This is not the first time that Bitcoin price has risen faster than the network useage...

This is not the first time that Bitcoin price has risen faster than the network useage. Soon the cycle will repeat again.

Other urls found in this thread:

blockchain.info/charts
zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-02/coinbase-adds-record-100000-bitcoin-traders-one-day
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

yes, right after the fork is what the majority believe here

nice graph btw, where did you get it?

source of the chart?

made it myself using the data from blockchain.info/charts
Number of transactions is transformed to network value by a Metcalfe like power law.

Great job!

Doing this now on my own to verify... but looks good

Lol the fist price collapse was entirely because of the collapse of MtGox.

Ok, but if you disagree with me, and what's going to happen to the price when transaction rates double as a result of the 2x fork?

there is no reason for that to repeat.

btc price is a martingale and independent of network use or volume

and the price went hyperbolic before the GOXening because fake USD were buying up BTC with bots on the exchange..

hmm sounds familiar (((tether)))

This is the good shit that we need on Veeky Forums keep up the good work OP!

Could you make a similar chart of Ethereum?

Sure. Metcalfe states a power of 2 but however there are posts saying that it can also be smaller. I found that 1.5 as power is a pretty good power to match both Bitcoin and Ethereum charts for most timeframes. Also have to add scale factor. So I phenomenologically found 100 * tx ** 1.5 to be good. There are also other models which work but comparing tx and price speaks on all models the same language...

holy shit the transaction is stagnating
huge dump incoming. but when?

Sure. Same formula applied to Ethereum looks less troublesome.

Thanks. The correlation does seem obvious.

Stop goyim! They are not supposed to know that! We are going to $10k dollars mkay? Goys are supposed to buy at 11k bags and sell it at 1600 to me again!

This is why I sold my BTC and I'm holding ETH right now.

Log charts make it easier but they also leave out a lot of details so it is a gamble here.

well this is only half the picture. In the end value = usage + hype. So it can still go up to 10k$ and beyond ;-)... and as far as I can see the market is probably even on the verge on pulling that off. Just try not to be delusional when its time to exit. There are enough peeps outside of Veeky Forums who will sell at the bottom of the correction to buy back in.

If the fork goes well the usage could even go up again, who knows.

I noticed this too but it literally means nothing in the way bitcoin price is concerned.
Bitcoin transactions #s are capped, you literally cannot fit anymore transactions a day due to tech limitations. Thats why its been capped all of 2017. Most users do not care anyways, they buy bitcoin with the intention of selling it to another person for a higher price, not making transactions or buying things. 2x would help increase transaction capacity, this chart will become clear. When it reaches 350k that's usually when the fees are outrageous(currently $5 average)

The fees are what worries me. How could BTC possibly ever see mass adoption and replace fiat if the fees become this humongous? I'm afraid the btc bubble might pop one day when people realize it has no future as a currency.

>> Segwit almost doubled that cap

Why no increase since august?

Say hello to $2500 bitcoin for me.

I don't get it either.

Plus it's so easy for a bad actor to pump a couple of million in a project to send high fee transactions and soon a bidding war for transactions would be unleashed, skyrocketing the fees.

Scary stuff OP, but let me ask you how much does network usage of a store of value matter? I mean we can see tx is well below price there but then I look at 24h volume and I don't even know if I've ever seen it this high up around 4.5bn, which are the real transactions we should care about for a store of value? which do we care about for gold? For it makes more sense, if people are finding eth useful they're using the network in some way, to find BTC useful we just sit on it which we is what we would expect considering deflationary

>This is why I sold my BTC and I'm holding ETH right now.

Segwit adoption is low, only 11%. It would require full adoption to double the blocksize so now blocksize is around 1.1mb

I'm about to do this

What is your criticism of it? I'll get back into BTC after it inevitably corrects

That's correct I guess. Therfore I would phase it like this: the network usage gives you an estimate of the total bottom if at some point something bad happens and the notion "store of value" is forgotten for a while... bad things tend to happen sooner or later in this space.

It's a valid fucken play if you are to assume alt money is going to shlosh back in, or BTC sticks the price and we have another round of 'next bitcoins', the only other real outcome is BTC drops and crushes everything below in which case fiat is your spot.

Yeah and fair enough, it is demonstrated on the chart there

hey this makes sense actually

ETH is supposed to be used
BTC is supposed (or has become that) to be a store of value, so no point in moving it around

>BTC is supposed (or has become that) to be a store of value, so no point in moving it around
Issuing being it's garbage at that too due to slow transactions and massive fees.

>One Bitcoin Transaction Now Uses as Much Energy as Your House in a Week
Satoshi's vision. The throughput of a McDonalds till combined with the efficiency of an unregulated Chinese coal plant.

they're faster than bank transfers and the fees aren't that high if you have a decent amount of it
as I said, "store of value"

>so no point in moving it around

This is a reason why currency is generally inflationary intentionally, and raises questions about BTCs future as a global currency or whatever, basically if you could just sit on it and it could grow nobody would ever use it, so how can it really grow? Maybe that's what the chart is showing us

Well a technology that can act as both a decentralized store of value and a currency will take over a mere decentralized store of value, hence why bitcoin cash will take over bitcoin

the selling of alts looks coordinated, like the biggest holders sold simultaneously across exchanges to continue bitcoin's run. i would think to acquire enough alts to manipulate the market like this they would need to have relationships with developers of these projects. if money doesn't flow back into alts they would be burning bridges and creating lots of enemies. it doesn't make sense to think these groups would be able to function in this landscape if they kept all their profits.

finally some insight on biz, thanks man

enormously faster and cheaper than an international fiat tx, but not as instant and free as moving to accounts locally within the same institution

Slow is a relative term. BTC is hundreds of times faster and cheaper than a bank wire, while having the liquidity to allow larger institutional participants to use it without severely disrupting price

Guess I'll have to agree, but I'd rather pay some chinese miner to move my money than a bank

Invest in IOTA

ETH hasn't seen $400 in months. Fuck ETH.

also, could u extrapolate predictions when can we expect correction price?

maybe that has something to do with projects that collected ridiculous amounts during ICO's?

>looks coordinated
all i can think is even it wasn't it would look coordinated anyway, BTC has for the most part always been the coordinator and has a huge moon mission going on with all the shilling and boogeymen to back it up, this isn't like catching a few neets out with DGB memes, this gets everyones attention and a lot of this market will just chase the green and suck new money in with them

when? who knows when. Tomorrow, in a week, in a month, in a year. When Donald Trump decides to tweet that he wants to ban Bitcoin? Who knows what triggers the stop of this run. There's always something.

However what I find interesting is that Ethers usage price at the moment tends to rise to the 400$ valuation (which it never had before). So if the transaction number doesn't decrease again and the model doesn't break, people in Ether might at least leave 300$ behind them... but 'when' is always only known afterwards.

me too user

shhh ETHlets literally can't understand how the thing which caused the massive run-up for ETH (smart contracts paired with ICOs) are the thing which ultimately caused its downfall.

it's kinda nice, really, because the last 9 months straight+ have been ICO after ICO fleecing people while bitcoin keeps going higher. ethereum has been kind of a scam jupiter, pulling all the pajeets with the slicker designs into its ecosystem and containing them there so they can keep making thousands of trash ERC tokens without making yet another scrpyt shit coin like before

I almost prefer it this way, let ETH be the black dog known for facilitating millions losing money in outright scams. gets BTCs muh darkweb reputation to look a little silly in comparison.

Price overshot and settled, wouldn't really call that a downfall, maybe there is one to come though, and lets not underestimate the EEAs part in the launch

doesn't matter if some cocksucker pajeet gets 10,000+ free ETH thrown at them by retards on Veeky Forums and dumps it on the open market at the first green candle.

this is what i'm seeing too.

Isn't helping any upward movement but it has hung on fairly well, I don't know if the worst of the ICOs has passed yet, possibly not as the normies havn't really come for those yet

Is this going to mess up my ZAP investment
or will it go 10x?
zap.store

That's really slick OP. Thank you for sharing

In other news, coinbase added 100,000 users JUST FUCKING YESTERDAY

source?

Any advice on how to make those charts?

OP from mobile here. Basically I used python and downloaded the data using the api of those sites. Then I did the transformation and plot using numpy and matplotlib. I can upload the source code tomorrow if it's still a topic

1. Look at coinbases' numbers yourself.
OR

zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-02/coinbase-adds-record-100000-bitcoin-traders-one-day

I'd like that. Would you do me a favour and make the title something you'll post here now? So I can easily search for it. Really interested, thanks.

Ok I'll post with the title: marketcap analysis by transaction number source code. Probably on around 10 hours at work hehe

I'll keep a lookout tomorrow. Thanks.

that article is complete fucking nonsense

You're a fucking idiot OP.

I can just as easily put the red line below. Because transactions and dollars are completely different units and can be scaled any way.

Don't fall for the low effort pajeet FUD.