For how much longer will mutually assured destruction be an effective geopolitical doctrine?

For how much longer will mutually assured destruction be an effective geopolitical doctrine?

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news.com.au/world/british-navy-mistakes-whales-for-submarines-and-torpedoes-them-killing-three-during-falklands-war/story-fndir2ev-1226710325894
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If one side suspects that the other might be employing a defense that could potentially have them 'win' a nuclear exchange (or shift the scales that one side might have a substantial 'advantage' in a nuclear exchange), the other side might opt for a preemptive strike.

Until we've colonized enough planets that we can live with 1 being destroyed

Why would using a nuke ever be a good idea? If you use it then someone else might against you. Furthermore, despite what edgelords would have you believe, humans don't want millions of people to die even if they are part of another country.

>what is the STARWARS bluff
The Soviets were tricked into believing exactly what you proposed. No nukes flew.

They believed America was allocating billions for that purpose, not that it existed and was actually being employed. It's an important distinction because one affects the actual calculus of planning for a nuclear exchange, the other doesn't.

It's why the missile defense systems America sets up in Europe are such a sensitive issue for Russia. Those systems actually DO affect the calculus. Those systems (while ostensible set up to protect Europe against Iran) shift the scales of a potential nuclear strike. The Starwars program only PROPOSED to do that but never actually did.

It's not

there have been so many close calls that have just barely been bypassed because of insubordination from good people that don't want to fuck over the world.

mutually assured destruction is literally a meme.

It never has been an effective policy.

It was developed by defense industry analysts for the purpose of justifying a multi-billion dollar industry.

Even Kissinger is anti-nuke nowadays; the guy who advocated small-scare nuclear war during the Cold War.

When humans colonize other solar systems

telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/hillary-clinton-will-reset-syria-policy-against-murderous-assad/

Not much longer if this bomb detonates.

>mutually assured destruction is literally a meme

>there have been so many close calls that have just barely been bypassed because of insubordination from good people that don't want to fuck over the world.
such as?

And yet the 40 or so biggest economies of the world have not gone to war with each other since ww2, something that has literally never happened before in history

>No ones brought up glitches
The computers that control nuclear icbms are old as fuck and stable but the nuclear subs have done things such as mistake some Dolphins or seals for an incoming nuke and almost start ww3. That really happened

Cuban missile crisis?
The case of Stanislav Petrov?

Meteors, fireworks and training excercises have all tripped automatic nuclear defense systems in the past

It's actually important that the systems stay old. Security through obsolescence is actually a really ingenious countermeasure against hacking.

You mean "oldschool
There's three main ones

Neither of those cases were insubordination.

In both instances the decision not to fire the nukes were made by the correct individuals in the chain of command. Petrov correctly judged the radar glitch as such, as was his job. The nuclear sub in the Cuban incident required consent of a few key individuals onboard to fire, some consented some did not. The system worked, nuclear hellfire was averted.

MAD did exactly what was supposed to.You're not a pile of irradiated cinders because of it.

It works until somebody callss the bluff and attacks anyway, neither side will actually dare to use nukes. putin already kinda did in that NATO did not defend Ukraine as promised, proving that US will not start a war against Russia to defend its allies.

Ukraine wasnt part of NATO and Russia technically never invaded it. They annexed Crimea which had declared itself an independant republic

>Russia technically never invaded it
Armed and unmarked Russian troops were occupying the Crimean airport and other installations

Well it's your word against russia's. And there is no court that can rule on the evidence and effectively enforce it against russia.

Regardless, ukraine sets an interesting precedent on how militaries might operate in the 21st century- through subterfuge and urban guerrilla warfare instead of open battlefields. International wars made to look like civil ones.

But Crimea underwent a (dubiously) legal annexation. Certainly, there was quite a bit of self determination going on. The issue is largely is you respect the sovereignty of Ukraine or the right of self determination to Crimea, which even without direct Russian involvement, had enough support to secede.

Russian involvement was more like if England decided to back the Confederacy during the world war and told the Union to fuck off. The secession had dubious legality and ignored the sovereignty of the union, but the Confederacy still had self determination.

It's still a bad precedent though. Lets say some Syrians immigrated to your country killed all you whiteys so part of your country became 90% Syrian. Then 50 years later they voted to secede and join ISIS. It's like that.

> during the world war
Jesus Christ, I meant the Civil War obviously

I think you might have framed the issue too narrowly. Yes there was definitely enough support for Crimea to secede, but this was also because of Russian intervention through propaganda efforts. If you look even further back, the whole Ukraine issue is a dirty cookie jar with NATO and Russian fingerprints all over it. It's a huge clusterfuck.

Perhaps a more purposive perpsective would be better. Looking at it so myopically as a Ukraine vs Crimea issue would ignore the bigger geopolitical context in which it sits in, that is, political brinkmanship between NATO and Russia.

Yes, it's a clusterfuck, but we're talking about the specifically why NATO didn't step in during the annexation, no?

By whatever means, mostly by using Russian immigrants, Russia was successful in using a clause of self-determination to undergo a ceremonial secession and annexation.

The fact that Russia won the hearts and minds (of Russian immigrants in Crimea) and self-determination of the population of Crimea (mostly Russian immigrants) was enough pretext to prevent NATO from intervening.

It's not as simple as Putin rolling in tanks, annexing Crimea just because he felt like it, and NATO doing nothing because they were scared. He undermined the pretext NATO would have used to defend Crimea and gave himself a pretext to annex it.

>what is the Fin die Siecle
Not only are you wrong, you are hilariously wrong considering the US and China/USSR were in pretty fucking open conflicts during Vietnam and Korea. Someone will chime in with "proxy war", but they weren't even proxy wars. Soviet and Chinese troops were on the ground and actively fighting battles in Vietnam and Korea. They barely tried to hide it.

Majority support for Crimea joining Russia existed there well before anyone heard about this shit or gave two shits about Ukraine. I have a 10 year old National Geographic article on the matter.

Besides, everyone with a tiny degree of understanding of geopolitics knew that Ukraine was de facto a Russian puppet. The EU trying to wrest it from them is the aggressive act, not Russia retaking Crimea.

>The EU trying to wrest it from them is the aggressive act, not Russia retaking Crimea.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Perspectives.

Can we get back to the topic post, Mutually Assured Destruction?

>>Since WWII Top 40 (approx) economies at war
Iran and Iraq
Israel and Egypt
UK and Argentina

>nuclear subs have done things such as mistake some Dolphins or seals for an incoming nuke and almost start ww3.
[citation needed]

I think he is likely full of shit, but while Googling to see if I could confirm his tale I found this amusing story.

news.com.au/world/british-navy-mistakes-whales-for-submarines-and-torpedoes-them-killing-three-during-falklands-war/story-fndir2ev-1226710325894

A better question: HOW MUCH LONGER ARE WE GOING TO DEVELOP AND STOCKPILE DOOMSDAY WEAPONS THAT WE NEVER EVER USE

Until you learn to like it, commie scum.

Commies like building nukes, idiot. A fucking missile is in NK's coat of arms.

>NK
>commies
Commies push disarmament, you NIMBY faggot.

We have found something far, FAR more effective at destroying a nation from its very core. Total and complete annihilation.

>Liberalism
and liberal logic are tantamount to nuclear war on the societies it is leveled against.

Liberalism largely leaves the infrastructure intact, and utterly decimates the population, leaving only the passive, beaten and submissive population that would otherwise have only been left following a traumatic and devastating physical conflict.

essentially liberalism converts the population to a post-war, (losing side) victim culture of ineffectual, sobbing fools who only cry for concessions from their victors.

You spend too much time on the internet friend.

the ideal ultra-weapon:
-destroys the population's will to fight
-reduces the capability of the determine to make war
-dissallows future aims of warfare in either production or logistics
-retains infrastructure
-spreads like a pathogen

list goes on.
Liberalism is simultaneously a weapon of mass destruction, and a pathogenic virus.

look around you, you dipshit.
A NATO country had a government coup in 2016
the west is in free-fall,
unchecked immigration has brought europe to its knees, as ISLAM marauds across European soil.
Religion is mocked and scorned, and blasphemed.
Traditional lifestyles of nuclear families, children and marriage are viewed as undesirable, unsuccessful and socially wrong, rather hook-up culture is prefferred, single motherhood is a rampant and sexual perversion is at a fever pitch. Chastity and self-worth are extinct.

>too much time on the internet.
literally take yourself down to the streets of your nearest capital city, and walk them from 7pm- 3am on a friday night and glimpse the truth of humanity at this hour, at the junction of life. see the truth of what is going on.

>A NATO country had a government coup in 2016
>the west is in free-fall,
>unchecked immigration has brought europe to its knees, as ISLAM marauds across European soil.
There's some merit to this.

>Religion is mocked and scorned, and blasphemed.
>Traditional lifestyles of nuclear families, children and marriage are viewed as undesirable, unsuccessful and socially wrong, rather hook-up culture is prefferred, single motherhood is a rampant and sexual perversion is at a fever pitch. Chastity and self-worth are extinct.
This is where you go full /pol/tard.

Thanks for the story.
(silly skimmer pukes)

Note: The HMS Conqueror (S48) is the ONLY Nuclear Submarine with wartime tonnage. She sank the ARA General Belgrano (ex USS Phoenix CL-46) in the Falklands on 1982 May 02.

Everyone seems to be involved. Including the lieks of China and Russia.

So much for """"""""commies"""""""""""

>Russia
>commie
>China
>commie
Wew lad.