$20k will just seem like a bad dream where we are going. Satoshi is going do deliver Lambos to the faithful of 2018
Who happy /it’s over/
>he thinks it's over
Curious what the median value of that is.
>He finally sold.
>Monte Carlo simulation
>It could go up or down.
Might as well just flip a coin.
How can I view the best case graph and the worst case graph on their own without the ones between blurring it up?
most of the squiggly lines are above 10k
It's a meaningless garbage-in garbage-out simulation that assumes that the volatility in bitcoins price is somehow related to its past volatility. The fatal flaw of this approach is that the entire bitcoin market is based off of public hysteria and thus future predictions based on past performance is more than likely going to get thrown way the fuck off by a mass panic buy or sell.
Also, $1m is literally impossible. How the hell are people going to buy hard enough into bitcoin to match the us national debt in market cap? The money has to exist before it can be thrown into crypto.
The point is majority of the simulations trend upwards above 10k. You can count about 5 that go significantly lower than $10k. You're basically flipping a coin that is heavily favored to land heads over tails.
Every time this slows for a day or so and has a little bounceback, they sigh in relief, actually thinking that it's turning around, and not noticing that every step up has been shallower, and every step down has been deeper...
Pumping now sir
What % of the time are these simulations right across all markets where they're used?
Look at where the lines start. Clearly, we took one of the lowest lines.
Even if you believe in those meme scribbles, we're not going above $10k for another year or so.
reminder, crypto isnt based in pleb america
Pump it chads. Let's save Veeky Forums
Marketcap is a meme. All 17 million coins don't need to be bought at 1 million for the Market cap to be what it would be
crypto encompasses the world, nigger. Not just the US
You're not allowed to post in this thread unless you've used monte carlo methods before.
>we simulate da geometric brownian motion and got a high prediction number
>HURR MUH 1mm/BTC is totally plausible buy now
anyone fucking stupid enough to be taking predictions from a first-year undergrad level meme Brownian motion simulation deserves to lose all their money
>protip: if you extend a highly volatile geometric brownian motion based off BTC's former parabolic run (now violated) you're going to get a high number. Just like if you extended DDD's 2015 parabolic run, CSCO in 1999, etc. Retail investors always go apeshit for new tech they don't understand is actually useless...
But hey, Veeky Forums is right, I mean, any schmuck who bought useless internet money that literally does the same thing venmo has done for the past 3 years definitely deserves and will become a multimillionaire
(Yall definitely aren't about to get wrecked when CFTC and SEC announce they're banning this unregulated distributed ponzischeme shit on Tuesday)
The pic is a bunch of “random walks” from a Monte Carlo sim. I don’t know what he fed in as a test set, so it might as well be shit on a wall. Even if he did have a reasonable test set, it’s still just shit on the wall. This is crypto; not your 401k. Take a volatile market and put it through a sim and you get a wide cone of possibilities.
Be a believer in crypto or join gamblers anonymous.
where did you get your crystal ball from?