Who /political betting/ here? I've made a lot of money betting on political elections and referendums...

Who /political betting/ here? I've made a lot of money betting on political elections and referendums. I increased my principle by 1200% over the course of the US primaries, federal election, and brexit.

My interest now is the dutch election on Wednesday. The polls have the VVD and PVV (Geert Wilders) neck and neck, and i would like to get some enlightened Veeky Forums discussion on who the victor will be.

BTW, this isn't meant for political discussion. This is purely to profit.

no value

how much money do you need to get something out of that?

I have for some years now with mixed results. My first bet was on national elections in my home euro country, which I won. That encouraged me to really get into it. Bet on Obama on Intrade when someone was shilling Romney. Bet on Trump and actually won.

To answer your inquiry, Im betting on VVD. I know it seems silly, what with brexit and Trump. As far as my limited research goes, PVV's election result was worse than what opinion polling predicted in the last elections. There is lot of undecided citizens, but I still think VVD is gonna win this one.

have you read the /pol/der threads?

>As far as my limited research goes, PVV's election result was worse than what opinion polling predicted in the last elections.

I think your heavily mistaken if your predicting this election based off of previous ones. 2017 is fundamentally different than previous years, so there is zero reason that it should correlate.

For instance. As i understand it, PVV is quite popular, but many of its voters defect to VVD for strategic reasons because they believe PVV has no chance. This is not the case this time around as 1. Brexit proved that the anti anti-EU PVV is viable, and PVV has been heading the polls for months now, showing PVV supporters that there is no need to defect to VVD if they want to ensure a right leaning government.

This isn't to say that i think PVV is going to win. I am unsure, but i am just saying that your reasoning based on past elections is flawed.

Odds right now are around 1.6 or so, and the election is on Wednesday, so you can increase your principle by 60% in just a day

>implying /pol/ would be objective about this

Im also quite certain that PVV will not win.. NL is far more liberal compared to other countries (Trump and Brexit)

The Turkish situation is either gonna raise an anti Turkish sentiment and support Geert, or make people dislike geert and decreases chances of him winning.

>This is not the case this time around as 1. Brexit proved that the anti anti-EU PVV is viable

But there's also the chance of a Brexit backlash. People realizing that "oh shit" their little protest movement may actually change something. By far not everyone sympathizing with PVV wants to leave the EU (and by necessity the Euro, which also makes NL different from UK). Brexit showed that it's not all fun and games - shit got real which may cause voters to hesitate and reconsider.

NL has almost zero natural resources, it's a classic import/export and transit country. They need the EU more than the UK does. And we still don't know just exactly how hard or how little the UK will get shafted during exit negotiations. I don't think many voters appreciate this uncertainty.

Then there's the whole pointless Turkey episode currently unfolding. Basically the powers that be do their damndest to make them seem tough on "the foreign" (it's pretty cleat that Turkey is just a symbol for islamic foreigners). So if voters are still undecided they really have less reason to go for the right-wing populist, since the last few days the fucking governent has been right-wing populist as fuck.

Not to invalidate your points, but just to show you can easily make a case in the opposite direction as well.

>for strategic reasons because they believe PVV has no chance
This is still a concern, perhaps more than ever since unlike with previous election literally every other party has already publicly promised they would never form a coalition with Wilders. He's completely black-balled. There is zero chance of him participating in the next government.

made money on trump but bought at 3/1 sadly

I appreciate the input. These things are difficult to predict and i am australian so don't have all the info.

Who do you think will get the most seats in the election?

Also
>NL has almost zero natural resources, it's a classic import/export and transit country. They need the EU more than the UK does.
They technically should not have a need for the EU, just as Singapore, Japan, South Korea etc. do not need an institution such as the EU. It would be painful in the short term to leave yes, and the mere existence of the EU makes it difficult to survive without being apart of it, but if the EU were to be fully dissolved, it would be better in the long run.

If countries Central Banks' had full control of their monetary policy and were able to float their currencies at a rate appropriate for their national economy, there would not be so many crisis's. Honestly the Euro is a terrible idea, Europe is a terrible idea. There should be a free economic trade zone yes, but the integration stops there.

The old problem of changing currencies as you cross the border is practically solved these days with digital currency anyway.

>buy gold before brexit at around £820
>currently at £984
>tfw I sunk 5k of my savings into gold before brexit happend

>Who do you think will get the most seats in the election?
Don't know, don't care. Sorry. I'm just an outside observer as well.

>They technically should not have a need for the EU
Right. Should have worded it "they profit from the EU more than UK". Rotterdam is the biggest port in Europe - how many ships would rather dock directly at an EU port instead of going through an additional customs if NL leaves? The Dutch are still very much traders and freighters. Open borders benefit them more than other countries. Their mindset is less isolationist than the island-folks (UK).

>Honestly the Euro is a terrible idea
The Euro is a brilliant idea, it just included countries which weren't ready by a long-shot. The Eurozone is too big. But idea is still great, they should have just limited it to countries of similar economic maturity and stability instead of (for purely political reasons) including everyone and their mother. In its current extension it is actively harmful, I agree.

I want to know if Le Pen has any chance of winning the French election. She's paying a cheeky 3.00 @ sportsbet. Thoughts?

I don't think Le Pen has a chance in hell of actually becoming president. Given that Fillon is tanking hard she has a very high chance of getting into the run-off, maybe even coming first during the first ballot, but once it's one on one every other political party will support literally whoever candidate is her opponent. It's sad, because Fance's next president will not be elected because of his policies, but just to prevent another even more unlikable candidate, but that's the political process for you.

1st round yes.

2nd round? At that point your just gambling. All conventional wisdom points to no. I would take the dutch election as a trial run for how sentiment is in Europe

>I don't think Le Pen has a chance in hell of actually becoming president.

I would say she has a low to very low chance, but I would not say no " chance in hell". Its better than you might think.

That's exactly the official opinion I've been reading; sounds sad but true. She could still pull off a Trumpening though, and shock everyone?

getting redpilled on brexit and trump made me so much money
Than you /pol/

True. The other candiate could always be assassinated, perhaps by an islamist. Or maybe outed as a pedophile. There are odd things that could play into her hands. It's not impossible for her to win. And maybe her party secretly went from 20% to 50% due to all those terror attacks and none of the polls reflect it. Possible, but unlikely.

Then there's also her own scandal being investigated by the police which may drive undecided and moderate voters even further from her.

>She could still pull off a Trumpening though, and shock everyone?
She has the financial and political backing of Putin, so yeah, there's a bit of a connection.

>She has the financial and political backing of Putin, so yeah, there's a bit of a connection.
That seems to be pseudo /pol/ territory tbqh.

Google "front national russian loans". The supposedly French national party depends on millions in loans from Russian banks with Kremlin ties. Doesn't seem very national to me...
The political ties are harder to prove, but Russian outlets are consistently reporting rather favorable about Le Pen, compared to other French leaders.

Be sceptical, it's a good thing! To me it lines up perfectly. Putin wants to influence Western elections, destabilize his enemies and increase pro-russian sentiment. Supporting popular opposition leaders seems like a great way of doing that. Soft power, baby!

>PVV is quite popular, but many of its voters defect to VVD for strategic reasons
First, PVV is already established. Their representatives are already sitting in the parliament. Is there really a reason for strategic voting if this is the case?
Second, the ones who are (for whatever reason) "defecting" from PVV, arent defecting, they are just undecided. And why would their decide between PVV and VVD? a) there isnt much overlap between these two parties, on the contrary and b) there are many parties to choose from.
To sum it up, voters who are considering voting for PVV but dont feel strongly about it may ultimately decide for other parties but its unlikely many of them will choose to vote VVD.

>NL is far more liberal compared to other countries
Actually I dont think it has much to do with being liberal. Perhaps an argument can be made that Dutch citizens are more informed and less prone to populism than western average.
Its just that people are tired of the old establishment. What has been happening for some years now is that when someone says "I lost my job and I think immigrants and EU is to blame" the political elites dismiss him with "you are stupid and dont know wtf are you talking about". Now that guy realizes that the only ones listening to him are the fearmongers. And here we are, Wiilders has 14%.
Look at the upcoming French elections. Macron has the same support as Le Pen. Yet, he is strongly pro-EU. Why is that? Well, his response to the guy is "I hear you and I agree the system is broken. Lets do something about it."

These are my two cents.

So, what you are saying is... absolutely nothing of value.

>not buying dollars instead

Ultimately winning? Not a chance. She is too polarizing.

betting VVD as most seats @2.4 and Mark Rutte as PM is in my opinion the best bet

How much money do you have on this? The best way to possible tell who will really win would be talking to the dutch and going on dutch social websites.

As a Dutch person I can safely say there is no telling who will win.
The Turkey affair is working in both their favour.

But the VVD might win due to Thierry Baudet taking some seats from Wilders.

Wilders has been leading the polls for 2 years.
But he hasn't campaigned very well before the elections, allowing the prime minister to catch up.
Additionally, the media works in the prime ministers favour as they intentionally avoid talking about refugees and give the prime minister lots of air time.
So now they are about equal in the polls.

Then the Turkey affair happened. 86% of the Dutch population supports the decision of the Prime Minister.
And many PVV supporters who normally wouldn't vote at all have said they are now dedicated to vote.

At the same time small new party, that doesn't get much media attention, seem to be doing extremely well on Facebook and Twitter. And he's in the same niche as Wilders. So they might be the surprise of this election.

Just because Wilders is right-wing on issues such as immigration, doesn't mean he's a conservative bible-thumper on other issues. He's actually quite liberal on most issues.