/oil/

Will oil ever go back up?

What's your prediction for Jan 1, 2017 and Jan 1, 2018?

I think it will finish this year at $50, and be $65 at the start of 2018.

it will go back up.. there is a finite supply.. most likely late this year

You don't think the high inventories will stop that?

It could take up to a year for the draw to bring the numbers down to their normal amount.

Apology for noon question.

But if I'm making a long term investment, wouldn't it wiser to invest in a oil company than index?

Do you know of any particular oil company that you recommend?

If you are making a long term investment, then spend a long time searching for something that you are comfortable to invest in.

All the people that works for investment firms recommend index funds, vanguard . It's weired they recommend those because they don't recommend then to their clients.

Depends on what you think will happen. Big producers didn't go down in value much, so they wont go back up much ether.

Some of the smaller companies lost almost all of their value. If you think oil will recover, you would expect to make a lot of money with them.

Drilling companies took even more damage. There might be a lot of value in them.

Most clients want short term yields. Long term you want distributed funds.

Sure, you don't tend to gain a shitload, but you are protected from random companies failing. Look at kodak as an example. For decades they were one of the gold standards of stocks. You got dividends, and the stock grew constantly. Then digital cameras came around and they basically just got deleted off the face of the earth in a mass extinction event because they didn't adapt to the new environment. If you were deeply invested in kodak during their golden years, you had a mint. If you were around during the fall, you lost damn near everything.

Diversifying prevents something like that from happening by distributing the load. Because somebody somewhere in some company is probably royally cocking something up at any given point in time, a diverse portfolio is practically never going to undergo very rapid growth, but you don't frequently suffer massive losses either.

I'm sure it would make a comeback since the supply is limited like someone else just said. How to do invest in this kind of thing by the way? I'd like a make a quick buck.

My tip: do the opposite from sentiment

I think it will go down. Even if supply would go down, the demand are likely to go down as well. The world is turning bearish and needs less oil.

This.

Fundamentals haven't changed in a year and we have no reason to assume world's GDP and consumption is going to rise significantly in the next years (for now). USD value will likely continue to strenghten. The rising oilprices (and decline) for most of this year have been on par with its seasonal tendency.

What are peoples thoughts on this scenario:

Trump wins, trade barriers increase (tariffs/trade wars etc) so while the price for oil does not increase per say, the price to get the oil into a country does- hence increasing domestic demand, and increasing domestic oil price.

That is my thinking, and why I have made some small oil bets recently. I could be wrong tho.

What do you think the real price of gasoline you pay at the pump would be if instead of having to pay for the military/protection/stabilization of the middle east through taxes, you paid it right there at the pump?

My guess would be very competitive with the price of the more costly to produce domestic oil.

let's see what the money says...

Silver Run Acquisition Corp, run by energy industry veteran Mark Papa, has taken a stake in privately held Centennial Resource Development LLC and plans to develop the crude producer's Texas shale acreage, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The move by Silver Run, which went public in February with the aim of investing in U.S. energy companies, is the latest sign that major investors are moving more quickly to secure assets and acreage at depressed prices as U.S. crude prices climb off 2016 lows.

>Trump wins
Stopped reading there, unrealistic scenario.

I have heard that there are a few drills starting up again

Rig count bottomed out a few months ago. Right now it's around 350, had been increasing by 5 a week. This is down from 1500 when oil was over 80 in 2014.

I am currently working as an investment banking associate BB in London.

AMA

>finite supply