USD to CAD

Holy fucking shit.

It dropped another cent since I posted here.

That literally means losing $100 for every $10,000 I exchange.

wtf.

This is the risk you take when you negotiate a contract in a foreign currency.

Why were you too dumb to consider this?

Now you have to keep your USD until the Canadian housing bubble blows up

Well, technically I will still be fine as long as it stays above 1.2x - it will still be worth it.

btw I just sold my apartment in Vancouver for $330K

Do you think I should wait for the bubble to burst before buying again? Or will the market keep growing and I will be fucked?

You did good by getting out, senpai.

>having multiple purposes makes something less valuable
this is why you are here and not currently driving a lambo

Seriously though, what are the chances of a bubble burst?

My uncle keeps bringing up this logic: There are 10's of thousands of immigrants coming to BC every year. It's basic economics - demand is high as fuck, so prices will keep going up.

While in the long term I'm sure he is right, but I understand that bubble bursts do happen, and don't see why it wouldn't in BC.

Thoughts?

I get paid in USD as well. I miss the extra 40%.

Feels bad man

Everyone buying real estate is way overleveraged. There are not 10s of thousands of immigrants who all have 7 figures they're ready to tie up in an unstable illiquid casino market, and if SHTF the ones who do will absolutely pull out.

Having said this, I know people who sold their homes ten years ago because "we're obviously in a bubble that's going to pop any day now" and have been renting since. Timing the market is hard.

Having said this, OP, you did a good job negotiating this contract now while Sunny Days is PM. Come 2019 we'll get O'Leary and the loonie will recover a bit, but meanwhile it'll be depressed. And ultimately we're tied to oil so there's only so much it can recover.

What you're seeing now is just volatility, I can't see any good reason for it except that the US markets have been on fire while the Canadian ones haven't, so people are rebalancing. I'd just eat it if I were you, you're not a currency speculator and you'll lose money trying to be one. Better luck with your next contract.

BTW, I have something of the opposite problem of the OP. I moved to the US as soon as the Supreme Ski Instructor took power and have been living and working here since. I don't care about the exchange rate for my current income, since I'm not planning to leave anytime soon, but in the meanwhile my Canadian nest egg has taken a massive shit. I would love for the loonie to come back up to par so I could finally move my assets across the border with me.

Well, looks like one of us will be fucked in 4 months and the other very happy. Fair enough.

Yeah. I bought my apartment 5 years ago for $205K. Sold it last week for $330K. Not bad.

My uncle however bought his house for $900K and sold it a few months ago for $2.2M and retired. Oh well...

Anyway, I would love the bubble to burst. It will be a dream come true. I will be able to buy land on this island that I'm renting on right now (Bowen Island).

>My uncle however bought his house for $900K and sold it a few months ago for $2.2M and retired

Yeah, the folks 20-30 years older than us are doing quite well. My dad is similar. But he's Gen X and has generally been shit on by the boomers even more than I have, so I'm not too bitter.

> I will be able to buy land on this island that I'm renting on right now (Bowen Island).

Nice! I wouldn't worry about that, that's an awesome plan if you do it any time in the next 20 years, and I expect we'll have a pop in the next 5. The rest of the world is unwinding their cheap money and Canada has no choice but to follow. I read the Financial Post every day and it sounds like the consumer debt situation in Canada is an unprecedented shitshow, nobody can afford their mortgage rates going up.

> I expect we'll have a pop in the next 5.

Yeah but I hate to keep my money in the bank. I'm more hoping for a pop in the next 3-5 months. Otherwise I gotta buy. Don't want to fall behind the market in case it doesn't burst.

Also I'm planning to live in the property I buy on this island. So if I buy and shit hits the fan, I will be fine because the market will eventually recover.

Best case scenario for me is a burst soon so I buy at the lowest time.

If you want real estate exposure buy some REITs. Look into Dream Global (DRG.UN) or Dream Office (D.UN i think?), though the latter was pretty exposed to Calgary after oil collapsed and has been having a bad time since.

Honestly if I were you I'd just buy the Big 5 banks while I was waiting. They're very liquid, yielding 3-5%, and will weather any storm. Or at least, they'll recover after any storm.
You make a good point about having to live somewhere, and if you're planning to stay then in some sense you don't care about the market, but it's demoralizing to be paying off an underwater mortgage.

>tfw holding maple pesos
Feels shit man

>it's demoralizing to be paying off an underwater mortgage.

Yeah, that's what I hope to avoid.

May the invisible hands of the market, the lord and savior, Kek the great burst the BC housing market.

FX markets are pricing in the BOC expected rate hike next weds.

fundamentally, the CAD has a lower int rate than the USD. strictly in terms of a potential carry trade, you'd want to buy USD.

also with oil prices heading lower, you would expect the CAD to worsen against the USD. as it had been doing until the BOC governor started talking about rate hikes.

i hope my position in another pair exits soon, i want to long USD/CAD. this market reaction is completely overdone.

why would you ever hold monopoly money in the first place? the country is run by a feminist drama teacher for fucks sake

You have American clients that are going to Pay in USD you fucking idiot. The dropping cad value doesnt mean shit to you aslong as you man up and get your clients to pay you in USD

It's useful if you live in Canadistan. And I remember 2008 and 2009 when Helicopter Ben was printing USD out the wazoo, while we had Harper and Carney, I was very glad to have my pile of loonies.

I live in Canadistan. I spend in CAD.

So as I'm receiving USD from my contracts, I exchange them to CAD.

As USD to CAD goes lower, I get less $$ for the same amount I'm receiving from my clients.

Question is, will CAD go weak again? Or am I fucked as USD gets weaker and CAD gets stronger?

that was all china

new china law say no capital flight anymore

lots of stats show cuckland re market slowing down

do research

so mich evidence

good odds market will have a crash or correction

you sold at great time

just wait

kek

Sounds like you are gambling not investing.

Do you know anything about futures or derivatives desu. You can hedge out the risk by taking out a futures contract, thats what they are designed for

Sounds like I need to grab an Economy 101 book and educate myself. I'm ignorant as fuck when it comes to economy. Been learning a lot recently but still don't know nearly enough.

No probs user, nothing wrong in not knowing something if you're willing to learn! If you're happy with the current exchange rate (minus fees and spread from opening a futures contract) you can buy the right to exchange the canadian dollars into usd at a future point in time. Excellent way of mitigating the risk for a small price. This is hedging, everything else is just speculation! Not that anythings wrong with speculation but that is probably outside the scope of your business so best just to minimize your risk

>CAD
That's what you get for investing in shitcoins. It'd not even on the major exchanges

i thenk yobit hes it

look at this article made in 2016 and they ALREADY started building ontop of lougheed mall 1 month ago, i can walk out my house and see dozens of construction cranes they are literally finishing these towers within 2 years im not even kidding. also lougheed is literally asian city as i see only asians around here and every store is owned by an asian

vancitybuzz.com/2016/03/lougheed-town-centre-redevelopment-2/

Charge bitcoin and be thankful you live in the 21st century

My apartment that I sold last week was very close to Lougheed Mall. Located at Salish Court.

WHOO! I'm rich!

I 500x shorted 1.298 usdcad on a hunch that it was going to doom hard and soon.

At the time of my post its at 1.287 and I just tripled my money!

Too bad that money consisted of $10. But hey, gotta start somewhere.

Wow, I haven't been to Lougheed since I was going to SFU five years ago.

It was depressing as fuck to live there. I'm so happy that I left a year ago.

buy some kneepads while you can still afford them

what made it so depressing

Everyone in Vancouver is gray and quiet and sad because it's so fucking rainy and expensive, and Lougheed is full of Asian students so they're extra gray and quiet and sad.

Plus there's nothing to do, the only bar is Foggy Dew, which is boring as shit and expensive. "The Shadow" used to be nearby which was a student bar but it went out of business a couple years ago.

People with no souls. Dead eyes. No smiles. Crime.

Cops killed someone right in front of me a year ago. Also a stabbing happened. So much shit.

Man the homeless situation here is absolutely fucked. The area by Stadium/Chinatown has an seniors home (for old Asians) literally a block away from some of the nastiest alleys I've ever seen. There's a park close to that skytrain station that has squads of junkies sleeping and using in broad daylight, while little kids are playing soccer on the field. I wanna get out of here as fast as possible man, what you said about people with no souls and dead eyes is spot on

If you work from home like me, get out of the mainland. Sunshine Coast or parts of Vancouver Island are great places to live. I much more prefer having peaceful hippy neighbors than grumpy soulless ones who hate their own lives.

I'm going to Langara for Comp sci right now, but I'm probably gonna drop out and look for software/web dev work and eventually try to either find remote work or move to Toronto or Montreal. I'm planning to learn Solidity to see if I can cash in on the crypto hype and maintain some shit coins for someone online lol

This is why accounting gods invented cash flow hedges. See if you can buy some derivative contracts with a time limit close to the end of your contract.

love the soros boogeyman

bumping, I'm thinking about giving OP some serious advise.

someone has already told him to kill himself

I'm back.

I'm going to turn on AirVPN though so I won't be able to respond for 30-60 mins.

I will monitor the thread in the meanwhile.

I'm not quite sure the best way to articulate but essentially is something you should consider.
You expected to be owned about $68,000 USD and so you expect to sell 68000USD in exchange for tbd ammount of CAD in the future. So you could look at futures contracts because with futures you can sell something in the future right now. Problem for you is getting the rigth size hedge because cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/canadian-dollar_contract_specifications.html you see each contract is for 100000CAD. There is a emicro which is 10000CAD but it's very illiquid cmegroup.com/trading/fx/e-micros/e-micro-canadian-dollar-us-dollar_contract_specifications.html

It's basically like you're sitting in the spot forex market with a open position in USDCAD of size 6 mini plus 8 micro lots. For each mini contract a one pip move is $1 and for each micro contract a one pip move is $.10 so for every pip that's $6.8 and btw each pip is $0.0001 and a cent is 100 pips

sign up for a us bank account at RBC, tell us how it goes, it's pretty simple, no need to do all of this complex forex stuff, just accept the USD as it is.

futures.io/beginners-introductions/38369-newbie-tasked-hedging-currency-risk-foreign-investment.html
futures.io/psychology-money-management/25206-hedging.html
forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2444
forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=149614

futures.io/commodities-futures-trading/34994-crude-oil-hedging.html

Yeah but what if USD to CAD bounces back up in a couple of months? Say goes up to 1.45 versus 1.28 now. If I buy derivative contracts and this happens, then I will be fucked.

I have actually been doing this (with CIBC though). Money goes to my USD account. Then I exchange with a good rate (they match Charliesexchange rate) every time it hits +$10K.

Would you be comfortable sitting in a long term position trade of 6 mini contracts while the market is screaming against your position?

No, you'll be hedged. You lose money on the futures contract but make the same amount of money in spot.

You said you wanted to learn more about this stuff and since currency is abstract maybe it would be easier to learn more about this thinking in terms of something more concrete like lets say you're a farmer planting a crop and you're going to harvest it and sell it in a few months.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_(finance)
>A typical hedger might be a commercial farmer. Based on current prices and forecast levels at harvest time, the farmer might decide that planting wheat is a good idea one season, but the price of wheat might change over time. Once the farmer plants wheat, he is committed to it for an entire growing season. If the actual price of wheat rises greatly between planting and harvest, the farmer stands to make a lot of unexpected money, but if the actual price drops by harvest time, he is going to lose the invested money.
Due to the uncertainty of future supply and demand fluctuations, and the price risk imposed on the farmer, said farmer may use different financial transactions to reduce, or hedge, their risk.
>the farmer selling his wheat at a future date, he will sell short futures contracts for the amount that he predicts to harvest to protect against a price decrease. The current (spot) price of wheat and the price of the futures contracts for wheat converge as time gets closer to the delivery date, so in order to make money on the hedge, the farmer must close out his position earlier than then. On the chance that prices decrease in the future, the farmer will make a profit on his short position in the futures market which offsets any decrease in revenues from the spot market for wheat. On the other hand, if prices increase, the farmer will generate a loss on the futures market which is offset by an increase in revenues on the spot market for wheat. Instead of agreeing to sell his wheat to one person on a set date, the farmer will just buy and sell futures on an exchange and then sell his wheat wherever he wants once he harvests it

> the market is screaming against your position?

Can you elaborate more? Do you predict that since there has been a big fall in the last 2-3 weeks, it might bounce back again?

I see. This makes things complicated. I think I should just exchange when I receive my payments and not worry too much. I will be fucked only if USD to CAD goes below 1.1x

As long as USD is doing better than CAD, I'm better off working for US clients.

Great info. Thanks. I will definitely study this and educate myself more about economy.

>predict
Good fundamental info has already been posted >complicated
You would just go shop around different brokers, this is what they are there for they do this all the time, and get a quote for them to manage it for you and then decide if it's worth it to pay for a hedge. It looks like you're saying price will have to go 870 pips to get to the point where you are losing money.