How much of a macro-historical impact do you think the Trump presidency will have on the world?
Let's ignore for a bit the political and ethical debates going on please. I'd like us to take a more scholarly, detached, "text book" approach to this if we can.
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I dunno, he sounds pretty dumb when he talks, and the last time we had a president that sounded dumb when they talked it wasn't pretty.
George Bush is capable of coherence. Trump speaks like a fucking stroke victim.
Not claiming to know a whole lot, but based on what he's said in his campaign/in the 60 minutes interview:
Domestically, clean energy initiatives in the US will get shut down, Trump's tax plan could potentially balloon the national deficit, and his Supreme Court picks will push the courts right for decades to come.
Internationally, it's hard to predict at the moment. I keep thinking of how things went for W. since Trump's administration seems like a sequel to his (a politically uneducated person being sheparded around by establishment politicians from the right), and it makes me sincerely hope that nothing like 9/11 happens during his presidency, or any kind of escalation of foreign conflict. With congress, the court, and the white house, a lot of precedent-setting unmooring of government power becomes very likely. I still think it's fucked how easily the world has taken PRISM and the Patriot Act's continued existence. In the event something happens to justify more overseas military intervention, I envision a lot of collateral damage. The US is already responsible for countless causualties by way of drone strikes, and Guantanamo Bay is still occupied by innocent people who were mistakenly detained and subject to torture. Somehow Trump wants to keep this around "and much worse"? Doesn't paint a pretty picture. I don't know enough about NATO to determine what effect Trump's desire to put pressure on that relationship/back out entirely would have.
For the purpose of determining what is history, please do not start threads about events taking place less than 25 years ago. Historical discussions should be focused on past events, and not their contemporary consequences. Discussion of modern politics, current events, popular culture, or other non-historical topics should be posted elsewhere. General discussions about international culture should go on /int/.
Trump makes Dubya sound like a philosopher-poet.
These next 4 years will not go well.
The only real impacts he'll have is that future candidates will know that they can employ more heavyhanded rhetoric. This isn't some revolutionary breaking of shackles - if you've studied American history at all you'll know seeming paradigm shifts like that from cosmopolitan multiculturalism to protectionism swing back and forth fast and quick.
He won't be able to do almost all of the shit he said during his campaign; although congress has a Republican majority, the Democrats still hold around 49% of the house and there are large swathes of Republicans who favour neoliberalism (free trade) and are corporate lobbyists. Term limits imposed on congress members DEFINITELY won't happen, and withdrawals from the WTO, imposing tariffs on China and Mexico won't happen.
>bush
>politically uneducated
He served a term as governor of Texas and was a political advisor for his father.
Don't believe the lies seeking to defang the image of Bush through accusations of incompetence. He knew exactly what he was doing and how many people would die or become impoverished every step of the way.
>asking on Veeky Forums
lmao, all you can expect is liberal bootyblasting. /pol/ is no better mind you
also, 25 years, faggot
>withdrawals from the WTO
Doesn't the president have the power to do this unilaterally though?
>countless casualties from drone strikes
We've nuked and firebombed civilian population centers, spread cancerous chemicals over our enemy's countryside, a few deaths from drones is nothing.
Anyways you paint a broad picture without understand the undercurrents which determine policy. Nearly every neo-con architect of the Iraq War from Bill Kristol to Richard Perle (who coincidentally are almost all jewish) supported Hillary this election cycle. Probably because war against Assad was one of her aims whereas Trump wants Assad to remain for stability, which ran against the plans Perle and Netanyahu had set up in 1996.
en.wikipedia.org
He will be credited for letting Russia rise again to super power status, and known for the decline and weakening of the American empire, ultimately resulting in WWIII where the United States is subjugated and forced to give up nuclear capability and Russia forms a new world government.
T. Ivan Ivankov
Your glorious days of gulags, starvation and angry Baltic peoples are over.
w-will it come back?
>hacks email
heh
what event from 25 years ago are you referring to op?
His policy of appeasement with Russia will cause them to start getting more aggressive w/r/t expansion in the Baltic and places like Georgia.
Whether they actually go through with it, and whether the rest of Europe actually reacts or just twiddles their thumbs, I don't know. In general though he's going to be another cocksock like Bush, the impact will depend on who becomes his puppetmasters.
Domestically I don't know, not an American. Seems like minorities are going to have a bad time though.
>Seems like minorities are going to have a bad time though.
oy vey people inspired by #blm won't be blowing police away every two weeks the absolute horror
I think he might mean the Muslim registry talk.
>implying that will happen
>implying the NSA doesn't track every piece of correspondence by anyone named Abdul, Mohamed, and Ahmed already
>implying cointelpro isn't already infiltrating mosques
t. Ctr
Its going to set the tone of american geopolitics for a whoe generation of people
>Peas for our thyme
What did he mean by this?
You think you're smart, but you're too stupid to realize Trump talks at a lower level in order to connect with working class people.
I'm not sure if Trump is actually smart. I think he just knows from experience there are workarounds to not being smart.
>I think he just knows from experience there are workarounds to not being smart.
wonder where you got that idea
Or the deporting all illegales talk. Or the repealing Roe v. Wade talk.
With Putin in power? No
But one can dream
neo-conservative economics requires the president to look like an idiot, so other central banks think he's an easy mark.
He'll either be a neo-con or destroy the Union.
I think you have to be pretty smart to realise you can side step "being smart".
It is like people claiming he is an idiot because he went bankrupt 5 times or something, the average couldn't go bankrupt once and bounce back from that, if the man did it 5 times and is still a fucking billionaire I don't know how this doesn't speak to his credit.
Or the fact he became president, say what you want, but you can't be a fucking idiot and become president, especially when not even your party gave you real support.
He didn't go bankrupt five times. Five of his subsidiary companies were bankrupted for gain. I don't think Trump has even gone bankrupt once.