Now that the LINK moon is petering out, can we talk about this FUD? First off the ROI is probably too high. It assumes all tokens are released initially (before 1/2 the worlds moneys are flowing through chainlink powered smart contracts), and the fees thing is pretty much entirely bullshit.
Additionally I worry about the token velocity problem and I'm not sure enough tokens will be in nodes to let the asset appreciate. I'm beginning to think the real strategy for linkies is going to have to be sell at the top of the hype moon, because that will take us higher than the fundamentals would ever allow.
(Actually I glanced at this last night and got worried, but reading it again now its obviously retarded).
>but reading it again now its obviously retarded It absolutely is.
That pic assumes that every percentage would remain the same regardless of the price per Link. Which is retarded as all hell.
Charles Richardson
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Jonathan Morales
I don't know, I still get an uneasy feeling about it. If the price of link gets too high, the price of staking a node sufficiently seems like it would become way too high to be reasonable.
Kevin Fisher
It just feels like it couldn't possibly settle above more than a few bucks just because if a good percentage of the link were to be locked up the cost of staking a node (which we absolutely need because of the velocity problem) would be far beyond what we would think we could reasonably expect.
A few bucks isn't bad, I guess. I cost averaged into 22c, but I wonder if their is an argument for it to be any higher other than pure speculation.
Henry Lee
>If the price of link gets too high, the price of staking a node sufficiently seems like it would become way too high to be reasonable. The token is divisible to 18 decimals.
Link could be a billion per token, and you could still pay in dollar cents.
Carter Cook
Right but what if, for example, holding link increases node reputation up to 10k link.
Could hitting that point of diminishing returns possibly cost $100k if LINK were to get to $10? Seems really high to me, not to mention $10+ link.
Easton Adams
You have to understand that big institutions with a lot of money will be using chainlink to get secure a right information to the smart contracts which will be transacting high value. Therefore, I don't see a problem with link reaching high valuation, as it will be used also for high value transactions.
Noah Lee
I feel that. It kind of makes me wonder how much work sergey is putting in behind the scenes to get nodes up and operating.
Chainlink is the network of nodes. He won't give out a main net release date, and as far as I can tell, you can't actually set up a node right? Isn't it still some sort of test version? How is he going to expect to get hundreds of nodes up and running and ready for main net release date when no one even knows when it is?
Kevin Gomez
The initial implementation will be released in Q1 and sometime after that the main net. I believe his lack of communication with the community is a good sign as he is concentrated on getting projects and institutions to adopt Chainlink. At the end of the day it will be their use of this technology which will increase the value of the token.
Austin King
Everyone with half a brain assumes that, but it's important to try and understand how the node ecosystem economy will play out to understand what the price could reasonably be. This bubble is going to pop and it would be nice to have an idea of what a baseline valuation of LINK is going to be.
Carson Perry
In that case i would suggest you look up some articles that have been written on modum about Chainlink and how the nodes work. The information is available, you just have to look. You can even check the post on reddit to get a bit clearer picture.
Austin Foster
It is true however, that the in depth explanation has not been made public as far as I know.
Kayden Phillips
no, none of the information about the number of link node operators might have, the fees node operators will charge, how many nodes there will be initially, etc., is out there. Everyone is just guessing based on the few numbers we can try and assume and seem realistic and what the price would be given various scenarios.
You sound like you belong on r/ripple. Please go back to redd it/fa cebook.
Adam Morris
> Dash masternode cost 4k a year ago, now its worth 400k
Julian Allen
> He thinks that the value of LINK shouldn't cost alot to set up a node > LINK will be used with 90% of cryptos $110 pre link EOY
Carter Hughes
When the 19000 anons who applied to run nodes get an email to start their engines.
Carson Russell
>what if holding link increases node reputation up to 10k link. What?
Daniel Peterson
I think I got what you mean, but again: percentages and proportions will change as Link gains value.
People will always be counting in fiat when dealing with Link, at least partly. Same as people are counting BTC in fiat. Because fiat rules the world.
Brody Thompson
yea maybe I'm just estimating the amount that it would cost and underestimating the scope of sergeys vision. The average person probably won't be able to afford to run a node themselves. think eth staking will take like 1k ether, so maybe these numbers are more likely what we'll see with LINK.
Interestingly it feels like thomas has downplayed the effect of actual node "staking," and it seems like contract staking may actually be where more of the link gets locked in.
Obviously he's coordinating with multiple entities parties to launch the network. Don't tell me you really believe they fud here that's he's off vacationing and no where to be seen, lol. Stupid faggot.
Zachary Price
Data in our modern world is the most valuable thing there is and it's only getting more valuable. Providing that data to the most disruptive technology ever created will blow out all price expectations.
Isaac Williams
>you can't actually set up a node right? Isn't it still some sort of test version? The Ruby test version has been available on their website for months. The Golang test version is coming in Q1 of this year, and the release date for the final version has not been determined yet.
William Richardson
Of course not, but I just mean I wonder what the ratio of nodes set up by Sergey via the node incentive fund to nodes set up by people who are buying the link off the exchanges right now will be on the day of the main net launch.
Connor Wilson
contract staking and node staking is pretty much the same thing your node holds link, an assignment pops up, you and other nodes now bid with LINK on that assignment and the one who bids the most wins. the one who won now has the link he bid locked in the contract and if he fails the assignment he loses it, otherwise he gets it back + the link reward for completing it.
node staking is basically holding capital for bidding.
Jace Ortiz
I'm guessing those incentives are for big fishes Big fishes that want to keep their data private and run the node themselves but dont want to miss on the tech
"Amateur" nodes will get trival info like the time, weather(?, prices for things (crypto, event tickets, forex, whatever), and whatever yhey can get their hands on that is required for a contract The sky is the limit But loads of banking data is private and thats why theu need the incentive
Their usage of the network will be the backbone of LINK
I might be completely wrong though
Bentley Barnes
>the one who bids the most wins Nah, there are a lot more variables at play like reputation, how much Link is staked on your node, the client's personal preference, etc.
>node staking is basically holding capital for bidding I think you'll be able to use Link from a wallet for contract staking too.
Nathaniel Garcia
yes but the more link a node bids the more trustworthy he'll be because he stands to lose more if he fucks you up. with smart contracts there'll be no bullshit fraud, the node fucks you over, he loses all his shit no questions asked. that's why having LINK to stake and bid will be very important.
Thomas Cooper
>the more link a node bids the more trustworthy he'll be because he stands to lose more if he fucks you up Yes, that's a major variable. There are a few others though, I don't think it'll be a case of "whoever stakes the most Link on a contract, wins that contract". Though this exact thing might also happen, of course.
Carter Martinez
Author of this "FUD" here. Worked in valuation professionally and now a software engineer. I'm not very good at either though so feel free to spit in my face. Yes the assumptions are pulled from thin air but the important thing is to try to back into any assumptions that could support a eg $100 billion valuation and then try to assess likelihood. IMO we would only get there based on speculative mania but I hope I'm wrong.
Julian Kelly
I pretty much agree with all of this. Sergey is keeping all of these numbers under wraps super tightly. I want to say simple supply and demand will take care of it but I wonder if calibrating all of these numbers is in fact the biggest challenge in doing what he's trying to do.
Levi Peterson
One thing my analysis doesn't take into account is the supply reduction of I think some 350mm tokens that will be sold directly to large institutions for (I think) User smart contracts. I would imagine there would probably being a restriction preventing those from being sold on the open market, but after they get sent to a CL node what happens to them is anyone's guess. If you're a User SC owner you have two choices: if you don't hoard LINK you're exposed to currency fluctuation and so hoarding LINK is a hedge. Alternatively you can hope that monetary velocity will be sufficiently high to keep price down and instead buy on the open market using something like 0x or kyber.
Carson Turner
There also will be currency risk from the node operator perspective. Suppose I operate a node, I have the choice whether to price my service at a fixed rate in LINK or dynamically in LINK pegged to another coin or to fiat. If the User SCs don't hoard LINK and LINK moons, transacting becomes economically unfeasible. If instead the User SCs do hoard LINK and LINK moons and assuming they don't have a restriction on dumping their LINK to the open market, then there is the chance that it would be more profitable for them to dump their LINK rather than query the LINK node...
