If society were to collapse, what factions would rise up and take its place?

If modern civilization regressed due to, or was destroyed entirely, by one or more global disasters, say, a more lethal variant of rabies reaching pandemic status, coupled with a short-lived but high-intensity conventional world war ended by a handful of nuclear destinations in major cities, followed by a two-year famine, what elements of "Pre-Fall" society would rise to power and pick up the pieces?
The other day, me and a friend of mine were having a fairly lengthy debate on the subject, on the US in particular. I figure Utah, having a large Mormon population, would quickly organize into a theocracy, that would soon become rapidly expansionist to conquer enough farmland to feed itself, and that various extremist political /religious groups would secede in the event of a world war and begin to carve out their own territories, in a way not dissimilar to ISIS. My friend is convinced that upon the collapse of the Federal Government, the military would fracture into several dozen rogue factions, the loyalists being, if not the largest, among the largest, which would immediately begin to either carve out their own pseudo-fiefdoms, loot and pillage the countryside, or work as mercenaries for surviving settlements. He's also convinced that the majority of the US's prison population, 3 times the size of China's military, would escape and organize into large marauding gangs and begin to exert their influence, like a less efficient and poorly equipped, but more brutal version of the military factions. I feel that's extremely likely, but I felt I had to get Veeky Forums's input, hence the questioning thread title. Thanks in advance for answering.

> tl;dr: If shit hit the fan and civilization collapsed, what kind of factions would takeover and become the new government?

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Let's just get this out of the way, New Jersey is a fucking wasteland.
Its populated by large amounts of Italian, Black and Spanish people, all divided into gangs who are at war with atleast one other group at a time.

but it has really good pizza and bagels tho. The Jews in Teaneck make some good fucking bagels.

That depends entirely on who is left standing after the collapse. What happens, to who, and how means a lot.

Like, all that thought you put into Utah? If the disaster is a new ice age arising from the Yellowstone Caldera going off, there wont BE a Utah. Everyone there is dead, exploded and drowned in toxic ash.

Details matter here.

I'm so happy clueless New Yorkers have everyone convinced that the turnpike represents the whole state. Keeps you fools out of my beautiful shores and forests.

Not to go /pol/
... but it would get pretty /pol/

Christians and Buddhists would ally against the Muslims, doomsday preppers and /k/ would hunt and kill city folk

>Criminals

Most of America's criminal population is non violent offenders, it's an industry here

You know who gets real strong? The Narcos.

You'd see redneck clans fighting narco gangs fighting street gangs fighting military leftovers fighting starving city-slickers fighting more redneck clans. Shit would look like Mad Max in camo in milsurp.

Bump

It depends on who is the most self-sufficient. Who needs the support of the greater society the least.

To get what I mean, here's a little history lesson for you on the rise of European feudalism.

The Roman Empire taxed trade, but not land. As a result, wealthy and powerful people tried to acquire as much land as they could so that they could produce as much of what they needed as possible on their own property so as not to have to trade and thus incur the taxes. When the Roman Empire collapsed, these people were in a prime position to fend for themselves. They had vast estates which produced nearly everything they needed to survive, and often live comfortably above subsistence levels. Europe became a sea of anarchistic chaos dotted with islands of order, and people flocked to these islands.

However, these islands were frequent targets for bandits and raiders. Imagine you're a farmer in the European countryside. With the collapse of Rome, there is no longer a police or military force to enforce order. All of your energy goes into farming to support your family, so defending your land isn't an option for you. You are frequently extorted or robbed by bandits. Then this well-dressed guy rides up with his buddies. He owns a vast sprawl of land and has men and supplies at his disposal to defend it. He tells you that for a percentage of everything that your farm earns or produces, he can keep away the raiders, and you can keep the rest for yourself.

This man becomes a count, baron, etc.

But he can't stop larger, more organized bandit clans. For that, he needs to protection of a bigger noble, who takes from him a percentage of the wealth that he collects from his farms, and in exchange protects him and several others. This is a duke, prince, etc.

This pattern continues right up the chain to kings and the emperors. Technically the king owns all the land in the kingdom.

Cont

So the power groups that emerged after a societal collapse would be, as always, centered around those people and groups least dependent on the society, and thus the least affected by its collapse.

However, most modern governments have extensive contingency plans in place in case of a total societal collapse to ensure that they can persist in some form. Bunkers to protect important officials, multiple layers of redundancy to preserve records, etc. However, a government's reach is limited by the faith the people it governs have in it. If nobody cares to listen to those officials, then they call themselves whatever they want but it doesn't matter. A government without citizens is just a bunch of people screaming at the wind trying to make it change direction.

It is said that your borders extend exactly as far as your army can reach. Effectively, your country ends where you can no longer enforce your laws and keep out invaders.

People who possess the means to project force will be the dominant power groups. Survivalist militias and the like will have the means for force, but generally lack the supply chains and production capacity to project it very far. Anyone who derives their power from existing monetary and industrial systems will mostly be powerless unless they can continue supplying their goods in the new world.

>tfw all we West Virginians need to do to isolate ourselves from the rest of the country is to collapse our bridges.

>People who possess the means to project force will be the dominant power groups. Survivalist militias and the like will have the means for force, but generally lack the supply chains and production capacity to project it very far. Anyone who derives their power from existing monetary and industrial systems will mostly be powerless unless they can continue supplying their goods in the new world.

This.

>I figure Utah, having a large Mormon population, would quickly organize into a theocracy, that would soon become rapidly expansionist to conquer enough farmland to feed itself, and that various extremist political /religious groups would secede in the event of a world war and begin to carve out their own territories, in a way not dissimilar to ISIS.

ISIS might be harsh. I think its more likely that the Mormons quickly seize the state organs in Utah and stabilize their new state. After that they would probably trade for the resources they need because they would be stable enough internally too have more complex production chains.

>My friend is convinced that upon the collapse of the Federal Government, the military would fracture into several dozen rogue factions, the loyalists being, if not the largest, among the largest, which would immediately begin to either carve out their own pseudo-fiefdoms, loot and pillage the countryside, or work as mercenaries for surviving settlements.

Niqqa... The Military would run these settlements. Mercenaries... Please. You would have some military units pretending to work for some state official but the rest would just rule a fiefdom.

>He's also convinced that the majority of the US's prison population...

Surely not all of them. Sure some would be Raiders_2k17 edition but a lot of them would end up as forced labour for military/police factions or flat out executed by their guards before abandoning their posts.

There are so many fucking variables that you may as well just throw up your hands and invent whatever you want.

OP here.

Damn, looking back on my OP, I could've formatted that much better. Oh well, can't change it know.

It'd be pretty interesting to see how things broke up on a state-to-state basis, that's for sure. I doubt Oklahoma would stay unified for more than a fortnight, but I'm absolutely certain Texan/Okie military elements would attempt to annex the explosives and ammunition manufacturing plant in McAlister, assuming it wasn't a smoldering crater.

Right, right, the apocalypse I had in mind was a decade long Cold War 2.0, ended by an intense weaponized rabies outbreak, which results in a short, (six months to a year), but fierce intercontinental war causing millions of casualties on each of the half a dozen or so sides, ended by little over two dozen nuclear strikes to key areas, causing the collapse of our global infrastructure, along with the fracture of most superpowers' government's organized militaries.

Balkanization and then some, to be sure. Mad Max in camo and milsurp does sound like a kickass aesthetic though.

> (1/2)

Very interesting, very nice summary user. That's a way of looking at it I hadn't thought of, I appreciate the time you put into it.

> ISIS might be harsh. I think its more likely that the Mormons quickly seize the state organs in Utah and stabilize their new state. After that they would probably trade for the resources they need because they would be stable enough internally too have more complex production chains.

Right, right, I wasn't referring to Utah as ISIS-tier, or trying to insinuate that Mormonism is similar to Radical Jihadism, most Mormons I've known are kind, decent people. I meant the hundreds of small but ambitious /pol/-tier militias, belligerent street gangs, and more militant fundamentalist groups scattered across the US.

> Niqqa... The Military would run these settlements. Mercenaries... Please. You would have some military units pretending to work for some state official but the rest would just rule a fiefdom.

I guess so, I could see a fair number of militiamen and scattered military veterans/active duty soldiers forming small groups and working for settlements or larger factions.

> Surely not all of them. Sure some would be Raiders_2k17 edition but a lot of them would end up as forced labour for military/police factions or flat out executed by their guards before abandoning their posts.

Absolutely, but I'm pretty confident at least a third, if not more, of the surviving prison population would be willing to go bandit, and that's not counting the millions of thugs, sadists, and drug abusers that would gladly fall in with any roaming ex-con hordes.

I know, but Veeky Forums is brilliant about this sort of thing and I figured it'd be best to ask here before I started worldbuilding.

> *(2/2)

And checked.

The Midwest/Great Lakes region of North America would consolidate into its own nation/group of confederate nationstates depending on how well they get along. Ohio & "that state up north" might war a bit the Midwest is the most self sustainable place in America. Ports/riverways/fishing/hunting/crops/industry/mining/just everything.

Columbus Ohio would be the natural capital of the new nation because it is literally the fall back capital of the USA. A created city, built to handle a huge population before it even had a huge population, also centralized in the region.

All i can really contribute to is Utah and Virginian and you seem to have the first decently well figured out and I figure the second would just go to absolute shit to the point where it wouldn't exist as a proper power so much as a badlands full of small murderous tribes.

One thing I would point out that while people always think of Utah specifically, Idaho also has a pretty large Mormon population. I could see it very easily being pulled into the Theocracy.

>trying to insinuate that Mormonism is similar to Radical Jihadism

Don't worry about it my man. I am german and I have no dog in this fight.

>I meant the hundreds of small but ambitious /pol/-tier militias, belligerent street gangs, and more militant fundamentalist groups scattered across the US.

These militias quickly would join police/military formations or hunt the bands of roving looters you imagine.

>I guess so, I could see a fair number of militiamen and scattered military veterans/active duty soldiers forming small groups and working for settlements or larger factions.

In areas with little economic/military value. There I could actually see independent areas/city states with mercs or their own militias. There your fundamentalist factions come into play and you can have a crazy bland of /k/ innawoods fundamentalist christian raiders.

>Absolutely, but I'm pretty confident at least a third, if not more, of the surviving prison population would be willing to go bandit, and that's not counting the millions of thugs, sadists, and drug abusers that would gladly fall in with any roaming ex-con hordes.

Waaay to much my man. The ones who actually would go the route of marauding bands are probably the ones in supermax prisons. The prisons where additional security would be stationed in case of breakdown or where the government would authorize mass executions before shit goes down.

Most other people imho would try reaching home banding together in groups trying to reach the same area. More desperate refugees willing to kill for food and not raiders n thugs.

A more interesting thing might be prison guards taking their families in and starting to sell of the prisoners as "voluntary labour for rehabilitation purposes".

It depends on the level of pulp you want though. A high level of pulp would justify a marauding prison population. Otherwise you would have a refugee crisis type on crack situation with internally displaced people.

Regardless of what happens Switzerland would be the same.

>all the militias would join police and military

Militia man here, can confirm that we would join with the national guard, and that if any of us tried to go full mad max the others would probably shoot him. I don't know about the militias in other states, but we signed up here because we wanted to protect our families and communities if things went to shit. We aren't going to go raiding. Well OK, if I could I would go raid the Californians, because fuck them, but I'm not going to be a dick to my own people.

I think most of the small time druggies, gangsters, and prison escapees would fall in with the Mexican cartel, which is more than armed and numerous enough to start raiding and pillaging the countryside, at least in the Deep South. What's interesting is if the military/law enforcement fell out of power, all of the old biker gangs, the Hell's Angels, Cossacks, and Mongols would congregate and be ransacking the countryside and then some, it'd be like a historic Mongol horde and then some. There'd definitely be a lot of overlap between the Banditos and the Mexican cartel though.

Fuck commiefornia, those bastards would be cartel property in three months, max. See how far their assault rifle ban gets them then.

Also I assume you all have family and you are pretty much bound to your local area.

Not ideal to go around raiding/mercing/building weird societies.

Seriously, the world has a lot to learn from Switzerland.

Pretty much yeah. Just about all of the local militia are family men.

Switzerland would change, they have their own problems, but their geography makes them fairly secure from outside influences so assuming they stayed together they could resist a post apocalyptic scenario fairly well.

I'd say our hypothetical Mormon state (Second State of Deseret?) would be Utah, southeastern Idaho and a couple Nevada and Wyoming border counties. See this map.

>Possible issues for the Second State of Deseret:
Water rights would be a big one - war between Deseret and the city states of Phoenix and Las Vegas?

On a similar note, gaining enough farmland to feed to state's population.

Conflict between Mormon fundamentalists (polygamy, war on "gentiles") and mainstream LDS

Non-Mormon communities joining Deseret for protection from raiders, tyrants, etc.

>Utah

Well most mormons aren't like this but the ones in my hometown are totally nuts doomsday preppers.

I'd go find a creek and fish for food, well setting up a farm for long term stuff.

The only issue is that the hills would be filled with people protecting their bunkers


So Utah either becomes Zion, or the doomsday preppers get to act smug until society comes back

>I think most of the small time druggies, gangsters, and prison escapees would fall in with the Mexican cartel, which is more than armed and numerous enough to start raiding and pillaging the countryside, at least in the Deep South.

>small time druggies

Tf my man. Don't be so ideologically blinded. Small time druggies would try to reach their family/friends. Most either would stop using (weed, a lot of cokeheads, ecstasy etc. or whore themselves out). Actually killing people takes a certain mindset most druggies don't have.

>gangsters and prison escapees

They might join the cartel in some cases. Others would stick with their prison crew or try reaching their families. Also I think the cartel wouldn't just accept every bumfuck inmate. They would quickly develop standards.

>Hell's Angels, Cossacks, and Mongols would congregate and be ransacking the countryside and then some

If they would attempt that shit they would quickly bleed themselves dry. These dudes aren't military. They would have guns, cars and motorcycles. Pockets of remaining law enforcement, militias and even fucking farmers could wipe out a whole chapter in a well done trap with a few Molotov cocktails and rifles.

>Fuck commiefornia, those bastards would be cartel property in three months, max. See how far their assault rifle ban gets them then.

>Cartel would invade the former USA after it just lost its weapons exporter and main market
>against army units and the national guard


Noooooo my dude.

>what factions would rise up and take its place
Pathfinder players vs. the people who dislike it because it's popular

Define doomsday prepper. I have a bit more than a years food and water in sto rage that I rotate out to keep it good, but I don't consider myself a doomsday prepper persee. Just putting some of my surplus away for a rainy day is all. Most Mormons I know do the same. Some have more than others, but most Mormons I know have food storage to some extent. It's literally a teaching of the religion.

Like so obsessed with preparing that it eclipses a large portion of their lives

You mean like a fifth of Veeky Forums?

So my buddy Jin with his bootlegged 50cal then?

> "doomsday prepper"
> only one anti-material rifle

Pleb taste desu

my state (florida) would essentially revert back to how it was in the 1800s...most of our trade would be exporting sugar cane and oranges as well as aerospace components to other local governments that could still use them. We would probably be ruled much the same way by local state government although I think they would have to relocate power from Tallahassee.

But wouldn't Cuba invade once shit went down?

The vast majority of people would go to simple farming or rural existences guarded by local militias. There would be bandits and possibly a local organization you give tribute to for protection. Most people would just try to live their lives

If society collapsed, human civilization would be eternally stuck at a 1700-level development, because all material needed for modern-life is deep mined. All the surface deposits are gone. All you have left is piles of rusting, corroded, useless pig-iron, and no way to access fresh materials, regardless of technological ability. Just because you know how doesn't mean you can.

Just because NY dumps their garbage onto Newark doesn't mean NJ is shit. Hell NY relies on NJ for their groceries (look at all the ports).

Also most of NJ is covered in forested hills and suburbs.

The Pine Barrens are full of white survivalists and satanic cultists sacrificing yuppies to the Jersey Devil.

>He's also convinced that the majority of the US's prison population, 3 times the size of China's military, would escape and organize into large marauding gangs and begin to exert their influence, like a less efficient and poorly equipped, but more brutal version of the military factions. I feel that's extremely likely

This is fucking retarded, because of two things:

1. If all the apocalyptic shit you described happened, the prisoners would all be dead because nobody released them and when the guards left they stopped getting food.

2. If they WERE released, they wouldn't be an organized bloc of "prison folk"; they would seek out the people they knew outside of prison and become "member of that group who used to be in prison until the apocalypse".

Excluding the possibility of a foreign country taking over, which is pretty fucking slim, breakdown of the federal government would, after a good long series of small local wars and a few thousand politician lynchings, cause the states to re-organize and become something rather similar to Patrice Oneal's United Areas Of America.

youtube.com/watch?v=gZbzncPXIUY&t=1180s

The states would have no reason to follow the original format.

Cartels v SCIENTOLOGY

in a word...no. their navy is almost non existant. I could see florida doing a lot of trading with them however in a near or post appocalypse setting.