Snapchat IPO

First few days is still a few days profit as long as you get out before it starts to tank. Seems like a smart play to me but maybe I'm overlooking something. If it goes up 10% or so before tanking that's still good gainz in my book. Well placed limit sell order and stop losses should mitigate risk.

But yeah, long term I don't really see it going very far.

You need to make a video for us NEET's

Dead meme. Snap IPO will drop from day one. It won't die off it's just overvalued bigly

This.

Do we have a date yet?

good video man.

your videos are epic

hope u make it big my dude

Twitter had its worst day after its lock up period ended. Would it be a good idea to short Snapchat right before its lockup period ends?

This company is trash. Instagram is already closing in with their Stories feature, and people CBF updating 2 apps so they'll just stick with Insta where there's a larger userbase

Short it then faggot

Yes now what

how do I bet that the snapchat IPO will result in the stokc price of snapchat changing y mre than 10% of it's pre-IPO price?

I'm pretty sure this will happen so how do I place a bet using options or futures or whatever to make some easy money?

Instagram is not a publicly traded company. It's also really fucking hard to short during an IPO so shorting snapchat would be hard.

Here's a brain teaser for you, how does Snapchat make money? And how much money do they actually make? Keep in mind that they're seeking a $25bn valuation during this IPO. To put that into perspective was worth $16bn during its IPO, Amazon was worth on $438m during IPO, hell the Alibaba group (surely you're not all too young to remember that) was only worth $25bn itself. All of those firms had a means to make money, had solid management strategies, and had a somewhat diversity of products ready to produce profit for the respective firms.

What does snapchat have again? A free service on a free app? You think that's worth the same as Alibaba's IPO?

In order to short a stock during it's IPO then shares have to be available for you to borrow on margin to take a short position on (that's how shorting works), there often times aren't enough shares to go around during the first month of the IPO for any broker to allow you to borrow any on margin in order to short. Unless you're in really good with a really good broker (like if you spend $25k a month with a well-known broker in Long Island then you may be able to do this).

Shit load of people are going to buy this just like Facebook stock because its internet/app related and too many fucktards use it..

do you even use snapchat? You seem like you have zero idea of potential and existing revenue sources for SC. Download the app, watch your friends stories. Notice that advertisement that seamlessly starts playing, recorded with a phone to look like someones story, and by the time you realize it's an ad it's already half way over?

Have you swiped the camera screen right and seen all of the click bait (video-articles?) that magazines and other organizations literally pay up the ass to have there?

Instagram will never replace SnapChat for several reasons that I won't get into. Instagram and SnapChat will coexist forever. I'm buying and going long on this IPO.

like every tech stock, it shoots up, the owners sell a bunch, then it plummets to the floor never to recover

TDA says I need $250k in my account to trade IPO's. Is that some sort of regulation or are they just assholes? Is there an easy way to buy into this?

seriously, this fucking mongrel should be banned for spam

The entire point of this IPO is for the executives and earliest investors to get rich while leaving the employees in the dust.

To recruit top talent, a startup frequently promises a lot of shares to them so they think that they'll all be millionaires when the company finally goes public. Then when the startup has a cash offer to buy them out (for example, $3 billion) they turn it down because they would have to give most of that to the employees.

Instead they IPO so they can raise even more money from investors (there are limits on how much money they can raise by issuing shares while still a private company) while leaving the employees with a shitty stock price.

tl;dr Snapchat IPO is not designed to go to the moon.

that is a very accurate and insightful point. While financing their startup through an IPO, execs & earliest investors will get rich as fuck by stock options & capital gains respectively .

Their wealth will be ultimately created by analysts's expectations of future cash flows and new sources of revenue; it will be valued through the Net Present Value of Growth Opportunities, as opposed to actual earnings.

What I don't get, is why care about the employee? ? Are you working for them? No, you are an executive.

I think it will be similar to the Facebook IPO

>Bad start
>Slowly gains
>After 6 months starts becoming a winner

I say buy the dip 2 weeks in.

Holy shit, I posted my comments then saw your post.

GREAT FUCKING MINDS THINKIN ALIKE RIGHT HERE

keep making your videos fag, I find them funny.

Indeed

I think snap chat is the beginning, they have a good product, but I don't know about management or their business model.

Like what does it cost to keep running, because the labour can be outsources to the users. But that would require a major rewrite.

I would be careful if they not listed yet since there will be a million more snapchats in 10 years, but they started so they have an advantage so I would put a bit in there if I were interested in augmented reality and had money.

Its cool because phones are still popular, I am expecting something new this year or in the next 5 unless current cellphone giants try keep distracting users from the fact that it is not the best way to communicate by add new "feature", and making it more wow.

Implants and telepathy is the future, cellphones need to become cells

But I am more interested in Genius.com, this is going to be very NB for deep learning, and the future of telecom.

They are raising $3B, at a $25 billion dollar valuation. The shares are coming from past investors and new shares. Everyone's shares are only going to get diluted less than 12%, that's hardly "leaving employees in the dust". Many of them will still be millionaires.

>Instagram is not a publicly traded company
$FB. Facebook owns instagram.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is?

They're just assholes.

...

Last year they lost $500m... from a business point of view, Snapchat is the new Twitter. The only reason it has a high IPO price is because Bloomberg are reporting that "the kids say its cool"
AVOID - IPO stands for It's Probably Overpriced.

You guys are retards. Screencap this so I can laugh at you in a few years.

No guts no glory. Have fun investing in largecap insurance companies, fags.

>2013
>bitcoin iz too risky!!

Snapchat is going to smash the market. Their revenue is growing unimaginably fast, if it contunes anywhere near this rate $25 billion will be a steal. You have to understand that they only started releasing ads in mid 2015, the company hasn't even taken it's first breath yet. You haven't seen anything yet, their ad platform is going to improve tremendously, but lucky for you it is still in it's infancy. We are at the elbow of a huge exponential curve. Snapchat gives companies a cool, hip way to reach those all-important millennials. Snooty wallstreeters and riskfags are going to be kicking themselves in the teeth like "Why didn't I invest in such a valuable brand with huge room to grow?" Out of all social media, Snapchat is #1 in advertiser satisfaction. The only reason snapchat is not profitable right now is because they are buying huge social media and AR companies that will pay off 5 fold in the future. It's a companies in it's early days, right now we can only see the tip of the iceberg so of course it's not valued at $100 billion yet. Debate me faggots, or better yet short the company and make a bunch of money off of me if you're so damn sure it's going to flop. This might be the only chance we get to having another bitcoin like investment, better take it while you can before the world's population stops growing exponentially and your S&P indexes run sideways.

Remember to buy at the end of the dip and ride it to 100 though.

Honestly, very few actually do but most just talk shit about it. I don't either but I am Gen X. I know lots of kids adore Snapchat though.

Fuck man you make it sound so good, I always regretted missing Google because I noticed it after its IPO and said 'meh 150 sounds like enough how the heck does it make money?'

I am halfway toward begging my parents to put the 35K in their fund into this stock because of this post.

I think you're right, snapchat is the social network of the next generation. Once the advertisers hop on, they'll be rolling in money.

HOLY SHIT!

Snapchat only $18.5 billion now according to insiders. 26% cheaper!

ft.com/content/f31e123a-f41a-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

Thank you Jesus.

you're subhuman filth. Not even joking, wouldn't want you anywhere near my country

>face
more like dick.

WHEN IS IT GONNA GO PUBLIC?

Hi Evan, thanks for stopping by.

Disgusting.

>>/pol
/biz is not a board to play out your raycis fantasies , we talk about business and entrepreneurship here you dumb meme

On March 2, "according to a document seen by Fortune"

It's worthless, has no value, and is actually the opposite of a profitable business venture and shuld have stayed an app on an appstore instead of a desperate company's bid to stay relevant.

Much like facebook, it will go up despite reality. Buy it instantly.

IMO you should wait to see how they handle all of the other social media players adding Snapchat like functionality

>Instagram
techcrunch.com/2017/01/30/attack-of-the-clone/
>Facebook
techcrunch.com/2017/01/25/facebook-stories/
>Snow (the Chinese Snapchat)
techcrunch.com/2017/01/04/snow-the-asian-snapchat-clone-facebook-tried-to-buy-claims-40-50m-monthly-users/
>Whatsapp
tribune.com.pk/story/1330174/facebook-instagram-now-whatsapp-copying-snapchat/

What's their next move once the entire world has finished ripping off their product? Those dumb SnapChat Spectacles? Yeah sorry, but if that's what they consider to be good "innovation" then I'm not so hot on their future (wearables are a dicey investment in general DESU). The other major area they seem to be experimenting in is "augmented reality" (like filters or Pokemon Go), which is mostly overhyped fad/meme bullshit. There is a damn good reason that Pokemon Go fell off of a cliff popularity wise once the initial interest wore off. The technology underpinning it was bland. I'd love to hear all about how people are going to be dying to use Snap Spectacles to walk around with bullshit like directions and restaurant reviews being projected in front of their face, even though Google tried the same shit years ago with Glass and it flopped. I'm not saying augmented reality doesn't have potential, I just don't think we're that close to turning that potential into something significant and useful. Additionally, I don't think Snapchat is going to be the company with the maturity to realize that potential. My bet would be that the AR leader of the future is going to be one of the juggernauts like Google/Apple/Microsoft/Facebook, all of which have a major head start in terms of spending and research. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that unless I see a dramatic uptick in Snapchat's growth (which is beginning to stagnate) or a clear, new strategy from Spiegel, I'm not jumping on this train.

>shitty on spooky spectacles

Pleb

Something else just hit me looking at that chart. Assuming that trends persist, Q1 2017 might be actually the first quarter where they see a decline in daily active users. Naturally, this would be a horrible look for the company, which is banking on major growth to justify its valuation. I feel like they might be rushing to IPO just before Q1 2017 ends just so they can get over with before that nasty Q1 user growth data drops. Fortune seems to be curious about the timing as well.
fortune.com/2016/11/16/snapchat-ipo-facebook/
Additionally, their former growth lead is claiming that they have been misrepresenting growth data to bolster their standing ahead of the IPO.
forbes.com/sites/kathleenchaykowski/2017/01/05/former-snapchat-employee-alleges-company-inflated-growth-metrics/#2b9cfa9354dd

My theory could be off, but all I'm saying is that I have my questions/doubts.

No way in hell is snapchat going to do well in the long run. Its stock and fad sense of brand is retarded. They cant even innovate their social media at a faster rate then facebook.

I run a business thats better suited to be on stock exchange than these baffoons

see
>Much like facebook, it will go up despite reality. Buy it instantly.

>implying anyone is going to still be using snapchat in 5 years

Kids will move on to the next fad in social media as they always do. Snapchat only plays out as a good investment IFFFF they can continue growing into profitability and IFFFF they manage to stay relevent. Which they won't. Enjoy bagholding SNAP til the end of eternity.

Apparently, they are already bombing. I don't see any hype for them anywhere and the NYC Spectacle store is empty. Plus if they were truly a hot selling item you better believe that Snap Inc would be beating their chest about it before the IPO, but I haven't heard a word from them about growing Spectacle popularity
cnbc.com/2017/01/26/snapchat-nyc-spectacles-store-is-mostly-empty.html

Things are getting spooky indeed, especially when you consider that Spiegel keeps calling Snapchat a "camera company" in interviews and their first standalone camera was a dud. Add that to this survey that just came out indicating that most Snap users would be happy to switch to a new app
(techrepublic.com/article/data-snap-inc-s-users-might-be-ready-to-jump-ship/) and yeah, I'm just not seeing this as a good investment right now. Also, look out for a potential Galaxy Note type melting scandal, which would be a huge kick in the balls for the company (ibtimes.sg/will-snapchat-ipo-take-hit-curious-case-melting-spectacle-case-7262)

How many times do I need to fucking tell you? Buy the fucking dip

Snap is doomed, this is the final nail in their coffin and for all the big people to cash out before the fall. Do your homework bizmen

Also to add, why hasnt snap focusrf towards VR technology as opposed to the routes they been taking. Do they really believe that a eyeglasses spectacle shop would help them? This is like that facebook home bullshit that happened but worse. They should make clothing or style fashion. Why are they so out of touch with real people.

It's going to pull a Twitter and drop below it's IPO price in short order. It will not continue to go up despite reality.

Missed ur ticket to the boat it's leaving the harbor heading for the moon

But Snapchat has the advantage of being the first to the table.

90% of the time the player who gets first to the table becomes the dominant power.

The only notable exception being MySpace which was run like a bunch of retards humping a doorknob, so it was not hard for Zuckerjew to vastly improve upon the model.

I think Snap will continue to dominate the instant photo sharing world for a while, but that ultimately won't be enough to justify anything even remotely close to a $20+ billion valuation. The user growth just isn't there anymore and the company is proving to be a one trick pony with shitty ideas (Spectacle, for example). Right now, they're losing an absolute fuckton of money ($514 million in 2016). Yeah their revenue increased by 6x in 2016, but that's only because they were doing fuck all to monetize their app 2015. They actually only lost $327 million in 2015 so their situation isn't really improving. Without significant user growth or some fantastic new innovation, they are going hit a brick wall. You can only monetize your existing user base so much.

Tech, especially social, is in a bubble which is on the verge of popping. Once Snap takes a shit and Twitter gives up hope of ever turning a profit people are going to realize that the "It's OK for our platform to bleed colossal amounts of cash because ONE DAY we will figure out some magical new method of monetizing our service" meme is absolute bullshit. Yearly, Uber is losing $3 billion, Twitter is losing about $520 million, Linkedin is losing hundreds of millions, Snap is losing over $500 million etc. It's only a matter of time before investors smarten up and realize that just because a platform can attract a large numbers of users doesn't mean it's sustainable.

>Tech, especially social, is in a bubble which is on the verge of popping

How'd you like missing the latest bull run?

It's coming sometime between now and 2020. Tech (mainly social), Real Estate (especially SF and NYC) and Student Debt are the next three bubbles to pop.

>youtube.com/watch?v=W7jzMN9x778

Thanks for the video, man. I'm just going to buy a little bit and see what happens. If I lose, I won't lose much, but if I win, it's going to be a crazy payoff. With snapchat it's totally worth it.

youtube.com/watch?v=nn2UZRL2DE0

new vid

Nobody can see a bubble. That's what makes it a bubble.

Meant for

Bag holder exhibit 1

Agreed

this thing will fucking tank

There were people mistakenly buying snap interactive thinking it was snapchat. It's the same thing when people were mistakenly thinking they were buying twitter before it IPO'd. When twitter finally did go public, there was a 73% increase that day.

What I'm saying is that a day 1 day trade of snapchat is almost guaranteed to make you money.

>there is a tech, real estate, and student debt bubble
>this information isn't reflected in the price of those assets
>Veeky Forums knows more than investors on wall street

Would you please give me some actual evidence that a bubble is taking place? I want proof, if you can't prove it there is no reason I should believe it.

When is this happening?

lmao snap is a good app but really shitty at generating $. Going to fall like a rock after the ipo

>a big youtuber with tons of subscribers subscribed to my other channel

March 2

>Going to fall like a rock after the ipo
Why don't you short it then?
>"because I'm not sure it's going to fall"
Yeah, thought so, bitch.

You remind me of this guy a bit

>Tech
Tech as a whole will be fine, but these social media/sharing based companies which are burning through astonishing amounts of cash at sky-high valuations based on nothing but their user base are going to get checked hard in the near future. Not only are virtually all of these businesses incredibly overvalued, but some of them likely aren't even sustainable. The Snapchat IPO flop is going to be what makes this apparent to people. Even Spiegel sees this coming, hence why the IPO price has dropped from possibly $40 billion, down to $25 billion and the down to somewhere between $16-18 billion on Tuesday. Investors aren't buying his bullshit.
>Real Estate
Real Estate in general will be fine, but the high-end real estate market in certain major cities (NYC especially) is so fucking distorted right now (mainly by shady foreign buyers) it's crazy. The prices that some of these apartments are going for in these cities simply don't reflect any type of practical reality.
>Sudent Loans
Short that shit
seekingalpha.com/article/3857616-student-loan-bubble-profit-8_5-percent-yield-2018
Unless Trump turns out to be an economic miracle man for millennials there is no god damn way that these debt holders aren't going to get fucked.

The Snapchat IPO is going to be a bloodbath by Spring. When those Q1'17 () daily user numbers come out at a 0-2% decline over last quarter, fucking yikes m8. Snapchat is not even remotely close to generating a profit right now, and they need major, sustained growth to justify their valuation. 17.2%, down to 7%, down to 3.2%, down to -1% or so would prove that growth simply isn't happening, and leave them with three rough choices:

1. Try to do everything they can to recapture the magic and increase their user base. Yeah good luck with that shit, especially now that competition is heating up on all sides (). Getting something to "pop" again once it stops being cool and starts to plateau (or even decline) is a nightmare.

2. Squeeze more revenue out of their existing customer base by increasing ad sales, making ads more obtrusive, adding paid bullshit etc. The only problem there is that all of that irritating stuff is what will drive users to Instagram's/Facebook's Snapchat clones even more rapidly, which is exactly what they don't need.

3. Start focusing on the other areas of their business. The thing is, their other ideas are garbage. Spectacles (a stupid, unoriginal, gimmicky idea to begin with) are failing to generate any hype.
time.com/4659037/snapchat-spectacles/
The other ideas they have in the pipeline appear to be even worse. So far all I've seen them propose is more augmented reality work and possibly a Snapchat phone. If they even attempt to make a smartphone, strap in and prepare for carnage. Amazon and Microsoft got BTFO so hard on their smartphones that they had to leave the industry in shame, and the Google Pixel isn't selling for shit right now. If you actually think that Snapchat is going to succeed where these juggernauts failed, I'm LMAOing at your life. So that leaves augmented reality, a meme that more dominant players (which aren't losing half a billion a year) are dumping cash into right now with limited results.

Well:

A) they said the same thing about Twitter

B) It's a neat little idea, and the moment another app with a neater idea comes along Snapchat is gonna get broken like a twig

you might be right, but I don't see any reason for someone to take a big risk on this IPO. If anything you are better throwing everything into Tesla.

Hmm...I see snapchat as an old thing.

That said I'll buy in at first crash.

I have a feeling this IPO is going to pop tech bubble 2.0...Lots of companies with too much money and not makign anything real. The rest of the market will be fine...hell may even rise, but BIG TECH is overdue for a haircut...Big boys pair down positions in the middle of the hype. Apple, Fb, Google. All gonna take a haircut in the next 3 years at some point, im a buyer then. This IPO is going to to EXACTLY what Twilio did...

I really don't know why they're billing themselves as a camera company. Their main product is their damn app. Plus, who the fuck would wear Spectacles. It's an overt form of recording people. Spectacles will be banned in many places and it'll fall out of favor since it's so fucking stupid.

That being said I said alot of shit was stupid and stupid idiots keep using and buying stupid stuff.

Let me know how that 10% pullback from double now works out when you buy le dip

No one's even mentioned that Snapchat pays a fuckton to Google to host their servers.

Their infrastructure isn't good enough to warrant a huge turn in profit.

He mentions it in the video.

Even with the millions a year, it looks like they are still pretty close to turning a profit. See this part of the vid:

youtu.be/W7jzMN9x778?t=393

1.) They are the market leader in their field, they have a moat in that snapchat is cool with the kids and other things will be seen as imitations. This is part of the reason Facebook poke failed.

2.) Snapchat has a lot of room to get more money out of their existing customers. The can give up some of the private info they are holding onto and allow advertisers to start targeting way more accurate and creepily. They started out as not wanting to be creepy, but you can see them moving in that direction with offering targeted ads based on what kind of content the user views.

3.) Look at the research: snapchat DAU are projected to keep growing. Even if they don't meet those expectations, look at their 158M daily users they have now. If just a measly 1%, ONE PERCENT of daily snapchat users adopt spectacles, that's $202 million in revenue right there (50% of their total revenue last year), and that's not factoring in growth. You look at adoption rates for other tech:

Apple iPhone users: 3% adoption rate for apple watch

Amazon prime users: 6% buy Amazon echo

Samsung users: 8% for Samsung VR

>daily user numbers come out at a 0-2% decline over last quarter

You're pulling these numbers out of your ass, with no justification, I can prove it as soon as the Q1 numbers are released.

IPOs are for suckers

>buttcoiner giving out stock advice

disregard all of this

1. The hard hit which Snapchat took as soon as Instagram stories dropped indicates otherwise.
techcrunch.com/2017/01/30/attack-of-the-clone/
This is just one clone too. If they've been struggling to handle one more company in their space, how are they going to handle every other major social media player ripping them off in the very near future (Facebook, Whatsapp etc?)

2. Again, as they get more aggressive with selling their customers private information and forcing ads down people's throats, they will drive more of their customers away from their app. Moving in that type of direction isn't a real solution to their problems.

3. Where is this research? I posted the data indicating their growth is slowing down (). Estimating that they will either remain flat in DAU or take a slight loss this next quarter is a logical extrapolation if you look at how their growth has declined over the past few quarters. Also, look at how severely the average number of unique viewers per snap has decreased since Stories came out (above link). Add of that to the fact that their former growth lead is suing them for allegedly lying about their growth data (which is bad as it is), and I don't see how anyone could be optimistic on Snaps growth prospects. With the spectacles, sure, they'll increase their revenue, but they'll also increase their spending. That's exactly what happened in 2016 when they multiplied their revenue by 6x but ended up losing an additional $187 million over 2015. Some flash in the pan, one off, wearable gimmick is not going to make Snapchat a $25 billion dollar company. Lets not forget that every single user of Snapchat is already carrying a more powerful camera (their phone) in their pocket. Spectacles are a failed meme like Google Glass, not a flagship product for a major company. If Snap wants to call itself a "camera company" now, my response is have a look at how the last major new camera company (GoPro) has fared since its IPO.

Social Media is very hard to make money from. Facebook only makes money because they know literally everything about you. It's a lot like music (Pandora, Spotify, SoundCloud). As an investor I look for value not for hope. If the price is right I'll jump on the train

snapchat is already worth alot. But facebook has pretty much euthanized this poor bastard.
Its never going to reach over 50

It's an app that lets you take silly pictures and is losing hundreds of millions of dollars: it's a horrible investment.

Facebook was at least somewhat profitable at IPO. Snapchat is going to be one of the last IPO's before this retarded bubble pops. Maybe even the one that makes it pop.

its going to the sun

After Whatsapp's rollout of its new status-story-feature, you can absolutely say, snapchat's userbase is going to shrink. snapchat isn't as valuable as people think. it's a feature not a product. other messengers can quickly add such features as self-destroying pictures and stories. On the whole it's a meme.