Why does no thread talk about probabilities? Or expected value...

I'm with you, bro.

I feel your pain, brother. My latest algo trading system revolves around probabilities in a huge way. Now that most of the work is done, I just watch it run and collect the money. This is so easy it should be illegal.

Get your milquetoast white guilt middle class baby boomer piece of faggot shit investment strategy out of here.

TAU CETI OR BUST.

But that's the current reality of crypto markets
As long as there's an accelerating and neverending influx of 'investors' there will be quick gains for a lot of people

Man that's fucking great dude, no one on here seems to be interested in algo trading. I've been working on an supply and demand algo for the better part of two years now, it's great to go to sleep while your computer makes you money. It's like an employee that doesn't complain, or get tired. The best part is you can hide your server computer somewhere and pretend you're poor (That's what I'm doing at the moment)

Coiners will never experience this satisfaction both financially as well as just the fucking pride of creating something like that as an individual.

You are thinking too hard.
Right now is a hot time to trade coins.
Regardless of how smart the individual is you can make money in the short time right now.
This is like the golden age of real estate except that you arent taking on as much risk.
Crypto is a commodity.
You have to trade it as such.
Its a hot market so buy and it will continually go up until the market cools off.

If you get past a certain point in investing it's not so much investing with the odds in your favor it's more so just pure speculation. With reward comes risk, it's proportionate the carpet could get pulled from you guys at any point because these are just pump and dumps and are likely alive because of shit like these threads.

With that being said I'd rather stick to my small consistent gains, because they are reliable, I can expect them to some extent with minimal deviation as long as I follow my methodologies and don't do anything stupid.

you are overthinking it instead of making profits from the ones trying to get to the lambo. Those are the same idiots that will panic and make stupid choices like the other faggot that bought a shitton of RDD and now is on a thread trying to promote to unload his useless shit.
I believe there are some smart people doing good choices, then you have a group of noobs that don't believe in becoming millionares day over night and then you have the loud retards you are talking about that honestly are cannon fodder.
I made a thousand bucks this past month while learning, made a few mistakes, I do not believe in stupid ass shit as buying a lambo or buying one coin and getting a mansion. I do believe there is a shitton of money to make on the retards behind that pipe dream.
Join us and have fun and forget who made what mistake because if you are making a dollar somebody else is losing and what better people to lose it than the ones that were disrespectful.

Fuck. What was the end result here?

What kinda.... issa joke man chill

>Why does no thread talk about probabilities? Or expected value?
>Why is every thread shilling some silly pump and dump coin

Because cryptos have phenomenal expected value at the moment - the very thing you're saying makes a good investment

Just look at the market cap for all the cryptos over the past few months. Sure, you can't expect every coin to go up but the ones that do easily cover the ones that don't

If you want to talk about EV, buying cryptos is like a casino that gives you 3/1 on your money for red or black. Sure, you might lose occasionally, but the more you play the more you stand to gain

As for how long this situation will last, that's another story

TL;DR stop thinking you're so smart and morally superior. If you followed your own advice (probabilities and expected value) you'd be investing in crypto

I'm not even trying to make you mad or anything when I say this, I actually like sharing trading knowledge with people because it's something I find interesting.

But it's not that easy, trading is a game where one day you will think you understand everything and you're making money hand over fist, to the next day banging your fists on the table because you're down a couple grand. It's not until you understand that it's important to just play it safe and not try to be a hero outsmarting the market making ridiculous returns.

Yeah you can buy a Lamborghini, but don't expect it to be overnight, expect it to take 5 - 10 years it really depends how much time you put into it but you will eventually end up realizing that this simple game of shit going up and down is a huge fuckin rabbit hole. I've been doing this shit for 7 years now and I'm still learning new shit everyday.

How to read up on this/get started?
I'm studying mathematics so I think I should have the tools to do something like this.

What would you say are the "stupid" choices or mindset here?

I also find this lambo talk just a joke, but I've made over a 1k euro in the past few weeks so that's still a very decent money considering my initial investment.

And even though RDD does look like a pump and dump, why not throw some money in and get out before it gets dumped?

Why would I care about being disrespectful to a person who mindlessly shovels money into a vanguard account? Either you win or you lose. Just because 90% of the population doesn't want to play the game doesn't mean I should want to feel sad for them. Furthermore, plenty of people here are organically learning about market forces and fundamental/technical analysis just by participating in the investment game. To be sure, some of these investments can lead to extremely costly lessons, but that's applicable to ANY investment area. Thinking that you can't lose your ass in a flash sale when trading stocks is stupid.

Well firstly you would have to come up your strategy / methodology, I would suggest becoming profitable manually prior to attempting to convert it to code just so you understand the market. I would use Forex Tester 3 to train yourself using historical data, do this for literally at least a thousand hours at that point your brain will be effective at making decisions when you are in the battleground.

After that you will need to choose what platform you'd like to code for, two I use would be Metatrader or cTrader. If you want to code for Metatrader you'll have to learn MQL4 which shouldn't be difficult if you have any programming background.

docs.mql4.com/

If you want to code for cTrader (Which I like better as a platform but don't use for backtesting because of no visual backtesting) you'll have to learn C#. C# is a bit more difficult than MQL4 mostly because it's a full language not a scripting language like MQL4.

sololearn.com/Course/CSharp/
spotware.com/products/client-side-applications/ctrader

Then it's basically just the process of converting your methodology to code, which will take a bit and is a lot of trial and error. But you just grind it out and slowly the strategy will start becoming profitable.

if u actually were studying math, ch.1 would go over curve overfitting when backtesting

I don't put money into any vanguard account. I actively manage my forex account but I don't do it by being reckless, I just go for small consistent gains. You know 3% winner, 1% loser, 1% loser, 3% winner and so on just slow and boring stuff. But it does the job and ensures I will survive in the game.

Wow ok, thanks I'll start Forex Tester for some training then, do you recommend any books to read up on some strategies?
Literally no idea what this means.

I've been trading OKC futures since December and I agree, I try and keep track of my weekly progress via excel and track things like my EV, average position size, average win, average loss, win/loss ratio, etc.

Trying to make as many BTC profit as I can to get that upside torque to the btc/usd rate as it skyrockets too. Still realize I have a ton to learn about trading but it's been a ton of fun for the most part.

>There are people who work their ass off in life to buy a Lamborghini don't you think it's kind of disrespectful to them to assume you're just going to do it in 50 hours with no actual experience?

You're right, how can I give the money I made off crypto back? I feel so guilty and disrespectful. Why can't I be more like you OP? See Have you heard of a book called Flash Boys? These companies are buying up real estate as close as possible to exchanges for millions of dollars because THE SPEED OF LIGHT is too slow for them. They have the most advanced technology, can afford to hire the brightest PhDs from maths and physics - guys who'd be making rockets if they weren't doing this - and have access to more information than you can ever dream of.

And even these guys would be over the moon to make 10% per year

You want to get into algo trading? Do you have any idea what you're up against? Have you not heard the statistics about how many traders fail to beat the market average?

And then pussies like OP have the gaul to moan about other people trading crypto; a market that is new and yet to be subjected to the kinds of forces involved in stock trading. A market where you can make the kind of % gains in a day that these companies make in a decade.

Sure, it's a bubble waiting to burst. But at least you have a chance to actually win. There's no extra prizes for making your money by investing the traditional way. A dollar earned in crypto buys just as much as a dollar earned from compound interest in tracker funds - only you'll have a lot more in the former case.

I have read a lot of trading books, and not one that I've seen really gives away any kind of useful strategy. I would just recommend to not touch indicators, I used to trade using indicators then I got into supply and demand which for me seems to be almost like a holy grail applied properly.

There's lots of information about supply and demand from Sam Seiden of Online Trading Academy, but really if you go on youtube and look up that stuff it will lead you down the whole rabbit hole of SD trading. It also allows you to set and forget your trades with that type of methodology so you can analyze the charts in the morning, set your orders and go do your day price will come and hit your entry and its either a win or a loss no big deal

You understand there is a big different between institutional algo trading and retail algo trading right? Institutions have to worry about accumulating and moving the market when they enter and exit positions, they are incredibly large and slow.

Retail traders do not have this disadvantage, we can usually purchase any desired quantity immediately, or if using limit orders have that order filled as soon as price is touched. That adds an entire additional layer of complexity to their systems to implement VWAP or whatever shit they want to use to get in and out of the market.

Do you outperform the S&P500?

By what margin?

For how many years have you successfully outperformed the market?

If you can provide positive answers (e.g. "I average 12% annually and have done this consistently 8 years in a row") to all these questions, then you're a genius and could be making 6 figures at a wall street firm

If you answer negatively (e.g. "I beat the market average in 2009 and 2015, but overall I have underperformed the market during the last decade") then why bother?

Basically, you're either lying/exaggerating or you're in denial as to how successful a trader you actually are

*I meant 7 figures

holy fuck chinese crypto shills are killing this board

lol why would I even bother making models when there's such explosive growth atm?

>oh wow ETH at .01 sure does look pretty good probably worth about...
>whoops its $1
>whoops its $15
>whoops its $40
>whoops its $50
>alright well now that its momentum is slowing down maybe I can...
>whoops its $70
>whoops it's it's $80
>alright it's slowing down now I can FINALLY start predic-
>WHOOPS

Yeah, like do you not understand how trading works? Likely really do you not understand how short term trading works? It's employing leverage to do what you would do on a larger time horizon to a smaller one same shit.

You sound like an academic man who's got random walk stuffed so far up their ass.

...

Because it's not safe to assume it will continue exploding, don't you remember the tulip crisis?

Oh yes, how could I forget the tulip crisis of 400 fucking years ago.

Man, I better dump all my BTC before I can't sell it anymore and it just rots away.

Ohoho, how could I have been so silly to not compare my crypto to fucking flowers?

>1 dollar to 60

that's pussy shit, BTC has gone from fractions of a penny to thousands of dollars in literally the span of 7 years

if it was a "bubble" it would have died and gone by the wayside during one of the prior dozen "crashes"

bitcoin is antifragile and thrives on volatility and instability. It can't be killed. Idiots don't yet realize this.

Pocket change
Nice inspect element

Like I said, go tell any Wall Street firm about these gains. You've seen The Big Short, right? You know Michael Bury? Do you know what annual % he was making before he got given a ton of money to start Scion Capital or whatever it's called?

You're definitely a butt hurt fag man.

I don't understand why you're trying to convince me what I've done is not possible? Like that makes no sense, I didn't come here to brag as you can see I've given information I find is useful in the hopes for it to be constructive for anyone who wants to pursue a trading career.

You're investing in a circle alongside things called DogeCoin, SingularDTV, DigixDAO do you really think any of these aren't garbage? Oh yeah I'll take payment in DigixDAO, these are conjured up by people smarter than you to dump on you. I could understand if there were only a few main coins but when you go to the list and its a few pages long of just garbage shit it starts looking a bit silly.

How about you go to a Wall Street firm and tell them you trade pump and dumps of PotCoin or how about BlackCoin and let's see if they don't give you a laugh.

I'm a retired mathematician and computer scientist who does this as a hobby and I am having a great time. For a mathematics student, linear algebra, mathematical statistics and probability, linear and convex optimization, graph theory, and every course you can find on machine learning and algorithms will give you some great tools to work with.

OP please contribute to the forex / futures general.

So true, you have to be half retarded to not get rich right now without taking big risks. Too many are worried about getting nigger rich quickly in crypto and in life.

Real life rich people are much more concerned with hedging downside and taking above average gains, but not moonshots.

Be good in real life first, so you don't need to care about $5K swings in crypto. Live debt free, be skilled and valuable by investing in yourself. There's really no substitute for that. 99% of people are fucking morons, it's not that hard to win at life, but everything has a cost.

You think the bankers are going to give you an avenue to make you rich instead of themselves? Let that sink in...

And this actually works and will work particularly well in under-developed markets, like crypto. Only problem is you actually have to be smart enough to do it.

This is clearly a real life person who gets it, not some LARPer. Math is the name of the game on and offline.

I've been thinking about taking a shot at crypto markets, but I'm not really sure where to look for the historical data to work with.

Holy fuck, this is the most self-righteous bullshit I've heard in a long time.

You're on fucking Veeky Forums, what the fuck do you think is going to happen here? Ultra intelligent posts analyzing stock metrics and investment strategies? Every 25th word typed here is "nigger" or "faggot".

he's a boomer grandpa. it's fucking obvious how he doesn't understand technology or innovation.

Maybe not to that extent, but Veeky Forums is particularly bad in terms of post quality. Look at this guy.
Question any current flavor of the week coin and you'll be called "nocoiner", as if that means anything. Misinformation is spread fast and hard as everyone tries to get everyone else to buy into their shit. It's arguably worse than any thread you'll find on /v/.

You might find what you're looking for here
sierrachart.com/index.php?page=doc/Bitcoin.php

PhD stats here.
Can confirm. A little bit of Python goes a long way. I've made several thousand dollars since the beginning of 2017 by just letting my algorithm run all day and night.

Because honestly most people aren't capable of thinking in those terms. On to of that, consider the audience here. Do you think the kind of person who browses Veeky Forums can be bothered to calculate E[x]?

Obviously you can't believe everything you read here. You need to do your own fucking evaluation, but biz called eth, str, pivx, xrp, xby, and dgb.

If you fall for shit like bitbeans and hmq, no one can save you. If you want a legit reason to get into alt coins right now, read crypto yoda's post.

cryptoyoda1338.wordpress.com/2017/05/04/the-golden-age-of-cryptocurrency/

This is going to be a bubble just like the tech bubble, you can either miss out or make money. It's up to you grandpa.

What do you math guys use to determine if something like for example a trend is really there or just your bias?

For undergrads it's linear regression.
Y = B1x1+B2x2+...+Bnxn+e

It will help you suss out the statistical relationship between independent and dependent variables, and is an easy way to help separate signal from noise. Plus it can be done with an Excel add-in.

More advanced techniques exist of course, but this is my favorite place to start with people who have zero stats background.

Sorry. See Clicked on the wrong digits when I replied.

I actually bookmarked this thread because it has some good readings

>tfw instead of people realizing they spent half their years salary to buy a flower, people will realize they spent half their years salary to buy some intangible useless 1's and 0's
Huh I never thought about it that way

I've had a multi-decade love affair with the support vector machine.

Are SVMs really good at determining if trend is in effect or if it has changed?

Just did a book search for SVM trading and discovered this just published a new book this year I havent read them but I remember that previous books by this author are highly recommended.

This is exactly what I use them for. Feature engineering is the key. If the quality of your data is good enough to express a signal, an svm is very, very good at finding it.

This math is way over my head guys Im a brainlet here. But if I could work to get to the point of being able to understand this stuff would I be thinking this is exactly what I need?

I've seen this, but I haven't read it. Looking at the table of contents online, what I'm doing looks like a combination of chapters 3 and 4.

...

Looks very interesting but unfortunately the math involved is above my current understanding. But if I'm understanding the description correctly it looks like this stuff can be used for identifying "trends".

Can this meme die already, they're moving MILLIONS, MILLIONS a day. The amount we can ever obtain would be nothing considered the amount they move. Also they do proper risk management, just think of how much they would risk per 100k block

Did he died?

RDD looks like some idiots that have huge bags and want someone to dump on and move onto another coin. It's just sitting there no movement at all on the order books.
Stupid choices like people jumping into RDD because you have one user making the same threads over and over without checking the activity.

>
etc posts/

Very good read bois, I learned a lot of things today.

I just wished yall did this more often.

>I just wished yall did this more often.

I try, but it usually gets buried by all of the coin threads. I'd love to see an occasional /algo/ general thread.

try out /g/ or make a post here, Veeky Forums used to be a slowwwww moving board though

I also would love to see more discussions on this. I wanted to see more discussions on futures and forex so I've been shamelessly bumping that thread trying to keep it alive, maybe I'll add algo trading in as well. What do you think would those topics fit well together?

We're riding a new age of tech that we got in on the ground floor. My portfolio has increased every month. As more and more money poors in amd market caps increase you can throw a dart at the top ten coins and make money. You're not going to beat companies with teams of people managing millions. Even with those only what 5 percent of them beat the market? Crypto is my generations gold rush, who cares if it's "luck". It's all about timing, cryptos marketcap isn't even 5% of what it will be.

If your the guy who's been posting futures and only getting 10 replies at the most, keep on. Maybe give insight in rgt. I'm most interested in commodities but dont trade or look at news anymore, but I naturally gravitate towards it

I'm still learning and I started the current forex and futures thread because I liked the last one and I wanted to see more hoping I could learn more from discussions and people showing their charts.

I agree with you. I day trade crypto. And I want to be able to do long term investing and get a rental house or two....I am broke and pathetic. But I've put about $2000 into crypto and I put $100-$200 into whatever biz shills. I watch the chart rise and I sell when I make 50%. Unless the excitement doesn't seem to be slowing at all....then I hold for a while longer. I watch crytoyoda on Twitter and buy and hold whatever he says....I've made thousands doing this and having long term holds in LTH and BTC. I have no idea what I am doing and I am about to pay the crytoyoda guy to teach me about reading charts etc....I have kids I have to put through college.....this may be stupid and a waste of my time....my friends laugh at me if I tell them what I am doing and say I sound like one of those crazy people who love magic cards. But i guess they don't have kids who have been saying their whole lives that they want to be doctors...

2300 hours on my name, and its only charting and pattern recognising

I wonder if there are enough of us hanging around to warrant two threads. I'll always check out an /algo/ thread for whatever that's worth.

I didnt mean two threads I meant maybe next time I create a thread with the topic "Forex and Futures and __", where the blank could be filled something like Quant or Algo and then try to keep that one thread alive.

Haha good luck

Big firms require microwave network links to exchanges and teams of tons of PhDs in stats and machine learning to not get fucked up the ass by big-dick bubbas like Jane Street Capital and friends.

You better have EXTREMELY GOOD sanity constraints or else you're going to kill yourself

OP here, join the Forex and Futures thread I am AmiRquFB, also start algo one. Let's just push the crap coin shill threads out with good resourceful threads to actually help people yno

US and Euro markets have reached efficiency levels where the only reliable investment strategy with solid basis in financial academia is investing in several indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Real Estate, Commodities, etc): low administration fees and except you have a massive starting capital, whatever alpha you manage to gain through personally studying stocks intrinsic values won't be worth your time.

the other option is going into developing countries markets. Brics, SE Asia. Lots of inefficiencies you can exploit for arbitrage opportunities if you know what youre doing

...

>whatever alpha you manage to gain through personally studying stocks intrinsic values won't be worth your time.

But the point is that after you invest the time to get a decent system running, you don't have to spend all of your time analyzing stocks. The system does it for you and does it far better and on a much larger scale than you could possibly do on your own. My system can analyze hundreds of stocks every day with almost zero effort on my part and cherry pick what it thinks are the best opportunities.

>Oh yes, how could I forget the tulip crisis of 400 fucking years ago.
lmao

what software do you use?

>Why does no thread talk about probabilities? Or expected value
Is this baby's first stats class? GTFO until you come back with stochastic processes retard.

This, it is ETH or hell.

In GNT, I'm risking a 50% downturn to $0.10 and expecting a 4x multiple at $1.00. Long term expecting a 40x multiple at $10.00

Only sensible post ITT.
If you've been trading forex for years and aren't in crypto, you haven't learned anything about the game.
The stock market is for billion dollar funds moving hundreds of billions through derivatives. Crypto cannot sustain that volume and therefore isn't worth it for the bigger players. Getting 4% of 100k isn't the same as getting 4% of 100m. One gives you a short vacation, one sets you up for life. There are better returns at lower levels of capital because your investment is a much smaller part of the market... unless you're so oblivious you blindly copy what billionaires do. It's about scale.

>mindlessly shovels money into a vanguard account
yeah
but the NEETs aren't mindlessly shoveling their $500 net worth into scamcoins right? THEY'VE GOT A SYSTEM

How much would you guys charge for one of these algorithms?

You can't calculate probabilities on what is essentially pure speculation.

Cryptoyoda is the boss.
Just threw $5k in ETH.

twitter.com/CryptoYoda1338/status/865145533073158144