"Nobody knows if a stock’s going up, down or fucking sideways, least of all stockbrokers."
Is this actually true? Have you ever "known" if your investment was going to go up or down? Or do you make educated guesses everytime and just hope for the best?
Other urls found in this thread:
finance.yahoo.com
twitter.com
I have a crystal ball that tells me the future.
git gud scrub... Also I inherited telepathy from my mum.
bump
"Back in the day"... brokers would buy stocks or options before they started buying large lots for clients. Can't do this anymore.
they don't care where it goes. (as long as it's not too big of a move too quick) they make money though commission so they can take a small loss on any position they take on.
It's one step above sports betting.
Patriots are probably gonna beat the Bears on Sunday, but it's not 100% certain by any means.
Ya dig?
Most stocks go up. A few companies go bust, but the long term trend is up.
Look at the math.
Imagine a game where you bet $100, if you lose you get back $90 and if you win you get $110. If you can win more than 50% of the time it is just a matter of playing as frequently as possible and leveraging as much as possible.
If you get back $95 when you lose you would only need to win more than 1/3 of the time.
So Warren Buffett is wrong occasionally, yet he still achieved ~20% returns consistently over decades which can't be a statistical anomaly. How? He made sensible well researched investments taking into account the risks which even if they don't pan out weren't going to be the end of him and often did do well.
>warren buffet
>muh 20% annual
>ben graham
jesus fucking christ
It is a meme example but it is a fact.
finance.yahoo.com
Mar 1 1980: 260
Dec 1 2016: 239070
91850% returns over 36.75 years comes to 20.4% annualized
>taking a movie at face value instead of doing your research
>expect genuine replies
how about you take a course in probability before asking retarded questions on Veeky Forums
Doesn't really matter.
I've got positions in 50-some stocks/funds. The ones that hit my targets I sell (or cover). The ones that don't, I wait until they do, raking off dividends on a percentage of them in the meantime.
It's all about having enough capital reserve that you're never forced to sell.
If you roll a dice, you dont know what face shows up.
But if you roll 50 dices, you can predict with certainty what the sum of all numbers will be pretty accurately (normal distribution).
So can you tell what one dice will show? No. Can you still consistently make money from betting on lots of dice? Yes.
The alternative is that Buffett has been incredibly lucky for five decades.
>"Nobody knows if a stock’s going up, down or fucking sideways, least of all stockbrokers."
Almost always true
Am I missing something but wouldn't you just end up break-even?
The dice keep getting rolled.
It would be like taking one out of play (cashing out) when it's a six. Eventually your total number of dice will get smaller and smaller. Sometimes it takes days, sometimes weeks or months, or (rarely) even years.
As long as you can afford to keep the dice rolling (hold your positions), eventually most will hit 6 at some point.
>As long as you can afford to keep the dice rolling (hold your positions), eventually most will hit 6 at some point.
I can't find a reaction picture. You need to learn probability and stats.
Educated guesses and risk management. Not much else to it.
I've made 22% on my portfolio YTD and I've had anywhere from 5 to 9 positions at one time.
I actually made ~41% profit in my first year, and 29% in my second, but I was trading leveraged instruments like oil, and got relatively lucky.
I'm not the best investor, but I'm pretty critical before I make an investment decision or get out of one.
Don't expect to get rich investing, but you can definitely outperform the market if you put your mind to it.
Dey wuz billionaires cuz they wuz lucky. Good thing my Stats 100 class explains this
The best feeling in the world is when you know a stock will go up. It's like there's laying free money on the street, just ready to be picked up.
Last time it happened to me was with the OPEC meeting last wednesday.
I knew they would come to an agreement, they had to. So I sat there with Brent oil bull x12 and earned a profit of 6500 $. A nice number for a 2 days investment.
>I can't find a reaction picture
Neither can I.
But it's the one that says "You don't know what the fuck you're talking about".
>The alternative is that Buffett has been incredibly lucky for five decades.
No, the alternative is that Buffett created a lot of value reflected in BRK's performance through mergers, acquisitions, integrations, streamlining, optimizations, cross-portfolio transactions, and consolidated marketing.
My alternative has the added benefit of being true.
the only thing going up guaranteed long term is bitcoin
the rest is a meme
I play with real estate.
So I can predict with some certainty that a new business opening up next door with up my value. If not oh well. I'm in it for the rents anyway