Drawing lines on a computer screen predicts the future

>drawing lines on a computer screen predicts the future

This but unironically

TA is just a visual representation of market psychology.

This is a common misconception, that TA is meant to forecast the price

TA only forecasts whether a given support or resistance line has been broken or will be hit, and therefore whether it's a good time to buy or sell at the given time

Those who know how to use it do so in silence.

It's also not really for predicting the future. I mean it is but it isn't. To be a successful trader all you have to do is be right more than half the time, and you have to make at least as much money everytime you're right as you lose everytime you're wrong.

TA is very effective In helping me decide whether the direction I think the price will go for the next few hours is more likely to occur than not. That's it. Don't try to buy the bottom and sell the top.

tell us then, which way is price going

Real traders know how to manage their R/R, you dont have to be right more than your wrong at all. Keep your R/R at near 3:1 and you can lose 2 trades and have 1 winner and still be positive.

you know this actually kinda makes sense

but I don't think it's applicable to long term trading, since a lot of big long term price changes come from the technology and product

TA Fags have been saying 3000 since November

It's been going down for a while so most likely we will have a retracement up. I'd be looking to go long pretty soon once I see signs of a reversal. Overall trend is down though so I won't overstay my welcome. My trades only last 3-12 hours

I know all about good risk reward and buying close to support and cutting losses slightly below support. But I was keeping the jargon very very rudimentary for the TA brainlet doubters. With a 1:1 you only have to be right 50% of the time, that already blows people's minds because they think every successful trader knows exactly what the price will do 100% of the time

down to 3-4k

>drawing lines predicts an unknown variable

Drawing memelines is about using meme magic in order to cause a change in the current timeline just to get mad gains.

The key question though is --- when buy, when sell. What are "signs of a reversal"?

this guy gets it

I've given up trying to make people understand this. When combined with volume to show you whether or not a market is reacting to a certain area marked, it becomes very helpful.

Yet time, and time again, people think it will "predict" the future. It's to help with systematic entries and exits.

Well that's part of the learning process and way more than I could explain in 1 post, look into support and resistance levels.
But basically do the opposite of your gut instinct and you'll do alright. Statistics say something like 90% of daytraders fail to profit. That's because most think "oh shit btc is going up, I better buy."
No that's wrong. If it's already been going up for a long time time what are the chances it's going to keep going? Small. Much greater chance for a retracement.
Trading is really about probabilities. What're the chances price will continue doing what it's been doing vs reversing. And then based on your entries and exits you decide the probability yourself. Like previous user said you can be wrong 2 times and right once and still make money if you keep your risk/reward ratio at 3:1

Obligatory.

Look at a daily chart and draw the obvious downward trendline from about 20k, something simple as that.

You can:
a) Lie to yourself to fulfill some psychological aspect within you that needs to believe markets are entirely random, or...

b) see reality

People may have just decided to take profit at that trendline, in order to prepare for the EU situation.

The justification is important to be aware of, combine FA and TA, where possible.

I'm actually the biggest ta fag you'll find, the pic is just funny (from an actual book).

in the shortterm it tends to become a self fullfilling prophecy.

Markets aren't random, they're just operating based on variables beyond your brainlet capacity to predict. There's a reason finance uses supercomputers and large teams for their algos.

Some faggot drawing lines on a chart doesn't turn a profit.

I believed in meme magic to get Trump elected
I believe in meme voodoo lines that predict the future

Q user said it would go up.
Screencap this

Arbitrage, Statistical arbitrage, co-integration, spoofing, layering, fighting to have the best latency, the most efficient algorithms; those are all interesting things, but they're part of a different paradigm.

Markets are first and foremost about human behaviors, and herd psychology. Humans create support, resistance and trends (look into Momentum if you want to see "quantitative" approaches to trend following). Stop hunting exists in markets for the very fact that institutions know traders will place stops based on technical analysis.

In the case of bitcoin, you don't have to believe anything I'm saying. Again draw the trendline and you'll see for yourself.

Whether someone approaches something from a quantitative, fundamental, or technical point of view, the most important thing is to never bet what you can't lose, and try keep loses capped through some sort of systematic approach. TA is just one of many approaches that is meant to help with this.

/thread.

It does, people just don't know how to effectively map the lines out. 6-7k to 11.5k is a huge return

List of false assumptions:
>assuming bots follow any of this
>assuming humans follow this same voodoo
>assuming other humans follow the same method of voodoo as you
>assuming humans perform the same voodoo as you, at the same time, and then chooses to buy or sell based on this voodoo

Try and ignore all of your psychological predispositions and tell me what you see.

I'm no attacking what you think, you are right: NOTHING works all the time.

But what happened?

are you literally, LITERALLY, drawing lines POST HOC and then, stating that this works?

Guess what fartjob, we are:

ALL
LOOKING
AT
THE
SAME
CHART.

And since most people are similar animals, most people will come to similar conclusions.

Oh shit every single line from every single all time high goes to zero until it doesn't. That's overly simplistic.

You fool. Charts with that exact same line have been posted here all month.

I have no way of proving I had this trendline placed before the price reached point (I was actually hoping it would break through).

But, if you follow any guideline on TA trendlines, I'm essentially using the method where I draw from the candle wick of the high.

You don't have to. Literally everyone except that guy has seen nearly the same chart posted here every day. I've been following 22 loops charts which has been accurate since mid december.

Again, assuming other people are doing this.
Pro tip - they are not.

Had BTC gained at any other point, you would have done the same thing, drawn a line, and said, of course, it was obvious. We are all looking at the same chart XD

fud harder