Martingale strategy

Can you profi from it long term?
For those who don't know what it is, you do an even money bet eg. Red or black. If you lose, you double your bet. When you win you would have covered all your losses and gained one unit

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Do you even google something before you post?

Martingale will never work long term.

There's an entire analysis of it online in various places. Basically, it's like a lot of things in statistics, it behaves very differently than you think it would.

Yes I do faggot. I wanted people's opinions/stories.

Explain why it can't work...

>it behaves very differently than you think it would
How so?

Expected value of a the strategy is net zero. You're as likely to bust as you are to double your money.

>Explain why it can't work

It requires infinite money, and worse yet, a counter party willing to take on infinite risk.

>herp derp, why cant this work?

>For those who don't know what it is, you do an even money bet eg. Red or black
Red/black is not even. Roulette wheels have 1 or 2 green zeros that ensure the house edge.

This, just google it. Martingale has been completely and utterly debunked for literally hundreds of years. The idea is old and has cost many a lives and fortunes.

>Explain why it can't work
Mathematics. Roulette has a negative expected value. It's inherent to the game due to the zeros. You cannot overcome this by any betting strategy.

Here's the better question, would the martingale strategy work for trading stocks, and if so, how well?

Lol infinite money. Ok, let's say I bring $10,000 to the table and I'm betting $1. What'a the odds I lose an almost 50/50 bet every time and double until I bust?

It's not 50/50. That's the point. The house always has at least a 2% advantage. So even if you make short term gains, in the long run you will be down.

100%

It's basically the same as crossing the highway blindfolded. Yeah you probably survive most of the time. But you are crossing it again and again.

And the car that kills you is the same as the "streak" that will bankrupt you. Because at some point you will lose 400k then 800k then 1600k then 3200k then 6400k. Do you have 12 million to bet on a 50% chance?

>Explain why it can't work...
Casino games have a maximum bet size limit.

Are you blind Cunt. I know it's not 50/50. I said almost 50/50

>to the table

Sigh, children...

When you grow up and actually go to a casino you'll notice the tables don't have unlimited betting ability, they have min/maxes, usually fairly tight ones. Usually 20x to 50x is the bet spread.

That means that a table that allows you to bet $1 will also only allow you to bet $20 at most. If you lose on your $16 bet, what do you do in your brilliant strategy? Keep playing $16 bets? Reset to $1 with sunken losses?

Only need 5 losses in a row for this to happen, in a 50/50, you'll see this streak often.

Lets say you have 8192$ to make things simple.

Winning on 1st bet ($1 is .5 chance). Winning on 2nd bet $2 is .25 chance. Etc. .. to lose you need to reach a bet of $4096. As $4096 + $2048 + $1024 + ... + $2 + $1 is $8192. The chance of getting to and losing the $4096 bet (busting) is 1/2^13. Which is 1/8192. So your expected value of 8192 sequences of bets is +$1 * 8192 + -$8192 * 1. E(V) = 0.

Martingale does not work, it has been debunked. the only way to make it work is to have unlimited capital, and an unlimited bet limit. ever seen ten reds in a row at roulette? i have, that kills any martingale

Ok, silly bitch. Go spend money on a losing proposition.

LOL. For starters I've been to a casino many times, I'm 25.

So you're saying tables cap the bet at 20x the minimum? So $1 table the max bet is $20? Hahah you're the one who's never been to a casino you fucking basement neck beard.

The minimum bet on the cheapest tables at my casino are $5. And you're saying the max bet would be 20x that, so $100?? LOL.

Can guarantee you the max bet is more like $20,000 for that table

Oops should be +$1 * 8191 + $8191 * 1 = 0.

If that wasn't clear enough. Over a 8192 sequences you would have a 50% chance to bust and 50% chance to double your money.

What I mean is what everyone on this thread is telling you. Your intuition tells you "omg this is a great strategy" but the actual numbers show what an enormous risk it is.

Word of advice: you don't have a head for numbers, so don't become a gambler.

>And you're saying the max bet would be 20x that, so $100?? LOL

Probably, maybe $250, or $500 for a very specific profitable table types, but you'll find them closely watched.

>Can guarantee you the max bet is more like $20,000 for that table

With $5 min bets, what casino?

Lol, limit is way higher.

Crown casino Melbourne, Australia. We have $1 roulette tables, min outside bet (red/black) is $5

Except the one that's betting red

That would be highly usual to see in the US. Even money bet like red/black on a wheel would be 100x min bet at best, depending what the activity is like on the floor, I've never seen it at 4,000x min bet.

Interesting, that's what you get for international differences. You won't find 4,000x min bet limits in the US regularly on even money bets.

You are clearly an idiot so just go lose your money like every other fool who has thought of this and can't understand why it doesn't work

26 posts discussing martingale in 2017.

Veeky Forums aren't gamblers

Oh my god why are you so butthurt over this. Just for the record, I don't even gamble you stupid fuck. I was just hoping to get people's opinions and some stories but looks like I've just got a bunch of angry faggots like you

>The minimum bet on the cheapest tables at my casino are $5.
>Can guarantee you the max bet is more like $20,000 for that table

Alright, $5 bet and $20,000 table limit it is! Let's run a Martingale (picture related).

You have to win within 10 bets. The 11th bet breaks the table limit. Go and sit at a roulette table and watch the wheel for a few hours. See what kinds of streaks turn up.

But here's the kicker. On the 10th bet you are $2,555 down. Your betting decision is this: Do you want to risk another $2,560 which have to come out of your own pockets for a total exposure of $5,120 on a single ~48% bet? If you win you get $5.

Take a step back and appreciate the insanity of this. You are seriously contemplating putting in two thousand five hundred US Dollars on a less than fifty-fifty chance to win five bucks.

Martingale is a system with capped profits (doubling your initial bet and never more) but unlimited potential for loss that holds you hostage by guilting you into higher and higher bets. It's insane!

On your table you could win a literal thousand times, each time raking in a massive 5 bucks for a total of $5,000 in profits. Then the 10-streak happens and you end with a loss of $120. Martingale only changes the distribution of the amounts, not the outcome. You will will win very often for very tiny amounts. But if you ever lose (and since it's completely random this might happen on your third spin) you will lose more than you've ever won, because the over-all expected value is negative.

I have a revolver with 1,350 chambers (around (18/37)^10), one is loaded. Each time you consecutively pull the trigger against your head I give you five bucks. Would you play and for how long?

Damn, had $10k table limit in my head. Whatever, just add one spin, doesn't change the argument.

forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2364554

4th post there seems to talk different numbers, in the 20x to 100x spread range.

What's the use in discussing table limits? Martingale fails because of other limits. One guy said it already. You require an infinite line of credit.

I've fucked myself martingaling a couple times. Would not recommend.

>be me
>get 10k as a present one day and decide i have enough bank to double down at the local casino.
>start with 5€ bets
>so far so good, made 200€
>7 black in a row, start getting itchy.
>10 black in a row
>mfw
>0
>

this is the kind of posts I still visit /biz for

I tried. Always go up up up then one time I'll loose 10 - 12 times in a row and boom.. Wallets empty.

I wrote a little program once that simulated the martingale strategy for roulette (bad game btw). Even Bill Gates (80 Billion) would lose all his money 93% of the time IIRC, where each time is defined as doubling the bet until you come out with a profit.

There's a couple reasons it's not intuitive. The probability that you can get a streak of losses is higher than you think; people don't tend to realize that previous outcomes do not affect future outcomes (gambler's fallacy). Secondly, the nature of exponential numbers is not intuitive. This is the progression of Martingale bets for 10 rounds at a minimum starting bet of $25, as is the case for most casinos:

25, 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400, 12800

On the 16th losing bet, you'll be up to $1.6 million. Martingale only works if you have literally infinite money.

Oh and most casinos have maximum bets to prevent the hypothetical drunk Carlos Slim from walking in and cleaning them out with Martingale.

Martingale works if both you and the House have unlimited funds
= never

What everyone in the thread is saying is EXACTLY the way you would think it would work i.e. not well. That's why I asked you to clarify what you meant about expectations.

why try to beat the casino? the games were designed to have significantly more probability of winning for themselves. long-term its mathematically impossible for the player to win, as long as the casino doesnt go broke in its initial stages

there are much better volatile "gambles" with probabilities on YOUR side if you do it right. real estate, stocks, options, some lucrative types of businesses

What puzzles me there are hundreds of bots playing Martingale at Bitcoin casinos all the time,
when it's been debunked like 500 years ago

The strategy is great if you are using other people's money and can take part of the profits.

Hedge funds use a variation of Martingale to fake above market returns. A fund can say it earns 11% annualized compared to 8% the market has earned in the past 5 years, but a bad streak will bankrupt them. Thankfully corporate structure protects fund managers' personal assets.

Selection bias from a modified Martingale approach is the basis of creating a successful hedge fund (doomed for failure) if you don't have an edge (which the majority of funds don't).

There was this one time it was profitable for me to play roulette. I needed to double my money to buy something that I could triple up on. But no one could lend me the money so I just went to the casino and doubled up then left and tripled up the money.

Interesting; thanks for sharing.

Somewhat related. Whenever my friends and I go downtown we stop at the casino and play one spin on the outside. Normally one of us wins. I play 2/3 of the bottom 3. A friend plays red or black. Then we drink and eat for free that night. I feel like this is the best case scenario. No long term bullshit. No 'beating the house'.

Why are you only doubling the winnings though? A roulette table pays out at least 1 to 35 if you hit your number.
Martiangale is still retarded of course.

The whole point of Martingale is that you double down on a loss until you hit a win. This assumes you only bet on evens/odds or red/black to have close to 50/50 odds, so the doubling down corresponds with your payout. The (misguided) thinking goes that it is very unlikely that coinflips come up tails a lot of times in a row, so if you bet on heads and always double down you would "inevitably" win, because even the longest tails streak would have to end sometime (which is generally true, but not realistic).

You could theoretically do that by betting on a number for a 36x payout, because in theory any number is bound to come up somewhen in the future given enough spins, but you'd have to adjust your bet scaling. But even the Martingale suckers have this sinking feeling that it may take a *long* time until a specific number comes up.

The selling point of Martingale is that it supposedly is a "fool-proof" secret system to break the bank at Casinos. So they like to keep it simple with the near coin-flip odds for double payouts and the doubling down on bets. Only this is simple enough for fools to "understand".

I remember getting from 0.1 to 0.8 Bitcoin gambling dice back when it was around $250 using martingale to later lose it all with around 7 lost bets in a row.
Lesson learned is to never go in a casino, I'm to retarded to understand the gambler's fallacy

People that actually believe this shit works are the absolute bottom of the genetic pool. Casino owners fuck their hot wives smiling knowing that poor pieces of shit will try strategies like these.

There is NO long term winning betting strategy for all casino games UNLESS:

1) It's blackjack and the casino lets you count cards.
2) You are playing poker and the rake isn't retard high.
3) There is an exploitable defect in a casino game that is offered.
4) There is a casino game offered with a negative house edge (usually in the .XX area)

So there, now stop being a degenerate piece of shit and get your shit together.

I did a little calculation. It's so funny. If there wasn't a 2.70% house edge you could have a %7 chance to quadruple your money with this strategy every month. That eeny meeny 0 on the table however, reduces your chances of quadrupling your money every month to -21%. Below zero.

I don't ever gamble. I think it's retard tax. Any golden egg strategy that actually works would be "patched" by the casinos way before the average guy ever hears of it, I think.

If you martingale a casino conservatively enough it's like borrowing money that you might not have to pay back. There's still that 1 in 1,000 chance you lose everything the first time you sit down though.

The trick is to revert to 1 when on a losing streak betting that you get another loss in a row and re-doubling up. It's the hype train of the martingale.

...

>you would have a 7% chance to blah blah, if no zeros on wheel.
We have already been over why it wouldn't work, look here
By the 13th spin you'd be hitting over 20k a bet.... to win 5 dollars, and no table has limits that high.
And you can't calculate odds on winning prectages because it's fucking random.

/thread

>posting on /biz thinking he can make money on memes that stupid gamblers believe

Hey OP, did you know that if red has come up 5 times in a row on a roulette wheel, then the next time it is 5 times more likely to be black

I made MILLIONS using this little known fact, most normies don't realise even know about it ;)

>Over a 8192 sequences you would have a 50% chance to bust and 50% chance to double your money

So, exactly the same as over 1 sequence. Or over 8192 sequences always betting the same amount.

Nah, that strategy is good to gain a little bit of money, but you are not gonna get rich with it.

>that strategy is good to gain a little bit of money,
No

Sometimes online casinos have +ev welcome offers

I'm afraid your math isn't quite right. You didn't take into account that you can't keep betting if you go bust. The chance of playing 8192 times without busting is (8191/8192)^8192= about 36.79%. Which means your chance of going bust is 63.21%.
So your E(V) across the whole 8192 sequences is 8192(.3679) + -8192(.6321) = 3014 - 5178 = $-2164.
So not only does Martingale not ensure a profit, it can actually turn a fair bet sour.

Yes, my fellow user! It works! You have found out how to beat the casinos! Wow!

What about using martingale in the stock market, it goes down to a support line, double up and ride it up?

>Can you profit from it long term?
No.
Martingale players eat like chickens but take a dump like an elephant.
Equity curve related.
It's like shorting volatility by selling far out of the money options. You will make money for some time but when it hits you, it will hit you hard.

Be helpful if you actually stated factual information, your response only shows lack of knowledge, not any wisdom.

All that is needed is slight increases in the stock market, which may happen because of productivity increases or even inflation. Stock prices and casinos are not the same. In a casino, the odds are against you. Even if you play a fair game, the maringale system won't work. However, in the stock market, share prices can only go down to zero. There is a limit to your losses. But share prices can go up to infinite. There is no upper limit. Even if share prices are a random walk, because of the existence of a lower limit and the absence of an upper limit, share prices must over the long run go up enough for the martingale system to work. With the leverage we put on, you can magnify these small increases over time and one must do well.

Make your own computer program, any programming language can do it.

Test the theory, if you lose, double ur money, but, u will realise that the house will win because of the 0, and it will require infinite money in order to play until you win.

e.g. Say you have 350 dollars
bet 50, 1/2 chance to win
lose
Bet 100, 1/2 chance to win
lose
Bet 200, 1/2 chance to win

1/8 chance of losing 350
7/8 chance of wining 50

but, now, with the house edge the odds are slightly in the house's favour.