B-but user the stock market always goes up in the long-term

Nude_Bikergirl
Nude_Bikergirl

b-but user the stock market always goes up in the long-term

Other urls found in this thread:

data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS?locations=JP),
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?locations=JP).
bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1075609.0

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

Japan = USA

Sir_Gallonhead
Sir_Gallonhead

By the stock market people generally refer to the US

MPmaster
MPmaster

"stock market" = only USA

Evil_kitten
Evil_kitten

That is incorrect

haveahappyday
haveahappyday

Whoever said that has little understanding about markets. It would probably take being a half-wit or a moron to believe that markets are set to move in any direction for any amount of time.

SomethingNew
SomethingNew

It surely doesn't refer to the market of Trinidad and Tobago or the stocks traded on the Tanzanian Stock Exchange

5mileys
5mileys

Japan bubbled hard in the early 80s. Japanese companies were nowhere near that value. There is too much info out there now for something like that to ever happen again in a 1st world country.

hairygrape
hairygrape

Also, the number of people who can actually work in Japan is going down. /pol/ can shit on immigrants all they want but if you only care about the economics if you don't have a rising population/rising level of development you won't have a growing economy.

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

Literally 95% of investors think it always goes up

Methshot
Methshot

The Nikkei 1973-1997 was the largest stock exchange my market cap.

Still 3rd largest.

There is too much info out there now for something like that to ever happen again in a 1st world country.
2000
2007

TreeEater
TreeEater

True. A Day Without A Mexican should be required viewing in 9th grade Social Studies.

Carnalpleasure
Carnalpleasure

Incorrect.

Japan's working age pop grew until 1998. Population until 2011.

Snarelure
Snarelure

Who did that work in 1980?

Skullbone
Skullbone

2000 was a tech setback. 2007 was a banking setback. The market today in the US is much higher now than it was in 2006-7. There is no way the US market could overvalue itself the way Japan did to itself in the 80s. As OP points out, the Japanese market is still below its 1990 level. Nothing like that has happened to the US since the 30s.

Emberfire
Emberfire

much higher

18%?

Evilember
Evilember

White people. Then Reagan tax cuts and globalizaton made sending jobs to China worth money and that Genie doesn't go back into the bottle.

Flameblow
Flameblow

Nothing like that has happened to the US since the 30s.

Nasdaq 2000 took until 2016 to break even.

Inflation adjusted you're still down 24%.

S&P 500 and Dow inflation adjusted only broke 2000 in Sept 2014.

SniperGod
SniperGod

That's way higher than the negative rate of return of Japan you're jizzing about.

RavySnake
RavySnake

Inflation adjusted Japan is even worse. I'm not trying to deny that the economy took a shit. I'm just saying that the S&P is not going to be at 1100 25 years from now.

WebTool
WebTool

The crash in the early 90s for Japan was due to the asset bubble. The workforce decline is why it's not bouncing back.

RumChicken
RumChicken

Tbf, inflation adjusted Japan 1950-present is only marginally lower than the S&P 500 inflation adjusted gain.

Well, the S&P 500 is only 2% above the inflation adjusted 2000 high.

1929-1957 was the previous bubble/regain.

There's nothing saying US stocks cannot suffer a similar 30 year weak market.

Well if 1998 was when the working age population peaked, wouldn't you expect the bubble that peaked in 1990 to regain a good amount of ground?

America's working age pop since 1990 has grown 20%.
Japan's has grown 0-1%.

But US stocks are up 80% while Japan's are down about 80%.

IMO population is only 20% of Japan's problems.

TechHater
TechHater

Time to make some money then.

eGremlin
eGremlin

If you think the US economy is going to go through 30 years of non-inflation and the market value of the big US companies is going to be cut in half, better buy gold and guns, because the whole world is fucked to the point of human extinction.

BinaryMan
BinaryMan

Sure, but while the population of working age has declined somewhat (data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS?locations=JP), the population of people over 65 has more than doubled (data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?locations=JP). That's a lot of pensions.

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

buy gold and guns
gold would be pointless, why would anyone trade with you when they can shoot you instead?

guns and food might be a better idea.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

People have always loved shiny shit, even in the shittiest times.

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

just another reason why they'll shoot you and take it.

Fried_Sushi
Fried_Sushi

That's what your guns are for. People will shoot you for your guns and food too.

Nude_Bikergirl
Nude_Bikergirl

yes, which makes trading impossible and gold worthless.

guns and food at least have some use in this scenario.

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

Nah, because humans are wired to be social and work together. So you have gold and you find a guy who wants gold and wants to sell x. You make a deal you both agree with. The guy is more likely to deal with you in the future from there. It doesn't have to be gold or food or guns specifically, but those are all old standbys. Maybe shoes will be worth a lot in the coming hellscape since randos don't make shoes anymore.

Flameblow
Flameblow

It did 1929-1957.

America's pensioned population has been booming as well senpai. Baby boomers.

StonedTime
StonedTime

humans are wired to be social and work together.
if that were true you wouldn't need the guns.

Raving_Cute
Raving_Cute

i just did a quick mental/visual averaging down on that graph. your avg cost for a broad market ETF or similar basket would be 10000 points. 12-15 times "buying the dip" and you'd be up money right now in terms of notional value. i cbf to calculate inflation adjusted return or to include hypothetical dividend impacts.

it's really not as bad as it looks. and i say that as someone who really doesn't believe that "markets always go up".

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

as an Australian I can confirm that this is bullshit, unless you're going purely by the quantitative assessment of a growing economy, in which case it is only useful for multinationals and faceless investors, and actually counter-intuitive in the long term as qualitative factors in productivity implode

patching up skills shortages which could otherwise be solved with proper training programs and use of capital, at the expense of infrastructure, national disposable income (as wage pressures increase), and cultural or biological homogeneity, is poor long term planning

not to mention the fact that those sardine tin homes they live in are insane

Techpill
Techpill

Japan has enough people

TreeEater
TreeEater

Seriously, fuck Japan, their tech bubbles and aging population problems

WEST IS BEST
WEST IS BEST

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

Japan got greedy, became overvalued, and then shelled up because of fear of repeating the past.

This had led to mountainous debt, aversion to risk, an aging populace, and getting double teamed hard by korea and china in the tech industry.

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

I mean if you think America is that great sure. But come on now. Wtf is this American pride you're showing? Haven't seen that in a few decades.

askme
askme

You missed the original point user

Japan has a problem due to a manpower shortage not a skills shortage.
Can't fix a lack of manpower with training.

Australia also needs immigrants. Say what you will about living like sardines etc but it's the only option if people keep living longer

A nation with more retirees than working people will collapse or the retirees will die.

TreeEater
TreeEater

The retirees are from a pop bubble from the 60s. You dont need to create another population bubble to support a previous one. Just let them die off and substitute low skilled labour with capital.

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

If the Japanese weren't xenophobic assholes they could have imported cheap chinese labour throughout the 90s and their economy would have skyrocketed.

Not right-wing idiots in the USA and Europe want to make the same fucking mistake.

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

have ageing population
import people to prop up social welfare, among other things
now you have a larger ageing population, go to step 1 while per capita quality of life diminishes
it is not the only option you dunce

Firespawn
Firespawn

A nation with more retirees than working people will collapse or the retirees will die.

Explain why Japan's GDP is still positive since 2011 then.

SniperGod
SniperGod

import people that can't speak your language, hate you, and will willingly do corporate espionage

Japan is hard to integrate into. America is easy because it has no real culture.

Finally, Japan had 2-3 million immigrants in the 90's.

JunkTop
JunkTop

america... Has no real culture

You fucking weeb gtfo and I say this not as an american

Firespawn
Firespawn

Finally, Japan had 2-3 million immigrants in the 90's.
counting all the sainichi 99% japs as immigrants because they have 1% chink or korean genes
top kek

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

Yeah, I really hate this reddit-tier meme. 95% of this board is from reddit though, so that's why it gets shilled here.

Firespawn
Firespawn

I can see same faith with euro indecies as nikkei have had

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

It's not
The other two options are pure poison but and would never pass through parliament.

Stop paying government pension, let old people die, which is great in theory but that includes your grandparents and suddenly it's not so appealing.

Or ludicrous taxes to fund the retirees, which is much more likely but I for one am gone if that happens.

happy_sad
happy_sad

pretty sure japans lost decade was cause of the plaza accord, when amercans forced them to revalue their currency. i guess it was cause the japanese were getting too powerful and wealthy. cars more reliable, their popular and highly regarded electronics products.

if you get recked by americans in war, they let you become somewhat successful, but at the cost of becoming their eternal bitch. the bitch never becomes the pimp, and so the bitch got a pimpslap. enter plaza accord. even to this day all japanese wartime info is censored by govt in accordance with american demands.

likewise look at germany.
bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1075609.0
this is what it means to be on the losing end of war.

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

holy fuck thankyou for that quote

'and that genie doesnt go back into the bottle'

Skullbone
Skullbone

actually plan to phase out pension for supers of a reasonable sum
implement qualitative productivity reforms
remove debts, rein in fire sector
the voters will come around if it's played properly, hard to believe that someone would actively vote against their own future and their children's livelihood