Just wanted to get a general vibe from the biz community in regards to the markets. You guys as a whole probably have a better feel for the markets than the general public.
The S&P 500 and the global markets are going strong after 2008.
The market only crashes on major UNPREDICTED events. There's no point in looking at trends, the catalysts could be sparked at any time. If a reasonable person could see it coming obviously it would be mitigated before it ever got bad.
Adrian Phillips
>the global markets are going strong after 2008
MSCI Emerging Markets and Europe are still below their highest point from 2007/8 ago, only USA did really well.
Parker Richardson
We're having a nice start to the year on the asx
Ethan Johnson
Australia is pretty much irrelevant when it comes to stock markets
Xavier Bailey
1) There are several reasons for bull markets to end but the "height" of the market and the "length" of the bull market are not among them. From a psychology perspective - there is too much apprehension and skepticism about this particular bull run - and as such means there is room to go higher. Phrases like "It's a new economy!" and "traditional valuation metrics don't matter!"
Markets don't crash on "unpredicted" events. They RESET after the rest of the herd prices in what early participants have figured out (plenty of traders, fund managers, and speculators made money OR avoided losses during the market crash(es))
I can elaborate on that further if you would like.
This is true - we need to see the rest of the world catch up to the US markets level of enthusiasm!
Juan Taylor
Unpredicted as in unpredicted by the general consensus obviously.
Jose Martinez
Put 100% in S&P Kneecap, Jockstrap and Protective Gear Industry ETF
Logan Butler
We're in the bubble of all bubbles
Justin Cox
yeah, word. What do you think of the market here in the short term (1-4 weeks)
Blake Sanchez
hmmm
Grayson Anderson
Absolutely this. As you cannot predict the crash, so you cannot predict the steady growth. Best option is to determine when a crash might become likely, and either buy a villa in Scandinavia or liquidate your entire asset base into CHF
Here's my advice: A crash is now far more likely than it was after the market stabilized in 2008. You draw your own conclusions Second advice: Cease investing in solitary stocks RIGHT NOW and migrate to a portfolio fully dominated of sector ETFs, Staples and Healthcare to be exact
David Collins
okay yeah man what your AUM?
Josiah Anderson
What happens next? Simple, the rally in bonds and stocks that has existed since the beginning of recorded history continues as they both go higher into perpetuity. Undoubtedly there will be corrections in the future, but that's temporary.
Jordan Young
Yup, ETFs are a great way to go. 80% of my equity investments are in sector and total market ETFs. Heavy in Financials and Healthcare for long term safety and a good amount in Energy for when Keystone starts and Trump guts the EPA.
About 30% of my non retirement portfolio is in P2P lending notes as well since they're less volatile than the stock market.
About 15% in BTC, ETH, Gold, and Gold ETF as further means to reduce exposure to equity market volatility.
YTD ROI is 4% on my non retirement portfolio so I'm a happy camper.
Out of morbid curiosity I sort of want to see a large market correction just so I can track how well my portfolio would fare during a crash. It's crazy diverse and I think I'd come out in the green. I think the total market could drop several hundred BPs when Trump BTFOS the H1B program. Way too many companies taking advantage.
Cameron Rodriguez
not my personal allocation, but a thought out portfolio definitely. Nice.
Cameron Wright
True economic recessions are fairly predictable since historically there are canary in a coal mine type indicators that are reliable. Employment statistics are one. Also many major recessions get kicked off by energy shortages/ oil shocks.
So right now there is no sign of a recession.
Stock market corrections and bear markets are not predictable and I suspect a correction in tech stocks, someday soon.
Stocks are going to stay strong for a while, since the bond market is such shit right now. There are fears of a bond market crash, even and so nobody has anywhere to put money besides stocks.
Jayden Jenkins
You have a great point. Pension funds, money managers and the like have legal mandates to allocate funds...Remember a lot of open-end funds have to have a certain% of assets invested.
Bond market so garbage - yields going up puts pressure on bond prices definitely. Stocks could still go sideways to higher though - that correlation doesn't necessarily have to hold.
Grayson Young
The way I look at it, the doom mongers are only half right
If markets flatlined for two years and dropped 5% in the third year, people would be bummed out but not freak out
That would be about a 20% correction in real terms
I don't see a great hunger for cash given where rates are
There's less places for capital to flee to than in 2008
Isaiah Martin
EU collapse and recession.
Oliver Evans
invest in bitcoin and Ethereum as a hedge. hyper inflation coming. then war.
Kayden Ross
Thanks. What's your allocation?
Ryder Young
Are financials a relativly safe investment considering a crisis? Looking at the last crisis I assumed they weren't..
Parker Gray
Buy options
Jeremiah Perez
I meant to say Consumer Staples, not Financials. Staples are a good long hold.
I am in financials, but not with safety in mind. I'm just betting on financials mooning when Trump kills the bank regulations.
Ayden Nelson
buy OK-cash
Logan Williams
You'll have your wish granted if Le Pen wins
Nathaniel Cox
Add in dividends. Needs total returns.
Michael Miller
>Heavy in Financials and Healthcare for long term safety and a good amount in Energy for when Keystone starts and Trump guts the EPA
retard alert
Easton Hill
Perhaps this can help , gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php. Looks like we are at 2008 levels for market valuations p/e adjusted to inflation. Just remember be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.
Adam Lopez
sorry folks there is gonna be a Trump related recession within the next few months.
Dominic Torres
a single indicator means shit. How do you know that fundamentals behind PE ratios are the same as they were in 2008?
>I think the total market could drop several hundred BPs when Trump BTFOS the H1B program.
I think Trump is after headlines rather than shaking things up.
If he can get some cheap, easy wins to assuage his supporters, that's enough. He'll announce a minor tweak to H1B which creates a lot of screeching in the media, it will look like a win, and business will continue as usual.
Isaac Richardson
Doesn't Benjamin Graham believe that record-high markets usually come with more risk, and with this, crashes are more likely to occur?
In the updated version, Graham and Buffett went over historical patterns where people have, time and time again, attempting to state that record-high markets will continue to trend to even higher record markets, but in actuality, these markets usually drifted back down due to a crash.
I'm sure this is just an overstated layman viewpoint, but I wanted people's opinion on it. Many people state that the gains made since the Trump presidency are just artificial and that the market shooting up to record highs make a crash more inevitable.
Sebastian Sanchez
>Doesn't Benjamin Graham believe that record-high markets usually come with more risk, and with this, crashes are more likely to occur? This is retarded. Markets are at or near all-time highs on 20% of ALL trading days. If you freak out every time the market climbs you'll be dumping your entire portfolio every five days. Sound like a winning strategy?
Zachary James
I'm not speaking of daily trends, but that of yearly trends. Aren't you just shooting yourself in the foot by attempting to uproot this viewpoint by giving me day-to-day trends? Of course markets fluctuate that much on a daily basis; why would a single investor base their information off of what happens day-to-day instead of looking at what happens on a quarterly and/or yearly basis instead?
So you're stating that market values have never risen passed that of their actual underlying value? That bull and bear markets don't exist? Why should the future returns of stocks always be the same as their past returns? When every investor comes to believe that stocks are guaranteed to make money in the long run, won't the market end up being wildly overpriced? And given this, how can future returns possibly be high?
In this case, it doesn't matter what the price a certain stock is, because the markets are at or near all-time highs on 20% of ALL trading days.
Eli Kelly
Markets are very volatile i can see old fags 401ks getting wrekt
Adam Wilson
It's time for you too stop posting
Nicholas Gonzalez
Bull market still strong. Said the same thing in 2016 january while everybody were waiting the armageddon of dow jones.
Every indicator is strong desu. Leveraged long positions sp500, nasdaq and dow still highly recommended. But over 10% dips with force.
Dow 40k is not out of question before a single over 20% correction moves.
Landon Gutierrez
Why should I listen to a fag who doesn't know the difference between "too" and "to"?
James Turner
The fact that people like you think this, is exactly what suggests the opposite could be true.
People can't see crashes coming. That's what makes them happen when they do, instead of earlier.
Jonathan Brooks
Look at the energy prices
Last time oil and natgas and coal and uranium rose high, the world economy tanked shortly after
Anthony Fisher
>The fact that people like you think this, is exactly what suggests the opposite could be true.
Wrong. The common "people" think it's crashing, have been for years now if you haven't noticed.
And it's called a gamblers fallacy, they just look at the oh it's ATH no way im going to buy that.
Sebastian Thompson
>I almost had to admit I was retarded. Good thing his phone autocorrect made a typo or else I would been in trouble
Cooper Murphy
>Wrong. The common "people" think it's crashing, have been for years now if you haven't noticed.
Objectively false. If the "common" people thought the market was crashing, it wouldn't be going up, it would be crashing. By definition, the common people do not think it is crashing.
Evan Baker
Care to back up why you think this view is retarded instead of green-texting and shitposting? I have a feeling you're not even capable of discussing the merits of what I commented.
Eli Mitchell
You just jumped straight to baseless assumptions and strawmen with him , just like you're doing with me.
You're obviously an econ 101 student.
Wyatt Hill
You're the one that began with the ad hominem attacks. The stock market is riskier whenever it's trading at record highs, because the chances of the underlying assets to be over-priced becomes higher. Do you refute this?
Tyler Wood
*takes a drag*
Econ 101... everything changed after that..
Asher Hill
>So you're stating that market values have never risen passed that of their actual underlying value? Underlying value is irrelevant. The only legitimate purpose for book value is liquidations.
An enterprise's true value is based on its future earning potential, which depends on both its unknown future prospects and the unknown direction of the economy and markets in which it operates. We can make guesses about those future values, but at no point will we ever know if we're above or below the real current value.
As such, trying to guess -- and making stock picks based on those guesses -- is a losing play.
Better to bet on the long-term direction of the markets (p, in case you were wondering) because that's not dependant on the fortunes and fates of any individual unknowable outcome. Betting on the market (i.e., buy and hold index funds) simply means you're betting that the economy will continue to prosper and that the zombie apocalypse won't happen. Pretty good bet, and pays decently too.
Kayden Smith
I'm seeing a lot of reverse iron eagle patterns in the energy sector plus some unprecedented bahamainian upticks in heavy industry.
This, combined with irregular hungarian accordion patterns in Baltic shipping indexes are causing concerns.
All in all, my prediction is that the market will continue to be uncertain.
Kayden Parker
I misspoke. See:
Brody Taylor
idk what tf to say...what comes up must go down.
Charles Fisher
i loled
Noah Parker
Overvalued to hell on a fundamental basis. we are in a huge equity bubble(and lord knows what else). Trade the trend though (keep buying with the overall trend but keep a close eye on it). The bubble burst happens slowly at first, then all at once.
Ryder Foster
Keystone pipeline isn't good for the US as we now compete with Canadian oil in our domestic market
Dominic Reed
>what comes up must go down Are you seriously suggesting that the financial markets are subject to the laws of physics? Do you honestly think the market trading level is a physical object that obeys the laws of gravity?
1 the bull market will continue. The US is entering a period of stimulus. The apprehension is good to slow down growth. If you think we've gone too far, open short positions or puts.
>You guys as a whole probably have a better feel for the markets than the general public. Pfffft ahahahahahahahaha. Yeah like /g/ does with technology or Veeky Forums and Veeky Forums with philosophy and education.
Lincoln Jones
Exactly. Never take advice from these people.
Henry Myers
>It'll start with Walmart. Walmart's earnings will be stellar on Tuesday.
Jordan Nguyen
Physics doesn't say that, there's a little thing called escape velocity
Aaron Wilson
>he thinks escape velocity isn't a law of physics >he thinks markets are subject to the laws of physics Dude, I even gave you a link. You're the definition of irredeemable moron.
Anthony Hall
> has no reading comprehension > doesn't understand I'm not the guy he was talking to, just a random physicist Dude...
Michael Wood
Shit.
Shit.
So close, then bails
Bull markets do not die of "events" - ever. Not one ever has. They die of only ever two things - the macro economy and the Fed. Those are the only two things that have ever killed a bull market. Ever. The macro economy is cyclical. We are at the top of the cycle. Stocks trail the cycle. Since it's been about 7 years since the last bottom, you've got about seven years till the next one.
Leo Gomez
Thanks, Dalio.
Parker Perry
I thought the cap before a correction would be 20.2k for the DJIA, but we're past that and almost at 21 now. I still think that the markets are overvalued, but investors are enthralled by all of Trump's stuff about cutting taxes and bringing in business. Good shit to hear if you're an investor. If he carries out all of this stuff he's saying, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some back-to-back thousand-point months for the Dow. I definitely see the NASDAQ breaking 6k soon, though probably after 21k for the Dow. 2.5k for the S&P not long after the NASDAQ. In a few years down the line, though, I definitely see a correction coming. It might even be a precursor to a recession, though definitely not a 2007/08 level one. Right now my best guess is that the market is overvalued by about 10-15%. If this kind of enthusiastic growth continues, then a correction could even lead to the markets hitting the magical 20% mark of a bear market.
Bentley Ward
>Underlying value is irrelevant. >Betting on the market simply means that you're betting the economy will continue to prosper
Jesus christ get off this board right fucking now, you're clearly too stupid to be posting.
Ryder Foster
That's literally not what Keystone is for you fucking nimrod.
Carson Stewart
>greatest bull market in history pffffftt
Nolan Green
Learn to consolidate your posts, you worthless attention-whoring ignorant NEET tripfag. And if you think I'm wrong, use word to explain why. This isn't /r9k/ you fucking retard.
Wyatt Peterson
>stock market is riskier when it's trading at record
Source: Your ass
>hurr 14,000 DOW is too risky guise
Ethan Myers
Keystone is for transporting oil from North Dakota and the Midwest to Gulf refineries.
Henry Fisher
I'm the guy that gets to fuck my wife in the ass at least two times a week.
While I can't predict 2017, please pay attention to valuations: wwwdot starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation
CAPE as the year closed in the US was 26.4 (even higher now). Please understand price/earnings of 26.4 implies < 4% earnings per share. Better yet..have a look at this which describes relationship between CAPE and subsequent 10 year returns: seekingalpha.com/article/3987114-predicting-stock-market-returns-using-shiller-cape-pb.
Unless there is something dramatic to happen in the next decade (such as cure to energy woes), don't expect returns better than 4% annual that time period. That said, I still recommend at least having 50% of your portfolio long stocks, but I'd roughly half that 50% in International/Emerging Markets where valuations are better.
Jackson Walker
bet you don't even have money to invest...do ya kiddo?
Owen Gutierrez
Bull run will continue for the next 2-3 years imo. Rising tide lifts all boats...you know which boats get lifted out of the water most violently by these rising tides? Small caps like GIGL OWCP NMUS and other OTC stocks. ALSO CONSUMER STAPLES. Also i think if there is a correction it will be slow...like 3 year slight downslope instead of a 15% haircut. But honestly 1/3 of my portfolio is in the OTC right now. Have to pay a bit more attention, but the possibility of getting in on the ground floor is enticing to trade. There are quite a few jems in the OTC this year. Old money follows new money..2017 year of the OTC
Dominic Gomez
You just seem very clueless about the markets overall, like most common people.
The current bull has nothing to do with small private investors buying it up lol
Christian Howard
>rally in bonds my sides
Aiden Price
Financials are especially risky compared to the "normal" equity market in that they are far too individual. Sure, you can spread out your losses through note diversification, but when the shit hits the fan, you're stuck with the loss, and it's permanent. There is nothing you can do about a defaulted note. An equity market has a far better chance of sucking up individual losses and recovering, and you'll get almost the same returns at the same time. I have investment into P2P and it is very profitable at the moment, but there's no way I'm going to risk their credit models vs a company that has been around for decades. My mutual funds have beat out returns of platform averages last year. How sad is that?
Dylan Murphy
I'm asking nicely, not trying to be confrontational, just a question... You think Snapchat's IPO is properly valued? How many of these new startups do people have to invest in before we realize that we're in the tech boom 2.0? It's like an entrepreneur meme to come up with some idea, go through your rounds of funding, and then do whatever after that. It's all happened very quickly, and early investors are going to soon realize that they've wasted every penny on an unsustainable service. This can only go so far, and it may be the next crash after they're realized how much money they've wasted in this nonsense.
Dominic Gomez
>2017 year of the OTC Agreed
especially, cannabis stocks. Check out SGBY and ERBB both in loading zones.
Jace Price
Snap is just Twitter 2.0: shit financials, massively overvalued, and it will be a shit stock when they go public.
Hudson Anderson
Valuing an enterprise like Snapchat involves at least three major variables: (1) amount future earnings, (2) time period until earnings materialize (discount rate), and (3) probability of success (contingency). You also have to value the metrics beyond the core business, like the value of the user base, the platform, the intellectual property, the server infrastructure, the branding, etc.
Anyone who thinks they're smarter than the market at predicting value with these kinds of factors is deluding themselves.
And besides, who said an IPO is supposed to be offered at fair value? Its offered at the price designed to make the underwriters the most amount of money. Two completely different things.
Case in point: here's another Pup of Wall Street who thinks he knows the future direction of a stock. Of course, if he had this ability, he'd be wealthy and in demand. But he's just a poser, NEET, poorfag.
Thanks "River" for proving that you're as dumb as your earlier posts suggested. Take note folks, and feel free to filter this jackhole.
Kevin Williams
Source: Warren Buffet's comments in the updated version of The Intelligent Investor. Chapter 3.
It's his exact words, dumbass.
Lucas Wilson
Source: The Intelligent Investor
John Brooks
You make an excellent point. I'm mostly getting into P2P as part of my passive income portfolio. Can you recommend any other passive income investments that don't fluctuate in concert with the broad equity market?
I'm looking at select preferred stock ETFs (established large caps), REIT ETFs, and floating rate (since we're due for inflation) bond funds.
Got any other ideas?
Jaxon Gonzalez
The market is going to crash and burn once Trump start fucking around with China in the summer
Ayden Davis
>Unless there is something dramatic to happen in the next decade (such as cure to energy woes), don't expect returns better than 4% annual that time period.
before or after inflation?
Samuel Scott
>1.The bull market will continue
Well if the cucks keep paying why not?
>3. Sideways after the bull run
I don't see how cucks getting sloppy seconds will help the market.
Mason Richardson
(>-_-)> Says the third grader.
Aaron Bailey
Nah, OWCP bucko
Colton Cox
Oh, finally someone else on the OWCP bandwagon. I'm retiring off that bitch.
Parker Richardson
i am in ERBB.. you are better off putting money in PURA right now, easy profits coming
Jason Ramirez
thank you for buying and paying towards my P/L tomorrow
Caleb Taylor
>paying towards my P/L tomorrow Nah, I've been in since .60 or so. I got stop loses in slowly down to 1.30 just in case. I'll be fine.
Chase Allen
ERBB has a O/S in the billions. It will never move significantly.
Jack Clark
The market is up due to possible changes to Doff-Frank and that the market doesn't believe the Fed will raise rates the 4 times it claims it will. I missed out on some gains last year and likely will under perform this year but if the market starts to believe in the trend that interest rates will rise, holy fuck we're going to see some serious shit. Let's hope we don't all forget Jan-Feb 2016. Given Trump's policies are pro-inflationary, the main metric the Fed claims to be lagging in terms of necessitating rate hikes and the lack of political pressure with Yellen's appointer (Obama) out of office, I view rate hikes as more than likely than last year.
Though I've been wrong for a whole year and mor than interest rates affect and economy, basic finance dictates that if the risk free rate increases, the prices of riskier assets will decrease. If not, lucky me, I will be able to buy up risk free 30 year bonds and live comfy as fuck.