Veeky Forums, I'm here to give you the reality check you need

Veeky Forums, I'm here to give you the reality check you need.

The crypto market is vastly, unsustainably inflated right now. No I'm not some buttcoin reject or salty nocoiner, and I do believe blockchain as a technology has a bright future, but it's time to get real. I'm just gonna muse about some numbers.

Coinmarketcap currently lists around 1500 different coins and tokens. Let's be generous here: Easily 90% of these are completely worthless. As I said, this is being generous.

Go on Cryptopia or any shitcoin peddling exchange of your choice. Pick almost any coin. Odds are it's completely useless, a coin which will never be adopted, is simply a me-too cashgrab or a take on an already existing and relevant coin which doesn't do things meaningfully different or better enough to exist. Almost all these coins have purely speculative value: 99% of buyers only get them because they expect an increase in value, not because of the use case. I hate this boomer favorite comparison but seriously, these coins are Beanie Babies.

The realistic value of all these coins is flat 0. Nothing, nada. They don't have a niche outside of speculation.

So only 10% of all coins, or 150, have any value. The current total marketcap of crypto is $420 billion. If we average it out, this means each useful coin has a market cap of $2.8 billion. With a b. Does this seem realistic to you? How many even have a testnet out, let alone a mainnet or a fully implemented product?

There's little to nothing other than hope. Hope that somehow these insanely inflated marketcaps will be justified. But for how many? Literally every single coin would have to be a rousing success and be used enthusiastically to justify even the current overall marketcap. Does that sound even remotely realistic to you?

It's time to wake up. Even under current circumstances, let alone in December, crypto is vastly inflated. Invest accordingly and don't come crying when your low mcap moonshot shitcoin goes tits up this year.

Other urls found in this thread:

coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage
archived.moe/biz/thread/7228543
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

We know
Saged

Pretty much this. Hopefully there is some market consolidation this year and we start seeing good projects suck value out of shitcoins.

I think most anons understand this, but personally, I HAVE LITERALLY SEEN THIS EXACT FUCKING POST EVERY DAY FOR 3 FUCKING YEARS.

I don't care if I lose what I have invested right now, however had I listened to this --literally exact same-- post 2 years ago I would have no car, and my girlfriend and I would be living in the appt we had in college.

Just saying.

I fucking hate niggers like you so much since I guarantee if I sell this shit will go to 15k before I can even react

Well of course you'll be late if you get your info from Veeky Forums. Why the hell would I do your thinking for you if I'm not gonna profit first?

Anyway put away your Chinese little girl cartoons and Atari home console away for a second and think where this market which you put all your hope and faith in is going. It's not rocket science, it's simple logic. Once you've tied all the steps together and figured out how various coins fit into it, you can make a handsome profit regardless of which direction the market is going in. Apply yourself.

>it's another marketcap episode
we LITERALLY had two of these topics just today to educate you on that
marketcap is merely an indicator and shouldn't be taken at absolute value
$ value is highly inflated
there is nowhere near that amount of fiat money invested in crypto
fucking google search that shit if you can't figure out the logic yourself (which is really common sense)

Anyone has a link of that guy on biz who explained why the marketcap is actually much lower than we think? It wasn't a FUD post, but very informative.

If you need a link to that information, then you are clearly a sub human race

Yeah yeah, the old double-count. It's known.

Ok then: each viable crypto is $1.4 billion on average, then.

Again: Does that sound realistic?

just because the price shouldn't go up doesn't mean it won't

No shit. December happened. But you can fly blind and hope for the best (what most of Veeky Forums is doing) or you can get some perspective and avoid getting JUSTed by gambling.

>the marketcap is actually much lower than we think
No, the marketcap is correct. People just misinterpret marketcap as meaning the total value held within the market.

JPM estimates that the multiplier for fiat>crypto stands at x50 right now. Crypto is not stocks - you sell companies for their market value but you cannot do the same with coins.

>If we average it out, this means each useful coin has a market cap of $2.8 billion
why the fuck are you averaging the coins lol that's retarded. they already have their own valuations, averaging just muddles the waters

you can't point to all coins as inflated when there's nothing else to compare their value to (unless you think comparing company valuations is the same lol if you think that you just don't get it)

there are a lot of shit projects and people will get burned. agree 100%. however, doesn't mean there are legit projects out there and that investing in their tokens/coins is worthwhile.

>If we average it out, this means each useful coin has a market cap of ____DONT CARE____

It doesn't make sense to average out over number of coins. They have vastly different value.
coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage

My point here is not an in-depth valuation, it's quick napkin math to see if we're all being retarded (yes we are)

>inflated marketcaps
>the old double-count
It's worse than that.

Here's the thread that is probably referring to:
archived.moe/biz/thread/7228543

>Crypto is not stocks - you sell companies for their market value but you cannot do the same with coins
Basically this. There are multiple factors that are making the marketcap a very deceptive indicator. Being generous, maybe $50-100bn of fiat is in the market right now. That's really nothing for a global emerging tech market.
And pic related is the quick napkin math to see that the reverse is even easier to prove (and yes, it's worse than the "double-count"

no, it paints a false picture, since bitcoin and eth dominate the marketcaps, so averaging them with shittier scamcoins are obviously gonna give them a higher valuation. (although i agree with you valuations are overinflated)

that's still 75 good coins, ez

sounds like a great future

i don't have a choice. there's nothing else a poorfag can make money investing on. either it fails and i stay poor or it doesn't. all in

This
If ((they)) wouldn't of fucked us for so long

I'm new to crypto and one fundamental thing I haven't quite figured out yet is which projects actually need coins/tokens and which ones are just bullshitting about needing them

You're a fucking brainlet but not an absolute brainlet because what you are saying is 100% correct but fuck man I would never hire you to be my analyst. Your basic stats is fucking horrendous. Also yes, Market Cap is a meme but it gives us a way to compare shit and see the general trend. Consider this brainlet: and im using estimates here (iPhone math. inb4 hurr android)

Total Market Cap: 420 Bn

BTC Market Cap: 160 Bn
Eth Market Cap: 80 Bn
Combined: 240 Bn or 57% of the total market cap

The rest of the top 10: 98.5 Bn
23% of the total market cap

The rest: 1509 tokens/coins/etc
54 MM of market cap or 19% of the total. Getting an average of 54 MM of "market cap" per coin. I still believe that's still retarded and needs to die off but FUUUUUCK MANNNN. Do some better math

The rest: 1509 Tokens should be 81.5 MM not 54MM

People have different agendas, remember that folks. I would make a post like this if I put my buy order of BTC at 9200 and expecting people to sell in my hands. Always have your own opinion and beliefs

>The rest: 1509 Tokens should be 81.5 MM not 54MM
Checked, and good point. I didn't even bother responding to that point. So now if you combine the fact that those tokens didn't get anywhere near to $30-40MM of actual fiat going in to them, it's such a poor argument to use them as a scapegoat to say that crypto as a whole is unsustainably inflated.

Yes, as a whole it's not that inflated but I still believe the vast majority of alt coins will slowly bleed out. Institutions will not be buying the bags off of regular people instead the coins with no use will slowly bleed out

When I was a kid an I had an idea I would write it in a notebook. Sometimes it would take years to find out it was stupid and obvious. Nowadays kids can find out how banal their thoughts are in seconds! Isnt technologg wonderful?

Yea, maybe being a little too aggressive on those numbers. But yea, I don't think it's a good idea to be investing in projects that don't at least look like a half-decent venture-backed startup. I'd think: would institutions invest in this? If not, it's a swing-trade at best

You can't time the market. Especially a speculative one. If you're scared, get your initial investment out and a bit extra to buy the dip. Besides, I don't buy shitcoins. STEEM, FCT, ETH, BTC, maybe LINK, NEO, STRAT

There's also the ticking time bomb of token economy which every utility token has. You barely hear that term on Veeky Forums but odds are even perfectly solid tokens hitting all development and deployment milestones will get roughly fucked up the ass for a variety of possible reasons

1. Planned token economy wildly optimistic, doesn't match actual use-case demand
2. Token craters because the team blew their load early and released too many tokens into circulation too soon, allowing speculators to capture and strangle it
3. Use case volume might be far smaller than speculation volume, in which case volatility makes adoption infeasible

Not many realize this but the moment the shit really hits the fan will be after alt-fiat pairings are common and when projects start being implemented for their intended use case. That's when the chips are down and when people will see what their tokens are really worth. Even completely solid projects might get massacred once it starts.

>Not many realize this but the moment the shit really hits the fan will be after alt-fiat pairings are common and when projects start being implemented for their intended use case.
I would say it would have the opposite effect. Although your points should be taken very seriously; and some projects will get hit hard.
But I think for the average promising project, not as much fiat has actually gone into them, and an alt/fiat pair will only benefit them, from a speculative perspective. From an actual use-case perspective, alt/fiat pairs would probably allow some projects to sky-rocket once their use-case and network goes into fullswing

Fuck off boomer.
Sage

What's your estimation for alt/fiat to become a force? I know there's a few exchanges talking about it

Sorry I mean "when"