The artificially low interest rates shown by the red arrow are what inflated the bubbles that caused the 2008 financial...

The artificially low interest rates shown by the red arrow are what inflated the bubbles that caused the 2008 financial crisis, the worst economic event since the great depression. The orange arrow shows the current artificially low interest rates, much lower than those shown by the red arrow and sustained for four times as long. How big will the crisis be when this bubble bursts?

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This worries me.

>asking an algerian grooming and wellness forum about interest rates

Not too long. Bonds will fall and the dollar will collapse. Crypto/Gold is a good hedge.

not too sure about the US economy, but keep in mind that the ECB is still holding on to their 0-interest policy.
as soon as they increase the interest rate (significantly, not by like 0,1%) a lot of businesses (zombie-firms only staying in business because of cheap money) will not be able to pay back their loans. this will trigger a chain-reaction and plunge the economy into a huge crisis.

i can't fucking wait to buy up some cheap real estate.

the fed is steadily raising rates now
we will be fine

What are you using as a hedge in the meantime? I'm not gonna put the entirety of my net worth into crypto but also wouldn't wanna hold it on a bank account.

Voice narrative: "they called it The Big One. It was very big"

>What are you using as a hedge in the meantime?

not op, but I have 80% in equities, 10% in cash and 10% in bonds right now.

as soon as the ecb stops quantitative easing, I'm starting to sell equities for cash. when the crash happens, I'm going to pick up equities and real estate for cheap. at least that's the plan.

100k in gold (probably more right now) and 100k in crypto. the point of crypto is to make as much as possible before the crash.

while i hope crypto is a good hedge against an economic crisis i am not 100% convinced. if anything i can see utility tokens being affected the least by a crash (ETH, LINK, NEO, KCS, anything you can "stake" really)

>while i hope crypto is a good hedge against an economic crisis i am not 100% convinced.

It will go down with the stock market for sure. Private investors will pull out 100% of their stack as they run out of money (which is the day after they lose their job) just to be able to pay their bills.

Thanks for sharing, mate. I'm currently just letting my funds for on a decent rate saving account because I don't feel like risking them on the stock market for weak returns when the bubble could pop any time. Was interested in bonds and equities, but I gotta research them more thoroughly. Maybe some land.

Thanks. I'm not too sure about gold, it might crash any day and it's been bleeding for a while now. It might be good during a recession, but it also might not. It's honestly very overvalued for what it is.

Crypto might work as a hedge, but in its current state it's gonna crash just as bad as everything else. It needs to gain status as a legit value transfer vehicle instead of just a speculative volatile market before shit hits the fan.

>funds for
funds rot*

Reminder that Austrian Economics is correct.
Reminder Keynesian economics is wrong.

End the FED

>I trust the FED to make wise economic decisions

Honestly some sound speculation in this post, it's going to be hard to say what will be an effective hedge when the big one blows. But my money will still be on gold just due to the fact it's where fiat piles in before it dies, overvalued or not.

post hoc ergo propter hoc

the reason for this is free trade, and it's a good thing overall

I really have no idea what would happen to gold if a recession hits now. Big boys are gonna be buying it, but they might be in already. And younger people don't really care about gold. Recessions have often sent gold downwards so it's not as safe shot as we might initially think
macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

But still, owning something physical that has real utility value and isn't overvalued like gold might be the best shot. Real estate is overvalued. Land might not, I'm not sure. Some industry metals might keep their value well.

Welp, fiat shouldn't be the worst thing to hold during a recession. Unless we see catastrophic hyperinflation, most other things are gonna drop in value just as much.

They can't raise rates, the whole world - people, businesses and governments - are in the greatest amount of debt in history. You'd think the 'credit crunch' would have lead to a crunch on credit but nope, the bubble was just reinflated.

>wage stagnation is a good thing guys

>The artificially low interest rates shown by the red arrow are what inflated the bubbles that caused the 2008 financial crisis

Not what happened, learn what youre talking about before you try and make some deep point faggot

gold isn't over valued

this.

t. keynesian retard

Why? It's not useful for most any things, only a tiny fraction of its market cap constitutes of industrial use.

He's actually right, the bubble itself was mostly caused by a bunch of other faulty policies and regulatory fuckups. Low interest rates just allowed it to continue. Necessary but not sufficient for the crash.

Bitcoin has historically mooned in countries undergoing substantial economic turmoil because when fiat is in question, people try to buy up anything that will be worth something.

I wonder why 08-09 was called the subprime mortgage crisis and not interest-rate-too-low-m8 crisis

Because the scumbags who caused the problem named it?
Man you're an idiot.
Go suck Janet Yellen's dick.

Where did the credit come from to pump the sub prime market? if it wasn't sub prime it would have been some other malinvestment - that's what artificially low interest rates cause

wtf is someone smart doing on Veeky Forums?

gold is a terrible hedge and people saying that it's good in a recession are retards who don't do research and believe the first thing they hear.

Try to find shit that let's you bet on increased volatility if you want to hedge for a crash.

>gold is a terrible hedge
it's doing pretty good right now

as is pretty much the entire market, do you know what a hedge is?

What about Oil? Surely Oil shouldnt crash?

> oil can't crash
how new are you?

Honestly I have no clue. I'm not as well-versed in the topic as I should be. But eventually we're moving away from oil.

I think he was talking the short term.

The sad reality is that most of us here aren't knowledgeable enough of economics.

Idk its 65 USD a barrel, we literally need it for everything, the supply is constantly diminishing. Could it really crash to 10 USD?

Gold standard was fucking retarded
The real reason is that globalization killed power of labor which meant they cannot fight for higher wages anymore

it actually is, there is no reason to give entitled wagecucks any more money than you're required to pay by the market

do you understand how the free market works?

Yeah cool whatever, but you also just feed populism that way until something breaks big time. World War level of conflict.

finally a good post
good thinking, i agree with you, where are you from?

When do y'all think the crash will happen? Do you think I can make it until April and then or me market before I pull out my funds? I get long-term capital gains then.

Also I hold a good bit of Baba and I think that in the long-term that companies going to make it but I'm not sure if it will dip with the US economy if we crash as well. Should I sell those funds?

Just give them bread and circuses

it doesn't take much to placate a shitskin

Oh look a leftycuck found his way to Veeky Forums

>Gold standard was fucking retarded
Then why did the industrial revolution in USA happen under a deflationary gold standard?

Why did the post war economic boom happen under a semi-gold standard?
Why has everything gone to shit since we got off the gold standard?

>power of labor
LOL fucking embarrasing
Unions are terrible and should have their "rights" stripped away.
If all businesses paid their workers 10 dollars more RIGHT NOW it wouldn't increase anyone's living standards or allow people to buy more shit, it would simply cause inflation.
It was a somewhat sound currency in the 50s and 60s that granted us higher living standards, not unions.

You don't understand economics at all.

>muh labuurrr, we FOUGHT for those higher wages
It's a religion with you people isn't it?

and that global growth was caused by cheap money...which was caused by...getting rid of the gold standard.

>supply is constantly diminishing
theres 200 years worth of confirmed oil reserves, if OPEC didnt exist oil would be $20-30 a barrel by now, there is literally too much fucking oil

some guy in 2014 was making the same skewed assumptions, but with it being 100$ a barrel and got rekt, oil sjeiks can dump the prices on a whim and I believe long term we'll move away from oil (last part is 100% speculation).

I think using Volatility Index Funds to predict rising vol is a good way to hedge for a crash and it's an actual hedge, not something that will just keep it's value while all else crashes.

>Why did the post war economic boom happen under a semi-gold standard?
>Why has everything gone to shit since we got off the gold standard?
correlation does not imply causation, the gold standard is shit and i'm right wing economics as it gets

Guess what year the rates will be high again (crash time): 2020... ELECTION YEAR! :^)

oil is a dead industry, they thrive on other industries innovations, read levitt's marketing myopia he talks about the oil industry there

Interest rates kept low during Obamas presidency. Kek they really didn't want him to fail

>the fed is steadily raising rates now
we will be fine
Dude they've kept the rates artificially low for such a long time with little to no result. Unless Trump can manage a total recovery during his first term you're fucked.
How's your debt and what will increased interest rates impact USA and it's people?

i disagree with your claim on unions to a certain degree.

If a libertarian philisophy was actually adopted for economics, unions have their place to be the regulating private party outside of government regulation.

you bet your ass I would pay an organization to negotiate my contract and ensure my job is safe if the government isnt going to make laws for it. This is the truist form of what capitalism should be.

user, do you hate easy money? If not then join-,.

discord dot gg/6ddqFHd

ASE is a meme economics ,nothing more. none in academics and actually serious economists think it is a legit economic thoght.

stop forcing this bullshit

you wany to turn everything into fiat before a dollar crash? why

generally when 1 market crashes all others suffer as well, also it's impossible to predict the exact time of a crash.

should I buy gold or go all in on TVIX and leave just enough money to buy a gun

>I think using Volatility Index Funds to predict rising vol is a good way to hedge for a crash and it's an actual hedge, not something that will just keep it's value while all else crashes.
Thanks, I was oblivious to their existence but they seem like a good option for the short term.

>we will never see another crash in our lifetimes, goy.

>When do y'all think the crash will happen?
No one knows.

We've been in a crazy bull-market (with a small exception in late 2015) for the last 7 years.

I almost pulled out when Trump won the presidency; now I'm glad I didn't.

The ECB is already pulling back (a little) on buying shit bonds, so my guess is that they will start raising interest rates in late 2018 or early 2019, which is when I'm starting to liquidate.

Bretton Woods is not the gold standard. Bretton Woods was the death of gold standard, not a "semi-gold standard", you fuckface.

Everything has gotten to shit because in the 70s the fucking boomers decided to kill inflation and start sitting on their assets as they got more and more value over the years. Gold standard, fuck gold. It is a fucking shiny rock, you could tie your money to anything you cannot just print more and have same effect as gold standard.

You know after the war, everyone wanted full employment for your nations? Because war just happened, and nobody wanted another fucking world war out of misery and grief of the poor again. So everyone got a job. Until boomers got greedy enough and decided that they were content and killed full employment. Also globalization came and killed power of labor, which means that everyone needs to use credit to keep their purchasing power which means debt just skyrockets.

Maybe just stay in fiat, that's what I'd do if I wasn't willing to spend my time researching the alternatives. For all I know so far it should be an ok choice (might even go up during a recession) and lets you buy back into the speculative markets that crash even harder.

why is any volotile investment a good hedge?

he is not wrong, i mean too low interest rates was one of the many things that go bad, including liberalisation fo us economy .

no, but I'm a risk averse fagget so what do I know
yes, just don't hold them long term or you might lose a lot of money

I imagine I will still hold about 25% of my portfolio in crypto. Which is what it is now.

Yeah I guess Baba is kind of pegged to the tech Market. Every time Nvidia or Amazon take a dip baba takes a dip as well

Well hopefully I can make it until I get long-term capital gain so I can take everything out at once. This is my first year investing and I already got 25% Roi it's kind of scary to me I don't feel like that's normal

Jewish marketing.

its mostly about debt.
banks print money, fed prints money, and your currency gets devalued. meanwhile theres a ton of (((credit))) floating around so everything get inflated.
gold standard at least stopped everyone printing like mad, unlike now.

wasn't dropping the GS idea following Austrian economics

why does your comment contradict the pic included

The term subprime doesn't have to do with Fed reserve interest rates you brainlets. It has to do with bundling mortgage payments of people with bad credit scores and using them for CDOs.

The "artificially low interest rate" was due to the dotcom crash, are you really this new?

>Oil is a dead industry
It has declined but is nowhere close to dying. For convenience I'm going to combine oil and natural gas in this conversation. Natural Gas power plants are being built as we speak which guarantees its use for another 20 years. Roads need oil to be paved and created. Boats and aircraft need oil. Utility vehicles need oil, and when it comes every day life you need natural gas
for the vast amount of plastic products we use.
We use GDP to back the USD now. I never really thought about it, but if you do, using GDP of a country for credit ratings implies the Government owns the capital being produced in the US

>The ECB is already pulling back (a little) on buying shit bonds

No they haven't, they're holding back the helicopter money but are still buying shit bonds and pumping up stocks. BOJ is the worst though, 60% of the japanese stock market is on their balance sheet.

Here have a free tip: your money is in israel, go ask them to give it back.

People call crypto a bubble but the american stock market is a far more obvious one. Government dumping trillions of dollars into the markets while simultaneously coking private businesses through taxes and regulations.

Can you explain more about the volatility fund. Why is it risky to hold it long term (or until a crash happens)

>This worries me.
Why?
It's a perfect opportunity to make money.

Serious economists are saying central banks should go with negative interest rates when the next recession hits...

Keynesianism will go the way of communism in a few years and all the """serious""" economists that supported it will finally get called out.

This is retarded. The two red sections of low rates can be seen FOLLOWING the economic crises of 2007/8 and 2000, rather than the cause they are the response to the two crashes.

Yet QE throws, what trillion dollars?!?, loads of money into the system and there is NO INFLATION
It is INSANE!

Whelp... I guess their announcement from Oct 2016 doesn't mean shit then. It could be related to the US tax reform, but who the fuck knows what's going on in Draghis head.

in the long term they tend to lose money, in a slow bull market (kind of like right now) your money gets siphoned away and you'll have to keep reinvesting if you want to keep the same % of your portfolio hedged. Also they are pretty much guaranteed to lose money in the long run because of the way they are structured.They are only really profitable when crashes happen, just look at the all time chart for VIX. "You might lose a lot of money" is a bit of an overstatement, but it never hurts to be aware of the risks.

As long as he keeps his poker face, the markets will stay calm.
Atleast that has been the game plan since "Whatever it takes".

>correlation does not imply causation
Then "muh more powerful labor unions" is also a non argument.
If the gold standard is so bad for economic growth, why did we have these massive economic booms under gold standards?
You can't refute this.

Unions have a role to play in free markets but a minor role.
also the company itself has a financial incentive to provide a safe workplace(they can lower wages this way)

>ASE is a meme economics ,nothing more.
lol then why are they the most accurate school?
Why is modern economics such a fucking joke?
Modern economics WANTED the housing bubble to happen, it's embarrassing. You people don't have a leg to stand on.

>and actually serious economists
The same fucking neo-keynesian retards who caused the crash and are currently destroying the economy with low interest rates?

What kind of absolute brainlet would listen to these idiots?
What a gullible tool you are.

>wasn't dropping the GS idea following Austrian economics

No, not even slightly. Austrian economists are almost universally in favor of a gold standard.

mises.org/library/case-100-percent-gold-dollar-0

Fucking this.
These dumb fucks use the appeal to authority fallacy all of the time.
They're too dumb to think for themselves lmao

There's no inflation for 2 reasons, the banks are simply hoarding this money because they know it will cause massive inflation and because USA has the world reserve status and exports most of it's inflation anyway

>The term subprime doesn't have to do with Fed reserve interest rates you brainlets. It has to do with bundling mortgage payments of people with bad credit scores and using them for CDOs.
lol it doesn't fucking matter
Without trillions of dollars created by the fed and pumped into this market, there would be no subprime.
These malinvestments WOULDN'T HAPPEN.
Neo-keynesians, I swear.

Gold standard or crypto standard.

So, you are just going to ignore the fact that it is still used as reserves by most major financial institutions?

>Bretton Woods is not the gold standard.
Notice I called Bretton Woods a semi-gold standard you absolute fucking brainlet.
During Bretton Woods, central banks were still bound by gold because they could print money, but they had to pay back everything in gold.
It was a semi gold standard.
The US government got in too much debt in 1970 and said fuck it and said they weren't paying anything back in gold, and this resulted in massive inflation.

>Everything has gotten to shit because in the 70s the fucking boomers decided to kill inflation
TOP KEK AHAHAHAHA
Are you actually saying the hyperinflation of the 70s is a good thing?
Are you saying inflation in general is a good thing?
Wages and savings for the working class going down is good?
kys

>Gold standard, fuck gold. It is a fucking shiny rock
Used as currency and a store of value.

>you could tie your money to anything you cannot just print more and have same effect as gold standard.
Not everything, with crypto, yes.
But we just developed the technology to use crypto.

>full employment.
Full employment is a keynesian myth.
You keynesians deserve free helicopter rides just like the commies do.
>Also globalization came and killed power of labor
I already explained that this is irrelvent and giving labour more power will not increase real wages.
Prove me wrong, you literally cannot.

>which means that everyone needs to use credit to keep their purchasing power which means debt just skyrockets.
You're the one that supports this debt slavery economy in the first place.
Keynesians hate savings and love debt.

I mean. US treasury holding 8k tonnes, Eurosystem total reserves almost 11k tonnes, Russians and Chinks accumulating it substantially past decades. They all must be stupid, holding such worthless overvalued assets. Better buy those bonds instead.

Why do keynesians always get BTFO?
Keynes even got his math wrong.

we're never going back to the gold standard, it's a waste of time discussing it

What did well during the 2008 crisis? I don't know, asking honestly.

Me personally I think gold is safest SoV (other than water, tp and canned shit in SHTF scenario), rest is in crypto. We've never seen what happens to crypto in the event of a collapse.

pp say this for like 5+ years now and nothing happened, i dont know why inflation remains low btw

Protection against crashes and inflation? And when it failed at that? Past years it underperformed, but there was no crashes and inflation was very low.

What's equities

I know, we're going to go on a crypto standard instead and it's going to be glorious.

I can't wait for space elevators and 2 day work weeks.

Inflation IS good
It forces people to invest because holding is stupid
It eats debt
It allows you to actually have interest rates

You're wrong, Keynes has the pedo smile too and that nose.. I'm pretty sure you zoomed out he'd be rubbing his hands together.

We don't need rules and regulations, maybe on a local and state level re violence but I don't 'need' a job or Fiat stability if I can exchange my labour for a deflationary currency.

It's just going to be another lost decade and inflation will be kept away via wage stagnation and mortgages will go up. We know this cos 09 onwards has been the same shit, remember when bernake said "I'll charter helicopters and throw money out over Manhattan if inflation doesn't increase" not verbatim, but you get the idea.

Obviously the only thing that should be getting thrown out of helicopters are commies, what attracted you to cryptos if the deflationary meme isn't your thing?

>S

for Keynes

cant be fucked to read the whole thread but as an economist i feel obliged to respond.

a quote thats stuck with me over the years came from my upper level macro professor who is admittedly a bit of a radical.

"Class, why do we study economics?"

"We study economics to avoid being deceived by other economists"


If you want smoke and mirrors look at the competing theories of economics itt and ask your selves the motives of the schools of thought behind them.