Hi Veeky Forums, in another thread I proposed that we hold weekly business discussions for those of us who prefer more... conventional business. The purpose of these threads will be to discuss current business and economic-related affairs.
I intend for the subject of these threads to be decided by majority vote, but since this is the first of its kind I will pick a topic I know a little about (so that at least some of us will learn something).
Let's talk about military aggression in the South China Sea. As you may know, China has been showing signs of aggression in the region. It's been laying claim to various pieces of land - one that is particularly noteworthy is its claim on Spratly Islands - a cluster of islands boasting rich oil reserves. This island is far away enough and is occupied by another sovereignty (Philippines).
Obviously, this already spells good news for defence contractors, but something else that is noteworthy is that this area is home to really, really small Asian countries - none of which really have the military capacity to defend any sort of claim it exerts on the islands. Without the American military keeping peace in the region, China is free to use military might to suppress the Asian countries in the region.
We know how Trump has talked about withdrawing the American military from around the world (let's refrain from participating in political arguments here). Should he win, we can expect a rapid increase in business for military contractors - both in the USA and otherwise.
As the post is the first of its kind, any sort of feedback is appreciated. Too specific a topic, etc.
James Hughes
I more or less agree with yout,but it's all dependent on Trump getting elected. Your topic is also too specific.
Nicholas Long
Too black and white. The best outcome for both parties is a continuation of the current agreement. Trump just wants more compensation. Who would pay and who wouldn't? There would be plenty of opportunity to cough up the money before a single soldier was permanently moved.
Luis Martin
TTIP? i think it's an asshole thing and should be burned. fuck murricans and their gmo pushing and stupid ass dcma and other bullshit lasw that they try to push on the rest of the world! when will the murrican people realize that corporations are fucking in the ass them nonstop?
Cooper Scott
Well, true. But military contractors could profit from any kind of conflict, really - I brought up Trump removing the troops as an extreme example (if he does,the value of defence companies would go through the roof).
Consider the fact that China is not only tangled in one territorial conflict - there's also the conflict over Fishing Island and the Paracels Islands (involving Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam). If the Spratly Islands are taken into consideration, China is involved in territorial spats with 6 other countries, with at least two of these building up their military (Japan and S. Korea). These are recent updates - and they are the Asian countries most likely to buy from American defence companies (and the few that can afford it, as well).
I think that conflict is likely to happen - and even if it doesn't, the growing tensions should certainly reflect at least a noticeable bump in the value of some of the defence contractors. Tensions aren't yet bad enough that I'll buy big on the next trigger, but I'm keeping an eye out.
Ayden Wood
>I think that conflict is likely to happen Maybe. But maybe instead, there's some long, drawn out truce/business agreement that occupies countless news cycles. Oh, and the US, along with token representation from the various small players in the area, will take the lead role.
Henry Wilson
Perhaps there will never be a war or even a scuffle, but there's still money to be made as long as the defence contractors are getting orders. And that's why we're here.
Mason Taylor
Topic is weird IMO. There are always tensions around the globe. Why is this one likely to cause increased defense spending?
Lucas Kelly
You're an idiot. Even if the situation deteriorated (which it won't), military conflicts are fought with equipment that was purchased 5-20 years ago.
Luis Peterson
>there's still money to be made as long as the defence contractors are getting orders Perhaps, but I haven't played military contractors since the Iraq War. That shit reminds me of the pharmaceutical sector.
Sebastian Diaz
Cos this one is different - instead of having little countries in the Middle East scuffle, we have superpowers involved in the mix. Althought we don't hear about them very often, some of the biggest militaries are found in Asia - Japan, India, China, S. Korea... etc.
It is not a question of whether or not it will increase defence spending - it already has. My point was whether or not it will cause FURTHER defence spending increases.
I literally just googled this and found a few sources - one of which was posted after this thread was made.
... Maybe you have some reading to do. You can start with some of the sources I've posted.
Christopher Martin
Well, I'm going in. I'll let you know what happens ;)
Bentley Cook
Good luck.
Chase Wilson
>cites "multiple" articles >actually all the same article >citing the same unverified source Stay poor Veeky Forums.
Evan Gomez
Ok sorry, I assumed we were talking about American defense spending.
So which Western defense contractors are supplying the Filipino government?
Jace Ramirez
I think it's for the most part a non-topic because Beijing isn't going to tolerate alienating its' satellites and destabilizing its' relations with the former Allies in such fashion. The most they'll do is conduct naval exercises in the area. If a altercation gets fabricated it'll most likely be done in order to achieve domestic consequences on both sides. China's producing more than enough exports to cover petroleum expenses so they're probably not dying to turn some islands into puny oil producers.
If I know Trump he'd bolster relations with China while spewing rhetoric about China being the devil to satisfy the masses if the topic gets too hot.
Jaxon Jones
>doesn't do his own research >calls others idiots >makes unbacked claims >gets corrected about how defence spending works >stay poor you fucking idiots
kek bye
Blake Collins
I'm not too sure about the Filipino government - desu it's a rather small and poor country (compared to the rest of the powers involved in this conflict). I'm not saying we can't profit off an increased Filipino defence spending... But I'd rather focus on the big players, you know what I mean?
Also, the Philippines are kinda conflict-adverse. Their next president Rodrigo Duterte is a fucking psychopath but he's talked about backing down from the claim dispute... So yeah.
Easton Butler
>they're probably not dying to turn some islands into puny oil producers.
And you are correct. But personally I really don't think it's about the islands. It's about "face", something very important to the Chinese people. They won't tolerate being made to look weak, with them being the biggest superpower in the Asian Pacific and all. I do think it's about a show of force - but if tensions escalate with the US presence and all...
Whether or not war will break out is anyone's guess, but like you, I don't think it will. What I'm betting on is its naval exercises being threatening enough to warrant more defence spending (like it did the previous time it flexed its military might).
I'm not saying that I'll be happy if a war breaks out. War is never a good thing, but hey, if it's inevitable, might as well cash in, right?
Cooper Lopez
Phillipines was tongue in cheek, because I'm pretty skeptical of this whole premise. But hey, better than another scamcoin thread. SO..
Which U.S. defense contractors are supplying the governments you guys are talking about with the specific armaments they are stockpiling?
Anthony Kelly
>with the specific armaments they are stockpiling
Cmon bro,do you think I'll be here telling you guys about all of this if I had solid numbers? Obviously specific armaments of countries are matters involving national security - if I had my hands on information pertaining to exactly how much they're buying I'll sell my house and pawn everything I had.
Which defence contractors is an easier question though. However, I'm interested about your fixation on US defence contractors. Why not the Asian ones? Shouldn't your intuition tell you that these are the ones which will profit more?
Daniel Murphy
How do you plan on investing in Asian defense contractors? My guess is the game-changing equipment isn't shitty Cambodian-made AKs, anyway. It's likely American surveillance tech being sold to the east Asian militaries
David Butler
Military spending in the region will increase for the foreseeable future. This is due to the general development of all countries and fears of a rising China. I wouldn't expect a major conflagration but possibly small scale and short conflicts. A key issue for China is alienating its neighbors. Its primary goal is still taking back Taiwan and asserting itself in its claimed territory. Provided the US is still supporting Taiwan, China has no chance of taking Taiwan if all of its neighbors are supporting the United States in the region through basing and military cooperation. What drives neighboring countries into the US's arms(?), China being too aggressive in the SCS.
Regarding actual Veeky Forums type stuff, I imagine the standard US weapons producers will do well in the region, especially if the US continues to cooperate with a more assertive India and other developing SEA nations that feel threatened. Communications and Radar and such will probs be big.
All things out the window if Trump actually gets elected and goes full retard. Who knows.
Colton Morgan
Living in Asia helps a lot kek, but there are always ways to invest in companies listed on other exchanges. Of course, doing so will bring a little bit of forex risk so do it at your own risk.
Actually, if you've been following the defence industry, growth of the big 3 have been slowing down. They've been targeting the APAC region to counteract this, but only the biggest Asian economies can afford American tech. Off the top of my head: Singapore, S. Korea, India... An article I read sometime back described that American tech is viewed as a kind of luxury... Not a must-have. That, however, may change if tensions continue to escalate.
Connor Myers
>if the US continues to cooperate with a more assertive India
What are your views on India? They bought a billion dollars worth of equipment from the US last year, if memory serves. And now China is building up a military presence along its border with India for whatever reason.
I do think that we are overdue for an Indian military ramp-up
Noah Wright
Although most liberal media and some conservative or neoconservative media has stated sure victory for Hillary if Trump is the Republican nominee, I don't think so. With debates coming up and the way Donald Trump has handled competition before, I'm about 80% sure Donald Trump's going to win the election, since Clinton is a terrible campaigner, has no enthusiasm behind her, and has to deal with dissatisfied Bernie supporters as well, not to mention her life long record of corruption.
However, our policy will be up to Congress for the most part, but Donald Trump is a deal maker, so I'd expect him to get his way, with his rhetoric on China, he probably would be willing to support the efforts of our allies to prevent China's acquisition of new territory.
I don't think we will move to many troops, and hope that military budget will increase, as budget cuts, have been costing the military quite a lot and people have actually died because of accidents occurring during training, which has been reduced to save money.
Michael Thomas
Even if there is a verifiable trend of increased military spending (which I doubt) supported by credible evidence (which you've failed to provide), you still haven't shown that any potential advantage to any publicly traded company hasn't already been priced into the stock.
You providing elementary school level analysis where you pretend to see a trend, but are oblivious to the economic implications.
You don't make money spotting trends. You make money by investing in stocks that are going to rise. You provide no evidence or even argument on the relevant topic. Pathetic.
Anthony Davis
Look man, the trend has been established and is undeniable. If you actually followed the thread you would know that. People like you just come into a thread, not read it then attack it without reading anything and claim stupid shit.
>don't make money spotting trends >make money by investing in stocks that are going to rise
How the fuck would you know which stocks are going to rise if you don't spot trends? You're literally denying the basic principles of stock investing. Just leave, and go back to your meme threads.
Also, it's not my homework to provide you with the companies lmao. What the fuck do you think this is, some kinda giveaway? Some kinda investing 101 class? Here child, have the name of the companies I know have a high chance of experiencing a value increase from the hours of research I've done, so you can make money without doing any homework!
The purpose of the thread is to alert people of an ongoing trend (that is undeniable, btw), and to encourage discussion. In your 3 posts here you have contributed absolutely nothing constructive. Thanks a ton bro
Benjamin Richardson
>Look man, the trend has been established and is undeniable. No, you cited three articles -- all of which were cut-and-paste jobs of the same article -- which itself cites an uncorroborated source. If you don't learn how to substantiate a news source, you're going to keep getting fooled.
>You're literally denying the basic principles of stock investing. You don't understand the words you type. Basic principles of stock investing have nothing to do with spotting trends. Trends only continue until they don't. Only children think like you.
Fundamental stock analysis requires an understanding of the intrinsic value of the underlying security. You have to dive into the valuation of the stock, something which you are clearly ill-equipped to attempt.
All you're doing is illustrating the common mistake of buying the news. You buy the rumour and sell the news. You're 12 months too late to the trend, kid.
>The purpose of the thread is to alert people of an ongoing trend See above, idiot. Alerting someone to a trend without demonstrating that the trend leads to a current market inefficiency (i.e., underpriced stock) is retarded. You can't make money with a trend line. You make money with an undervalued stock.
Show us the undervalued stock.
Or leave.
You're a massive poser faggot, so I'm betting you'll do neither.
Adrian Bennett
Gonna have to agree here. This thread is fucking useless unless you start naming stocks.
Jackson Harris
Look man,this is for discussion. DISCUSSION. This is not one of your memecoin threads where I tell you what to buy,and when to buy. What the fuck were you expecting?
I realize now that I've posted a lot fewer sources than I thought I did,but everything I've said on here is substantiated,which is more than you can claim.
I ain't here to spoon feed you guys man,I'm here to talk with people who know what they're talking about. Obviously it was a mistake to talk about something amerifags know nothing about - who know next to nothing about global affairs. There are some on here with prior knowledge of the situation,and they know what they're talking about.
Here's some advice: if you see a thread on a topic on which you know nothing,then read up on the OP's claims,or do the obvious thing and leave the thread. Or shitpost,but you seem to be doing that pretty well already.
>you can't make money on a trend line K,because quite obviously Bloomberg's words hold no weight and no other investor acts upon its advice. Also,nobody has ever made any money off a pump and dump.
>trends mean nothing >what is TA >what is investing 101 >let's just throw around terms I learned in undergrad school to show how smart I am
Look man,I didn't want to fucking snap at you people,but holy shit you guys are not just dumb but demanding as well. Because if I were able to prove a true market inefficiency,the first thing I'd do is post on Veeky Forums where everyone else can take advantage of it and let it correct itself amirite? You don't have any idea how the stock market works son. Just go.
James Hughes
Name the stocks you feeble minded freak
Carson Campbell
>what is TA A joke, a bad meme, and a tell-tale sign that you're a massive idiot.
Abandon fucking thread. The true face of Veeky Forums has shown itself.
Ian Torres
Lol this. Whyd you even start this thread if you didnt even bother to look up some stocks that relate to it >inb4 you know a bunch but arent telling
Juan Stewart
M8,I'm shocked. I ain't even angry no more. Who the fuck denies TA and claims that its a meme? Jesus fuck,you literally have no idea what you're talking about.
You guys are funny,getting mad just cos I ain't spoon-feeding you. It's not as if the information of what country uses what defence contractors is private - the numbers of what they buy are. And if you'd go back to previous posts you'd be able to know which countries I'm focusing on. Do your own due diligence - even if I were to name you some stocks you should still be doing this.
Adrian James
Nice bait fag. Technical analysis is the biggest joke on this board. Literally more shit-tier than cryptos.
There are no hidden meanings in the patterns, moron. This is investing, not astrology.
Also, stop with the passive-aggressive bullshit. You made a crap thread and you're not smart enough, wise enough, or knowledgeable enough to lead an adult biz discussion. Get over it.
Alexander Diaz
>no hidden meaning in patterns >for some reason investment banks pay in the 6-7 figure range for people who develop trading algorithms.. which are literally just finding "hidden meaning in patterns"
Almost tricked me, Schlomo.
Landon Garcia
Go back to /pol/ faggot. You're too stupid to understand algo or HFT trading, and no one here is going to waste their time teaching a meme-spouting retard.
Samuel Gutierrez
You think algos aren't based on patterns, then? Are you really that stupid?
Liam Carter
Dude lmao literally just leave,we can't have people knowing that as stupid as Veeky Forums is,there are bizfags who don't believe in TA. Pls go
Noah Morris
Your thread starter, ladies and gentlemen. Too stupid to know how to invest, but thinks he can lead a biz discussion.
Julian Harris
People on Veeky Forums believe this.
Stupid people, sure, but wow.
He's not an American, though, so perhaps we can excuse his lack of education.
Liam Gutierrez
Are you really using that comic as a source? Cmon now. You know what,you got me. We all fell for the b8. There can't be anyone this stupid. Good one man,but enough is enough. Go now, and never come back
Sigh,just because you can't wrap your head around it,that doesn't mean that TA is invalid. The sources you linked talk about how the average investor cannot make use of TA. That doesn't mean TA isn't legit you fool.
Btw,while those sites look legit,you really shouldn't be quoting opinion pieces.
>mfw I open up a source and am hit by "TA is stupid" >anything that makes me lose money is stupid
You're the stupid one here m8. You don't deny something you don't understand.
Luis Butler
I can wrap my head around it thanks to my finance degree. But I'm not even holding myself out as the authority here. I'll happily let the experts speak for me.
You're advocating a meme strategy that is proven not to work. Period. You believe in voodoo.
Do us all a favor: Stop posting on biz. Stop using a trip. Stop pretending to speak English. Stop breathing.
Mason Morris
>a favor >lists many >uses a capital S after a colon
Ok, stop pretending to speak English. What shit school did you attend? Here, I'll take 5 minutes to debunk your shit sources.
>advocating a meme strategy that is proven not to work Proven by whom? I'm not even going to focus on the fact that most of your sources are opinion pieces. Do you know what these are? These are articles contributed by writers who are not in-house based. They are labelled as OPINION PIECES so that the site hosting these pieces can limit their liability in case it's a shit piece. But I'll go through some of your sources anyway, so you can stfu for once and for all.
Your first source begins like so:
>"Whenever I ('The Prince') hear bloggers or financial “professionals” reading charts and talking about breakouts, support, momentum, resistance, chart patterns, or any number of goofy names for the shapes that charts make, I immediately begin to smile."
Let's look past the fact that it is written by a fedorafag calling himself Prince, and that he submitted the piece in a failed attempt to drive traffic to his unknown site. In this source THE WRITER CONCEDES THE FACT THAT TA WORKS. Do us all a favor and read the damn sources before you use them to back up your points.
Oh boy, here's a good one. It's regarding your second source. He shits on TA on his PERSONAL WEBSITE, but is attacked there by someone who saw what he did on Reddit. Without giving too much away (trust me, this is hilarious), h posted a livestream of him trading and lost money and started crying.
Bruh my fucking sides. Please stop, you're killing me.
Jaxon Smith
God you're pathetic. I know you're butthurt because I called you out in your thread, and made everyone see what a faggot you really are. But now you're just letting your emotions turn you into a miserable cunt.
You're possibly the biggest loser I've ever seen on Veeky Forums ... and that's saying a lot.
Samuel Wilson
This is a discussion thread. I really don't mind it if someone has something constructive to say, but Jesus all of your claims are baseless. Technical Analysis, a meme? I'm guessing you didn't go to business school, or read very much at all. A finance degree at Phoenix doesn't count, btw ;)
I really don't want to get personal man, but holyyy shit you're dumb as fuck. You literally have no idea what you're talking about. You should have left when I gave your intellect the benefit of the doubt
Landon Jackson
This stopped being a discussion thread when I called you out for not understand basic stock analysis, and everyone in the thread called you a faggot.
Then you started acting like a cunt on her period, crying and whining for attention.
Let it go faggot. You can't possibly redeem yourself at this point, and thankfully no one gives a fuck who you are anyway. Just slink off and cry in a corner, fatty.
Angel Lopez
My granddaddy used to say those that don't know financial analysis know technical analysis!
Nicholas Nelson
>denies the validity of TA >calls me out for not understanding basic stock analysis >everyone in the thread (just you and some other guy expecting to be spoon-fed) >obviously mad after having sources debunked >attacks my person since he can offer no better argument >calls me emotional
K. Just go,preserve what's left of your dignity. I've had enough of squabbling with idiots
Nolan Butler
>2016 >being this triggered At this point, I think you're just looking for attention. You don't even care that it's universally negative attention. Pathetic.
Gabriel Walker
Instead of attacking me, how about you contribute to the thread? Post something about the topic not many know about, or better yet, refute something (with backed, reliable sources).
Chase Davis
Masters/PhD in economics or law school
Joseph Flores
They've got a ways to go. NPR did an interesting special last week or two weeks ago(?). Expect high growth (although questionable numbers, similar to China) for the foreseeable future. But, they have a clear interest in developing their military capabilities, particularly in regards to their Navy. India has history with Pakistan and China so yeah, not hard to understand. I remember reading a few weeks ago India buying a ton of helicopters or something but I think they were Russian (?).
Justin Reyes
Good rec, good read. I must have missed out on that.
Carter Rivera
Theres no QTDDTOT thread up so i'll ask here Uni offers for mid year entry came out this week, i got accepted for both my applications. Undergrad Commerce (3 years) or Undergrad Commerce/International Relations (Combined)(5 years) Is it worth taking IR at all? Will I still be able to get the same positions in say international business with just a commerce degree?
Lincoln Morgan
I'd like to add to the discussion in a different context. I recently started looking at the shipping industry, mainly tankers which carry various types of oil and oil products.
In the context of the South China Sea, I am trying to determine how it will affect shipping as a fuck load of oil goes from the middle east through the south China Sea to china, Japan and other far East nations.
Tankers are paid by loan ton mile. I.e. the heavier and farther, preferably farther, the more money they make per trip. Longer trips are better than multiple small trips so Tankers don't have to be cleaned or lined if changing products, plus port fees and lag time of not shipping is a factor etc.
With conflict in the south China Sea, I'm wondering if insurance rates on the ships, improved shpping prices for the tankers due to risks running oil through the south China Sea, and potentially longer trips to avoid the south China seas conflict areas may prove a net positive.
Interdiction of ships may be an issue as well with unidentified vessels, mistakes, searches etc.
Thoughts anyone?
Adam Gray
To comment on all the butt hurt going on in the thread....which I really shouldn't do ...I agree op probably didn't do much research on the stock side, but the tour purpose was discussion of a topic, not free fundamental analysis.
If you want stock picks and price entry points based off info from an user, go to a rgt. I wouldn't trust any specifics anyone posted here anyway. Now let's keep talking.
I'm surprised shipping is doing so poorly yet the news spouts how the headwinds from overseas risks are abating. To further this, interest rates are near zero to negative. Dry bulk shipping is in the pits. There may be buying opportunities as companies go out of business. Only the strong will survive.
Ian Rivera
I'm assuming you're American - I'm not thoroughly familiar with the workings of the American education system myself, but obviously there are other factors that may affect the 'worthiness' of taking IR.
It's a 5-year program - do you have a scholarship? With the economy trends the way they are, I would weigh the cost of education heavily.
I don't profess to be the best person to answer this question, but I do believe that having IR should help open more doors. However, are you not considering poliscience? To study IR for an additional 2 years is really long IMO.
That's really all I know - if other bizfags could answer his questions more thoroughly that would be great.
William Turner
Thanks for that - I'd have ignored the idiots, but Jesus this is the first time I've heard someone deny TA. Not just for investors (as W.B. used to claim), but the existence of the entire thing.
Anyway, that is an interesting POV. I never really considered the aspect of shipping (as the little area I live in get its supplies from a oil giant neighbor: Indonesia). Possibly the region will increase its dependence significantly on oil imports in the future, but it won't be in the timeframe we are thinking of right now. (Perhaps 15 years?)
... Your opinion is an interesting one. At the beginning of the conflict there was a statement by the Chinese that they would never stand in the way of shipping or commercial interests - but now it is difficult to say.
I wish I had more to offer, but the extent of my knowledge on the matter lays here. :/
Here's an interesting source for anyone who wishes to read up on the matter:
>They won't tolerate being made to look weak, with them being the biggest superpower in the Asian Pacific and all. I do think it's about a show of force - but if tensions escalate with the US presence and all... The old song and dance, "don't tell us what to do, we do what we want".
>I'm not saying that I'll be happy if a war breaks out. War is never a good thing, but hey, if it's inevitable, might as well cash in, right? As well as robbing and blasting losers whenever it's convenient. We bad.
Henry Parker
>You can't make money with a trend line. You make money with an undervalued stock. Actually you can, if you time a trends exhaustion you can be early, on time or late and still make money consistently. There have been plausibly hundreds of billions of dollars made trading blue chips this way. It's essentially a way to capitalize on fear and greed.
Jackson Diaz
You can make money at roulette too. But it's not investing.
Stop being retarded.
Jason Jenkins
>Stop being retarded. Why would I post on Veeky Forums when I'm not retarded?
You can't have me when I'm not retarded.
Caleb Green
Well played. I haven't been nonplussed on biz in many months.
Nathaniel Jenkins
Are you going to stay in this thread,and constantly call out people who disagree with your unbacked claims? You'll be here all day.
Jason Bell
Going in based on this is basically a yolo.
Ethan Bell
No sane asian is buying u.s. weapons at their premiums. And this conflict is naval, which most countries will contract internally. I didnt even google this senpai.
Mason Flores
I call out morons, idiots, liars, and charlatans where and when I see fit. I support my arguments better than any other poster on the board, and ironically, it takes me very little time to do so. This is easy stuff, for me at least.
Now stop being a passive-aggressive little faggot, as if that's going to keep me from belittling you.
Kayden Rivera
Oh hey!! Somebody who knows what they're saying. Do you perhaps live in Asia?
You're right that many of the smaller Asian countries view the US-grade weaponry as a premium - it's basically a luxury: too expensive to purchase, and too prohibitive (both in monetary cost and resources) to upkeep. What I am betting on is that the biggest militaries will at least allocate a little more of their defence budget internationally... Have you heard about the Indian submarine situation? It isn't easy to prime production towards defence, especially if you're a huge country.
Daniel White
Speaking of being nonplussed; Obama nonplussed me, for these past 2 months I've been on an Obama hating binge. It's funny because I was all pro-Obama since he got into the white house until then.
