Technical analysis doesn't work. Stop wasting your time charting

So would investing in any crypto

Doesn't understand that it literally doesnt work.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2401230

Trying to undertand market psychology based on technical indicators doesnt work. Unless you can find any evidence it does?
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2401230

Cheeky lad doesnt respond to me because he knows I'm right

yes. don't buy rocks that ward off tigers unless you can throw an extremely accurate fastball.

Very interesting paper. Page 24 is interesting as to me it shows the actual behaviors that make these users, in particular lose.

>this negative factor loading on MOM indicates that the average investor in
our data trades as if they believe in short-term reversals, meaning that recent winners will
subsequently underperform.
In general, investors who report using technical analysis do not bet on trends, but instead
bet less on reversals than other investors.

Many oscillating indicators, like the RSI, actually tend to encourage people to bet against trend. This is not to say people should try to take contrary positions but all too often, we try to find tops and bottoms.

Trends exist in the market, you can see this visually, you don't extreme back-testing. But it's very counter-intuitive to sell something that is dropping in price, or buy something that is rising in price. Losing traders will often average down on massively losing positions, rather than cutting. Again, there are strategies which call for doing that, but many people just don't know what they're doing and end up with huge losing positions.

I personally think it's of more value to focus on what people are doing wrong, rather than having the blanket statement approach that "TA doesn't work".

*'this negative factor loading on MOM indicates that the average investor in
our data trades as if they believe in short-term reversals, meaning that recent winners will
subsequently underperform.
In general, investors who report using technical analysis do not bet on trends, but instead
bet less on reversals than other investors.'

That's from page 24

>This is not to say people should try to take contrary positions
*This is not to say people should NOT try to take contrary positions

>Beat 50/50 eth/bitcoin over the past 4 months
Easy, I didn't buy any because it was obviously a bubble when tards were saying shit like TA doesn't work.

On a serious note, that folio would be easy to beat with a modest knowledge of optimisation based on past trends between the two coins which requires TA to identify. The problem is you fuckers think it's just lines and rectangles when all you want is a big red or green number to stare at.

My challenge to you is to post one paper that demonstrates TA works for an individual investor.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_investing

you should look into momentum, it plays on the fact that there are trends in the market, and that they tend to continue

My point in the video isnt that TA doesn't work for anyone. It's that, statistics show that TA on average is a poor strategy.

I've successfully used TA in areas where no one else would be using TA i.e. RuneScape, Steam Trading Cards so that rules out group mentality. Human psychology is the same regardless of market. If an Armadyl Godsword falls to 40m after being at 50m for months, there's going to be major resistance at 50m because a lot of people will dump there to at least break even on their investment before the price of an AGS falls again.

I don't see any replies from you in the thread

>TA doesn't work
if only you had paid attention to the signs

What the fuck kind of challenge is that? You're being very specific about your challenge in that you're asking them to beat two coins that have been proven in the past 2 days to be in a bubble over a 4 month period leading up to its peak and it's only allowed to be a single investor to prove it?

The first thing I'd point is that you understand so little about TA that you don't realise that even though you're trying to be clever by making the challenge so difficult, you're not considering what I said about using TA to choose an optimal folio between those two coins alone to generate the best return based on their respective trends.

Assuming I'm a tard who knows TA and optimization and doesn't believe that BTC and Ethereum are both in a bubble. That folio would be defeated by any investor who invested 100% into ethereum.

This is when I got out today.
TA Doesn't work.

Survivorship bias. Find me one paper that demonstrates the validity of TA for individual investors.

Wait... Are you a fucking parrot? A peanut sized brain would be the only reason to explain this. You aren't capable of a rational discussion.

It really isn't a hard challenge at all. I nearly doubled the returns on a 50%btc 50%eth portfolio in that timeframe.

jokes on you i use tarot cards and astrology

If you think TA doesn't work in crypto you're a complete newfag. There is no argument to even be had here and typing this was a waste of time. Saged

No, the problem is you think it's a difficult challenge which is why you fucking said it. Because you're such a dumb retard that you actually thought you were being clever. But let's be honest, you're not after a smart audience.

.17 btc. Wow profits locked in bro. My point is, there are studies that show that individual investors underperform the market when using TA. If TA really worked then actively managed funds with huge resources would easily beat the market. Yet they fail to do so. Are you just more skilled than the summa cum laude ivy grads?

no it isn't a hard challenge, that is my point. I said don't even listen to them unless they can demonstrate that they have beaten even the most conservative portfolio. Not that big of a challenge. It is simply a filter between who you should completely disregard and who you shouldnt.

>if TA really worked
The fucking market is dominated by machines hardwired into the news making trades faster than you can even see them on screen using TA.

Sure, my video is talking about TA for individual investors. An individual charting is not going to work.

That is what people without an argument usually say. I would be willing to bet with you that my returns in the last 12 months are higher than yours. I am still waiting for just 1 person in this thread to post any research that supports the use of TA for individual investors.

You're boring. Can't even argue well.

You aren't even providing me anything to argue with. "pea sized brain" "here is my one sell order"
Good substance there buddy

How about whenever it really dips hard it panic recovers. There is no floor just read how people react to the current change whatever that currently may be. I sold an hour ago. I plan on buying back in after it dips back to 6k or 5k

I was the idiot arguing with you on your video and got bored/tired/annoyed at your same lines. I know how much money I've made trading stocks and currencies over the last 20 years. I know how I did it. I'd much rather have folks like you in the system who buy and hold, or flip a coin or do whatever it is your strategy is. But while you're sitting there fearing a dip, I sold it and re-bought at the low of the channel because I understand fibs and retracements and trends... and what happens to a commodity when whales want in.

Good Luck,

It is an extremely easy request. Post a single shred of evidence that shows that TA works for individual investors. I doubt you have made a significant income trading as you just bragged about trading $1200 dollars at a good time.

you know nothing and define insufferable.

At this point. I'm only replying so the entirety of Veeky Forums can see how ill-informed you are.

No more (yous)

are you saying doing the opposite of TA is better?

we were laughing our asses off at you on my discord.

what "evidence" can there be for many successful TA traders? are they going to call up random faggots in business school and verify their gains? this isn't your bill nye shit, wanker

quality argument there bud. I don't understand why you even bother replying if you arent going to provide any substance for your beliefs, once again im still requesting a piece of evidence that shows TA works for individual investors.

I want a study that compares how TA trader's portfolios perform compared to the market. No such study exists because if TA worked it wouldnt be some random individual traders that have mastered it, it would be large managed firms with all the resources in the world.

TA isn't a magical rigid formula to follow, it still requires lots of individual discretion, choice, and variation, and lots of hedge funds do employ all sorts of indicators and pattern recognition and things from TA in their strategies. i'm not sure why anyone being truly successful with TA would submit to business school studies like this in any large number. hedge funds don't disclose what strategies they're using in detail, although momentum investing is pretty similar to TA in many ways. lots of algos are invariably using tactics similar to ta also that may perform well or not well under different market conditions. there is no one "the market," there are lots of different markets all doing lots of different things in different cycles

The performance among actively managed funds has been researched in far more detail than individual investors. Actively managed funds under perform the market at a tremendous rate.

these tech analysis drawing memes are underrated af

so much commentary in something so stupid and easy

I only replied because I hate people who are as ignorant as this. I want people to think for themselves and consider everything.

Everyone needs to do their own research and learn for themselves. Do not listen to anyone. This is your money. TA isn't magic. Discipline is. Someone this short sighted will always lose in the long run. Consider all scenarios. And read. Then keep reading.You'll have more than 12 books on your shelf.

yeah i bet next you tell me magics not real get this fuckin joker out of here

...and you won't sound this stupid.

...and you won't sound this stupid./

You literally haven't made a single argument. Enjoy your .17 btc though master book reader.

We like to overthink things.

>What's wrong with your checks?
Too much soy

LOL
SOYBOYS WHEN WILL THEY LEARN?

For now and in this central bank enviroment