I am fascinated by historical pandemics. Disease can spread so easily...

I am fascinated by historical pandemics. Disease can spread so easily, especially with modern travel and crowding in urban areas. What would the casualty rate be if a mutated virus as deadly as the Bubonic plague popped up in India tomorrow?

Pic is from the Spanish flu in 1918-20. It killed 3-5% of the world's population, and dropped the US average life expectancy by 12 years. It was particularly deadly among young people with strong immune systems (as the immune defense takes a huge toll on the body).

The first, relatively mild wave of the disease was recorded as early as 1917 in Europe and the USA. In August of 1918 the virus mutated to become much more severe; patients would die within days or even hours of first showing symptoms. The sick were cramped in hospital units which accelerated the rate of infection, and transport of WWI troops facilitated the spread across the world. Survivors of the first wave were immune to the second, so they wouldn't show symptoms but could easily spread the disease through contact.

It always amazes me how much of a fucking nightmare the western world was at the start of the 20th century.
WW1 killed millions of adult men, then the flu killed millions more back home. Then the depression happened, crops in the US were destroyed in the dustbowl and millions more died or were displaced.
It's no wonder there was such a surge in religious evangelism, I'm sure if I were living back then I'd be convinced that the damn world was ending too

rahter unrelated but your pic reminded me of syphilitics losing their nose and having to do something similar to this.

"Knick" tv show which is set during these times had a woman like this, watching how they treated it then medically and socially was harrowing.

Well you have to consider that the Bubonic Plague is far from extinct, and an average of ~600 cases are reported around the world every year. Not including outbreaks in countries like Madagascar.
However, the plague CAN be treated by anti-biotics in the modern era, and with these there is only a 10% fatality rate, this may sound like a lot, but it's really not. Even myself, personally, I had a medical condition that was ~35% casualty.

However, if a mutated version of the Bubonic Plague popped up, that was as deadly as the ancient one.. It would be the apocalypse.

If I had to give an estimate i'd say it'd kill at the very least 20% of humans, at the least, maybe even upwards of 80%.
These numbers are absurdly large, and it would cause humanity to go into a de facto dark ages. As the lack of working population would cause tremendous strain on the global economy.

It seems like a pretty hopeless era, but the people that grew up back then seem to have become top citizens- hard working, community oriented, etc. I fully believe that "hard times make for strong men" idea.

Bubonic plague is of course another famous one. The spread of disease was fairly well-understood for the Spanish Flu, but doctors in the European middle ages were worth fuck-all during this.

The first wave (The Plague of Justinian) struck Byzantium in 542 AD. Emperor Justinian I himself was infected but survived. 25 million people died in a year, about 13% of the world's population.
The second wave (The Black Death) hit Europe in the 14th century, originating in Central Asia. The Mongols launched infected corpses over the walls of Kaffa, Crimea while the city was under siege. Though that may not be what actually infected them, European merchants brought the plague with them as they fled the city. This one killed 75-200 million people over about 60 years.
The third wave originated in China in the mid 19th century. It killed about 12 million people, mostly in India and China though it also made it to San Francisco and LA.

Bubonic plague still pops up from time to time, though it's currently easily cured with antibiotics.

>easily cured with antibiotics
Only if it is discovered within the first week

Only somewhat related, but my great-grandfather spent two years in the trenches and survived the 100 Days Offensive before getting Spanish flu. He was in such bad shape they just tossed him in the tent with the dead and dying. His comrades took his boots and other goodies and left him for dead. He managed to recover and moved to Canada. In the 60's he took my mom and her siblings on a trip across the country by train, and had a stroke partway through the trip. She remembers watching him in his seat, shaking and sweating. He survived that without any side effects and died of old age years later. Time was the only thing that could kill that mad lad.

>Pic is from the Spanish flu in 1918-20. It killed 3-5% of the world's population
That's still crazy to me, because that flu killed more people than both world wars combined.

I remember watching this thing on bill gates, how he wants to start a global epidemic strike force. Because u look at deaths of ww1 and there is a huge spike at the end in 1918 and it's not cause of the war. Anyway we need a really well funded power rangers/scrubs to stamp out the next Spanish flu

>The lack of working population would cause tremendous strain on the global economy

This is true, but I also wonder if it would end up as net harm or good. Peasant labor after the Black Death was more valuable than before- lower population means higher wages and lower rent. I guess it depends on what demographics actually get wiped out.