Peakoil

it's nice to meet another peak-oiler, where does everyone hangout nowadays after the oil drum?

It will unironically be a good thing. Libe*alism in all its forms will finally die. No way in hell is the current system sustainable in the long term.

Honestly I stopped following the movement closely after theoildrum stopped posting new material. That also coincided with increased work and school responsibilities so I only infrequently would check out posts on Gail the Actuary's blog and look at articles on dieoff.org

One place I did check out pretty frequently is John Michael Greer's blog, thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ Which I just checked out again for the first time since early summer and apparently that has been shut down now too! Or at least moved, not sure if the old content has been reposted.

It does seem like the movement "peaked" (ha!) sometime around 2009-2011 and has been in decline ever since. I think energy related issues seem too stable right now and people (including myself to a degree) have become too complacent.

Also, living in California, the problems with water supply have become much more relevant to me than the issues of oil supply. Especially in the wake of increased fracking and natural gas production in the state.

>infinite growth
oil will just gradually get expensive until it is replaced by alternatives

Look at the panic when GDP is only 2% annually and tell me that a zero-growth economy is possible within the current economic and financial framework of the global economy. Economists have never had to deal with a zero or negative growth situation and none of their models know how to deal with it. Even Keynes' solution is to throw money at the economy until it gets back to a growth trajectory.

More free time means more creatives will create more. I'd say we may see more if not the same amount of progress in that kind of world.

I'm petroleum engineer / mining engineer. And i belive peak oil is a hoax made by drilling-oil cooperation to pump prices of good

Of goods

Sorry for my english

Great contribution, thanks.

It's still happening regardless of what fracking shills say

Pic related even the oil companies know it's coming

The low interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis have managed to keep the oil industry afloat, oil companies have been consuming massive amounts of debt to maintain production and many were barely even profitable when prices were $100 a barrel, since the crash in prices in 2014 oil companies have been hemorrhaging money but still refuse to go under, many theorize it's because they can get funding by selling junk bonds, investors keep buying the bonds because they yield 10% or whatever which is better than 2% or whenever you're going to get from government bonds, once there's another financial crisis and the oil industry can't get any funding then shit is going to hit the fan

I still read art berman's blog, our finite world, and james howard kunstler's blog, the comment sections are the best part

uhhh no. Oil is not limitless like planting food is. Malthus was wrong because he didn't forsee new agricultural techniques and the change to levels of below replacement birth in developed nations.
Oil on the other hand is limited. And alternative sources will likely be then fall under the same "birth rate lower than replacement" type usage.

>sitting around shooting the shit with our neighbors
youtube.com/watch?v=NHeSC_Ws5Ic

New agricultural techniques rely entirely on oil technology you nitiwit.

Most 1st world countries are in tacit acceptance of 2-3% per annum growth, wtf are you on about?

>Economists have never had to deal with a zero or negative growth situation and none of their models know how to deal with it

Okay you're just uneducated, lol

Are you saying no alternatives will be established?

>work in Canadian oil sands
>all the major oil companies have abandoned Alberta
>no new projects, some major projects are finishing up here soon and 10,000 workers will be laid off nowhere to go
>economy is still shitty but has stabilized at least
>my company is being kept afloat by a single company that still has money to spend
>can't even get a pipeline approved

Is this the end of the Canadian oil industry?

Is this video right?
>youtube.com/watch?v=mwoQKt2vbNY&t=11s

One can only hope so.

Does this have to do with the recent OPEC stuff where they are trying to drive the prices down to make more expensive oil operations shut down? Oklahoma has taken a hit from this aswell, our state government relies on oil revenue and our education system and state government in general are underfunded and the state government refuses to fix the budget problem because they're in love with the state oil companies.

What kind of economic courses have you been taking that state that a 0% growth rate is fine? without a growth in GDP, per capita GDP (one of the main indicators of living standards) inevitably falls in tandem with growing populations, so unless you're calling for the stagnation of all human life, and economies, in which case i know for a fact you hacen't done any economics in your life.

>peak oil
This meme again. The Permian Basin alone has a minimum of 500 years of oil in it.

aei.org/publication/we-should-view-americas-most-prolific-oil-field-the-permian-basin-as-a-permanent-near-infinite-resource/

"If Gilmer’s estimate is correct that the Permian Basin holds an additional half a trillion barrels of recoverable oil, that would be a 500-year supply of oil at the current production level, and at 2 trillion barrels, a 2,000 year supply! And if that’s an accurate forecast of Permian Basin reserves, Gilmer’s description of the Permian Basin as a “permanent, near infinite resource” makes perfect sense because the probability is pretty close to zero that we’ll be using fossil fuels even 100 years from now, much less 500 years or 2,000 years in the future."

Yes it started in 2014 with the collapse in oil prices, which was caused by US fracking rather than OPEC who just maintained steady production

We had a conservative government that was friendly to the oil industry, however they had a streak of corruption and incompetence and we basically saved no money from the oil boom, the economy went to shit and the NDP party(left wing) won the provincial elections, oil companies were worried about new regulations and on top of the expensive cost of operations in Alberta they decided to leave, it's good for Canadian oil companies I suppose because they got some sweet deals buying up their assets, but in the future it's going to be hard to expand production because they have less access to capital. I have a feeling oil companies will be crawling back due to the 5% depletion rates on conventional oil fields

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steady-state_economy

Do basic research next time before boring me with econ 101 questions lol "none of their models know how to deal with it"

>500 years
i dont see how that negates peak oil

>And if that’s an accurate forecast of Permian Basin reserves, Gilmer’s description of the Permian Basin as a “permanent, near infinite resource” makes perfect sense because the probability is pretty close to zero that we’ll be using fossil fuels even 100 years from now

lmao where do people find this garbage?

Not the "soft" version ("we will at some point run out"), but it negates the "hard" version ("we are rapidly running out and we need to start prepping").

>US energy independence

Where does this meme come from? They still need to import 50% of their oil, they're still the largest oil importer in the entire world.

>every year we find new reserves

Modern reserve finds are minuscule compared to what they were discovering in the 1930's-1960's, they require extremely high oil prices to be profitable to extract, with the collapse in oil prices there hasn't even been any exploration or discoveries since 2015, in fact it's at the lowest amount in the history of the oil industry

cnbc.com/2017/04/27/global-crude-oil-discoveries-plunge-to-record-low-and-its-gonna-get-worse.html

>Conventional crude oil discoveries totaled just 2.4 billion barrels in 2016, versus the average of 9 billion barrels in the last 15 years, according to a new report from the IEA

9 billion barrels a year discovered on average, world consumption is 30 billion barrels a year, so every year we find only 4 months worth of oil and that was with high oil prices. Once the supermajor oil fields deplete(5% a year depletion rate) there's not going to be enough new discoveries to make up for it

It's a meme that people gobble up from politicians. Because logically, you would think that having more of a resource would directly benefit, and be dispersed to, the population. In reality, the resource just gets shipped out of the country.

>but is such a world even desirable?

Of course it is. Right now thousands of semi-literate troglodytes are wasting actual tons of oil driving past my inner city apartment on a daily basis, just because they are unable to plan their lives further than the next meal, which is invariably either pizza or Chinese food, because of course they can't cook, and wouldn't if they could, because they are very busy and important people going to and from their wageslave jobs. These are the children of Ford and they exist only because of oil.

The absolute waste that our society encourages, because the amazing power that oil gives us is to be squandered to turn imbeciles into superconsumers and superbiollonaires, rather than get us off this godforsaken mental vacuum and spread our cancerous existence to the rest of space and time.

It won't really change anything, but at least with electric cars, there will be less noise and less cancer while I live out the rest of my life, made completely pointless by consumerist slavery, on this metaphorical desert island.

...

>my anecdote is better than your source
kill yourself

is this really bumplocked?

> Climate change deniers stating that oil will be around forever.

Gee I wonder (((who))) could be behind this website.

I remember following this topic around 2005.

This has been debunked.

No? Testing.

How much would loosing access to petrol affect our society outside of energy? I know that a large amount of our fertilizer uses petrol as a component, so how will the ag industry be affected? How important is petrol as a material to electronics and hardware? Would it affect our trajectory towards automation? Anything else I may be missing?

It's not that we find new reserves, its that known reserves that were a bitch to tap into are now being made economically worth it to try and get due to diminishing reserves. Nobody wanted them before because the cost of utilizing them wasn't worth it. Well now they are getting desperate. This is why fracking is such a big thing now.

>How important is petrol as a material to electronics and hardware

Anything requiring petrochemicals would be affected, particularly plastics and rubber. So yeah, electronics and computing would be fucked in the event of a disruption in petroleum supplies.

Retard here, why did the oil prices collapse if it's becoming increasingly rare?

Market manipulation behind the scenes in order to eliminate new competition by pricing them out of oil and gas exploration. Once those competitors have failed, the established players raise prices again. Pretty standard business practice in industries with monopolistic characteristics.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predatory_pricing

How much sweet crude does America have. Is it enough to propel us to Norway and Dubai wages and if so when are they going to start using it?

>Conveniently peaks at year 2000

scaremongering ideologically motivated theory, into the trash it goes!

>How much sweet crude does America have
Not nearly as much as in the past.

>Is it enough to propel us to Norway and Dubai wages and if so when are they going to start using it?

No, that only works if you have so much oil you are a net exporter. All US production barely covers half of the demands of the domestic market. Since we still have to import shittons of oil, high wages won't result.

Americans started fracking hard because the oil industry got access to low interest loans in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, they fracked too hard and there was too much supply, coincidentally oil prices started falling once the US federal reserve stopped QE in 2014

But the excess supply is close to being used up, and there's been no exploration since 2015 so oil prices will probably skyrocket sometime 2018-2020, also interest rates are going up and oil companies have massive debt burdens which will limit their future production expansion

I see. I guess I was under the impression that they hadn't tapped into all of it yet.

So... stock up on gasoline? Buy a bike?

>stock up on gasoline

Gasoline goes bad after a few months in storage, so that's a bad idea. A better one is to invest in oil futures while the prices is relatively low.

>Buy a bike?

Yes.

Electric bikes have existed for several years now.

bump

The idea of society having material progress continually is fairly recent. For most of history people were perenial they just did what their dads did and would expect their sons to carry on what they did.

Since we are going to run out of resources it is better to switch back to this world view. The current world view of infinite material progress is un sustainable.

>sent from my iPhone

>2005 : ZOMG PEAK OIL HAS ALREADY HAPPENED INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY BTFO PREPARE YOUR ANUSES
>2017: oil supply continues to increase globally, prices are lower than a decade ago, economy is still growing *crickets from PO crowd*

It's been debunked, time to move on.

>So yeah, electronics and computing would be fucked in the event of a disruption in petroleum supplies.

Does this mean robots ain't going to be takin my job?

I don't get it. The specific start has been debunked, but we are going to run out of oil at some point, aren't we?

>Scare tactics to instate a one world government, like climate change.

kek

>do you think you'd be able to live in a world where there is no progress, where we only work 4 hours a day and spend the rest of the time sitting around shooting the shit with our neighbors?
This sounds like paradise desu

Climate change and the associated wars and migrations will wreck our civilization long before we actually run out of oil, and hopefully me and anyone I care about will be dead before either of those things happen. I'm not holding out hope though.

"Peak Demand" has been written a lot about lately--the idea that demand for Oil is going to peak in the next few decades and start to fall well before current reserves are in jeopardy of being exhausted. Already we see fossil fuels like coal being phased out across the western world and China & India (the two countries whose FF demand is projected to increase the most) have embarked on some of the world's most ambitious alternative energy schemes--China is far and away the world's greatest producer of 'clean energy' and is trying to accelerate that trend.

Peak oil seems to be falling into the same pitfalls as Malthusianism.

Bump for OPEC did nothing wrong

bump because I know nothing about oil

What a waste of quads.

You have a bucket of oil. It comes out of the ground like water. How much is it worth? How do you get people to pay more for the oil than for the water?

You tell them that the supply is running out, and the price will skyrocket in the near future.

It's worked for 100 years, and it will continue to work, so long as people think oil is "fossil fuel".

Protip: Oil is found at twice the depth of any fossil.

Twice.

They literally didn't though. In the energy business, its kill, or be killed.

Coal can be made in several years with organic mats buried in dirt.

Daily reminder that Matthew Simmons was killed to cover up the true extent of the 2010 BP oil spill.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Simmons#Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill_conjectures

>Simmons was found dead on August 8, 2010, in his hot tub.[21] An autopsy by the state medical examiner’s office the next day concluded that he died from accidental drowning with heart disease as a contributing factor.[22]

Remember when you were told that the BP oil "disaster" would be consumed by the ocean without a trace?

Did you notice that actually happened?

Frack is whack!

yeah, good luck creating a hadron collider in that free time of yours you stupid fuck

>so long as people think oil is "fossil fuel"
But it is. Do you really think that the name means people believe it's literally made out of fossils?

>Protip: Oil is found at twice the depth of any fossil. Twice.
That's because it's made of algae which died long before organisms large enough to create fossils existed.

If you don't believe that it's made of dead ancient organisms, then what is crude oil made from in your expert opinion?

Peak phosphorus is the only relevant peak.
If you are reading this, you will suffer the consequences of peak phosphorus.

What do they use phosphorous for and how important is it?

I misread the OP at first glance and thought it said "peak loli" and was really worried for a second then read it again and now I don't care.

Just google it, n*****

Hell no the oil sand operations are down to $27/ barrel break even. They need high prices to expand AND pay out business as usual.

google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.3824106

Are petrochemicals used in any electronic/computer parts outside of the plastic casings/structure? Is it used in the computer itself? I can't seem to find anything on google.

>peak anything

Stupid. If price is allowed to be free we will never run out of oil or anything else.

Doesn't matter, even if they don't use petrochemicals directly the entire transportation network is powered by oil

In the modern globalized economy supply chains are extremely long and complex

>Doesn't matter, even if they don't use petrochemicals directly the entire transportation network is powered by oil
Wouldn't this be mitigated or at least temporary when electric cars become more widely utilized?

Phosphates are key in fertilizers. A field with phosphates can outproduce a field without phosphates by up to 300% as much.

That graph is a little misleading. US domestic oil production is at an all time high of about 10 million barrels a day.

It was clearly put there by God 6000 years ago. Not a fossil at all but rather Satan's bile bubbling up from the depths of hell.

Prove it. That's definitely false if you are looking at crude oil only, not including everything else.

right, fair enough

did you notice the billions of dollars that was spent on the clean up and insurance costs?

Nah it was mainly the microbes in the gulf. There was some dispersal agents put in but they may not have done much. The amount that was leaked was actually around the total amount that annually seeps naturally into the gulf.

>The amount that was leaked was actually around the total amount that annually seeps naturally into the gulf.

This is bullshit and you know it. If that were the case the gulf coast would constantly look like this.

Look it up. You won't believe anything I post so look it up. There is a huge amount of oil that seeps naturally.