Quick and dirt BTC/USD analysis (data from BFX)

Quick and dirt BTC/USD analysis (data from BFX).

You can see we broke out of major channel in the last few hours. This channel kept going since the latest dip @ ~1970 some day ago. The trendline on the bottom is the major uptrend trendline and has been going on for almost two weeks, since ~1700. If that trendline gets fucked, sell everything. If the trendline holds, there might be a recover.

Meanwhile check out the mid-term fib retracements between the 1970 dip and todays high. Those are valid levels to scalp right now and watch out for (see how the big dip exactly ended at the 2250 retracement).

My personal opinion is that BTC is fucked and has no future. We'll wait and let the market decide. Good luck everyone!

interesting

rate my analysis, I think their might even be a double dip once GDAX and Coinbase are back up

>15min chart for analysis

>30min chart for analysis

I used a wider chart for fib/major trendline. Snapshot was taken in shorter chart range.

>30min chart for analysis
growth was steady before that its only recently it shot up at an insane speed because of normies buying in
and now they are cashing out

Yes, that level is very important (~2200). Fibonacci and major trendline are quite close to there, if that gets broken it will be a huge downfall.

>Fibonacci
what do you mean?

I only drew that shit cos it looked cool to me desu
I have no knowledge of trading patterns or anything in this realm.

Coinbase is down. When the users log in the downfall is going to be brutal.

I dont think 2200 will hold. This really seems to be the big impending correction.

Im guessing we're gonna see the floor at 900 or maybe even lower.

>drew a bunch of lines on a graph
>BTC is fucked and has no future

Seems legit.

>Im guessing we're gonna see the floor at 900 or maybe even lower.
woah thats way too low?
even at the 1k ATH it corrected to like ~800 and grew back steadily if I remember correctly

The $1200 peak of 2013 saw a floor of $196. It took years for it to climb back to $600.

The rally from $600 to $1100, started earlier this year and was stablizing around 900. Which is why I assume it will atleast see 900 or lower before climbing back up to 1200-1500 stable.

Those "lines" are actually technical analysis. And it is what drives and allows you to predict basically every tradeable asset. Especially cryptocurrencies, where fundamental analysis is not that important.

2013 was because of mt gox lmao wtf are you smoking

Lots of overreaction ITT. Bitcoin will stay around ~2200 and be back up to 2500 by the weekend.

>where fundamental analysis is not that important.
Opinion discarded. You are the idiot that didn't buy LTC when it was $4 because you didn't pay attention at the fundamentals (segwit being activated).

When segwit gets activated in BTC and we get lightning network with trillions of transactions per second, you'll kill yourself over your failed TA.

I mean Fibonacci retracements, those are a technical indicator, working with the Fibonacci sequence. You input a price range (high/low) and it will draw those lines in between (see my pic). Those are basically support/resistance levels, usually more valid when trendlines overlap with them.

As you can see in the pic, the big drop stopped exactly where the program drew the line, and the major trendline is close to that level. What you drew is a past resistance becoming support now. The level is the same. All those indicators suggest that the 2200 level is a pretty strong and important one, so should prices break that, it will be a long fall before they settle down again on another strong level.

>30 min chart
>applying linear chart in bitcoin for long term predictions
KEK. See you at $8000.

I didn't say BTC is gonna crash for sure based on my current TA. The price is holding fine for now. The ending line was just my personal opinion in the long run. And if the price breaks ~2200 we'll see how it will go :)

Please do also remember that LTC (as many other CCs) just follows BTC average trend. Shit was stuck for years until whales started throwing money in BTC recently, so LTC also increased. And if you seriously think FA is more important than TA in cryptocurrencies (literally, bytes given value solely by people's will) you should reconsider.

In all seriousness, what do you guys think of the speed at which this correction occurred?

What's your next prediction sensei?

OP here, updating the analysis. Prices are going back up for now, testing the channel again. Huge bid wall at ~2500, generally if the price manages to reinsert into the channel and over the channel fib retracement, uptrend should continue, at least for now. Testing could also fail and bring the price down to 2200 critical level

the sell wall of 4mill has been reduced to 3mill today, downfall inminent

thank mr chart

I will beat you to death

thank mr chart

Thank you Mr. Chart!

OP again, lat update for now, since price movement seem to be slowing down. Keep this chart close and watch it for the next days, should be fairly accurate.

Thank you OP. How long will it take for us to know?

>My personal opinion is that BTC is fucked and has no future
Elaborate, senpai.

The chart is set with 15 mins candles, but the price ranges marked there (visible on the right) are intended to be mid-term, so next days I would say. Possibly even hours. Always watch the volume (this more than anything else!) and technical indicators, since those really determine price direction. A movement without volume won't hold for long

i'd cash out in bullion the moment that bad boy hit 2:1 ratio.

You think markets trade based on facts?
all pure psychology..... people see the price go down and they jump ship

Many Autistic people are used to living in a world where "more features/better tech = better", this is why they can't understand why the iPhone is so popular. It's also why they erroneously think that Bitcoin being old, slow and expensive means it will be replaced by something more advanced.

10/10 OP would subscribe.

What program do you use for your chart?

>this is why they can't understand why the iPhone is so popular
But the iPhone is objectively superior in many ways
>typical "lol it's overpriced garbage for normies" memer
I can tell you don't own one and have never developed software

W-will it recover? I kinda bought too early and now I'm hodling that shit.

lack of a circuit breaker is clearly an issue

truly disastrous crashes are always a possibility. If/when it actually goes it will be too quick for anyone on this board, insitutionals will have already liquidated thier positions

>I can tell you don't own one and have never developed software

I have nothing against the iPhone and I completely understand why people own them.

How can you be so awesome. You should come by more often.

In the long run, that is my opinion. BTC was dead until sometime ago, when whales started throwing in big money and brought the price to the stars (not a single retracement in weeks!).

Another theory of mine is that since whales have joined, they also brought trading bot with them (cucks have literally so much money that let a shitty bot written by someone else perform all their operations, kek). These bots have no fundamental analysis principles whatsoever, and work only by technical analysis principles. They identify a trend, and operate.

This is my guess about why BTC has been surging nonstop lately. Humans have psychological limits. They will eventually stop buying/selling since they believe other humans are doing the same. Algorithms have no such opinions, they keep buying/selling as long as their inputs tell them to do so.
Since bots have been buying like crazy here's what happened: BTC to the moon! But what if they start selling? The algorithm works also for downtrends, remember :)

But leaving this theory aside, I really think it's crazy that people will assign a value on thousands of dollars to bytes. Non material numbers. Commodities like gold make sense, since they are physical, they have intrinsic value. Bytes have not. An HDD with some BTCs on it dies and they are just lost forever, gone. You don't make gold disappear like that :) What will happen when people fully realize this?

Maybe I am completely wrong, who knows? Time will tell, But something so volatile and intangible is not something I want to seriously invest into.

>I have nothing against the iPhone and I completely understand why people own them.
I wasn't suggesting that, I'm just calling your analogy into question because of your apparently flawed logic. The iPhone hasn't been replaced because it's objectively superior by a lot of metrics. The alternatives aren't technologically superior or practically superior, therefore the analogy falls apart.

How about you stop being a pussy and just fucking hold you faggot. These big dips are a routine part of crypto. Just shut the fuck up and weather the storm.

Indeed. Not looking forward to the day I wake up and find that bitcoin rose $2000 and then dropped $8000 while I was asleep.

Right? I'm tired of all the altcoin shilling. Need some real discussion.

People assign value to fiat

>What program do you use for your chart?
I use bitcoinwisdom and TradingView for online charts. MetaTrader for desktop.

>You should come by more often.
Thanks, I appreciate it! I am still a newfag here, will definitely start lurking/posting more, chill place.

Holding for now, if only you'd read my updated analysis

>since they are physical

Tulips >>>> BTC confirmed.

Trips of truth. OP is the chosen one who will deliver us from shills and PND schemes into the land of steady long-term gains.

Fiat is backed up by people with nuclear weapons.

this is all so wrong. Are you retarded or just pretending. Are ethcucks really stooping this low with their blatant shilling?

FIATs are a different story. They're backed by governments and banks.

>I really think it's crazy that people will assign a value on thousands of dollars to bytes. Non material numbers
Good job, you don't understand what bitcoin is and why it has value. I suggest selling instead of subjecting us to your ignorant opinions

>But something so volatile and intangible is not something I want to seriously invest into.

This is completely true. But crypto does have inherent value directly propositional to capital controls imposed by government. There are markets, and occasions, that would rather operate with less regulation and more privacy. That being said, the current price is a result of speculation/bots/name it.

>An HDD with some BTCs on it dies and they are just lost forever, gone
wrong
>You don't make gold disappear like that
wrong again
> What will happen when people fully realize this?
you mean when people are as ignorant as you? That's why we have the internet, so you can google stuff and learn why you are wrong.

Everyone is a genius at the middle of the chart

I am not implying BTC is worthless. I am saying it is way too overpriced right now, due to whales and trading bots. Initial BTC pump back in 2013 was due to euphoria since CCs were relatively new and became popular, so that was just people buying them. Once it hit $1k, people (humans) realized what the fuck they were doing and sold everything. BTC settled down to a more reasonable (maybe?) price. Now, FFWD to 2017, shit I told you happened.

Who knows, whales and bots may inflate this thing forever, but believing in the self-regulated market, I think one day (very soon possibly) BTCs will settle back to what they actually are worth.

I told you dumb faggots that BTC was a scam but no no no, you fuckers wanted to believe in your "turn 5$ into a bajillion" scam. Fuck. God damnit kids you fell for the jewish banker tricks. You were so caught up in thinking about how cool you were with your supposed "anti-establishment" libertarian utopia currency, you couldn't see that the banks own Polonix and Kraken. The banks don't need to own the currency just manipulate the exchanges for you retards to get BTFOd

You might be a newfag, and a namefag at that, but you've provided this board with a lot of good info. Hope you stick around despite all the shitcoin shilling. There's some top autists on this board it's all about finding them.

>I am saying it is way too overpriced right now,
that's where you are wrong user, you are incredibly wrong.
> Initial BTC pump back in 2013 was due to euphoria since CCs were relatively new and became popular, so that was just people buying them. Once it hit $1k, people (humans) realized what the fuck they were doing and sold everything. BTC settled down to a more reasonable (maybe?) price. Now, FFWD to 2017, shit I told you happened.
Holy shit why do ignorant people like you feel the need to come on Veeky Forums and spout their ignorant opinions? Before going to 1k btc had already spiked and corrected, but everytime it spikes again, it always creates a new floor. Bitcoin is not "overpriced", it is simply growing in price at the right pace. You'll see btc getting an almost decent price for its worth at least (this is a very very conservative estimate) when its marketcap is 2 trillion usd.

>Who knows, whales and bots may inflate this thing forever, but believing in the self-regulated market, I think one day (very soon possibly) BTCs will settle back to what they actually are worth.
And what do you think that is? Let's hear it. You clearly don't understand what bitcoin is, if you think it's overrated right now

BTC will drop to support at $1900 and bounce, if it cant hold there it will go to $1300.

This particular bull run inst the one we've been waiting for. It will continue to rise once its sorted itself out. $10k by the end of the year doesn't seem too crazy to me.

You do understand what creates volatility right? It is the fact that people are unsure of the true "fair value" of a commodity. This is why oil goes from 2.50 to 1.50 in the states, why diamonds lost 250% in value, why the housing market in the US lost 5% this month, and why BTC can lose more than 20% of its value in a matter of a half hour. You are the retard on this board sir because your hubris is unchecked and unbounded by reality.

Where do I go if I want to learn more about chart analysis?

Fuck I hope so. More cheap coins

I just posted pure technical analysis here, then added that my personal opinion is that BTCs are overpriced right now.
I also said I might be completely wrong, I study and practice tech analysis as an hobby lmao those are simply my views regarding BTCs.

So I am happy to argue with people with different ideas, that's how you learn stuff in the end. But please, don't tell me that BTC is growing at the right pace. It has been stuck for a long time, and now suddenly flying to the moon, without a single retracement! Go and check any chart you want, even the most bullish ones. There are always retracements, and price never skyrockets this much and for this long. The problem here is that BTC is getting inflated too much, IMO. And this is why I think it will crash.

>You do understand what creates volatility right?
so what? There's volatility in fiat too.
> It is the fact that people are unsure of the true "fair value" of a commodity.
Wrong. That's just because there is no central bank controlling the flow of money to stabilize demand and supply. It's just free market, but as you can see because of the features and usefulness of bitcoin, that volatility always tends to a higher price, rendering pointless every retarded argument you had in your head as to why volatility for bitcoin is bad.
Uncertain assets don't go from 0 to 2500 in 7 years you fucking idiot.
>. This is why oil goes from 2.50 to 1.50 in the states, why diamonds lost 250% in value, why the housing market in the US lost 5% this month, and why BTC can lose more than 20% of its value in a matter of a half hour.
way to gather together things that have nothing to do with each other just except the fact they have a priced value and that value goes up and down all the time lmao
>You are the retard on this board sir because your hubris is unchecked and unbounded by reality.
open some books ignorant nigger, read instead of fapping on Veeky Forums ffs

This guy deserves a medal.

Trolling admitted newfags isn't exactly hard.

>I just posted pure technical analysis here, then added that my personal opinion is that BTCs are overpriced right now.
TA by itself is fucking useless, all traders know that. Especially when enforced by your ignorant retarded opinions
>I also said I might be completely wrong, I study and practice tech analysis as an hobby lmao those are simply my views regarding BTCs.
Retarded opinions
>But please, don't tell me that BTC is growing at the right pace.
It is, and I have already told you why
> It has been stuck for a long time, and now suddenly flying to the moon, without a single retracement!
Have you started following bitcoin since yesterday? How fucking ignorant can you be? Bitcoin has been slowly going up for 2 years, and it has had lots of corrections and dips, you just don't know about them because you fucking weren't there. A lot of retracements in the last year have been due to Bitfinex getting hacked, the PBOC blocking withdrawals, hard-fork scare etc.etc. we've had literally dozens of events trying to stop btc but nothing was able to. In 2013 the lack of confidence was due to the fact that a lot of people lost their BTC, but that faith was restored by people learning about the technology (which you aren't doing).
>There are always retracements, and price never skyrockets this much and for this long.
yes, I am sure Google and Apple stocks are worth nothing right now compared to a decade ago. Will you wake the fuck up? Also I have already told you bitcoin has had plenty of retracements. One of them LITERALLY TODAY.
>The problem here is that BTC is getting inflated too much, IMO. And this is why I think it will crash.
And you're wrong again, like you were when you said that it was inflated at 400 dollars per btc. Keep coping nocoiner

hahah this guy cracks me up, where do you get the ether to fuel your patience to actually respond to idiots?

give me your crypto opinions/facts I am intrigued

nocoiners literally cannot recover from this

>BTC was dead until sometime ago
Into the trash it goes

hard to say, but as I mentioned earlier, until we reach 2 trillion usd marketcap I am definitely not going to sell. The dotcom bubble was 3 trillion dollars before it popped, and crypto is going to be much bigger than that. The ease of access to investment and global decentralized nature of it attest to that.

>Nonsensical arguments. And you didn't even read my TA, since I am still holding, not selling until ~2200 is broken.
sell as fast as you can. You'll buy in again at a higher price anyway, like all the nocoiner cucks

With "dead" I meant its volatility was basically dead. It also had settled for a more reasonable price, and was actually following a normal uptrend.

C O P I N G

O

P

I

N

G

bump

>i said this same thing about LTC my first week in crypto kek

yo dumbass, bitcoin pop does not mean crypto pop.

bitcoin has popped twice in the past and it will continue bubbling and popping after every halvening.

crypto is here to stay.

>crypto is here to stay.
not the one we currently have

Mr. Chart. What is going on?

OP here (probably going to have a different ID since am AFK from mobile).

Same shit as before. Price keeps testing 2500, not enough volume though. Still out of the channel and below 2500.

This, OP is a faggot.

TA is basically reading tea leafs/horoscopes.

>I still use it though

thank mr chart

>An HDD with some BTCs on it dies and they are just lost forever, gone.
>Maybe I am completely wrong, who knows?
>who knows?

I do, you are completely wrong.

I need to sleep mr. chart. Should I sleep in fiat or btc?

I am not. If you lose your wallet, your bitcoins are gone. Sure you can use an online wallet/backup shit, but they will be gone if the HDD the wallet is on dies and you have no backup or a way to recover data from the drive.

Hold. Price will probably remain between that safe zone, at least for now.

thank mr. chart

This is getting sad, user. You need to research the available methods of backing up your wallets before you actually lose a bunch of money.

You are missing my point. Of course anyone dumping cryptocurrencies into an HDD without care is a retard. My point is that it is quite a gamble to seriously invest in cryptocurrencies, since being intangible and with no intrinsic value could potentially mean waking up with basically zero liquidity, because price has gone to shit. This can happen. If people get nervous and decide to sell, value could as well drop like crazy and suddenly.

TL;DR: CCs aren't shit or worthless, just extremely risky and IMO not worth *seriously* investing into it, when you have safer options.

>what is risk/reward

Every BTC enthusiast out there will tell you shit could hit the fan and the value could drop off the face of the earth. You're not telling us anything we haven't known for years. As such with each passing day the blockchain gets stronger and stronger and the likelihood of that happening grows smaller and smaller.

It sounds to me that you lack a fundamental understanding of how this shit actually works.

Well, I was specifically saying in this thread why I believe bitcoin price will drop in the near future. What I meant by "it has no future" was that at this rate of price increase it has no chance to keep going.