Veeky Forums Market Projections for 2017

ITT: We discuss the trajectory of the global market, and probability of an impending financial crisis in the wakes of the new year.

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I thought the Deutsche bank scandak would lead to the financial crisis but it didn't. I'm just eagerly waiting for the next one

FOMC decision tomorrow, and we have been living above our means for too long. It is only a matter of time until a bubble pops. Obviously we are not going to default on our $19.9 trillion debt, so we will just wait till a bubble bursts. If they do raise rates tomorrow, it could trigger 60% drop or more over a matter of months in DJIA and S&P500 (unless the fed sacrifices the U.S. dollar and causes hyperinflation to save the stock market). Average P/E of S&P is 24.87 at the moment. We only kicked the can down the road in 2008 by keeping interests rates low and we never had a full correction. Now we are in a much worse situation imo.
Banks been putting all their money back at the fed collecting interest since 2009. federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/

We will see what happens.

Tomorrow the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.5% this will send stocks in a tizzy that will last for 3 months. Bullish will turn to 'bullshit!' after a month, major firms will sell stock. The housing construction sector will implode. Oil will go up and plateau raggedly at $72/bbl. Sell any GM stock you have as well as any consumer discretionary or construction. I called it screen save if you want.

Young AuzFag here, what stocks should I buy in preparation for/during a financial crisis. Oil, Food and Gold?

Invest in oil than sell when WTI is around $70-75. Agriculture is okay too, its production is based on cheap energy but an increase in crude prices hurts it too. Invest in companies storing grain

Gold is a speculation game, I don't follow it I buy commodities that actually matter and not just speculation.

i am buying bitcoin lol, i have no idea wtf is going to happen. i think commodities are good if fed tries to do hyper inflation to save stock market

but if US stock market crash, anyone who trades on NYSE can buy these

volatility ETF
-UVXY
-VXX
-TVIX

Short S&P
-SPXU
-SPXS
-SDS
-SH

Short DJIA
-DXD
-SDOW

2017

Trump takes office and the economic outlook gets far less rosy. We get the inflation boost without the corresponding boost to growth, or the boost to growth we do get is not enough to offset the heightened inflation. Real yields turn strongly negative, and we get a repeat of the beginning of 2016 all over again. Gold miners are the hot trade of the year, we rotate back into defensive and bond proxy outperformance versus cyclical high beta.

Crude hits higher prices than people thought, as the long-awaited return of shale drillers does not materialize. The quick decline rates of shale wells mean that producers are incentivized to hold off and let the price run higher before bringing rigs online. The common theory of "crude range bound between 45-55 through '17" doesn't hold, and we surpass $60 dollar WTI - high beta E&P are the guys you wanna play for this scenario.

Still trying to wrap my head around the rest of the macro picture and how things will play out, but these are my two highest conviction thoughts.

Bump for investment ideas

Stock up on icewiches, food shortages are coming.

>inb4 you all get fooled by the jew to sell your stocks for cheap because of the "crash"

>le deutsche bank/unicredit will cause the next crisis
everybody knows about this and it won't change anything

JUST WAIT FOR THE BITCOIN BUBBLE TO BURST

Is that italian bank broke already?

>le market crash meme

Unless Trump does something stupid to upset foreign direct investment and the banking sector domestically, then yes the market will crash.

Otherwise you're just going to be missing out on the greatest bull run in history by holding gold.

Oil is low not because "supply" is high. Its low because global demand for it slowing. Trying to reduce its supply won't magically increase the oil price. The trend is long term decline for oil in general.

>by holding gold
>gold
*bitcoin

Everybody is sitting on their gains until next fiscal tax year because they think Trump will give them huge tax breaks for capital gains.

Huge market selloff in January, JUST like last year. Then Trump is sworn in and begins doing stupid shit that will cause inflation and blow up the debt long term. Real estate always outperforms during inflation, and so Trump wins.

A decade of stagflation. Dow 21,000 by 20204.

anyone still alive?

gold is now even lower than 1150$

>Real estate always outperforms during inflation, and so Trump wins.

Hahahaha I like how you just assume everybody knows why he is doing this prez thing

I do agree with you though about everything you say, real estate will clearly be the winner during his term

>bitcoin

ether*

So I dont speak $,
lets say I have been working and have no debt and have a little nest egg. Would a financial crisis make it a buyers market for a house? I work in the health care profession.

the Fed also plans to raise it 3 more times next year. I'm freaking out about yellen while all my friends are freaking out that trump is an ebul man. they dont care, dont understand or think I'm yelling the "sky is falling." /pol/ doesn't give a shit either.

any advice for a person that makes 25,000 a year and has no assets or anything and I'm not about to start trading?

it will continue going up until near the end of trumps term.

/thread

I got out of amd today and bought bac & GS. Banks are going to make a big move next year at the expense of the more growth oriented companies.

Trump could have won as a democrat too

Yeh because all branches of government under GOP control never ends with a recession

Oh wait. It ends with a recession every time

>unless Trump does something stupid
What about those treaties he wants to cancel? That sounds stupid enough to me.

whew lad, do you get your news from facebook too?!

The U.S. government isn't some monolithic influential economic force. There are many more variables to consider other than just 'which party is in power'.

>lived through one Republican presidency in entire lifetime
>every time