Anyone else pulling out of stocks until the crash? The bull market has gone on so long now...

t. bag holder trying to rationise his stock purchases at the end of a business cycle

>what are index funds
>what are regular contributions to a 401k

I'm not a permabear. At all. But do tell, what exactly is going to push this market higher? Cash balances in US mutual funds are at a 5 year low, so with no institutional support, where exactly is this super rally going to come from?

The only significant source of cash besides institutions are the dumb plebs who sit around going "Wow! Look at the S&P go! I want to be part of that!" These are the same people who will pull every dime from the market at the first sign of trouble. We might get a blow off top, but there is nothing sustainable here, fundamentally.

>if I keep rationalising my stupid buys maybe they'll eventually give me profits

kek, keep buying goyim. Sold all my stocks end of November 2016 - made good profits from 2010 when I bought in to most of them. Sitting in cash, gold, silver and cobalt right now. Happy days ahead for me!

lol

"Muh metals"

Enjoy your no gains. Assuming the worst I have guns and ammo so I'll just come take your shit. (^:

Bubbles pop when nobody expects it. Based on the massive irrational gains and the general consensus that there is no risk, expect blooshed on wall street soon.

good luck bringing your guns and ammo into the UK mate.

also my metals have way outperformed the stock market since I bought them (mostly in 1998, added more over the decades though)

This.

After the election, everyone basically went "Trump is president and Congress is all republican! They'll be able to do whatever they want!" It's only just now that people are considering the possibility of Trump not getting whatever he wants. If the democrats filibuster and the bill has to be passed with budget reconciliation, it has to be deficit neutral, which means it will be shit compared to the bill that everyone had in mind when they went out and frantically bought stocks. There's dissent toward the bill even among some republicans.

You're so full of shit I can smell it from here.

Maybe it's just here in freedom land but the market has brought 7% steady gains for nearly a century now meanwhile gold has barely kept up with inflation. Even after 08 those who stayed in the market made mad gains in the years that followed.

I bet you get your advice from metalbugs on youtube.

Mathematics doesn't lie - check the gains in, for example, the S&P against the gains in gold since 1998. You'll be surprised.

This looks like a simulation

It's not a simulation some trading platforms just shut down and summarize your performance one day. Usually gold and silver trading with expected apocalypse dates

>where exactly is this super rally going to come from?
First of all, I never predicted a rally (let alone a "super rally" whatever that is). I'm smart enough not to predict the short-term direction of the markets. The only one making that mistake is you.

Secondly, the market is not a closed system. With a healthy U.S. economy, solid domestic profitability, increased international growth, low unemployment, rising payrolls, increasing net investment, and high consumer confidence, we're likely to see net inflows into investment assets.

Bottom line: we've been hearing the click-bait bullshit crash predictions every year since 2009. Your track record sucks. And even when you eventually do "correctly" predict a downturn (which is inevitable, since you've been predicting it every year for the last seven years and show no signs of stopping), you've still fuck it up by missing the re-entry point.

If you have some evidence that market timing works, now would be the time to post it. Because I have two decades of Dalbar studies that proves you're advocating a losing strategy. So unless you've got something more than "muh gut feeling" I think we're done here.

this

Once again, you're firing the permabear accusations at the wrong person. I was not bearish until a bit after the election. You know, when forward PEs for the S&P exploded and all the analysts up and down Wall Street put on their strongest rose-colored glasses before upgrading all of their earnings estimates.

I haven't mentioned the possibility of a crash even one time in this entire thread. My point is that markets are fully valued, at a minimum. There is no money to be made buying fully valued securities.

What crash? First, you have to explain why you think there's going to be a crash.

Trump's going to make everything amazing and great!

You ain't seen nothing yet! This time it's different.

PEs have been high relative to historic norms for years. Since you're making the predictions, using the same arguments, and relying on the same "indicators" as other permabears, you rightly earn the title.

>I haven't mentioned the possibility of a crash even one time in this entire thread.
Fair enough. But you're still trying to make a prediction about the future short-term direction of the markets, and you're still advocating some form of market timing.

Just because you don't display the same hubris and arrogance as most market timers doesn't change the fact that you're advocating a losing investment strategy.

>"Oh wow. There is a serious lack of new, positive news now to drive this market."
Except there's been boatloads of good news? Rate hikes, earning growth expectations, better tax environment. Those things are fucking huge.

>bag holding
I don't think you know what that means. It means that you're holding a stock that's gone down, the opposite of the market we're in, unless you bought some dumb shit like valeant.

Sweet graph you have there bro, it totally correlates to the market meaning it's a great indicator of the future. You're a retard. What pushes it higher? Earnings.

market corrections are scary, but there is always an upside afterwards. If there wasn't, no one would bother investing. What is important is not to risk everything in a few random stocks because individual companies are incredible risk. Especially ones that have internal problems like high debt.

>Based on the massive irrational gains and the general consensus that there is no risk
Uhhhh, what? The fuck have you been listening to? Literally no one is saying that.

about 3 years before that m8.

you're missing out on sweet gains.

I cashed out my $62k mutual fund before the new year, did I fuck up?

Why not just put a stop loss on your shit OP?

Was it in a 401K/503b? Did you turn it into real cash? Then yes, you fucked up. If you just turned your mutual fund holdings into money market holdings within the 401K/etc then no, you're OK. But then what is your time horizon?

Anybody here that tells you to sell everything and go to cash without also offering your re-entry points or alternatives is a troll. Timing markets is fraught with peril, but if you were up 18% last year and felt too exposed to beta then OK, you just rebalanced and paid taxes. Not tax efficient, but everyone has to sleep at night.

The hardest thing to get into young people's heads, especially on Veeky Forums. is that you NEED to think about your investing horizon. I'm a GenX fucker and I've seen several 'end of the world' corrections in my life. I even remember talking about Oct 87 in school and it came back in 3 months. If you are investing for retirement and you're under 50 you need to stay invested. If you're just playing with cash money in a brokerage account you need to ask yourself what you're saving it for and when you leave.

Day trading is really easy when the overall market is headed up. All boards catch the big wave. But if you can't sleep at night with your allocation then you need to spend more thought on your strategy.

I'm up over $1 million in the past 5 years, but I'm still in it for another 10 years. I've rebalanced and I sleep well at night.

The market cannot go higher if no one has money to actually bid the shares higher, retard. There has already been an enormous rotation from fixed income to equities. So again, with no money coming in from other asset classes and institutions having no capital left to deploy, where is the money to drive this market higher going to come from?

You think all of that information isn't already integrated into the market? It already expects all those things to happen, hence the enormous S&P run between the election and the end of the year. There needs to be NEW information on top of the information that is already expected and integrated into prices.

I work in this field and have colleagues at many of the bulge brackets. What I wrote is exactly what the sentiment up and down the Street is. There was euphoria after the election because everyone assumed that fiscal stimulus would make it through Congress without a hitch and would look exactly like Trump proposed. There is now major reservations about that, hence the market pause.

>I'm up over $1 million in the past 5 years, but I'm still in it for another 10 years. I've rebalanced and I sleep well at night.
Reading this board makes me feel bad about my life

>The market cannot go higher if no one has money to actually bid the shares higher
Stop projecting. Just because you don't have either the income or the capital to invest, doesn't mean that applies to the market as a whole.

I said this before, but you didn't seem to understand it: the market is not a closed system. Slow down, read it carefully, and try to understand what that means. Then you might see why your statement about shifting bond allocations is largely meaningless.

>he tries to time the market
>he doesn't simply pursue a buy and hold strategy with asset allocation corresponding to his investment time horizon

Shiggy diggy

No one is projecting anything.

Please. Name me one significant source of capital that could be tapped to purchase more stock and run the market higher right now. One.

do not feel bad fampai. you got repeating digits.

aboriginal pepe smiles down upon you from the dreamlands

if you reply to this post with "MONEY YINGOOOOOOO" you will make rich gains and be blessed with good timing this year

MONEY YINGOOOOOOO

2017- Year of the OTC M8...watch

MONEY YINGOOOOO

Bless me with your spooky coon magic, kek

Please stop role-playing a banker or investor or whatever you think you are, you have to be 18+ to post here.

MONEY YINGOOOOOOO
pls help me aboriginal pepe

>No money is going into this one single type of find therefore the markets will stop trading and crash
>Nevermind that money still is going in to my only source just at a lower rate
>Nevermind that new entrants come in every day to fill any holes
>Nevermind that we see increasing capex

>Name me one significant source of capital that could be tapped to purchase more stock and run the market higher right now.
Increased discretionary savings from middle and upper class incomes, which are trending higher.

Increased capital investment from businesses as U.S. profitability continues its strong growth.

Increased foreign investment since the strong dollar and stable U.S. markets make an attractive choice to park dollars.

>One.
Oops, that was three. Guess you were right after all.

MONEY YINGOOOOO

also, you would be retarded to sell now. The first year of Trump's presidency is going to be great for markets due to the infrastructure spending.

>Trying to time the market

wew

DOW 25,000

MONEY YINGOOOOOOO

Yes. Stock market highs are to be expected with a Trump victory. Justifies rate hikes, crashes the value of bonds, thus setting the stage for bank solvency issues all while painting the picture of a booming recovery being handed to Trump for him to "mess up" (be blamed for the planned financial crisis)

>No money is going into this one single type of find therefore the markets will stop trading and crash

I've never once said there will be a crash. I'm predicting tepid markets, at most, based on two factors: 1) There is no substantive source of new money flows for stocks, and 2) there are no fresh headlines to justify higher S&P levels.

The Trump/Ryan fiscal agenda is already fully priced in, at the very least. Senate confirmations and the passage of that fiscal agenda will take us until Q3 2017, at the earliest. Repeating already well known information will not drive prices, so we will be left with a vacuum of new, positive headlines or developments for the first two quarters. The possibility of a negative development occurring is unknown but non-zero.

>Increased discretionary savings from middle and upper class incomes, which are trending higher.

Of your 3, this has the most plausibility. Gross savings may grow, but the savings rate tends to drop as the economy heats up. It remains to be seen which of these factors will overpower the other.

>Increased capital investment from businesses as U.S. profitability continues its strong growth.

You're not getting what it means to have new money flows into equities. Someone has to have the money to buy a share at $105 instead of at $100. If no one has the money to pay $105, then the price will remain at $100. Capex has nothing to do with this.

>Increased foreign investment since the strong dollar and stable U.S. markets make an attractive choice to park dollars.

It's widely anticipated that the dollar will continue to appreciate, particularly if the Fed rate hike cycle gets quicker, a tax holiday for overseas earnings occurs, or if the "border adjustment" tax/trade protectionism goes through. The strong dollar is an impediment to foreign investment, not a tailwind.

kek speaks in this one

MONEY YINGOOOOOOO

Please Abo Pepe, I never talked shit about abos on /pol/

Yup. Buy at the highest point of fear, and sell at the highest point of exuberance. This is much less easy than it sounds though...

there's plenty of fear about this dow 20k thing

>Capex has nothing to do with this.
Capex drives demand. Demand drives profitability. Profitability drives relative pricing (e.g., P/E) and yield. P/E and yield drive stock prices.

This isn't an Econ 101 story problem. This is the real world.

>The strong dollar is an impediment to foreign investment, not a tailwind.
A strong dollar is only an impediment to foreign currency investment, which I never mentioned. I said foreign investment, which refers to U.S. profits earned by foreign multi-national corporations and investors.

Foreign companies and investors both own substantial U.S. assets and have substantial U.S. business, and they get paid in U.S. dollars. When the dollar is strong (relative to their home currency) rather than patriate those dollars back to Germany, England, France, China or wherever, they will instead invest them in the U.S. They'll buy new investment assets and they'll make new capital expenditures, both of which, as we've already discussed, drive stock prices higher.

The U.S. runs a substantial trade deficit. This represents foreign companies earning U.S. dollars from U.S. consumers. Those dollars don't magically turn into the home currency of the company who sold us those goods. A strong dollar makes it uneconomical to take those dollars out of the U.S. economy, so instead they get invested right here.

You have a very shallow understanding of the markets, and you cling very tightly to this notion that unless grandpa has a pile of cash sitting in his savings account, the markets can't go up. Well, grandpa stopped being relevant to the movement of the markets 40 years ago. There are larger forces at work, and you seem wholly ignorant of their existence, let alone their influence.

Look, if you want to time the market, feel free. Go to cash and hold onto your dry powder. There's even a chance you'll be right about the timing of pullback. Probably not, statistically speaking, but don't let that stop you snowflake.

Pro tip: economcs are like 15% party based tops.

Fed just raised interest rates because fuck you.

Just buy OWCP. I'm up 8000%.

i should've pulled out of your mom haha xD

kys

I'm going to explain this as simply as I know how: in order for stock prices to rise ****the person on the other trade actually has to have enough money to actually fucking complete it.****

When the price of a stock goes up (an uptick), that means that there has been a positive money flow into the stock. If institutions have no money left (Hint: they don't; cash balances at 5 year lows), then there cannot be positive money flows and prices cannot go up. Once again, capex has absolutely nothing to do with this process.

The fact that you are telling me that I "have a shallow understanding of markets" and that I'm "wholly ignorant" of fucking anything while simultaneously being completely oblivious to what actually makes prices go up and down at the trading level is rich.

>the person on the other trade actually has to have enough money to actually fucking complete it
I already explained where the new investment capital can come from. In fact, Mr. Short Memory, you already admitted I was right, at least in part. You're just too stupid to realize that your argument has been completely refuted. I'm not going to waste time repeating the same objective facts to you since you seem hopelessly committed to your bubble of denial and ignorance.

Let's be honest here: You keep saying the same stupid comment: "hurr derr no new money." But there WILL be new money, especially as long as the economy grows as expected. This is simple economics and is not subject to reasonable debate.

>What happened to you? You started out as a reasonable poster, but even when multiple people point out the logical fallacy of your argument you just keep splurging the same stuff.

In takes $10,000 to move your average stock price. It doesn't matter whose on the other side of your trade (protip: 98% it's your broker stepping in the middle of the transaction).

To say institutions have no cash on hand left is a wrong statement. Do some research before you say things that make you look very ignorant.

...

MONEY YINGOOOOOOO

OH PLEASE MAKE THE BTC HURT GO AWAY

Okay. Enjoy shit returns this year. Go ahead. I'll remember this conversation.

>Okay. Enjoy shit returns this year. Go ahead. I'll remember this conversation.
Thanks. I remember the same conversation in 2009.

And 2010.

And 2012.

And 2013.

And 2014.

And 2016.

Funny thing is ... my portfolio is up 250% in that time, and none of those people who repeatedly told me I should dump my stocks ever came back to say "told ya so." So you can only imagine how moved I am by your bold declaration, snowflake.

Amen brother.

So many people are sitting on the sidelines, just waiting for the "dip."

Y pulling it out man? All you Need is the right mixture and the on the long run... you alway win...

This is the smart move

>T. Warren Buffett

MONEY YINGOOOOOO