Which nation are we most likely going to see balkanize in the near future, given their recent history?

What independent nations would come about if America balkanized? Most pictures I've seen of what it could look like and pic related have states that surely couldn't survive economically.

Your background is extremely interesting. What languages do you speak?

If you feel like it, I'd be interested in hearing more about both Oman and India. Specifically Ibadism, islamic/ist terrorism in India, and India's politics.

I'd never allow those people from the armpit of America to call themselves fellow "Americans" after the U.S. balkanizes

>spain
>uk

yes

>france
>germany

why?

>russia
>china

no

St. John's and not Halifax?

Also, you'd be more likely to see borders not based on state lines in many places, especially if the point was to group like-minded people.

we can only hope for Saudi Arabia
I'm not so sure it seems the country is actually getting its shit together to the point it might stay

Well Oman is a great country desu. Its got a really interesting history and Muscat used to be an important port in the Indian Ocean trade, so its got a rich maritime history. Its a Sultanate and the current Sultan is loved by both Omanis and expats. Ibadiism is the state religion and Ibadis are of course a unique sect of islam but since they allow freedom of worship there everyone gets along and they dont enforce and preach their doctrine. Its a laid back country and a lot of the actual Omanis are from former Omani overseas territories like Balochistan and Zanzibar.

No actual terrorism there. Half the population is from the subcontinent and the Phillippines and everyone just accepts each other. Its uniquely tolerant in the middle east. There are of course limitations like no alcohol within 500m of a mosque, government censorship and no food eaten outside during ramadan but nothing near Saudi levels of censure and punishment.

Pic related thats the sultan. Great guy. Launched a coup against his dad who was an incredibly cruel man and really made Oman what it is today

...

Turkey will likely balkanize, their Kurdish population is already 25% of the country's total population and growing.

Average Kurdish woman has 4-5 kids, average Turkish woman has 1-2.

In 2 or 3 generations (Kurd generations, which is like 14 years each) the country will become majority Kurdish.

I'd like to see the Lakota republic, independent California and Texas and Hawaii be a consitutional monarchy. The rest can sort themselves out.

Didn't he launch his coup because his dad called him a fag because he liked showtunes and was going to make him destroy his records? Sounds like a pretty alright guy desu; if his dad wasn't going to let his son listen to musicals he was almost certainly going to stomp out any kind of cultural freedom in his subject.

>Muscat used to be an important port in the Indian Ocean trade, so its got a rich maritime history
They've managed to set Salalah up as a major container transshipment port in the past decade or so, so they'll be maintaining that heritage.

I decided to split the post into two.

We have a multi-party system but most states vote for communal leaders, some of whom are honestly treated like absolute monarchs if not gods. An ex leader of Maharashtra (Bal Thackeray), the current ones in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will probably never lose power. As for the national level, there are only two real parties (the Congress and the BJP) with a chance at forming a government and all the former governments have been formed by these two or a coalition. If anything goes wrong one side accuses the other of either corruption or mismanagement and this goes on ad infinitum.

Indian politics is complicated. The line between politics, religion and communalism is extremely blurry here.

Like 80% of the country is hindu and the rest are christian, muslim, jain, buddhist, sikh and zoroastrian etc. But even the minorities are a significant part of the voting population so theres a lot of vote bank politics. We have a reservation system in both parliament and in government, education institutions. What this basically means is that if you're not either handicapped, from a minority or an oppressed class you have to work ten times as hard and beat ten times the competition to get anywhere in life.

I know I make it sound bad but its a comically sad situation. If you're honestly interested I suggest you look up Arnab Goswami on youtube to really understand what our media is like.

As for myself. I only speak English and the de facto national language hindi. Thats because my mom is a catholic and my father a brahmin ( an upper caste hindu). They had what we call an inter-caste marriage which is a rare occurance. Plus they're both from different regions so thesr languages were their common ground.

Whoa that's really cool.

Can you make a thread tomorrow about Indian shit? This board is almost entirely Westerners whose only exposure to Indian culture are /pol/ memes and stereotypes in our media

How powerful is the Communist Party?

Also, do the Naxalite militants have any influence?

>country actually works together far more than early independence where there were major separatist movements.
>economic benefit of political unity is accepted even by the most hardcore of state's independence politicians.
>the civil service works incredibly as a binding agent.

India will get a few more states, especially in northern india as better administrative divisons. But it's not going to split apart you dumb retard. This isn't the days of Khalistani/South Indian/North Eastern Seperatism anymore.

The internet and TV have brought the country together.

>better relate to
>like bengalis and bangladeshis
>punjabis and pakistani punjabis
So basically you don't have any clue about what you are talking?

alt-hist maps are my fetish

This. Too bad there tends to be a large concentration of them dealing with the same time period and events.

Triggered. Who the fuck made this

The EU

I can hear the thought process behind this image [including the likely accent of the person who made it] just from looking at it

Ah well. At least they gave the northeast a nice map color, props for that

That or they're AUTISM: The Map

Spain probably.

I don't think the United States will exist in another century.

>The Republic of True America
I have no idea what this is, but it's going in the list alongside "The Brazilian Empire of Darkness" as the silliest name for any political entity I've ever seen on an alt-history map.

Alaska wouldn't balkanize like that. It would have to be attached to another entity that would supply them with goods and money for infrastructure in exchange for natural resources.

>Russia
>China
The only way I can see this happening any time soon is if they get completely wrecked in WW3

>Russia
Too big. Too diverse. They've never stopped fighting over who should and shouldn't belong.
>India
Too big. Too diverse. They've never stopped fighting over who should and shouldn't belong.

REPUBLIC OF HAWAI'I

This is absolute trash. The north and south split at a totally arbitrary and ridiculously stupid point, and the idea that states would divide along contemporary lines is just naive.

It's probably meant to mimic the Missouri Compromise or some shit. Honestly, having lived in the south for the majority of my life I would say Florida would be separate from a 'confederate union' if the U.S. balkanized. Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, the Carolinas, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia would be the most likely to consolidate into a nation.
Can anyone else see Louisiana and the Caribbean islands grouping together as a trade confederacy?

>Syria
>Iraq
>UK
>Canada
>Ukraine
>Spain
>Italy

Maybe you're right. Maybe India will live on forever as a beacon of peace and unity. After all it breaking apart isnt a necessity, not currently at least. But dismissing the possibility of balkanization so summarily is a mistake.

Indians already have a strong sense of regional, communal, linguistic and religious historical belonging. If you look at it objectively, all that is necessary is a dissatisfaction with the union for it to be a mirror image of the balkans. I would go as far as to say yugoslavia had more in common as a union of southern slavs than India does as a union of the former subcontinental holdings of GBR.

As for my previous remark about closer relations of Bangladeshis with Bengalis, having lived in Oman where all of us are within the same borders, they tend to get along much better than with people from other parts of India such as Kerala or Gujarat which are the most common other people groups. After all, they do share the same history and culture. And they shared it all the way uptil the partition

Canada has had rather large Quebec separatist movements for awhile.
Last referendum was for no 49-51
I would imagine Quebec leaving would spur Western separatist movements which have been festering since the 80s

>Vancouver
>Capital of Cascadia
>Not Olympia

Alaska is rightful Cascadian clay

>France
>Balkanise
Are you aware that french ethnocide any culture in france?

the difference between the balkans and India is that India always had pressure valves built into it from the start to let off steam and allow for the shared cultures inside to flower.

The division of states is a good thing for India because it allows people a wide variety of rights and safeguard their culture while remaining in the nation.

I would refer to ramchandra guha's work.

>from my experiences in oman.
of course they will mingle more with a people that speak a common language and have a similar culture. You see the same thing in america with internaltional students from Latin america. It doesn't necessarily mean that Bengalis as a whole want to be a part of bangladesh, especially as bangladesh oscillates between a secular humanist bengali culture and a a full on Islamic WEWUZ bullshit.

Olympia is a shithole desu, it would be very low on my list for a capital. Just happened to be one rn

USA is already semi-independent states in a confederacy. Not hard to see some going full independent, given enough public outrage to cover it up.

>Indian myself so I'm not talking out of my ass.
No you're not talking out of your ass. You're POOing

I never said that Bengal would seccede to Bangladesh, I merely mentioned that they have a far closer cultural relationship than with the rest of India. The only reason I mentioned it was to bring attention to the fact that the borders of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh as they are - arent exactly drawn logically based on cultural similarities.

Also while you may not agree with how they interact abroad I think its important to take into account because in the extreme situation of the country disintegrating, we would see these as a more important indicator of friendship rather than being a part of an earlier nation.

The framework of India is effective and I agree on that point. It allows coexistence which is difficult to manage with such diversity, however when a dispute arises between two states or cultures, such as the Cauvery dispute it puts extreme pressure on the union govt. as a compromise has to be reached while keeping both groups satisfied. It is at times like these that its communal and linguistic ties are given priority over national ties and while such an issue hasnt come along just yet, one of great enough magnitude could inspire independence or seperatist movements.

>India
Cause: war with Pakistan (likely)

>UK
Cause: Scotland seceding (unlikely)

>Philippines
Cause: Opportunist separatists during an SCS conflict. (tossup)

>Turkey
Cause: The Kurds get what they want. (tossup)

>China
Cause: It's a recurring thing there every few years. A huge fucked up civil war is basically how they hold elections. They'll still reform into a large state afterwards.(inevitable, given a large enough time frame)

>EU
Cause: Although not technically balkanization, diverging policies and goals of member states will dissolve the union. (very likely)

>Pakistan, a state of 200 million, will destroy India, a state of 1200 million

lolno
Pakistan only exists because of western handouts, its on life support economically and administratively.
Also India has allies in the area, the BRICS group, while Pakistan has the USA and EU some distance away.
And very soon muslim will be a bad word, and the reason for Pakistan to exist as a separate entity to India is islam.

A full scale ground war or a nuclear exchange with Pakistan will definitely destabilize India. They'll survive, but not in one piece.

I don't think Shia Iraq will Anschluß any time soon. Iran's western provinces already have large Kurd, Arab and Azeri minority populations. Adding several million Arabs will only destabilize the country (make it even more Islam-based rather than an ethnic Persian nation-state) and upset the balance of power. It's more convenient for Iran to have a Shia-majority buffer state, besides.

But I agree that Sykes-Picot version 2.0 is coming in the next decade or two.

>growing up in Oman.
I have a few Indian friends and they all grew up in Oman as well, probably one of the same schools as you in Muscat? I assume your parents were middle-class clerks of some kind. Most of my friend's parents were accountants or middle-managers, etc. Are you Christian?

The Quebec separatist movement is basically moribund. It could come back, sure, but I don't see that happening soon. Young(er) people generally don't vote for the separatist party (Bloc Quebecois), and Quebecfags have been bought off with even more autonomy and hush-money funding agreements. Despite this, Montreal and Quebec generally are economically fading. They'll have even less clout or reason to separate in 50 years.

>not in one piece
and why would they randomly break apart?

My dad still lives in Oman, he works in a managerial role in accounts of a vegetable oils and derivatives MNC. My mom used to work in the tourism/rent a car line. But no. Im not a christian. My mom is, and my dad is a hindu.

No, Aberdeen is a shithole.

And you're right, Seattle is a much better candidate for Cascadia's capital

Considering we are rapidly running out of resources. Should be quite a few pretty soon

Olympia is sick.

This is retarded. Where the fuck would a kingdom come from?

>russia
>EU if/when it has become federation

Wait Oman had territory in Balochistan? That's insane. How did they end up there?

Hell, most Persian & Afghan dynasties had trouble dealing with the Baloch (even modern Iran/Pakistan). Oman pulling it off for any stretch of time is really impressive desu. Another item on the list of that whole Oman/Yemen/Ethiopia/Zanzibar corridor being tragically underrated.

The UK. We don't know what will happen to England's economy good or bad, but Scotland wants independence, NI voted for the EU and its already shit economy will collapse completely without EU funding and Wales relies a lot on the EU as well.

One town at the extreme southwest of modern Pakistan, closer to Muscat than Islamabad.

Oman's empire was based largely on slave trading, so when the British banned it (and enforced it on the east coast of Africa), Oman's imperial fortunes dried up.

>Republic of Burgandy
>not Duchy

After Putin dies/is killed and if there's some struggle for power and if the West doesn't pussy out again, some region will be removed, including Crimea, the Caucasus and the regions around the Black sea.

China always finds a way to reform.
I would say the same would happen with the US.

>Federal Republic of Texas
>No Texas
Also:
>Northern Mexico as a whole
>Not divided as Provincias Unidas de Oriente and Occidente

>Indian myself
My mental voice changed to thay of a stereotypical indian
thanks

Western Russia is otherwise pretty stable inside the federation. If anything, it'll be Siberian portions that gravitate to China. I don't think they'll join, but they might split off... If the patronage from Moscow ever dries up, they definitely will. China (and to a lesser extent Japan) are already the sources of everything there, rather than western Russia. Resource rich and being wooed by chinks? What do you think will happen?

>Cause: Scotland seceding (unlikely)

>implying

The first vote failed but it's almost guaranteed to happen within our lifetimes. Firstly, the no voters were mostly older people who will be dead in a decade or two, and secondly, with the UK leaving the EU tension in Scotland is only higher, after all every region in Scotland voted to stay in the EU.

There is no reason for Moscow and Siberia to split because they both work together for high profits. If anything the Caucasus is obvious choice here.

>I would say the same would happen with the US.
Depends on how you define "The US"

Scotland, to join the EU must be granted access. Belgium and Spain have said they'll veto it.

Secondly Scotland's big argument for independence is oil, and it's drying up fast.

That's such bullshit. Scotland can't sustain on its own at all, not after the latest GERS report proving that the Northern Oil reserves are dead as a donkey.

Belgium??
Also why dont they just kick rural England out of the UK, then everyone will be happy

Fuck off, Farron

Syria, Libya, Mali, Ukraine, Yemen, Central African Republic, Greece, Venezuela, Mauritania, Cameroon, Djibouti, Hungary, Angola, Micronesia, Mozambique, Eritrea, Russia, Burundi, Guatemala, Nigeria

What part of nuclear exchange do you not understand.

>Russia

Not happening buddy, not until WW3 at least.

>I don't think the United States will exist in another century.

Why not?

>nukes fall
>ok guys' we are going to form our own country now.
At least explain what you mean.
Western observers regularly expected india to fail ever since it was made because it was seen as too diverse. During the early days of the union there were a few legit chances of secession movements. The aforementioned pressure valves work perfectly.

Since then the prosperity of India has gone up and people have realized the usefulness of politcal unions. Wars have a way of uniting a country's population especially if it is seen as a cowardly attack.

More like
>Nukes fall
>The central government and major population centers cease to exist
The same thing would happen to the US or USSR/Russia in an exchange between the two.

People were also sure about USSR being eternal and see how it goes.

Brazil and SAfrica wouldn't give a fuck.
China might as well goes with Pakistan, as they have en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Pakistan_Economic_Corridor

Like 90% of these fucking referendums the choice is between a realistic approach of 'by doing this incredibly stupid thing you'll fuck us both over' or 'wehay independence meme magic' and the meme magic voters don't tend to care for facts.

t. annoyed voter

>unitedtugal

I think Vancouver would be an even better candidate. Seattle certainly is a huge metropolitan area, but it doesn't truly embody what I see as the spirit of the PNW. Vancouver does that much better, and is in my opinion is a much more impressive and accessible city. I've lived in tacoma for years and spent a lot of time in all of the major cities so I'm not just speaking out my ass.

Alaska would def not be its own thing, probably would be part of a PNW state as it is a natural resource focused rainforest area

Also fuck Olympia that shit sucks, and as a tacoman I know shitholes

Believe me I live in western washington so I know what you're talking about but really in terms of shitholiness per capita Oly has nothing on scaberdeen, it really has a great chance of winning the award for biggest blight on the west coast it's that big of a shithole. I'm talking going to the hospital and possibly contracting MRSA, HIV and hepatitis C after one operation levels of terrible.

But back on topic: honestly the capital really should be somewhere that's not too close to a major metropolitan area and should have some historical significance to both sides of the u.s./canadia pnw. So how about Victoria instead?

Pakistan

Tacoma and Olympia arewn't that bad.
But Seattle/Vancdouver would be the best choices, vancouver bein the3 best one

>Aberdeen Washington: Literally a shithole.

At least they gave us Kurt Cobain, but that's about it.

>Cumbria MP
>against rural England

>Also India has allies in the area, the BRICS group, while Pakistan has the USA and EU some distance away.
China's closest ally is Pakistan and vice versa.

Shit map, negro.

>occitania
>savoy
>normandy
what are you fucking smoking my man?

He hated Aberdeen too.

I grew up in Oman too, did you go to Bsm?