest a large enough sample to define some valid entry rules.Part 5 will require lots of experience, hundreds of hours glued in front of a computer screen, and a decent understanding of the fundamentals in play.
Your win rate should be pretty low (mine is less than 24%) but you will be left with a lot of small losses and monster like wins.

You will see very few people using such a strategy, because the average retail is adamant in his convinction that high win rate=success. It's the main reason why ALGOMASTAPROINDIANSUPER 3.0 and similars get flushed out quickly after making a killing. Long tail distribution,you see. And psychologically speaking, it can be demanding soaking a lot of losses, holding your positions for weeks, losing months, and handling huge price swings in your PnL.
As per the rules, figure them out yourself. Intelligent people reading this simple post will understand and find a way.Shouldn't take longer than a few months if you do your homework. The others will keep begging for rules, falling for memes such as technical analysis,elliott waves and psychology.
Or making the same thread for months.

Thanks for the info. I'm well aware of Google but I like to ask what people personally recommend instead of me flailing about aimlessly without any real direction. I can extract a lot from this. Thanks.

Anything from Nassim Taleb
Anything from Stanley Kroll
Anything from Jack Schwager
Mind over Markets
Inside the house of money
More money than god

But only because you asked nicely

>buy eur/usd
>sell eur/usd

Can't do this in America.

>Anything from Nassim Taleb
This.

ah so it is the very confused retail FX 'trader' version of 'hedging' you're talking about

what exactly do you expect to achieve from being able to open two opposing positions simultaneously - aside from having to cross the spread more often (i.e. give away money) it is the same as being completely flat

You can't do a proper hedge with currency pairs. I never said you could. I said in America, you can't open a long and a short on the same pair. If you try to hedge pairs, you're fucking retarded.

How is everyone fucking stupid today?

I don't know, why are you so fucking stupid today?

Why would you even want to do that? What the fuck are you even talking about in the first place re: hedging?

this might be more practical

Foreign exchange is dominated by big players doing actual hedging. Foreign exchange doesn't make money. (unless you can push things around)

You can realize appreciation, but you're forgoing risk management doing so. You never want to expose capital in the forex for the purpose of appreciation.

no it is dominated by big banks who act as market makers

some of their customers use them to hedge - mostly the treasury departments of large companies

other customers use them to speculate

trading in foreign exchange can make money, plenty of large CTAs make rather a lot of money from it... and they're following rather than pushing around

another poster pointed out, quite correctly, that trading forex is risky... you then posted a slightly incoherent post where you made a very vague claim about 'hedging' which you're seemingly unable to explain

forex can be your worst nightmare.

Without the need to hedge, there would be no forex.

>CTA's make a lot of money
>they're following, not pushing

Can you cite this claim?

The point is that the forex is a risk reducing tool. You don't get income from currencies. Betting on currency appreciation is throwing risk management out the window.

Risk management is the first thing you want to have for your capital. Then, after that, you go for income. You wouldn't be focusing on betting for currency appreciation if you were getting income from your exposed capital.

The people who make any sort of consistent money in the forex get fucked hard when they take losses. You can listen in on this when you listen in on conference calls of your bucket shop if they happen to be public.

>Without the need to hedge, there would be no forex.

you can say that about most futures and options exchanges too... actual hedgers/end users make up a small amount of volume

it is still completely as the thread is about trading FX not using it to hedge - I doubt the posters in here have a variety of foreign currency cashflows they need to hedge their exposure to. So in the context of the other poster who pointed out quite rightly that trading FX is risky you're still making no sense at all

>Can you cite this claim?

perhaps you haven't heard about trend followers - they're quite passive and aim to minimize market impact - see Aspect, Winton, AHL, Systematica etc..

>You don't get income from currencies

Yes you do - it is called interest and has been around since biblical times

>
The point I'm making is that people have entirely no clue what they are doing. You have a better shot in the equities market.

>can you cite this claim
>"you haven't heard of x?"

Nice citations.

>he buys a currency pair for the interest

The thing is, is that it's not the currency that's producing interest.

>The point I'm making is that people have entirely no clue what they are doing. You have a better shot in the equities market.

well I wouldn't dispute that, however that is the first time you've made that statement

>The thing is, is that it's not the currency that's producing interest

yes it is - at a basic level an FX trade is the combination of a loan and a deposit

>Nice citations.

they're reasonable enough examples of big trend followers, they are proven track records making money trading futures and FX forwards, their returns are correlated enough that their strategies are fairly similar (in fact some of them share common founders- the founder of winton and two founders of aspect originally founded AHL) They're all essentially following the same passive trend following model (albeit with slight tweaks to it) and they've consistently made money with it, managing billions in capital, for years...

and no they don't get 'fucked hard' when they take losses, they're not very leveraged at all, if anything they're oversubscribed and have too much capital

>the point of forex is to hedge

Currencies don't produce income. If I held your currency, you wouldn't magically get interest in your account. I'd have to personally pay it. At which rate, I'd choose.

>proven track records
>doesn't provide a source for it

I stopped reading at proven track record. Either provide some links or kill yourself.

okay so i read the last sentence

the reason why retail forex traders who make a lot of small wins get fucked hard when they make a loss is because of expected value. If you have a 90% win rate, the 10% you lose will eat your 90% win rate. This is because of your "risk reward" stop loss. The math is right there.

>Currencies don't produce income. If I held your currency, you wouldn't magically get interest in your account. I'd have to personally pay it. At which rate, I'd choose.

no, you don't get to chose the market collectively does... if you don't want to trade then don't

>I stopped reading at proven track record. Either provide some links or kill yourself.

like I said you're seemingly unaware of their existence

here is one of the firms mentioned above:

ctaperformance.com/wntn

you've still not explained your hedging nonsense that started this exchange...

wow your link literally proved me right
it's about the futures
not about currency pairs
read your own fucking link dude

>the reason why retail forex traders who make a lot of small wins get fucked hard when they make a loss is because of expected value. If you have a 90% win rate, the 10% you lose will eat your 90% win rate. This is because of your "risk reward" stop loss. The math is right there.

citation needed re: the distribution of returns for retail traders - I doubt very many of them are 90% wins 10% losses... most will be all over the place

the main reasons you'll get fucked hard on a single trade are too much leverage or a big big move (such as the CHF one) whether your overall strategy is +ev or -ev is beside the point

>confused by title of the fund

they're one of the world's biggest CTAs - they trade futures and FX forwards systematically as I've already pointed out... you're absolutely clueless

It's literally the risk reward that quantifies your expected value, which always ends up the same.

You can't actually quantify your chances of making 25 pips from price x on date y.

Dude, it's not currency pairs they are trading. They aren't fucking around with lots of eur/usd. they are playing with FUTURES

I'll use your own quote here

>Either provide some links or kill yourself.

re: your claimed distribution of returns for retail traders

I'm not disputing that they mostly lose I'm disputing the 90% wins 10% losses... being typical of them

you'd never even heard of them until I posted... and no they trade both futures and FX forwards - they've done this for years...

>It's literally the risk reward that quantifies your expected value

no, that can affect your EV but your actual edge is the important bit

2015 at 13 may I stared with 100pln, two months after I had over 17k pln. Traded on xm.com with 888:1 laverage. Lost all money just befor wedding day.. To much on head tried to tarade adhoc... Now I know that its all possible. I used fibs and price action. Prof on myfxbook.com

currency forwards are still future contracts they aren't currency pairs

the math is literally
literally
the risk reward
like
if you ahve a stop loss of 10 pips to win and 100 to lose, you'll always break even in the long run, minus the fees.

quantify your edge in the forex. go ahead. i want to see it.

so you've got nothing to back up your claim for retail traders making 90% wins and 10% losses... good going

>currency forwards are still future contracts they aren't currency pairs

no, they're not - they're traded OTC just like spot albeit settling at 3 months, 6 months etc.. rather than 2 days

>quantify your edge in the forex. go ahead. i want to see it.

I develop futures trading strategies actually but supposing I did work on FX why would I post any models here?

The math is literally within the risk reward. 90 + 10 = 100
no edge

>still can't quantify an edge using currency pairs
>this means that advisors using futures contracts is the same thing

so you're not able to provide a citation for your claim... I'm not disputing that someone could trade with a target of 10 and a stop of 100 pips... that is totally irrelevant, but since you're being deliberately obtuse there is little point in carrying on this conversation

though just FYI you seem to be misunderstanding the concept of an edge, the way you structure your trades mostly affects the variance of your returns rather than the edge - for example there is no edge on a roulette table regardless of how you structure your bets... you might change the nature of the payoffs/the variance of your returns by doubling up with some martingale system for example but each bet still has the same -EV regardless

there is no reason in theory why you couldn't have a system with a target of 10 pips and a stop at 100 pips if you did have an edge, sufficient to beat costs (clearing fees + spread) then. Sure if you entered trades at random then such a system might well end up with the payoff you describe for retail traders (actually thanks to the spread there would be far fewer than 90% wins) but that is assuming no edge in the first place and therefore no business trading. Whether you appreciate that or not who knows but the claims you've currently made re: ev are rather misguided.

It's literally math. If you're ten pips away from your limit loss, you're 90% more likely to hit the limit loss than a stop loss that's 90 pips away. You'll only have a 10% chance to hit the stop loss.

For every nine times you win, you win 90 pip, but for the tenth time you roll the dice, you lose 90.

This is how you literally have to treat the forex for face value. If you have no other means to quantify, then you simply don't have means to quantify. You don't have the money for the research and the connections to get the information to perform analysis on. If you did, you wouldn't be sitting here on a fucking Indian Designated Shitting Board.

you don't seem to understand the concept of an edge

yes what you say would hold true if we assume random entries and exits, zero costs and zero spread...

it is totally irrelevant to the discussion, you're being completely obtuse again - you made a claim about how retail traders trade and you're unable to provide evidence for it... obviously we know most of them lose money but you've provided nothing to support that they mostly make lots of small winning trades and a few big losing trades other than simply stating that they do and that 'it's math'

quantify your edge with currency pairs
go ahead
do it

I've not claimed I personally have an edge trading FX, you seem to suffer from short term memory loss

>I develop futures trading strategies actually but supposing I did work on FX why would I post any models here?

any evidence for your claim that retail traders typically make 90% winning trades yet? Why not 80% or 70%? you've dodged the question a few times

exactly
you can't quantify your edge
get outta here kid
nothing personel

> typically make 90% winning trades yet? Why not 80% or 70%? you've dodged the question a few times

I've never said anything about this. How are people so bad at reading comprehension.

it was your explanation for retail traders getting fucked...

in reality it is use of leverage and/or extreme moves that fucks them... and that CHF move was extreme enough that stops are irrelevant and would be slipped massively at most bucketshops

as for reading comprehension:

>you can't quantify your edge

no... I've stated I don't trade FX not that I can't quantify my edge which can be estimated empirically

you seem to think an edge is simply some function of where you chose to exit trades, if that were the case you could simply enter trades at random

Can't believe you left out the millionaire maker, Mark Fisher's books.

Don't forget pic related. Key to day trading is on page 31.

good book but getting a bit old

Euan Sinclair's books are well worth a read

>I can't quantify my edge

Edge is easy to calculate: Winning trades divided by all trades. You can do it on your phone.

Odds are probability of success. Use your own definition of success.

It's the Kelly Criterion.

Edge X Odds tells you how much to risk on the trade. You can add additional inputs for additional safety.

I'm not so worried about how much my traders make. I'm more worried how much they will lose within approved loss limits.

>good book but getting a bit old
Which one is getting old? If Fisher's he's had some additions to the original.

@trader1sz made a million in 2 years trading. He started with 2K. Fucking kills it. Loads of us do and we all use The Inner Circle Traders free course of his website. All free, so just watch them all over and over while taking notes and practise.

How come you never went prop with such a good strategy?

>The Inner Circle Trader
It's incredible. You two have been literally arguing for a whole day about pure nothing. You two cocks know nothing about statistics, you just make shit up on the go. Lmaoed at Kelly Criterion and the cuck who tried to calculate odds.
For the record, edge=expectancy per trade, and cannot be calculated without knowing the risk reward ratio.

And if you are actually making money, and not just making shit up you shouldn't be able to give an exact estimate of it, just one empirically based on your previous trades (good trading systems usually leave room for the right side of the tail aka unlimited profits made by catching the whole trend).

For everyone else out there wondering why 95% of traders lose money and/or go bankrupt, there you go.

>You guys have no education whatsoever, never saw a single one of you compiling a shred of statistics
ironic comma splice

Lol that's what OP gets for posting this thread for the millionth time; two retarded idiots arguing for an entire day.

Ok so I told you guys is update my experience with forex broker inc. I deposited 400$ and quickly traded it up to 2300 dollars just placed a withdrawl it should be here by weds I'll keep you guys posted also just opened an account with Sandton direct they offer 1000:1 leverage I'm going to deposits 600$ and try them out next wish me luck

hi can i give you money so i can become forex milionarrie in a few time :) u look very good with forex trading god bless

>know nothing of statistics
>am a professional poker player

You guys keep posting my bedroom your a bunch of goofs XD

Sure I'm the [email protected] guy in this chart it was an easy win I would have been dumb not to buy. It was an obviOus head and shoulders market reversal in play

>obvious head and shoulders market reversal

But it was.... And I made over 409% in less than a day from one trade. Granted it was 500:1 leverage but I'm still a good forex trader it's all I do and play Dota.

See the chart see that I was right remember a month ago I posted in one of these threads telling you guys I know how to do this. Idk how but I always win I just know what to do I see it all visually and I know where it's going to go it's just instinct for me. You could say I have IT whatever IT is but I'll enjoy the new Cessna 185 I'm bout to buy. Still don't have a nice car but in Alaska airplanes are king!

>he doesn't talk to someone directly when negotiating a price
>CALLS HIMSELF A FUCKING TRADER

>The math is literally within the risk reward. 90 + 10 = 100
>no edge
>IMA PROFESSIONAL POKER PLAYER

Playing for a few pennies with your autistic cousin on sunday afternoon doesn't exactly qualifies as PROFESSIUNAL POKER PLAYA XD but eh
In case you want to ever get serious and stop memeing

>Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

Which tells you how much money you can make ON AVERAGE and ON A LARGE ENOUGH SAMPLE from a single trade.
This formula will be not 100% reliable if you are doing things right. Why? Because you can have from time to time a few outliers yielding outsized profits.
Now stop making shit up before people actually take you seriously and put money on the line
Kelly Criterion is unreliable in trading because unlike fixed odds betting, prices do not exhibit a normal distribution (aka predictable in terms of standard deviation from the mean).
But you had to pull something out of your ass to sound important on 4chinz, so hey

>i just know where price is headed
>idk how but im the best trader around bruuuuu

ah yes thank you for the email, i will now send you all of my rupees so i can become forex millionaire like you allah bless :)))))))

Why would I talk to someone directly? And negotiate a price? It's much faster to just close a position when I'm in profit it can be done quicker than any conversation + I'm in Alaska . Who would I talk to?

Maybe idk I can't trade for to many people

nono how much can i send u then if it is too few i can send you 10k dolla to become rich thanks yo you :)))))

>a few pennies

If that's what you call a few hundreds, sure.

As a poker player, I'm able to actually quantify the probability of winning with cards. In the markets? I don't have the data nor the ability to analyze such data. That's why I just build a risk neutral dividend portfolio.

>normal distribution meme

Fat tails are accounted for in many models. Even then, it's not something that people like you and I would put in our risk models. The chances are just too low and we don't hold enough money.

The current quote is the last trade to go through. The next quote is the next trade that goes through, regardless of the current quote.

You do know how the forex was played for the majority of it's lifetime? Through people calling each other working at the banks.

Like, if you don't know this, you NEED to literally study the market history in the 80s and 90s. Go watch some fucking tudor videos or the nick leeson movie.

It's like flipping a house: the money isn't made in the sell, but the buy. When you can negotiate a price under current market value, you can easily sell for market value!

Too bad you can't negotiate with a fucking computer screen.

I wouldn't recommend 10k
I'd recommend 10% if you really wanna make $ why don't you just buy Trumpcoin ??? ;)

You are amusingly oblivious to how autistic you sound.
You need to cover your ignorance of basic concepts with verbose posts.
Shoo shoo retard, be gone and take your stupidity with you while the grown ups talk

>wahh i don't know what im talking about
>so im just gonna call some user an autist and complain that he's shitposting
>The Post

Is that legal? Also I was still like 2 years old in the 90 s but I can't play video games while talking to people. I can't alt tab to a chart if I'm busy talking to some guy trying to negotiate a price that seams kinda a waste because the markets so volatile. It's easier and takes less time to just move 100,000 in a trade play a couple games of Dota then exit the trade with 140,000 no human contact... Just the way I like it in my lil autistic NEET life paradise

>LOOK MOM I POSTED MEME ARROWS NOW I AM FOREX MASTA TRADER PRO XD

You guys the autism jokes arnt funny. I really am autistic because my grandpa was poisoned from agent orange and it affected my mom and gave me autism. But I'm still better at forex tradeing than most.... Idk how tho I just keep making money

nigga they didn't have charts back in the day

>MOMMY SOMEONES OUTSHITPOSTING ME
>I WAS LIKE "NOW THIS IS SHITPOSTING"
>AND THEN I REALIZED I WASN'T ACTUALLY A SITH LORD

I don't care about back in the day then my whole thing is visual. I'm very sensitive to geometry. I can play any instrument to without even practicing just by triangles I see visually. It's the same when I trade forex I just see the triangles and I complete it and it makes me lots of money. I'm really antisocial and have horrible people skills I don't think I could negotiate a price with a real human.