When do you think Japan officially lost the upper hand in the war in The Pacific...

When do you think Japan officially lost the upper hand in the war in The Pacific? Or do you think Japan never had the war in their favor at all? Or do you think Japan was always winning?

Midway is rightfully considered the turning point. The destruction of the Japanese carrier fleet at Midway made it impossible for the Japanese navy to threaten Hawaii in any meaningful way.

But did Japan really ever have a chance to beat the US before Midway?

>Or do you think Japan never had the war in their favor at all?
This.

The Japanese fleet never had the chance to "threaten Hawaii in any meaningful way" about 2 weeks after Pearl Harbor when they reinforced the land garrison and the airbase. Carrier based aviation is at a serious disadvantage when facing land based aviation, and you didn't get a U.S. attempt to challenge Japanese islands directly without their own land based aviation until the Gilbert Islands campaign, which featured 6 fleet carriers, 6 light carriers, and 8 escort carriers, which between them could throw up 901 planes. The Japanese never mustered a force comparable to that, and couldn't even if they decisively won at Midway.

not really. read the rising son to get a good perspective on japans desperation as they tried diplomacy over and over again with Hull before finally realizing their military was sapping oil reserves by the day. if japan was more decisive and firm during their expansionist period they might have been able to fight a purely defensive war to keep their territories. lots of mistakes.

Japan literally depended on USA for oil. The Japs lost the war at Pearl Harbor. The only way was if they had a much superior navy than USA and could conquer Indochina to get oil. The problem is that they didn't have the industry to support their navy in a long-term war against the USA.

>"japan dindu nuffin should not have been embargo'ed"-posters inbound in 5,4,3..."

The Japanese were in deep shit since the beginning of the Shouwa Era, but they lost the War at Midway.

No. They never intended to get entangled in a real war. They had just hoped to give America enough of a scare to stop emargoing them and meddling in their regional affairs. Those that advocated the sneak attack thought, since America was a democracy where anti-war sentiment was at an all time high, it wouldn't have to stomach for a real conflict.

They thought wrong, and there were those among them who warned them of that inevitability. They all knew, however, that if it were to come to blows, Japan stood no chance. They had merely hoped that what America had in strength, it lacked in will.

>They had merely hoped that what America had in strength, it lacked in will.
Well, nips sure did their best to give Americans the will to wipe out every Japanese from the face of the Earth.

If the Japanese Fleet had achieved a favorable (for the Japanese) result at Midway, it would have opened up the possibility of a second attack on Pearl Harbor, which would have put the US Navy in a very bad position. This is especially true if Japanese battleships were brought in to bombard Hawaii during the night.

Yep, the Japanese made the classic strategic mistake of assuming that their enemies are subhuman retards who couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.

>If the Japanese Fleet had achieved a favorable (for the Japanese) result at Midway, it would have opened up the possibility of a second attack on Pearl Harbor
No it wouldn't have, because the land based air force in Hawaii is too strong to overcome. Even if you bring in the entire Japanese fleet, you're just giving the Americans more targets. You need LOTS of carrier airpower to suppress even a small island air garrison, and the Japanese didn't have what it took to mount an assault against the kind of resistance Hawaii could put up by mid 42, even with no assistance whatsoever from the USN.

well, they had spent the last 5 years doing bayonet practice on poorly armed and unorganized Chinese peasants, so that might have helped set their expectations

Was there enough oil in Asia in British and dutch Indonesia/Malaysia to keep Japan going without American oil if they conquered it all?

Oh yeah. They were getting enough from the NEI to keep them going. It's one of the reasons they were willing to sacrifice their fleet at Leyte Gulf; if they lose the Philippines, they can no longer ship the oil back to Japan, at which point the fleet is worthless anyway. The DEI was producing about 55 million barrels a year, and IIRC, the greatest point of Japanese oil expenditure during the war was around 30 million barrels.

Funny thing is, so did the Americans.
The Japanese didn't realize that the average American was turbo-racist.
So when news broke out that they had been suddenly attacked by a bunch of buck-toothed, slant-eyed, near-sighted monkeys, they flew into a berserk rage, which was the exact opposite result the Japanese had intended.

2 hours and 13 minutes later and nothing, pleasantly surprised.
The only retards optimistic enough to think that Japan could come out of a war with the United States in a favorable position was the Japanese high command itself.

A shame that they couldn't get it without having to take the phillipines, we might have been able to avoid war if that were the case.

Japan's only chance was mounting a surprise landing on Hawaii. Yes, it has like .0001% chance of success, but still better than what they did which had 0% chance.

>A shame that they couldn't get it without having to take the phillipines, we might have been able to avoid war if that were the case.
US wanted the war and you are deluded if you think otherwise.

Sure they did, Hideki.

Before they attacked Pearl Harbor.

more like a .000002% vs. a .000001%

I mean its still twice the chance of success.

made it 3 hours and 3 minutes before , honestly kinda surprised as well

Not to mention fucking up an amphibious assault and getting everyone kill has the added benefit of not filling your enemy with rage. The war ends much quicker and cleaner, and Japan gets away with giving up overseas territories and paying reparations or something.

Honestly, the best thing for them would just be to throw everything (army, navy and air force) into one big suicidal attack that gets everyone killed, so the war ends in about 3 months before the Americans can start firebombing and nuking japan.

>so the war ends in about 3 months before the Americans can start firebombing and nuking japan.
So early 1945?

kek

M I D W A Y

Japan never had a chance to win. It had failed to secure its hinterlands fully so it had to direct huge amounts of its military power to controlling its holdings in south east Asia, let alone the pacific. Furthermore, Japan's industrial capacity was far below that of the United States. Not only is it less capable, its more vulnerable, as there are hostile countries near Japan that could/did host US forces, including bombers, that allowed strikes on the Japanese homeland from a very early stage of the war. They were too outmatched, they had no chance.

>When did the Japs lose the upper hand
Quite literally as their planes approached Hawaii and not a single carrier was in port.

People always like to say Midway, even though the Japs got utterly curbstomped because of the above. Losing some battleships, cruisers and destoyers definitely hurt the USN, but carriers are a fleets power projection. The other ship types can be rebuilt in time, evident by American industrial power and bouncing back fairly quick.

Had the Japanese actually caught the American carriers, they would have had free reign in the Pacific for alot longer an dmaybe work a diplomatic solution out. There is just no way Japan would ever surmount the industrial capacity or match the technology and tactics the Americans were employing.

If they had left the Americans alone, and just attacked the bongs and clogfucks, they might have got away with it absent US involvement. But the US will destroy Japan 100% of the time if they get involved.

What was going on in the Japanese heads when they came up with Pearl Harbor? Had they even talked to an American before? Did they never like, watch a cowboy movie? You know, that figure who was the american's cultural heroic archetype at the time, the guy who is a loner and lives by his own hands but is willing to defend the weak and to dispense justice to aggressors and evil doers? In what fucking world was America not gonna get pissed and fight back?

That makes sense in theory but I guess having the American Phillipines constantly sitting right on the oil supply line was too much of a risk to ignore

>Had the Japanese actually caught the American carriers, they would have had free reign in the Pacific for alot longer an dmaybe work a diplomatic solution out
There would be no free reign. Only 2 carriers could feasibly have been at Pearl on dec 7 1941, that still leaves 3 available. Besides once Japan got as far south as PNG, landbased air became too big of a barrier.

So Japan attacks pearl harbor again, some how manages to get an amazing victory, sinks the majority of the US fleet even.
It still doesn't matter, the US can replace those sailors and those ships.
From 1941 to 1945 the United States built over Six thousand military ships, including over 20 Aircraft Carriers.
You are greatly underestimating american industry at the time.

Real-life isn't an RTS. If you lose all your experienced sailors and naval officers, you can't just pull new experienced personnel out of your ass. And people aren't going to be rushing out to volunteer if they're hearing that your fleet just go annihilated. It would have been a major humiliation for the US government, especially since most Americans during this time period were likely to view Japanese as racially inferior. A Japanese victory at Midway would have had a comparable effect on the United States as the Battle of Tsushima had on Russia in 1905.

Japan thought Hitler was going to win, and in 1941 that seemed like a very real possibility. Japan thought that they were joining the winning team. Or at least, they hoped that the Allied Powers would have to devote so many resources to fighting Hitler and Mussolini that there would be nothing left to fight Japan. Even so, most IJN officers understood that this was a huge gamble to be making, and many voiced opposition to the Pearl Harbor operation. However, nearly all of them fell into line once the war began. As soon as the shooting started, those who had advocated against the war quickly jettisoned their concerns and devoted themselves to the cause of securing victory at all cost.

They never stood a chance, the main reason being IJAs and IJNs autistic inter-rivalry

>If you lose all your experienced sailors and naval officers, you can't just pull new experienced personnel out of your ass
Agree
>And people aren't going to be rushing out to volunteer if they're hearing that your fleet just go annihilated. It would have been a major humiliation for the US government, especially since most Americans during this time period were likely to view Japanese as racially inferior. A Japanese victory at Midway would have had a comparable effect on the United States as the Battle of Tsushima had on Russia in 1905.
Disagree, I think Americans would've been fucking pissed even more so than they were irl and would've came out in droves. Americans, for all the shitposting on the internet, are a fairly indomitable people who tend to not take things lying down, even from ourselves.

>you can't just pull new personnel out of your ass
What the fuck do you think the US navy did immediately after pearl harbor and for the next four fucking years? We went from 791 active ships in 41 to 6084 in 45

And you do not lose 100% of a crew when a ship sinks.

>If you lose all your experienced sailors and naval officers, you can't just pull new experienced personnel out of your ass
You don't lose your sailors and especially officers when you lose ships at anchor.

>It would have been a major humiliation for the US government, especially since most Americans during this time period were likely to view Japanese as racially inferior.
US suffered actual major humiliations (such as the fucking Pearl Harbor attack) yet lived through it.

> A Japanese victory at Midway would have had a comparable effect on the United States as the Battle of Tsushima had on Russia in 1905.
No it would not. Russian navy did not have 30+ capital ships already procured and several merely months away from launching.

>They never stood a chance, the main reason being IJAs and IJNs autistic inter-rivalry
IJA and IJN could've been of literal one mind and it wouldn't have made a lick of difference.