Hurr its impossible to beat the market

>I plan on rolling £10k out on a weekly trading of stocks and selling them when they rise by 1 or 2%.

You'll blow up.

Either that or you'll become insanely rich and then overconfidence will cause you to blow up.

Longer term trades (greater than 200 days) are far more profitable and broker fee + tax efficient.

If you still insist on trading short term you have to look at it from a operational perspective. Calculate the expected value of your strategy. If its less than 2 then in the trash it goes.

Are you implying that hedge funds are aware that the odds are against them, so they basically take a risk in order to try to become this one villager who makes $1M a year?

Your graph is a joke. Not a single active data point is negative? lmao get real

Trading shitcoins in your mother's basement does not make you an "hedge fund trader"

No. The average is a useless metric if the standard deviation of the data set is too large.

Same goes with risk. Consider the fact long term government bonds are widely considered to be less risky than stocks.

But they've had the greatest bull run over the last 20 years with much lower volatility than stocks.

What critical thinking skills should I work on?

>actively managed funds exist
>actively managed funds must lose all the invested principle and don't collect any fees
>banks don't profit from active management because high school econ 101 told me only buy indeces
This is what laypeople actually think. Enjoy getting robbed / raped at occupy

>an hedge fund trader
>an hedge fund
>an hedge
>an

lol did you delete your response to my comment OP?

Thats because it shows the total return after 10 years. Average returns is probably a bit confusing, my bad.

If theres any consolation, this simulation was conducted on 100 randomly generated stock price data using a normal distribution. Real stocks follow a lognormal distribution.

I did.

FFS... The legend didn't come out right.

Asking the right questions.

do you trade forex? i've got a position long aud/nzd. looks like it might drop to 1.02 before a good size rebound. RBNZ is making an interest announcement next week. i'm expecting a rate cut or a close implication. would cause the AUD to gain and make my long profitable.

I've been watching them for the last 8 months or so and have been paper trading about a year. I'm also invested in both active and passive funds.

My paper trading following their methods and strategies are blowing the fuck out of my fund investments and the regular stock only paper trading. It's incredibly powerful. Just takes a bit of dedication to learn the craft.

There's really no point in posting graphs if you don't explain what you're actually plotting.

Nah, its going down. Get out while you still can.

How do I calculate expected value?

And buying and selling over the period of 200 days chances are that the stocks will fluctuate within that period and its harder to see 200 days into the future so Its harder to work out what percentage increase i would get if any percentage increase at all.

If no one asks any questions then theres no point in me talking to myself

Ah, frog memes, now those I can comprehend.

>How do I calculate expected value?

literally a google search away

>its harder to see 200 days into the future so Its harder to work out what percentage increase i would get if any percentage increase at all.

If you're actually thinking of setting a limit to how much profit you want to take then you might aswell buy a Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. It'll outperform what you are doing in the long run.

you sure about that senpai?

>he shows only the 1 year performance

In regards to hedge funds trading forex
What timeframes do the hedgefunds look at?
In the COT report there are commercials and large speculators who are diametrically opposed net long/short, does this mean the hedge funds average in buying all the way down and selling all the way up, or do only the commercials/banks do that? What do hedegefunds use for risk reward ratios? How long do hedefunds hold positions that are underwater, and how do hedgefunds get out of positions that are underwater? Are all the hedfefunds trend following?
How do you determine which key levels blocks of orders will hold, stack, and pair?
How do you determine where and when the central banks' market making dealers step in to, engineer or manipulate, reverse, etc?
How sensitive are time of day and day of week?

Yeah because someone who wants to do short term trading would be interested in investing in a fund for five years.

I've already mentioned I have money in mutal funds for long term stuff.

What software are you using to run your model?

What is a rough description of your model?

Why aren't you running one of the most successful funds in finance?

Why don't most Hedge Fundies know about this?

Why hasn't your approach already been figured out by an algorithm that brute forces trading patterns and can simulate millions if not billions of these strategies and then inform trading strategies of firms?

Why is it not the case that with so many algorithms and human traders acting on the market that it's impossible to find anything under or overvalued at any one time?

What are your personal credentials? Age? Education? Where do you work? What hours do you work? How much do you earn?

This should keep you busy. Cheers.

What do you do when you dont RP hedge fund manager on tibetian fishing boards?

>He's a hedge fund trader

>He posts charts with no underlying data

From what I know hedge funds walk the line of being hugely successful and complete failures.

Check out the Quantum Hedge Fund.

>He mocks index funds but can't beat them 9 years out of 10

Soros is literally Illuminati-tier though

>hedge funds walk the line of being hugely successful and complete failures
Just like a lottery ticket. Sounds like a horrible way to plan your financial future.

Most people who invest in hedge funds are normally pretty well financially set anyway.

>Most people who invest in hedge funds are normally pretty well financially set anyway.
Who cares? Either its a good way to increase your wealth or not. And even if the wealthy are more risk adverse because their goals are more focused on preservation and income, there's no evidence hedge funds are better than indexing at that either.

Not disagreeing with you mate just laying down the facts. I've only ever known one person to be invited into a hedge fund project and he needed to pay in £40k minimum. The guy who offered it to him was a CEO of an asset management company in London.

People with money coming out of their arse get board and are willing to take the risk to increase their wealth its liek a game for many and something ncie to talk about at the golf club with your rich mates

Any hedge fund you can get into with less than $500K is run by frat boys less than 3 years out of state college.

And if you want to discuss hedge funds as a pure risk play, that's fine. But let's remember that OP started this thread to compare them to index funds. My comments are directed there.

What percentage of your portfolio is short?

What is the maximum percentage you allocate to a single investment?

What is your opinion on modern portfolio theory/efficient frontier?

Where do alternative assets fit into your methodology?

Thanks

I doubt my uncle who was a CEO of an asset management company would be involved in being under the management of a freshie

>Any hedge fund you can get into with less than $500K is run by frat boys less than 3 years out of state college.
lol no...

This is the best I can show.

True, most people fail to beat the market on average if they actively invest. Thats because they either 1) trade too much and 2) end up spending more on fees and taxes.

You could take the easy way out and just passively invest. But don't count on getting rich until atleast after 30 - 40 years; a plan which realistically speaking most of you will not dedicate to as you will definitely feel the urge to sell during times of intense market turmoil or personal emergencies.

But know that it IS possible to beat the market provided you
>don't blindly believe le efficient markets theory
>are not a sheep who just blindly looks for hot stock tips on japanese cartoon forums and finance blogs. Some of the info out there is really good, but you must be able to discern the BS which is not always obvious.
>not looking for a way to get rich quick

I don't know, you could get lucky regarding point number (3) and become rich after just a few highly leveraged well timed trades or a life changing job, but preserving that wealth you will come to find is the next big challenge you'll face, unless you just let a hedge fund look after it for you...

>What percentage of your portfolio is short?

We don't do it.

>What is the maximum percentage you allocate to a single investment?

Sometimes just 100%. Over diversification dampens returns and sometimes increases risk if the assets are too highly correlated with each other or the overall economy.

>What is your opinion on modern portfolio theory/efficient frontier?
Its right in the sense markets cannot be predicted to someone who doesn't know anything about how the market works. Its wrong about claiming markets can never be predicted by anyone and that any outperformance is not due to skill but dumb luck.

Your chart, and OP's charts, are all bullshit because you never define what you're using as "active investing." For all we know -- and this seems quite likely -- you're doing some self-serving backtesting with the benefits of hindsight.

All of the academic studies uniformly conclude that passive investing beats active investing. These are peer-reviewed scholarly articles, subject to strict standards for data collection and analysis. By comparison, your made-up charts are crayon drawings.

>it IS possible to beat the market provided you
>don't blindly believe le efficient markets theory
And this is how we know you're full of shit. Beating the markets has nothing to do with your state of mind, your belief system, your religion, your politics, or the color of your hair. The markets don't care what you believe or don't believe. Until you stop anthropomorphizing the markets you're going to remain a poorfag trolling on an anime message board. The market is not your waifu.

Finally, stop saying idiotic things like it is "possible" to beat the market. Of course it is "possible." It is possible that monkeys will fly out of my butt, fly to your home, and punch you in the face. But as entertaining as that might be, it is extremely improbable. Just the the chance that you, or anyone else for that matter, can reliably and consistently beat the market on a long-term basis is also extremely improbable.

Your posts are waste of time here anyway. Anyone stupid enough to believe your fiction won't have any serious investment capital anyway. You're roleplaying for roleplayers. Sad.

>Its wrong about claiming markets can never be predicted by anyone and that any outperformance is not due to skill but dumb luck
As you soon as you win a Nobel Prize, then you can debate the man who already disproved this statement. Until then, fuck off.

>backtesting
>not including fees + commissions
viper.jpg

I was waiting for when you'd show up.

>As you soon as you win a Nobel Prize, then you can debate the man who already disproved this statement.

I don't need to prove anything (and neither do the hedge funds who consistently outperform like Renaissance and Bridge Water) because the expected value of me earning $10M is far higher than the shitty $1M that comes with the Nobel Prize (which isn't an actual Nobel Prize btw and the real Nobel Family themselves have denounced it multiple times because its just a circle jerk for EMH dolts like yourself).

Now, run along now back to that ivory tower you crawled out of.

See here:

>Makes an unsubstantiated, fabricated claim.
>"I don't need to prove anything"
Thanks for playing, Donald.

Are you really that retarded? Even if I actually revealed my strategy for the sake of some stupid Nobel Prize, two things will happen:

>Market will completely absorb that inefficiency and that strategy won't work anymore
>no one would believe it and I continue to make poorfags like you question your purpose in life

But ofcourse, Behavioural Economics is a meme, right Mr. Neoclassical proletariat?

Still doesn't include fees.
Still is backtested/simulated post hoc.

No more (You)s for you, roleplayer. You've been exposed as a fraud, and now you're just attention-whoring.

You're just another sad Veeky Forums poorfag pretending to be something or know something. Enjoy your thread now sliding into inevitable obscurity, just like your dreams and prospects.

how rigged is the market by Stephens Inc. ?

Missed my Qs

Look at the graph again. Do those blue dots look like normal stocks to you? Ofcourse not, because they're essentially randomly generated noise signals with no discernible trend. Even if 3% compounded inflation is considered the returns by my algo still beat noise.

Food for thought.

>You're just another sad Veeky Forums poorfag pretending to be something or know something. Enjoy your thread now sliding into inevitable obscurity, just like your dreams and prospects.

Judging by your tone, its pretty obvious you're projecting your insecurities.

I'm sorry if I were a little bit harsh on you earlier. Are we still friends?

What I don't understand is why some people so vehemently preach this theory that you can't possibly beat the market in the long run.

How have we gotten to this stage?

Because from my paper trading I can clearly see that this is not the case. I'm doing both, and active investing/trading is clearly superior to passive investing.

Since when has anything "passive" been better than something active?

>long run
is the key term.
If there was something that gave even a 1% better return than random chance, you could make basically infinite returns.

>infinite returns
>implying humans are immortal

You economists sure do suffer a lot from physics envy

>can't possibly

>guaranteed replies

Enjoy your free (You) dumbass. It goes well with your eternal poverty.

What do you think of Anton Kreil?

It does If I'm saving up money for a new hedge you colossal faggot.

What a lot you guys are missing is:

Totally active can work

Totally passive can work
The individual investor usually doesn't have the resources to give active investing a fair shot and ends up somewhere in the middle. A place that has a lower probability of success than the two extremes.

Hire me.

WEW LADS THE AVERAGE RETURNS PLOTED AGAINST INDEX

WHAT COULD IT MEAN

MAYBE PLOT ON A RISK ADJUSTED BASIS

IF YOU COULD ONLY THINK OF WHAT HAPPNES WHEN HEDGE FUNDS TRADE WITH EACHOTHER

ITS LIKE ONE LOSES AND THE OTHER WINS

HMM WHAT COULD IT MEAN FOR THE AVERAGE RETURNS OF THE INDUSTRY

but you need good critical thinking skills to conduct market research, you spend every day gathering and analyzing information

or are you literally saying asking the right questions is important and not saying my question wasn't a good one

I just use technical analysis bro.

Critical thinking skills is just a fancy way of saying experience. You can't learn critical thinking skills in one week reading some book telling you what to do. It takes time.

>EMH is bullshit
and then
>Market will completely absorb that inefficiency and that strategy won't work anymore

luv u random retard ill see u posting in r9k in couple of years when your luck runs out

I got 60 dollars on AvAtrade t do i do how do I beat the market what should I invest in ?