What if after Robert's Rebellion Tywin leveraged his help in the war to get Robert to release Jaime from the Kingsguard...

Then I would wonder why we're having this discussion on this thread.

Great when people read about the extinct House of Lannister they'll see that it gave Westeros a queen and two kings. What don't you name a actual benefit the Westerlands gained from Cersei, Joffrey and Tommen?

Bobby B hates targs enough to literally kill babies, Dorne wants a Targaryen on the throne, and as for Jon's secret of birth, I'm sure Petyr could pull something out of his ass.

Tywin is not a practical man, he's a man of ambition. He wants Lannisters respected and feared, and there is no better way than put one on the throne.

In canon there is literally a Targ on the Wall that everybody knows about and Robert leaves him alone.
So you admit that marrying into the Baratheon dynasty was a stupid mistake?

why hasn't house Dayne put forth a new Sword of the Morning yet do they really have no competent young knights in their house

>the Westerlands

The westerlands don't matter for shit. It's house Lannister that matters. And it would've been succesful if Cersei and Jaime were not retarded.

Also you're thinking through a modern lense. For a feudal lord being rich is less important than prestige and influence.

>So you admit that marrying into the Baratheon dynasty was a stupid mistake?
I don't follow.

>that everybody knows about

Jon didn't before being told and he's from the North. I seriously doubt Robert knows jack shit about Aemon and I seriously doubt he ever cared about what was going on the Wall.

Even if he does know, Aemon is literally one hundred years old and spent most of those years freezing his ass off on the Wall. He's a black brother AND a maester, so that's more reasons he can't take the throne.
Jon is young, strong, handsome and could potentially cause another rebellion, not to mention being literally a spawn of Rhaegar. Robert would kill him without second thoughts, if he knew.

The Lannisters have been ruling the Westerlands for thousands of years, to say that the Westerlands don't matter is simply retarded. Do you think the Emperor of Japan would be cool with Japan going down?
>And it would've been succesful if Cersei and Jaime were not retarded.
If Joffrey Baratheon was Robert's seed, how would that help the Lannisters? You still haven't answered how marrying into the Baratheons actually helps the Lannisters, it sure as fuck didn't help the Targs.
>For a feudal lord being rich is less important than prestige and influence
Except thats wrong. Being rich and owning land is the point. Fame is a tool.

>Jon didn't before being told and he's from the North.
Stannis knew, though that might be Mel.

Isolationism is honestly the dumbest fucking policy that exists.

Works for Dorne.

You're acting as if Robert's marriage was actively sinking the westerlands.

He gained two valyrian swords thanks to the derping of his grandson.

Not sure what the fuck came over him when he decided to melt Ice right after Ned getting the shave.

He didn't know it was gonna end that way because he didn't realize his dumb cunt of a daughter was fucked in the head.

Robert would consider it an immense betrayal on Ned's part. He might have him killed.

We know Robert's temper ultimately cools and he relents on Dany, but what if he has Ned beheaded BEFORE he comes to his senses?

He was symbolically declaring the Starks dead.

t. European who destroyed his continent twice in less than a half century

Reminder that the reason he hates Targs is because Rhaegar stole his gf, in addition his rebellion started when Aerys demanded Ned and Bob's heads from Jon Arryn after killing Brandon and Rickon, him killing another Stark would be utterly out of the question.

Would also depends on when he discover the betrayal.
Right after the Rebellion? Winterfell burn to the ground.
Right Before/after Balon's Drowned God Wild Ride? Ned gets his ribs smashed in and Jon become jello.
Anytime in between/after Jon Arryn's death and it'll depend on how drunk he is.

I doubt he'd even believe it. Jon doesn't look or act like a targ. Robby would probably just call whoever came to him with this info a lying faggot and beat punch him in the mouth for making outlandish lies about his friend's kid.

Six million golden dragons don't lie.

Doesn't stop them raising massive armies, and Littlefinger pays the bills.

What massive armies? The Westerlands armies that are payed by the Lannisters? And Littlefinger doesn't pay crap, he robs people for all they're worth and then blames it on others. If Tywin was as smart as Littlefinger the Lannisters would've conquered Essos by now.

>If Joffrey Baratheon was Robert's seed, how would that help the Lannisters?
Well he wouldn't have been insane and caused a war. A legitimate claim would mean Stannis doesn't rebel, thousands of soldiers would still be alive to fight the Walkers...yeah, pretty much all the bad shit in the series happens because Cersi liked her brother's dick.

You're forgetting that the mines in the Westerlands ran dry decades ago and the Lannisters were coasting on reputation alone. Isolationism would have been the worst kind of dead end. They needed actual power and the fastest and most effective way to do that was become the Baratheons/ the Baratheons closest allies.

The war was going to happen no matter what, the question is if you end up in the thick of it or sit on the sidelines like Dorne.

>You're forgetting that the mines in the Westerlands ran dry decades ago
Showfags, get out

No, not at all. The war happened because it was a well known secret that Cersi fucks her brother and her kids weren't Robert's, so Stannis has the only legit claim, and Renley thinking he'd be a better king than Stannis. Plus Ned would be, y'know, ALIVE, so the North isn't rebelling.

War was going to happen because there were several factions pushing for war.

A. That's tv canon only
B. When you have no money, loaning money out is the stupidest thing you could do and anyone who thinks that's a good idea should kill themselves.
C. The only "actual power" the Lannisters gained from allying with Bobby B was taking over the glorified police of King's Landing. After he died at best they had control over the Crownlands and Westerlands but their armies are fucked, they're in debt and every other region hates them and is waiting for the moment to fuck them over. Meanwhile if they had just stayed in the Westerlands their armies would be fine, they'd have no debt, and the other regions wouldn't give a fuck about them.

Because they knew Joffrey had no claim to the throne.

Literally the only person who rebelled because they thought Joffrey was a bastard was Stannis and even he would've rebelled if he thought it would save the Kingdom. Robb rebelled because his family got caught and killed in King's Landing, something similar can happen even if Joff is trueborn, Renly was powerhungry, Ironborn want revenge, Dorne wants revenge, Littlefinger will do whatever he needs to gain more power.

War is coming one way or another.

Then I'm sure Doran Martell would continue his revenge plan against him and his heirs. Except the Lannister's no longer have the security provided by association with the kingship.

So Tywin continues being tormented by dreams of laughter and worse seeing his family brought low. The twins Jamie and Cersei will continue to be bewitched by each other. And Tyrion would be victim to the same whoring that Tywin himself was prone to.

>I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure. I take some small solace in knowing that he died a cruel death at the hands of the monster that he himself begot.

>because his family got caught and killed in King's Landin
Something that would not have happened at all had Joffrey been legitimate. Ned would not have needed to be regent, Cersi would have no reason to arrest him because he wouldn't have tried to arrest her first, and even then if Joffrey hadn't been nuts he wouldn't have KILLED NED and caused his son to rebel.

Dornefags are truly delusional. Littlefinger and Varys have done more harm to the Lannisters than everyone from Dorne combined.

PS, Ne still alive means Renley had to deal with an intact Stark/Barratheon alliance, and no army marching south means the Ironborn don't see the North as vulnerable and they never rebel in the first place.

>Something that would not have happened at all had Joffrey been legitimate
Not happened in the way it happened but there are still many situations where a Stark can get killed in King's Landing.

Which is nothing but pure speculation. You're assuming a random death would have made Robb march south, even thought Ned being alive means Robb isn't, y'know, LORD OF WINTERFELL and doesn't have the authority in the first place. And do you think Renley would rebel if he knew it would mean fighting Stannis and Ned together? AND do you think the Ironborn would have done anything at all if the North was still full of soldiers who weren't off fighting the Lannisters?

What if you read something that wasn't trash genre fiction written by a fat fuck that thinks lines like "fat pink mast" and "shitting brown water" are good?

Renly takes the Tyrell forces and half of the Baratheon forces then he skullfucks King's Landing, the North moves south to try to save the Baratheons and they get ass raped by the Ironborn.

There's something which is (completely justifiably) being neglected, within ASOIAF it's unclear if anything even could be different due to the expression of fatalism and destiny. Daenarys, Melisandre, and Euron for example are clairvoyant and are aware of the future which has been predetermined. Just throwing that out there.

And your childish idea that there would never be war if Joffrey was trueborn isn't speculation?

Which he would not have been able to do if people actually believed a Baratheon was on the throne. The entire justification for the war was that Joffrey was a incest baby.

Almost every problem in Westeros happens because of that.

There's not a snowball's chance in hell Robert would behead Ned if he found out about Jon Snow. Robert would be angry, he'd smash up a few pieces of furniture, he'd even probably give Ned a black eye, but he would not have him killed.

Beric Dondarrion was betrothed to a lady of Starfall (Allyria sister to the lord). He squired the Lord of Starfall's son Edric who is now the lord after his fathers death.

So Beric now that he is married to the last Lady of the main branch of Danye at Starfall is the defacto lord of Starfall and the adoptive father of the technical heir. So i'm sure it would be quite amusing to whoever was manipulating Berics body like a wight that a man revived seemingly by a the powers of a priest of the Lord of Light would be in the position to take up the bright glowing sword of the morning.

Of course maybe it's being wielded by the cadet branch of Daynes at High Hermitage in the reach of Gerold 'Darkstar' Dayne.

>Cersi would have no reason to arrest him
Cersei does not need any reason, she is crazy.

If Joffrey had been legitimate Ned wouldn't have challenged her.

Are there female bastards in Westeros?

of course, even the show had 3

>You still haven't answered how marrying into the Baratheons actually helps the Lannisters

Isn't that obvious? Robert did literally what the Lannister's said, with only Arryn being a bit of a counterbalance. With Joffrey it was even more obvious. Tywin was the king of westeros, not the Baratheon.

But what was his tax policy?

Yess im sure that time Littlefinger supported the Cersei against Ned, then went and secured the Tyrell alliance saving King's Landing with Tywin was a terrible wound to Lannister power!

Varys clearing out Kevan and Tywin was obviously not good of Lannister but otherwise he saved the children's skins many times when it benefits his plans, like saving the potential heir to the Rock from execution.

Littlefinger is fucking around with the Starks and Cat/Lysa/Sansa.

Varys wants the Lannisters out of the way for Aegon to come in sure but he isn't actively trying to draw out their suffering through doing things like:

-Cutting off Jamies hand and keeping him alive.
-Marwyn and Alleras/Sarella Sand messing with minds with a glass candle
-Killing Arys Oakheart and maiming Myrcella
-Cersei's walk of shame
-Giving Tywin widows blood

t. Shitposter that thinks he knows everything
Look I can do it too asshole

Enough has been said as to why he wouldn't, but let's look at if he did anyway. Consider the chronological line of Lannister F*ck ups and the effect of them not being there.

Kingdom in debt - This is the Tywin Blank Check to get back in the game. Petyr raped the economy through Robert without Lannister aid and Loans to be called i will keep them relevant even if separated from direct power. Assume the inward focus allows for infrastructure changes to allow for the earning of the money to lend out. Altenatively, the Iron bank dept is higher and a bailout from Uncle Lannister is the payment plan.

Robert's Murder - Done by Cersei, another wife may be more accepting of the Terror of Big Bob. An heir, warped by life and not inbreeding would exist if new Queen didn't share brotherly love predilections.Bobby R kept spending and the realm was just unstable enough for the other players to just sit on it and wait.

King Joffery - Without a badly planned genetics lesson proving incest isn't wincest, Stark regency and resultant death is unlikely as the whole debacle, should it occur, wouldn't go down based on law by an in-bread sociopath with power of royalty.

In general, all the Five Kings Cluster Fuckery would go on pause until the White Walkers make a move on the wall. At which point everyone sees the writing on the wall, makes there power grab, and only the group that hesitated will have any real leg to stand on.

Cersei wanted power, Ned had Regency by Robert's death wish.If the only change to the situation was a black haired Joffery, Ned still be dead, assuming Joff was generally sociopathic and not just in-bread. Remember, we know by meta-Knowledge that Joffery wasn't legit, but a logical and fully acceptable argument could be made to the contrary if given a chance. Check Spacebattles Creative Writing, a user replaced Joffery mentally with Octavian from Rome. The argument there is perfect.

How much of his long game is Littlefinger making up as he goes along

Littlefinger isn't smarter, he just has more plot immunity.
Martin has to give it out sparingly, to trick people into thinking the series is 'realistic'.

>Jon is a targ
I hate this show meme

It isn't directly said in the book but it's so fucking implied it could be the name of the book.

GRRM writes about prophecy being wrong and changeable in his other works. To him prophecy is a lie and only ever comes true because people subconsciously try to make it true.

The future is not pre determined in ASOIAF

Isolationism? When your chief source of income is running dry?

The meme is older than the show.

It's really not heavily implied, Ned himself hasn't thought about Rhaegar in years and the idea that Jon is special never occurs to Ned. It's Luwin and Benjen that push Jon to taking the black, Ned doesn't really care. You'd think if Jon was a targ bastard ned would want him safe on the wall but Ned doesn't seem to think about Jon in that way.
It's a dumb book meme too without solid proof, it's basically the cliche of the nobody is actually secretly jesus and will save the world. GRRM doesn't like that cliche or cliches in general, Jon isn't the prince that was promised or anything else.
The Rock's gold mines are only empty in the show, they are fine in the books.

You're pretty sure about what you're saying buddy, when we're all pretty much theorizing here

>The Rock's gold mines are only empty in the show, they are fine in the books.
If the mines are so productive, why doesn't either fuckface or Tommen settle the kingdom's debts with Lannister gold?

They're in HUGE debt, Littlefinger has run up debt so high that the iron throne can't pay it back without very drastic measures.
It still takes time to mine and refine the gold.

So are the Lannisters in debt as well from continually paying for everything?

Or is it that the Crown is in debt to both the Lannisters and the Iron Bank, and the Lannisters can't get the gold fast enough to pay back both at once?

The Lannisters aren't in debt but they've got a huge loan out for the king that will never be repaid, they're throwing away money because Tywin wanted to keep his position of power and saw that giving robert all the money he wanted and not questioning him was the best way to ensure his grandson would end up king.

The Iron Bank isn't going to get their money back from the Iron Throne and they know it as in both the show and the books they're funding Stannis now. Stannis probably isn't going to pay them back anyway because he doesn't believe in favours, he just assumes people should give him things because he is the rightful king

>Bobby and Goeffy B don't pay
>fund Stannis
>Stannis doesn't pay
>fund Golden Company
>Golden Company doesn't fucking pay
>???

I think I've found a weakness in the Iron Bank's strategy.

So does the Iron Bank have more money than the Lannisters when it's all counted up? How fucking rich ARE they, and where is it all coming from?

That's when they send in a fully trained debt collector (faceless man) to get their due from whoever is on the throne.
The Iron Bank has raw money whilst the lannisters' wealth is mostly in assets and their mines which pay out in huge amounts but takes time to actually get the money from it. The Iron Bank is weirdly not to be fucked with but nobody has explained why, I think the faceless men take contracts from the Iron Bank as they are both in braavos, it would also explain how they are actually successful as people will pay back their loans under threat of death. I imagine they send in a faceless man to threaten the debtor and then they pay up or sell land and assets to make the debt go away.

Merely threatening death does not seem like a very Faceless Man thing to do.

Maybe kidnapping or something, I do think the faceless men have to work for the Iron Bank, nobody else has the money to hire them. Even the small council say a faceless man is too expensive to try and kill Dany, if the Iron Throne can't afford a single faceless man nobody can, so I think the Iron Bank hires faceless men and they do whatever because they need the money to keep their order afloat.

Iron Bank is overrated, and I really doubt it will matter in the end.

>nobody else has the money to hire them
What, you think Iron Bank hired Arya to kill that actor in the TWoW? The price faceless men demand depends strongly on what can you pay.

>Jon and Dany become king and queen because you know it'll fucking happen
>suddenly an Iron Bank emissary arrives
>hands them a demand for repayment of all the Targaryen loans

>Jon is secretly the bastard son of the Iron Bank's CEO and Lyanna Stark
>Jon stabs Dany and orders the seizing of lannister mines to repay the iron bank
>Screen fades to black
>"and who are you the proud lord said..."

I can hardly think of anything shittier. That's how I know it will happen.

probably also on who you want killed