I have a guaranteed method of getting 20-23% annual returns on something, as good as a savings account

I have a guaranteed method of getting 20-23% annual returns on something, as good as a savings account.

I'm not gonna say what it is, but my question is how much of my investment portfolio should I allocate to this? Am I likely to see better returns elsewhere?

Any advice on what percentage to allocate to this? I want a pretty aggressive portfolio.

>guaranteed 20%
If you mean the odds are actually 100%, then you should allocate the entirety of your portfolio. That beats index funds by over 100%.
If you mean it's risky but you're confident in it, it depends on how risky it is and how risk-tolerant you are.

Do you see anything else "guaranteeing" a 20% return on investment?

If you do, then split your investment. But realistically, nothing guarantees that high of a return, so if you're absolutely 100% confident in that guarantee and the legality of your venture, then you should be investing 100% of your money in that venture because no alternative guarantees a return even close.

However, to play Devil's advocate here, what makes you think that you're the one to unlock the secret to guaranteed 20% gains on your investment? How does that realistically happen?

I consider it a 98-99% chance of getting the full return and 1-2% chance of losing some percentage up to 5-10% in the event of some crazy circumstance but a 0% chance of losing the whole thing.

My question here is: What are the expected returns for "stocks", "bonds", etc. and what percentage would you recommend allocating into them? Because this investment might require me to act kind of quickly.

I consider myself risk-tolerant, at least enough that I've gambled in crypto a lot before, so I think I can handle risk. Note this is not at all crypto-related though in any way.

My hesitation was because I was thinking I could possibly try more risky investments, like the kind talked about on this board, to get an even higher return. Should I be settling for 20-23% a year when I might be able to make that much in a day or week trying to trade crypto or on the stock market?

I am assured in the legality of this venture but I think the reason less people invest in it is because it requires you to not touch your money for a while. It's not a CD, but lacks liquidity similarly to a CD for a minimum of 12 months and I could do more if I like it.
It is true I will not need this money though but I am hesitant and that is why I have come here to ask.

What allocation of portfolio would you recommend allocating to what level of risk and potential returns? Keeping in mind I want an aggressive portfolio as I am young.

If it's literally guaranteed, you should not only be allocating 100% of your portfolio, you should be borrowing other peoples money. Take out as large a bank loan as they will lend you.

The fact you're asking this means you're either lying or retarded, probably both.

You can get almost arbitrarily large loans at 8 to 9% right now, there's literally no number that represents how much you should put into a guaranteed 20+% return right now.

Well.....why?

What if I could get a much bigger growth in something riskier, like the stock market or bitcoin or something? Shouldn't I invest at least some of my money in those opportunities? Cause 20% in a year doesn't seem like a whole lot for a trader, despite the risk.

So that's my question.

> I want an aggressive portfolio as I am young

So you want something more aggressive than 20% yearly returns?

What you want is to become a venture capitalist. But until you can toss around a few hundred thousand, you might need to stick to what you have.

I can give you a few portfolio breakdowns, and projections, but I would need a hint at what you currently have. Pharmaceuticals, futures, options?

You've found a risk-free financial product but you don't know what the rate of return on a bond is

END YOUR LIFE YOU FANTASYLAND FUCKNUGGET

X stock or Y crypto went up over 20% today and I had a little money in it. Not a lot but a really small amount. So if I'd put that money in this guaranteed return thing instead of that crypto/stock, I would not have gained as much money. Now of course there's risk so I'm not gonna put a lot of money on that by any means, but some at least might be a good idea.

So if I put in a 100%, I think I'm missing out a little bit on riskier endeavors.

The reason this good investment is so high is because it lacks all liquidity. I cannot or should not touch my money for a while. That's why.

Right now I'm just in cash and savings. My money is sitting in a savings account with like 1% APY and I've taken like 5% of it to mess around with in stocks and crypto for fun but the rest is basically in cash and I'm looking to invest it.

Ironically, because of my consulting job I help to work on different company investment strategies and I have to memorize and give opinions on options market hedging and investment strategies but I've never actually applied any of this to my own money.

Please, please give me a few portfolio breakdowns. I would really appreciate that. That's exactly what I need. Some portfolio breakdowns would be perfect for me.

I know what the rate of returns of bonds are...they aren't anywhere near 20%. My concern is more about the higher risk investments and how much I should put into them vs. this 20% investment as a sort of floor to my portfolio.

If your bank loan is 5x collateral your effective returns are 100%.

Leverage, son.

Okay.

For someone in their 20s, high yield growth like what you've described, high risk tolerance:

80% stocks
10% bonds
8% derivatives market
2% short term reserves

For your stock picks, this is something you will want to actively re-balance. Begin building a core portfolio with a couple of ETFs in a sector you like - biotech for example. This will be your bread and butter. Returns vary but you'll see things from 10-15% returns.

Bonds. these are long term, fixed income, lower volatility. returns are lower, but every portfolio has some to balance risks. Expect returns 3-6%

Short term: This is cash in a settlement account. You will use this to money to reinvest.

Derivatives. This is the market including any type of investment derived from another form of asset. Example: futures, options, etc. You can make a lot here, but it's highly volatile so don't put all your money in it.

>it lacks all liquidity

Oh god, this isn't P2P lending, is it? There's a reason those people need to find shady online loan options @ 28%, and it's not because they're such great credit risks. It sound great, you think, hey, even if 60% of these shitbags default, I'm still beating the S&P, but it'll be even worse than that.

I still don't know what the mysterious 20% return product is, so I can't really help build a portfolio around this "unicorn". Without knowing more.

I don't really care if it's illegal - Let's assume it is. For example, let's say it is underground gambling, then I might suggest you would do well to balance a portfolio in mid to large cap corporate sector. Since the legitimate income variances would make your "other" income look less suspicious.

It is not P2P lending or related to that, no. I will keep in mind your warning for the future though. Thanks.

I really appreciate this and I have a few questions. I understand it's a lot and if you don't have time to answer them all but I will ask them below.

Ok, from what I can see, the stocks and derivatives can be actively managed and even traded to yield higher returns for more effort/time on my part. Is that correct?

Secondly, could you briefly expand on what you mean by short term reserves and settlement account? That is the only part I'm unfamiliar with.

Should I consider mutual funds and mortgage backed securities like very lower-risk stocks?

What about commodities, like gold? Is there a reason you chose not to include that?

Lastly, let's say I follow this strategy and reevaluate next quarter and find that my stock allocation has now become 85% of the overall portfolio, hypothetically. Should I take out that 5% and attempt to rebalance the original allocation, adjust my bi-monthly deposits moving forward so I start putting less into stocks, or just let it grow and continue allocating new deposits the same as before?
Perhaps a better period for reevaluation would be a year than a quarter. And why?

Again, thank you for this response.
This is very useful for me.

my nigga you cannot be this ignorant and have a twenty percent guaranteed return

Yes, they can and should be actively managed.

Futures are a bit wild, and don't always respond directly to the market. Just for your own reading, check out helium and oil futures.

Short term reserves is what you keep in liquid cash form to execute trades. If you get a dividend or capital gain that money comes back to you in cash form. A settlement account is just the account used to hold money within a brokerage account.

I personally think mutual funds are outdated and prefer Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), that are automatically re-balanced. With a mutual fund, you pay more in fees to have someone managing the fund - on average those funds do not outperform ETFs.

Commodities, these you would be better investing in the futures of the commodity. Why invest in buying a bar of gold when you could buy a future that would become a gold mine (literally) as prices increase?

If your allocation is too high, but you like the stock, just build up in other areas. Be willing to sell an under-performing stock. Those percentages are estimates, so 85% stock could be fine for you.

Heading off for now, good luck.

in order to beat the market as an investor consistently you have to invest a lot of time and even then its not a sure thing.

if you have a legit sure thing that will give you 20% returns then you should put as much into it as you can. At 5000 after 30 years you'll make about a million bucks. multiply that by whatever factor of 5000 you're putting in.

The point is you'll be rich by your 50s if what you say is true.

Thank you so much for this advice.

I don't think this opportunity will last that long but thank you.

Usually when you think something is a sure thing is when you get screwed, just saying.

You don't know what you are talking about.
It's easy to look at the history of the stock market and say "if I had done x thing then I would have made more than my GUARANTEED 20%."
In reality you are going to either miss that investment or get in late or sell late a majority of the time.
The worst case scenario is that you lose money or waste your time on an investment that doesn't grow and you spend a month waiting on a rocketship that never leaves the station.
At $100,000 your 20% would get you 20,000 which is 1,500 a month.
You can't make that kind of money in stocks.
The bit coin craze relies on people pumping and that is going to stop within the next couple of months.

>that is going to stop within the next couple of months
Why do you say this? I'm curious.

It's just frustrating that for example, yesterday, I put in a big buy order just slightly lower than where a crypto was thinking for sure it would drop, but it just narrowly missed my buy order before shooting up 20% by today.

Now my investment in the OP is not related at all to crypto, but I was just wondering about the allocation because if I could, theoretically, make 20% in a day in the crypto thing, would I be selling myself short to lock up money for this 20% annual return? The other user really helped me understand some good allocation for me though.
I can see your point though.

It's true that you could make 20% in a day in crypto, but if that's the sort of risk and reward you're interested in, then it would be quicker and easier to just take your money to a casino.

this is a great thread. When will Veeky Forums finish with their crypto shilling?

>What are the expected returns for "stocks", "bonds"
Fuck all.

>what percentage would you recommend allocating into them?
If you have access to 20% returns with almost no risk? Nothing whatsoever.

>Should I be settling for 20-23% a year when I might be able to make that much in a day or week trying to trade crypto or on the stock market?
Yes.
I trade both as a hobby and I can tell you that if you have to ask about them, you WILL lose money.

>What allocation of portfolio would you recommend allocating to what level of risk and potential returns? Keeping in mind I want an aggressive portfolio as I am young.
There is nothing more aggressive than this that doesn't have correspondingly massive risks.

Again, the fact that you have to ask proves that you aren't a trader. It makes no sense to keep money out of a guaranteed 20% because you might need it when you stop losing money trading 6-12 months later.

>X stock or Y crypto went up over 20% today and I had a little money in it. Not a lot but a really small amount. So if I'd put that money in this guaranteed return thing instead of that crypto/stock, I would not have gained as much money. Now of course there's risk so I'm not gonna put a lot of money on that by any means, but some at least might be a good idea.
Literally gambling.