MARTIN ARMSTRONG

The Transitional Flight to Quality
armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-transitional-flight-to-quality/

How many of you follow Martin Armstrong?

>People will invest in the private sector and sell government bonds, smelling a default in the wind.We are more than likely going to get the first kneejerk reaction, where equities will DECLINE and people will rush into government bonds, even with negative yields. This should create the final bubble top in debt, and then it will reverse in a Flash Crash type move. Traditional people will buy bonds and lose a fortune. Others will sell their stocks at the lows and jump on short positions. This will set the stage for a crazy period that comes around every so often, measured in hundreds of years.

Please see pic related.
What a time to be alive.
Fortunes are made and lost at times like this.

Other urls found in this thread:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_astrology
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Not happening till 2019 to 2023ish

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2008 was the large deleveraging though.

So you think we'll see a rush to "quality" which this time won't be bonds, but stocks?

it will be crypto. watch don tapscott's talk at the jibrel conference

I am in the gold business because I believe this to be true. I missed 2008, I'm not gonna miss the next one. Most likely it will happen when the presidency changes, they'll dump it on the democrats when they take over office again.

No wtf the rush to quality is usually short term treasure notes or tbills cause they're risk free, or gold. Anything that's a hedge against equities

I have precious metals and crypto. More of both than 99% of the world population. I own lots of guns, ammo, and have stored away water, liquor, and tobacco. I have no idea what the fuck else I could do to hedge against the proverbial shit on the fan, but if this isn't enough, what's the point in trying.

I have nothing whatsoever invested in the stock markets and am not sure it's worth my time, unless of course it crashes to near 0 and I throw my silver etc. into it and become Buffet 10 years later.

>liquor and tobacco
imagine being so retarded that you waste money on cancer tubes instead of canned food

>quality is usually short term treasure notes or tbills cause they're risk free
>risk free
Really?
I believe 100% is cycles at this point.
This guy Martin Armstrong has convinced me.
His Socrates AI program called this market downturn to the day.
Look it up.

Can a smart user explain this to me since I’m a fucking brainlet?

>not understanding shit about human psychology

This man thinks he can time the market by overlaying the business cycle over a long term deleveraging curve, but fails to take into account many random variables involving government policy.

The window for the collapse is in my estimation 2018-2024, because recessions are nearly random in the timing of their occurrence, however the way the system is set up now the next big recession will collapse the house of cards.

Yeah the return is garbage on t bills, hardly make inflation but it's risk free.

We didn't fall into anarchy in 1923 and were not going to when the economy finally falls again. Just a lot of people will lose their retirements and crap like that. Planning for some Walking Dead style apocalypse is ridiculous.

Bump for some high quality bread.

there is 0 chance of a recession this year. the effects of reversal of QE will not be felt until at least a year and a half, and there will be massive federal stimulus in the form of tax cuts and infrastructure program not just in the usa but also other major countries. i think late 2019 even 2020 to 2024 is more accurate

>Just a lot of people will lose their retirements and crap like that.
Pension funds are already failing.
And not only here in the US.

Imagine being so retarded, the ownership of these items went over your head. Imagine being so fucking dumb, you made an ass of yourself to assume I would own all of these things and /not/ own long-term food.

Oh wait, you don't have to imagine anything. Grats, you win dumbest nigger of the thread award.

>The window for the collapse is in my estimation 2018-2024, because recessions are nearly random in the timing of their occurrence
Supposedly this time around it will be a collapse in fed government.
They are broke.
The private sector is supposed to do ok.

You guys don't get it, the republicans aren't going to let SHTF while they are in office, It'll happen around a year or two after they are out. Well have a democratic congress soon, and then a new president in 2020, that is when shit is really going to kick off.

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This says the opposite.

1929 is not even remotely comparable to what the GLOBAL economic crisis is going to look like in a country full of unskilled, lazy, Starbucks drinking consumers with no farm land and a population where 45% aren't going to get checks in the mail anymore from the gubment who are literally going to go riot rape and kill people almost overnight.

Wise the fuck up you fucking retarded cunt.

Just because the fed gov goes broke, does not mean states and counties will go broke too.
Although......Illinois and California are broke right now.
They are raising taxes on everything.
Even the miles you drive.

Its a another thread of idiots that think le End in Nei

I don't have to imagine anything because my country isn't on the verge of collapse, amerimutt

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_astrology

Market will crash during next sunspot cycle maximum as mercury traverses the sun and aligns with jupiter trust me

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My mom and uncle swear by this guy, they were telling me recently "if you got any bitcoin. you might want to sell. Marty said if bitcoin has a weekly closing below 9425, the rally is over.". This was almost 2 weeks ago and the weekly closing was around 8k.

this.
His AI program called the sell off in the DOW to the day.

Without America, you country would get ass fucked, dumbfuck.

>sunspot cycle maximum
The next 11 yr Solar cycle will be very weak.
We're heading into a Solar Minimum.
Civilizations collapse during those.
They expand during Warmings.
We have a lot of shit coming to a head at the same time.
Not least of which is this next Fourth Turning.

That’s not what HE said in the first place.
It’s Socrates ( AI ) that does the analysis . Breaking down from that number only means short term downtrend . In fact , the number that needs to be broken on a monthly closing basis for the market to turn bear long term is $3.400. And yes, this guy and his bot are legendary , in fact the number 1 in the world for the past 30 years .

Finally Veeky Forums is catching on to Armstrong. I went to his conference last year, this guy is on another level. I feel like he has single handedly turned economics into a real science.

when does this happen

Read my reply above . I’m a subscriber and understand how his reversal system works . Long term bear is only bellow 3400 on monthly closing basis .

Yes. I’ve been following him for 6 years . This guy knows how shit works better than anybody else .

So when shit hits the fan, sell everything, then buy everything back when the market has crashed

Here’s the important part , bellow 3400 ON A MONTHLY CLOSING BASIS .

What an unexpected pleasure to meet you here, Mr. M. III, a heartfelt thank you for your constant high quality analysis. I hope that everything's going well with you and your health continues to improve!

My Dad first disocovered his work after he lost a lot of money on Black Monday '87. Needless to say he was short during the 07-08 recession and made a lot of money while his colleagues (who would never listen to him) were contemplating suicide.

except in the last depression the govt came off the gold standard and started printing FIAT like crazy, so more like find the asset that cannot be inflated

The market won’t crash . The bot says it’s Gov Bonds crashing. This cicle goes from public to private . Again , it’s obvious now , look at the EU, China cooking its books , US gov debt , all other governments debt an liabilities . This call was made years and years ago by the bot.

>risk free

Not when inflation spikes and your shit treasuries lose half their value in real terms.

Gold, BTC is the new "risk free", and maybe some AAA foreign bonds not paid in USD,

So I should be in equities?

Gold?

I have very little cash but lots of stocks and gold.

There is a whole lot of hitting the gas into capacity constraints that will lead to nominal rate rises driven by the markets,” Dalio wrote. “We are in the part of the cycle in which the central banks’ getting monetary policy right is difficult and that this time around the balancing act will be especially difficult.”

While many investors are focusing on the U.S.’s potential economic strength in 2018, “we are focusing more on 2019 and 2020 (which is the next presidential election year),” he said in today’s post. “Frankly, it seems to be inappropriate oversight to not be talking about the chances of a recession and what that recession might look like prior to the next election.”

You think it’s him ? Can’t be .

Here is the Weekly DOW forecast array from the "Share Market Report" he released this morning. I definitely think this report is worth it for anyone who has at least 10 grand in their trading account, it will easily pay for itself over the next few years.

Here is the weekly DOW array from his "Share Market Report" he released this morning. I definitely think this report is worth buying if you have the money, but he'll probably reiterate a lot of it through the private blog on ask-socrates.com

Excelent point. How about BTC ? Gold ? Food for thought . Armstrong says blue chip stocks as well .

There are no leveraged institutions out there rn? Uhhh..

Just cause people defaulted 8 years ago doesn’t mean different people can’t today.

I last heard armstrong talk about Gold at a conference in vancouver last week. He didn't seem so certain that gold was ready to break out yet, we might still fall back below $1000.

So why is interbank lending at 0? Look at the FRED

This nigger is correct.

Those who think this market is over extended and due for an '08 style crash aren't putting this bullrun in context...

He says blue chip stocks , gold could be confiscated and cannot be moved trough borders anymore . I think BTC could be good too. In my mind , making some fast money with crypto , buying a remote property , chickens , guns , solar panels wind turbines, some blue chip stocks and perhaps some gold backed crypto .

He's not the only one who has suggested gold will dump to sub 900 before breaking out. From what I've read the general reasoning is Gold/Silver are the easiest assets on the books to liquidate.
When shit starts to hit the fan, we'll see a dump in PMs that will precede a crash as institutions try to shore up liquidity. If you have a look at historical prices of silver against recessions there are often correlations where silver eats shit right at the start. Then gains over the years following.

Regardless , I advise everyone to become daily readers of his blog.
armstrongeconomics.com

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I Know, I was talking long term .

nice tip, I could see that

>call treasuries shit
>btc is the new "risk free"

Wew

have you ever read "the road"?

the protags came onto an abandoned house which had a basement full of canned food, filtered water, and gold coins. The owner has long since died.

That'll be you.