A genie offers you 100k, then offers you the chance to play the following game: he rolls a 20 sided die, any side except 1 and you double your money, roll a 1 and you lose all the money.
How many times do you play this game? At what amount of money does the diminishing return of having twice as much money no longer justify taking a 5% risk?
Just trying to gauge everyone's psychology.
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seven times
Until I’m rich nigga
Roll again and again and again and again and again and again and etc.
It's never enough user.
I'd prob play like 15 times desu
until i lose everything
5 times is enough
Just take the 100k and go all in on coss
I would stop at 3.2m
10 times because it then becomes 50/50 if I win or not and that is just too risky
Once
>diminishing return
If you double your money every time that isn't diminishing, that's exponential
Your E(V) is then 0.
Your odds of reaching 1.6MM USD is 0.95^4 = 81.4%.
Your odds of losing that 1.6MM USD before you reached your final target of 12.8MM USD is 15%. So my question now is, if you had 1MM USD and were given the chance to roll a 7 sided die where you'd 10x your money unless you rolled a 1, in which case you'd lose the 1MM. Would you take it?
Obviously you would stop at 19 since the 20th side is 1
0. I have better investments in mind than a possible 100% return with 5% chance of 100% loss. Honestly even putting it all in a random ICO would be a better investment. 100% is nothing now that we have crypto. Nothing.
t:turbobrainlet
Roll 0 times and attempt to kill genie.
He cheats and is also a demon.
Do people really think like this?
Yeah I'd personally just use some basic stats and probability to calculate an appropriate level of risk.
If you roll it 4 times, that's already down to an 81% chance of missing the 1 on all four. EV calculations will always say roll, but $1.6 million would be enough to get me where I need to be
kek
holy shit dude.
Your grasp of statistics make me kek
You should expect it to take you 20 tries before landing on the 1. There is a ~65% chance of landing on a 1 once or more if you roll 20 times. I personally would roll 7 times to be extra safe. still end up with over 10 million.
10 times.
Exponential return of money, diminishing return on quality of life. The quality of life of someone with 10MM USD is closed to the QOL of a billionaire than it is to a homeless pajeet.
So you have the chance to walk away with 12.8MM USD, but you roll three more times?
But can they yield a 100% return five times consecutively?
There are no stats and probability to determine an appropriate response, see; Petersburg lottery, because the odds are weighed in your favour statistically it is favourable to play infinitely. The real question is a subjective question of when risking all your money is no longer enough to justify 2x-ing it.
won't stop. the game won't end after you rolled 1.
This desu
Yeah but you'll be left doubling 0, kek.
I use Detect Evil and ready an action; if it pings, charging smite.
omg
OMG
IM LEAVING THIS BOARD MARIE!
doesn't say you can't put your own money in
i take 100k and put it in crypto.
Lets play a game Veeky Forums
Roll?
roll
I hit an amount of money where it's inconvenient to keep going or I lose.
>Odds of this genie 16x-ing your money: 0.95^4 = 81.4%
Do you really think you have better odds on crypto?
roll
Even your ID is black
Sorry anons
me i would walk away with the 100k because if you roll a 1 you lose everything. it's a 50/50, either you win or lose, not taking those odds
Trolling.
>But can they yield a 100% return five times consecutively?
If you put it in link they can.
People still fall for this?
Hide your half of your money in Monero, then you roll with your remaining money. If you win, hide that half again and keep doing it.
You play it exactly once. The 100k you didn't have, so risk is 0%. If you manage to double it, boom instant 200k. Rolling again is then a risk of 100% because you can lose it all, even though you didn't have it.
my "lucky" attribute allows me to reroll any natural 1 on a d20 once per turn so I would play this game until I have to use my power and then I'd play just one more time to tempt fate. I'm a halfling rogue btw
>
Do you really think you have better odds on crypto?
i have 0% chance of losing it all in crypto, it will always cost SOMETHING and i'm sure one day it will fully recover so i'll just need to hodl.
4 times
Good Thread op
uhhhh
oh my god
4. A mill is enough
>0% chance of losing it all in crypto, it will always cost SOMETHING
nice Monte Carlo brainlet
it will, even if it's 0.000001$ that's still something. even scam coins like confido are still worth something, hell confido even seen some small pump recently lol.
I will take the $100K because I am not so mentally retarded as to not be happy with free $100K.
Also, it is a genie, shady motherfucker who thrives on subverting wishes, dice rolling is not truly random and HE will be the one doing the rolling.
There is a 51% chance of you never rolling a 1 if you roll 13 times.
20 times.
>A genie offers you a 85% chance to make 1MM USD, but with a 15% chance of making 0.
>This is a worse choice than some shitcoin because the shitcoin can't go to 0, it will be worth some infinitesimally larger amount than 0.
>Using the absolute lower bound of an risk to evaluate the relative profitability of that risk.
you only have a 35% chance of success.
i take the 100k and tell him to fuck off
5 times
that oughta do me for the rest of my days
I've played enough D&D to know that I'll probably get a 1 on the first roll
However since there is absolutely no risk to losing I ride that bitch until I'm either the richest man on the planet or broke.
Play until I lose, can't walk away from the table on a winning streak. Every gambler knows that.
81% chance of success.
my shitcoins will recover, genie's money will evaporate, this is a crucial difference. if you think this market won't recover, you are like those idiots who thought internet won't recover after dot-com bubble. i get your stupid analogy, but that's not how crypto works, it's not a gamble, unless you see it as a one, i.e. idiots who took mortgages to buy btc ath without knowing jack shit about crypto.
We should pump GENIECOIN next.
baited by a troll
btw to all the people doing these calculations - the probability changes as you play the game and more knowledge gets revealed to u (Bayes). I.e. if you win 20 times, then you have a 95% chance of winning 21 times, but if you have won 0 times, then there is a (0.95)^21 chance you'll win 21 times. Also I'd play to about 600k cos after that point money really loses most of its utility (got a house and food, meh what more do you need).
America everybody
Zero times. Right now I'm on the border of being able to make a down-payment on a good house, $100k means I can do it safely.
I'll just retire
I'd roll it yeah.
Its a genie you fucking idiots. If you decide to roll the die youve already lost
But you could still walk away with 1MM USD and put that into crypto.
>House money fallacy
Lets say that my net worth is 1,6 million
It would take me 4 throws to double my net worth through this game.
The next throw I'd increase my net worth with either 50% or or decrease by 50.
However on a log chart these are not the same. You need about 1,7 times a 50% increase to recover from the 50% loss. Whereas if you quit you only need to find another means that gives you a 50% ROI once.
But the odds are 19 to 1 so we throw a fifth time.
Next up I can either increase my wealth with 66,6% or lose 66,6%. I need to find an ROI of 66,6% 2,15 times to recoup my losses. Still throw.
Next up, win 80% or lose 80% (divide by five. In short I'd stop when ln(gains/losses) > 19 (gains = 1,8; losses = 5 in this latest example)
>But you could still walk away with 1MM USD and put that into crypto.
i'm not taking that risk, 100k is enough and after i double my money in crypto i can take something off the table, i doubt genie would let me do that.
For the brainlets out there
roll 1 time 95% chance of winning
roll 2 times 90% chance of winning
roll 3 times 86% chance of winning
roll 4 times 81% chance of winning
roll 5 times 77% chance of winning
roll 6 times 74% chance of winning
roll 7 times 70% chance of winning
roll 8 times 66% chance of winning
roll 9 times 63% chance of winning
roll 10 times 60% chance of winning
roll 11 times 57% chance of winning
roll 12 times 54% chance of winning
roll 13 times 51% chance of winning
roll 14 times 49% chance of winning
roll 15 times 46% chance of winning
roll 16 times 44% chance of winning
roll 17 times 42% chance of winning
roll 18 times 40% chance of winning
roll 19 times 38% chance of winning
roll 20 times 36% chance of winning
People like you are looking at the question from a rational point of view when the root of the question is actually an emotional one. At what level of wealth are you sufficiently content that the pain of losing that wealth exceeds the euphoria of doubling said wealth by 5:1.
In other words if you had 10MM would you feel 5x worse losing it then winning another 10MM would make you feel good?
I think for me the true value lies around 5MM, I'd be 100x more devastated at losing my 5MM then I would be happy gaining another 5MM.
Once but that would be the one time a 1 comes up
Has anyone ever tested this? As in rolled 100 dice 20 times each simultaneously
>Its a genie you fucking idiots.
3-5 times unless I had a better risk reward investment for my 100k. I would probably invest in crypto desu. A risk of 0 is worse than the crypto risk plus I don’t mind waiting 2 years for gains.
It is only money at the end of the day, I’m not greedy and don’t need it to be happy but it is useful. I am mostly in crypto to be part of reclaiming the ‘wealth’ and power back from the corporations and giving it back to the individual.
Centralised crypto is cancer.
Fuck you cheating genie.
little graph
fucking retards, its a 1/20 every time
a die dont remember what its previous roll was.
2nd roll
>people saying they'd roll upwards of 10
The chance that a 1 has been rolled increases with each roll
Six
Stay jelly, poorfag.
>thanks the genie for my $104 Trillion
>gets ready to buy a small country to turn into a white ethnostate
>hires the Rothchilds to be my gardeners
>Soros is my caddy
>realize too late the genie never specified the currency
>get $104T in Zimbabewbux
>sell it on ebay for $50
>invest that $50 in shitcoins
>have $15 by the end of the year
>doesn't know the basics of probability
lmao just roll that shit 19 times
guarante'd 52 billion fortune
Roll once then good. 200k is all I need.
5 times
Let X = "one diceroll"
E(X) = 1/20 * -1 * (current amount of money) + 19/20 * (current amount of money)
I expect to gain +90% with each roll
I will roll forever
read a stats book
>the current state of Veeky Forums
I'd roll 10 times, this isn't money I had before and I'm not actually losing anything, just potentially getting a shit load of it.
no it doesn't retard, it stays the same
>A genie offers you 100k, then offers you the chance to play the following game: he rolls a 20 sided die, any side except 1 and you double your money, roll a 1 and you lose all the money.
not even playing nigga
that's like asking if I'm cool crossing a road if there's a 5% chance of me dying.
I take the 100k and go in index funds
After working another 5-10 years I expect about 10% yearly return from my now 200k worth stocks amd savings, so I live from the 20k interest each year.