I currently have half a million in BTC, and I'm slightly in the money.
The introduction of cash-settled futures market is projected to increase volatility. I'm unsure if I should take the risk and hold, or sell now and wait for the uncertainty around futures to pass.
More importantly, I think there's a way to hedge in this situation, or even to profit from it. Maybe with options?
Anyway, I am willing to reward a very good idea with 0.125 BTC. I want an intelligent discussion Veeky Forums, no LARPing or other bullshit.
I'd seriously consider cashing out. Maybe 1/2 out and out that into futures itself then keep half in if want to risk it
Caleb Roberts
Agree with user.
Jace Phillips
Where do we view these futures and how quickly could they affect the market?
I have even more in BTC than OP.
Carter Lopez
Like with any portfolio, I'd sit down and reevaluate the distribution of your funds. Maybe keep some bitcoin, but move some money into the bigger altcoins, as well as some ETFs/stocks. It's all about how much risk you can handle, and as your investments have increased, your risk tolerance probably has decreased
I don't need 0.125, but if you found this useful, every little bit helps: 1GctDqGHgJYwCATm9jUktCDQz5Cynfkp6y
Your best bet is to place options in a straddle. You can profit off the volatility of BTC -- OR you'll be hedging your losses by adding to the stability of the ecosystem. A straddle is essentially surrounding the current price with both a put and a call so that if the price moves either up OR down beyond your contracts, you profit from it.
This way you can make money if the price moves down OR up, AND you'll be hedging against the volatility. This should let you keep all of your current money whichever way the price moves.
Please send the BTC here: 3MpLqowEEFCKRCHZr87goWtBJt22FwzESP
iirc initially short positions won't be allowed unless greater than 50% for a few days. I absolutely expect it to get shorted though
Oliver Wood
Well, futures introduces riskless arbitrage. Expect price to drop to cost of mining per coin - less than $5000
Elijah Gutierrez
3HuHQT2i3FdXoaKXDCGngKsTLwVroSbcwM address if you care. If you are cashing out consider doing a Fibonacci or something of that kind to balance gains and loses. Open up futures and short it. $500k is life changing money if you're smart despite what biz says
Ethan Reed
1. Yes it will increase volatility. 2. HODL or profit from that volatility until $22-23k.
1.1. If it shits the bed they answer. 1.2. If not, it looks less suspect once their shorts come in.
What happens next:
3. They tank it then go long. 4. Accumulate.
Why:
3.1. Because they're scorpions. 4.1. Increase share of something they missed - which they did miss.
Bentley Bennett
finally you cunts learned to create segwit addresses.
Ayden Gutierrez
Futures is the only way to short bitcoin, it's a new force. Until today it was only possible to bet long
Eli Harris
So the hedging idea is good, just maybe not hedging with crypto. Almost 100% of the time alts go down when bitcoin goes up. If you hedge, you should hedge in stocks; but historically, January has never been a very good month for stocks.
Also historically, futures make the market top and then return to a lower steady path...and there's two of them opening on bitcoin. Within 2 days of each other.
What you can do is cash out a significant portion and wait till december ends and cash out. If bitcoin goes up, then you'd have another bull run on the side to catch your money up to itself.
December runs are only like 1 to 2 percent tops though. You can also leave it in there until August and sell off before September. But there may be an impending crash given the bull run we've had in the past year (24% or something).
Looking back at Bitcoin, I think it's very possible it's in a bull trap right now. It will not be a bull trap if it becomes maybe 18k from a steady rise. Invest around in 18 to 21k and then get out before 50-100k maybe. This part is harder to predict.
Just some things to consider.
Good luck OP.
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Elijah Williams
I had seriously considered this, but a long straddle (or strangle) does not protect against volatility. It protects against trends.
Volatility means that price goes up and down like crazy (thus making the standard deviation of returns very high), but it may very well end up where it started.
Having said that, a long straddle/strangle is not a bad strategy, but the main problem is that there is only one exchange for Bitcoin options that I know of -- Deribit. And they only offer European vanilla options, which is not that great. At least American options would be needed for this to work well (in my opinion).
Lincoln Bennett
Theres coinut too but I don't know how good it is
Jack Davis
Decide on a risk management strategy asap. Identify your risk appetite and tolerance for the pending volatility period.
Cash out a portion into fiat (the more % of your holdings then the more risk adverse the plan is).
Now if you're very aggressive, know how to leverage trade and willing to take risks. Short swap at the next rally and long futures on the next dip Bitmex 50/50 or 45/55 at x2 or x3 lev (don't go any higher). Play the spread; so if the positions are 50/50 the profits and losses should equal out; however if there is massive momentum towards one side - you can close the losing position gradually resulting in a profit. Note that the profit is paid in BTC so you would be barely gaining any fiat value if it actually does dump hard - but if hedged properly then your cashed out fiat can now rebuy back in btc once a price floor is found.
Personally i reckon cme traders will pump the shit out of btc before crashing it hard so they burn the retail and the smart traders. Surviving against that is most important.
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Andrew Price
you're better off doing it like this.
put aside 10% of your crypto assets and short what its worth.
if price moons, your 90% will moon. if price tanks, your 10% will be a very good cushion.
its just an example op, but yeah, manage the percentages yourself.
tip here: 1FDzhQzmwcnnwYtUm8qvoZf2J2CMMdZdKo
Jason Morris
Well, I have the answer for you but it's not easy to explain.
What you need to do is watch the daily candle on BTC today, as it will likely dictate the rest of the week which is extremely important heading into the 18th. It's true that BTC is currently forming a Three Crows (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_black_crows) pattern on the daily right now, and remember daily candles in crpyto are more like a week in the traditional stock market, so you've got close to a month (per se) of bearish sentiment building here. Again, you'll need to watch how it closes (6PM CST for reference).
A drop from here would drop heavily, and your best bet would be to remain in CASH. Do NOT let anyone convince you to jump into some alt or some other coin as a "hedge" against BTC. If BTC were to plummet here and show a reversal from the bull market heading into the CME, the entire market is going to reenter into price discovery all over again.
At that point, you'll be wanting to watch some key coins that do in fact run anti-BTC (or simply don't care what BTC does) and there are limited options. I'm not recommending ANY of these, I'm merely placing them here for your own reference to keep on eye on and chart.
*DASH *XLM *XMR (sometimes) *BCH
Do NOT FOMO in a time like this. I've seen recommendations here already to straddle. Well, you only straddle if you're bullish with doubt -- you essentially hedge on the off-chance you're wrong. I would not recommend this. I would recommend watching BTC (as explained above) and seeing how it plays out today as today is very very very important for the next week and ultimately potentially 30 days in crypto markets.
If BTC can close above 15.7K today (16K would be nice) it would be a strong sign. Anything much lower than that would be bearish.
In short, the idea is to let BTC play out today, see where she closes, and if bearish, go into cash. Do NOT hedge or straddle or any stupid shit like that.
Josiah Cook
Since btc is an unregulated market and GS is probably up to it's ears in btc what is stopping them to make a massive short on futures and then manipulate the price down? or anyone
Ethan Sanchez
Send half of your btc to one exchange, second half to another, play short on one, play long on second.
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Aiden Cruz
Finishing my post --
This is NOT the type of market you want to get cute in with straddle positions. You can literally FEEL the anxiety in the markets right now. Even bulls wouldn't mind a good crash right now, it would be a sigh of relief.
The market is waiting on a signal, and it's not getting it, but this is the 11th hour and that signal is imminent.
If BTC goes up, ride it out until we get close to the CME and evaluate again. If it tanks, track the chart the coins I listed above as opportunities to remain in the market if you're interested in playing (because these coins often don't care about BTC or even jump when BTC falls like BCH can)
Until BTC makes a move, this market is neither long OR short, it's a swing traders market and to do that you need to be trading non-stop, charting, etc.
It doesn't sound like you have the time or knowledge to do this, so again, for the last time, watch BTC today. If it looks bad, get OUT, into CASH, and WAIT for the market to correct. Re-entry at a lower point will be quite tasteful for someone with your resources.
Do NOT go either LONG or SHORT. WAIT for BTC to MAKE A MOVE.
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Noah Cox
That's fair, and you're right, it does protect against trends not volatility. If you consider the current price though, and futures being a pessimistic market, this will probably start trending BTC downward toward mining profit parity. Right now it's overblown.
Re: long straddle It could work with European options but it would definitely be more risky. I wouldn't do it. Not sure what other options are available, I'll keep thinking...
Jacob Smith
cash out half or more than half (at least more than what you have invested in total) and use the rest as a learning experience, win or lose
Charles Harris
I cashed out.... the increased volatility is too risky. This is from yesterday No larp
Jonathan Carter
Hey user Not to seem like a begger but I wanna be part of the happening since 2013 Send me some please
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Kayden Wright
Someone care to explain what this "btc futures" deal is? Keep seeing it but not finding much info...
Angel Gutierrez
Consider this : Bloodbath happens Normies panic, some hodlers too Who the fuck buys in such environment, when everyone panic sells? Dasright.jpg The more you sell, the more control they will acquire
Logan Bell
>I'm unsure if I should take the risk and hold, or sell now and wait for the uncertainty around futures to pass. why not both? sell a part, reinvest another part in promising alts and put the rest away i'd just listen to my gut feeling though
