Forex, commodities, futures, (binary)options, CFDs, fundamental, technical, quant, intermarket analysis, orderflow, algo

All the metals seem to be indicating there could be resistance?

crypto is interesting and I think it's set to get bigger. It's for that reason that you guys should pay attention to other markets. As it gets bigger, and more people join in, it'll become more at mercy to the same market influences.

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There's no doubt resistance, but my opinion is that after such a huge drop in gold and silver during april and may, I'm doubtful we'll have a repeat. Any pullback from resistance will find good support, and prices will make a move either sideways or (in my opinion) towards higher levels.

Do you suspect there could be resistance to upside and possible dowtrend?

Not too confident with forex sorry, but you probably know about the upcoming elections and how Theresa May hasn't been doing as well in the polls as expected (if I've heard correctly).

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/es 2413.25
/ym 21060
/nq 5791.75
/zb 152'29
/zn 125'310
BTC-e BTC/USD 2287.976
as of 12:26pm eastern standard time.

What coins do you guys recommend I buy?

Is there a Robinhood equivalent for forex? I want to get started without a big investment.

is momentum trading a meme?

whats stopping every ass hole from going long on easily identifiable pivots and doing successive half position sales for a quick buck or 2 every day?

I use the MACD and Rsi which I think are momentum indicators, and when crypto traders on here talk about volume, they're essentially trading another view of momentum as well. It's a great tool. I believe computer algorithms use it too, in addition to differential calculus, and monitoring of proximity to moving averages.

Lots of brokers have minimum position sizes of 1000 units which in ___USD pairs would be mean each pip is $0.10,, and some bucketshops will even let you do custom number of units.

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Do you know why the US dollar index is so low right now? I would've thought it'd at least come out of a downtrend due to probable fed rate hikes.

I dont know. But its interesting retail is long dollar.

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those gains i had on the day brexit was decided were fucking nice

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damn i wish the markets would crash 50% like in 2008 so i can long s&p500 futures and hodl/roll for a fucking decade

Futures are open 24 most of the week. The beginning of London and New york sessions are the most meaningful though

I'd have to say that it is because, by the time the average asshole sees that a pivot is taking place, the best opportunities are gone. It is not as easy as you make it sound.

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buy the dip

Hi All,

Algo writer here, I specialize on writing algos that capitalize on Volatility. I have some methods of identifying individual stocks, but i'm unsure what may be the best way to identify if the market is going to be relatively volatile for a given day. Does anyone have any thoughts? I've just started wanting to code this into the algos so I'm not that thought out yet... Basically I'd scrape futures data to predict the daily relative volatility. Are there better/ alternative indicators out there? Like twitter volume or something else

Do you think upcoming calendars events with expected medium to high impacts like for example prove significant?

That could work, especially if there is an expected vs. actual that's updated asap somewhere (and importance of the indicator).

I'd not want to do the work of programming grabbing that info from the various reporting agencies, but it might be necessary for efficiency's sake.

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What do you think of these pages?

Just measure how many contracts are trading and what the price is doing as a result.

Thats as much as ill say.

You will struggle unless you work for a trader who feeds you ideas.

>I use the MACD and Rsi which I think are momentum indicators

They are LAGGING indicators.

>volatility

Volatility, in a practical sense, is caused by lack of contracts trading so the price sweeps through levels with ease and possibly in an erratic manor as well.

London open is the easiest to trade. I know Americans who trade in the middle of the night to get a piece of it. I trade London, NY and Asian opens.

I like the depth and style of writing and will probably buy the book to read, but so far there haven't been examples of modern day volatility prediction. These pages will inform the specifics how I answer the question. Thank you for sharing

Ive heard some describing it something along the lines of say for example there are a bunch of sell market orders the price engine algos will do stuff like widen the spreads and tick to sweep down through the levels in the orderbook to till it finds bids and will probably find the required liquidity in a level below the previous low. Correct me if wrong.

If I'm interpreting this wrong let me know
investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/measuringmomentum.asp

They are lagging

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is this Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets?

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by Stephen Satchell

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Do you know where i can get this resource free, or will it cost?

>They are lagging

Yes, they tell you after the move has finished that the move has finished, ie the markets losing momentum.

Personally I just cant use something like that to help me trade.

Divergences are often used with MACDs, but then why use an MACD when i can study volume instead.

I guess it's all based around the idea of changes in rates and extrapolating from that, volume certainly is important too

That chart is a stop run. I will sit there all day and buy that, so will other "good" traders, so the market goes up. Many people sell the break of a previous low. Buy the lows sell the highs. In the GU chart the price comes back down after breaking previous low to try to break lows again. Market participants stop the weak attempt. Sellers become buyers, market finds a higher price. Maybe it will go all the way it came from, maybe it only goes to the last significant support before the low that got taken. In the days or weeks to come, that area of low liquidity (long stretched candles) where the market swept down will be traded again.

Algos are not some all powerful entity that control the markets. Most of them are only in the market to make a tick and then they are out again. They are also operated for limited a mounts of times. It is possible to tell then an an algo has been switched on/off when watching a market, you can learn the algos character and quickly recognise it too. Sometimes they only come on for 20 minutes. Somtimes they spend all morning buying a market up only to sell the shit out of it. Most dont last for more than a few months as they become exploitable. Most are market makers. Some will trade trendlines and other TA. Other front run big orders.

A market spread will widen on lack of liquidity and increased volatility. Bids and offers hitting the market move the market. Limit orders cannot move a market. Markets sweep through levels all the time when news comes out because there are literally only 1 or 2 participants in the market till liquidity COMES BACK IN. Again, the picture you show is a stop run imo.

Dont you think the majority of funds use some sort of trend following?

>volume certainly is important too

Volume is the real, core, fundamental, critical information.

Study volume. Get charting software that allows you to read it in ways that works for you. Market Delta or IRT Linn Soft are good.

K, thanks

Not in the way that you are probably thinking. They tend to form an opinion on fundamentals, and then they will go to market with that info. Would they buy something because it bumped off a trend line for the third time? No.

Do they used MACDS and RSI's? No.

Have i sat at a analyst desk and seen all the guys rag the shit out of the TA guy who lives on the next desk and basically call his line of work a load of shite? Yes

TA can work, and i know guys who make money from just using it. In a fund though all trades are ideas generated on an analyst desk. 99.9%. You just cant turn round to an investor and babble on about the idea for most of your trades comes from a lagging indicator that lets you know when all the other funds have stopped buying. But you can lay big bets following what the Central Banks say, or dont.

Be careful, its a rabbit hole. Trading should be avoided if you want a stress free and happy life.

If they purely base it on fundamentals, you have seen discussions here about index funds. Why bother going to consistently outperformed managed funds who pay their analysts a lot, and perhaps have limits as to what they can do? Why doesn't everyone just through everything into following the SP 500, with its short lived corrections, and ability to always make a comeback from a crash?

*you may have seen discussions here

Nice integers.
So do you like mean reversion? Yeah a stop run is what I was getting at. But too many retail people think that it's THEIR stop that's being targeted when what I think what's really going on is what I described before and it's not retail stops they need for liquidity it's the other large players like the various kinds of funds. They cant even see retail liquidity because they are at the interbank and we are confined inside the sandbox of our brokers.
I didnt mean here to refer to algos like the hedge funds who run HFT which are non directional bias and make money with the spread by making the market between bid/ask I wasnt referring to those market making algos. I was thinking of the actual order matching engine the price engine itself not the HFT hedge funds but the interbank primary dealers.

*throw everything

I wasn't thinking in terms of retail indicators including the two you mentioned. I meant that I believe there are a lot of different kinds of funds (pension, insurance, etc) which have strategies that basically boil down to being trend following but their are not based on retail indicators their algos are based on on sophisticated models and quant analysis. I have a lot of screencaps that lead me to believe this I guess I'll try to post some.

>Why doesn't everyone just through everything into following the SP 500, with its short lived corrections, and ability to always make a comeback from a crash?

Fear. They want someone to hold their hand.

I also think the funds have great salesmen. I caught one at my parents house last year. He had a BMW i8 parked outside and when i went in he had already started his pitch, even though they said they wanted me there. I played dumb till the last minute before twisting him in knots. My mother (because she felt bad for him) started talking to him about his suit when he realised he was in the shit with me for trying to con my parents out of their excellent coupon price they already had. He told her a sob story about how both his parents were blind, and he is colour blind, so he would go to friends parties wearing the craziest fucking clothes and colours and that even before he left the house to sell to my parents, he had to check with his (i can only guess good looking) wife whether he was dressed correctly. And he checks every day. My mum would have signed right there and then if i hadn't been there, and he would of been off to the tailors to buy another excellent suit.

I think also that greed plays a role into making high net individual run to a fund and ask them to take his money. Some fund last a few years. Others ore oversubscribed within months and stay that way for the whole time they operate. The fund guys who sell the crashes are the ones who tell a client once you leave me you can never come back.

The average individual has a moral duty to himself to understand how to take money from a monthly paycheck and buy a chunk of the top ten (for example) performing stocks every month, month in month out.

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Do you know of any decent indicators?

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>mean reversion

Yes. Mean reversion is pretty much what the market is always doing.

>But too many retail people think that it's THEIR stop that's being targeted

Thats how it feels to them, especially when they just went long after being short. :)>I didnt mean here to refer to algos like the hedge funds who run HFT which are non directional bias and make money with the spread by making the market between bid/ask I wasnt referring to those market making algos. I was thinking of the actual order matching engine the price engine itself not the HFT hedge funds but the interbank primary dealers.

I trade futures and it is centralised. Orders are easier to match if they are even numbers apparently, at least not a load of ones being fired through to hide a big number. Big trades get matched first, and a market will see out the big numbers. Ive seen oil (cl) stopped dead in it tracks by 30 contracts, and ive see in plough through hundreds at levels and keep going.

The main thing you should take away from me is to learn about the context of the market. Sure you could write an algo that will reverse the market every time it comes into the weekly open or the yearly open (incidentally we are on a lot of yearly opens right now in fx).

My heart bleeds for that poor, poor fund manager, with his nice bmw

Btw I'm relatively new with trading, where did you guys learn your stuff? And are you able to generate amounts to allow you to live off?

>Big trades get matched first
How do you know? I'm curious can I look at the documentation for CME's order matching engine or is that like top secret?
>Ive seen oil (cl) stopped dead in it tracks by 30 contracts
Icebergs ordertype? Or the other technique I'm not sure what they call it but something like refreshing or reloading the bid/offer?
You seem like the type that would highly reccomend watching something like Jigsaw for many many hours and from that would be able to learn to use the microstructure and OF to make trades. While Ive heard a lot of people saying that doesnt work anymore like it used to.

Yes, i think these types of algos that are driving these funds can be made by a guy with a basic knowledge of a particular trading edge. Maybe one from a textbook for retail traders combined with some stats work a few Saturdays in a row would be good enough and then some money to feed the monster you've created. The emotion has been taken out. For me waiting for a trend is daft. They should have something that trades ranges too.

Id imagine manage futures guys are looking at what commercials are doing and also what open interest numbers are to help look for trends.

Most of the financial salesman dont know what the fuck they are selling. Thats true whether they with a client are at their favourite whore house in the City or in some pensioners lounge.

>Id imagine manage futures guys are looking at what commercials are doing and also what open interest numbers are to help look for trends.
That's actually what I have been interested in for awhile, and I even posted charts including these earlier. Can you think of anything else that would go along with this like x week highs/lows or MAs? I think the idea of looking at what the commercials are doing is very interesting. Do you think there is anything wrong with a retail level small trader trying to look at what the commercials are doing?

>How do you know?
Ive been told, many times by other traders who used to work the pits and moved to electronic. If you email the CME they may tell you. Im sure its not secret, but cant be for certain.

>Jigsaw

I have been a user of Jigsaw for years, and know Pete from before he set it up. He is a great bloke and a very knowledgeable on the inner workings of the exchanges.

>Icebergs ordertype?
In this instance it was order. Wham! Market stops dead then turns and doesnt look back.

Icebergs can been seen as a price area, maybe one level or a few where they just keep absorbing and absorbing whatever is thrown until a winner is declared.

Check out www.demoinvestor.com

Work in progress... but it lets you do demo trading. You can trade in a simulated market using fake money and you can reset your balance any time. Great for practicing if you are new or want to try out a new strategy. Also fun for just messing around.

You can also see how you do compared to other investors... there is a leader board of all users.

>I even posted charts including these earlier

Yes, even though it wasn't labelled as such, i have created similar charts many times.

You could use a 200 MA and trade the few times a year price bounces and make a killing.

>x week highs/lows or MAs?

Weekly opens. Previous week high/low/open/ test. Day weekly high occurs on most. Day weekly open is tested most. Is there a mean reversion back to weekly open... Follow @Trader_Dante He comes out with good stuff.

I have to go, nice talking, good luck with your endeavors. Keep it simple.

>demoinvestor
I checked the archive and there is someone on biz saying that they programmed this. So is this a biz creation?

Thank you

>Thank you

np, i like these guys a lot too. Brannigan is one of the best to explain orders on a price ladder.

youtube.com/watch?v=4OAsnYcNQmI

with this massive rise of crypto lately
(specifically bank / forex designed ones like ripple)

do you think shorting the USD long term is a good play?
if you are betting on cryptos becoming the new world reserve currency

is this just a silly pipedream

I really don't know, a much more effective use of that money would just be to long hold on crypto itself, mainly eth. Your posts in that thread about walls were very interesting.

>walls
Different terminology for some of the stuff discussed earlier.

Update as of 7:30ish London 5/31

From a quick glance spooz (ESM17) looks like it will move to the upside in the London session potentially rising up close to the 2414 area before retesting the 2408 area potentially in the NY session

Pull back looks quite possible here in the next couple days
Crude (CLN17) looks likes it has found minor support and may push slightly upwards after briefly hitting the $49 area
Godspeed.

Finance new fag here; What kind of gains are to be made on the stock markets ? What about other markets ? Where do most people start ?

Yup, I created it

>What kind of gains are to be made on the stock markets ?
pretty much no limits in either direction

typically you start with owning stocks of a large company, which is boring as fuck and will never make you rich. S&P500 has averaged like 8-9% annualized returns the past 10 years. you can't beat the S&P500 without luck or inside information (inb4 faggots disagree)

stocks of companies with a small market cap can sometimes make you rich but it's unlikely. they're the shitcoins of the stock market

other products than stocks, like futures, forwards and options can give you extremely high returns but obviously come with higher risk

also forget day trading. there's pretty much zero chance you'll profit from it in the long run

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simple rule

when stocks are high, dollar is low

>makes a FOREX thread on this fucking board
top lel bruh

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