Why is "hurr durr all jobs gonna get automated" becoming all the rage now...

Automation is the fashionable slippery slope fallacy of this generation. It was outsourcing 10 years ago which was a disaster.

I thought automation was supposed to make life easier for everyone and raise the standard of living?

Automation is still much more expensive than people assume it is.

I'd reckon it's still much cheaper to hire use cheap human labor for tasks such as cleaning than it is to actually design, construct and operate a machine to do it for you.

There's no point in even thinking about automation if there isn't sufficient financial incentive for said automation.

>I'd reckon it's still much cheaper to hire use cheap human labor for tasks such as cleaning than it is to actually design, construct and operate a machine to do it for you.
This. It's why they can pay women in sweatshops in Bangladesh to see together your cheap clothes instead of designing and operate machines to do it.

For higher value products, like automobile manufacture, there is much more of an incentive to do design and build machines to automate the work. But this process has been ongoing for a long time.

It's all bernietards that are completely detached from reality because their dream is basic income

If Moore's law continues, in 100 years we will have AI that can be specialized for any task a human can do.
The algorithms already exist. We just need more computing power.

If you spoke more than one language you'd knew this is bullshit. AI can't even translate texts very well.

They're not totally wrong, just their timeline.

They've made huge improvements on that in the last few years, actually. Check out Google's Japanese->English, which now actually produces intelligible sentences despite the two languages having almost nothing in common grammatically.
French->English is almost perfect; here's a random paragraph from French Wikipedia to prove it:
>She authored an autobiography, the Memoirs of an Arab Princess, published in Germany in 1886, then in the United Kingdom and other countries. This work is a testimony, rare at the time, on the royal court of Zanzibar and on this island society, far from exotic tales then fashionable. It shows an intimate knowledge of both the Muslim world of the coasts of the Indian Ocean and the European Western world in the midst of the industrial revolution, in a context in which the globalization of economic exchanges is intensifying. It is also a period during which several European nations deploy colonialist policies. This autobiography, as well as its posthumous publications, also illuminate the path of a woman who is both rebellious and determined, advocating an effort of mutual understanding and questioning the prejudices between cultures, open to the Western world without denying her identity , Education and values.

The French translation is better because we have many more bilingual English/French documents to train the AI on, so I should mention that some tasks require more data as well as more computing power.

The system is flawed, you go to college earn a degree, work hard and when applying for jobs you need experience as if you started 10 years ago. I know a lot of people who had a hard time finding jobs after college is just a profit sucking system.

The main reason capitalism is failing is because many extremely profitable companies are looking to reduce costs instead of expanding their businesses.

>If Moore's law continues
Moore's law effectively ended in 2015. Any gains are going to be marginal.

>However, in April 2016, Intel CEO Brian Krzanich stated that "In my 34 years in the semiconductor industry, I have witnessed the advertised death of Moore’s Law no less than four times. As we progress from 14 nanometer technology to 10 nanometer and plan for 7 nanometer and 5 nanometer and even beyond, our plans are proof that Moore’s Law is alive and well".[25] In January 2017, he declared that "I've heard the death of Moore's law more times than anything else in my career," Krzanich said. "And I'm here today to really show you and tell you that Moore's Law is alive and well and flourishing."[26]

Nah, its fine.
Meanwhile in Scandinavia:
-Apprenticeship is a protected position, to access trades, also involving contracts where state is guarantee provider IF all clauses are met(enough work hours, enough experience, all the tools, etc)
-2 years of field experience to acquire the trade paper, or 4 years of field experience without schooling in subject. Which means the Welder/Cook/Chemist already has industry experience, lots of it
-No free apprenticeship or internships allowed

Its one of those things we didn't fuck up.
I can't even image the stupidity to allow unpaid internships. It just sours any form of industry.

>while it’s possible to shrink those sizes further, down to about seven nanometers, the industry estimates that just developing a prototype of a 7nm chip would cost $100 million, and there are only three companies on the planet capable of even attempting it: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Samsung, and Moore’s Intel

And Intel's CEO says they're doing it.
What's your point?

>At 7nm, we’re done. There just isn’t more juice to squeeze from smaller spaces.

This. When automation is in full effect, you'll just have to buy or build a couple of robots and you'll have your own factory. Everyone will be an entrepeneur.

Depends what the cost of labour is wherever you're manufacturing. I work for an NZ manufacturer (fixed asset accounting, so I see exactly what costs go into automation projects), and the robots pay for themselves pretty quickly (usually within 2 years). It's expensive, but well worth it if you have the funds to invest up front.

>Moore’s Law isn’t dead. But it isn’t looking good, either. And if it’s going to be resuscitated, engineers and product designers have to adjust where they look for new breakthroughs.
From the same article you're quoting.

Computing power isn't going to hit some kind of brick wall in 2020.

did you all know that there are more blacksmiths today than there were 200 years ago? technology creates jobs, it doesn't destroy them.

the RATE of change, as well as its AMPLITUDE, however, IS increasing, which is punishing pleb bernie voters that can't adapt fast enough. moreover at some point the rich will invent terminators that will take away the last point of political power for the unwashed masses, violence, leading to their hopeful genocide

overall though humanity's future is bright, it's just the winners will win more and the losers will be completely wiped out

>Computing power isn't going to hit some kind of brick wall in 2020.
It's not going to increase at breakneck speeds either.

It is just poor understanding of the limitations of AI and sensationalist "news" outlets reporting about trivial shit like Alpha Go.

>Do people not realize that this has been occurring continuously since the dawn of the industrial revolution?
Yes it has been.
>Thinkers like David Ricardo and Karl Marx had the same thoughts.
And they were right.

im torn on this honestly. While wagecucking is not the answer, I'm no socialist either. (in the strongest use of the term ). There needs to be struggle in life. Without struggle, there is no incentive to improve or better one's self. Without natural selection, the human species will deteriorate. There has to be some middle ground between miserable wagecucking and sloth inducing utopianism.

*tips fedora*

Faggots pushing "Muh Socialism"

>did you all know that there are more blacksmiths today than there were 200 years ago?
got a source on that?

Other than decorative/custom-made furniture, gates, sculptures, etc. what's the use for a modern-day blacksmith?

Um... 3d computer chips. Quantum computers. DNA computers. It's almost like you know nothing about technology.

It's basically the speed and scale they are talking about. Factories displaced 1000 workers for every hundred they hired. Tech+agorythyms replace millions with 1 enginger.
In thery this would free up capital for capitalists to start new busnisses and hire other people, for a net loss of zero jobs over time. (Thou it will hurt a lot on the micro lol)
The problem with this is
a. They are already sitting on too much capital and not investing it in anything besides bidding up existing wallstreet firms, not new jobs.
B. Globalism.
Even if they have more capital, it will be spread out so thin toward the ~4billion on the planet that are dirt farmers, the areas for growth in 1st world countries (I.e. The people that enabled the capital) will not be offset by automation loss.
.
Different way to look at is is Apple employees 66,000 people and makes billions more than GM that employees millions. I don't have the real numbers at the moment, but if you look at them you realize we are past the point of wealth growth =Jon growth

There aren't
He might have meant there are more blacksmiths today than 20 years ago.

There might be no danger of this, but people seem to be vastly underestimating the rapid changes this last few decades.

My grandmother was born when TVs came into peoples homes and planes win a war, and the birth of a nuclear weapon. In only the last twenty years we have gone from cassette tapes, box TVs and VHS tapes to digital everything, 52" incredible definition screens you can lift with one hand, and handled computers that are thinner than a notebook and would have been considered a dream even in my childhood. I mean, fuck, we've gone from the old clunky Gameboy to shit like the 3DS. And this is just consumer entertainment tech.

And all this is only speeding up. Yes, automation isn't worth it right now, due to cost and practicality, but the reason it's coming up practically every day across various platforms is everyone can see it (potentially) coming.

If the everyman can see the transition from cassette tape to Bluray, or Windows 98 boxputers to a iPad 2 in around twenty years, the question is what will be possible in another twenty? I won't even be fifty.

Technically, outsourcing is a disaster. It's mathematically a deadweight economic loss.

That is a seriously impressive translation.