How likely do you think extraterrestrial intelligent life is?

do you know how big the universe is?

why does the planet need to have Earth's exact history? Why do you think it's impossible for organisms to evolve on, say, Titan-like planets?

Again, did you read the post?

Not just organisms, civilization-level life

why does the planet need to have Earth's exact history? Why do you think it's impossible for civilization-level life to evolve on, say, Titan-like planets?

so you don't know how big the universe is

Wait sorry I'm new to Veeky Forums but why is this on the science board exactly? I simply do not understand.

If the origin of life is somewhat similar to our current unproven theories chances there aren't is negligible however overwhelming majority perhaps all of them are just too far to see our planet' s light. Also it should be taken as a note that intelligent life may be self-destructive and suicidal(Because of reasons such as; weapons of mass destruction and developed analatical thought unable to find enough reason to keep going and become powerful enough to overpower instictal thought)

>To get something like human-level intelligence elsewhere, you don't just need a planet within a habital zone, you need [tons of shit]
Why? Why would you need that specific set of requirements to arrive at human-level intelligent life? It's one way to get there, sure, but what makes you think it's the only possible way?

Ein-guy was smart, he was right for our part of the universe. Who knows how it works over the borders. It can literally be anything, and we'll never know.

they exist, but they either failed their Great Filter, or space is just too big for intelligent life to meet each other.

speaking of great filters. Humanity is entering ours.

Because civilization life requires being multicellular life
Read the post. It addresses your thought.

Are you saying microbes can build civilizations? You DO need to be multicellular, to be able to build and use tools, etc. Life as we know it can't form without water, etc.

>Because civilization life requires being multicellular life
Not that guy, but:
why does the planet need to have Earth's exact history? Why do you think it's impossible for multicellular life to evolve on, say, Titan-like planets?

Also, surely you saw this obvious followup question coming. If you are serious about this discussion, and not just trying to annoy us all to death, do your job and reply to these obvious followups before we need to ask them explicitly.

This is not even vaguely related to anything I said. Did you reply to the wrong post, perhaps?

It's not impossible, I'm saying that in order to get to civilization level life necessitates going through all the steps (water, amino acids, multicellularity, sexual reproduction, making it out of water, and the rest); that's what I mean by Earth's history with life.
You need those requirements to build a civilization; you can't just have any old type of life do it. Microbes can't do it, plant-like life can't do it. Prerequisites for it exist. No there's not one possible way, but there ARE prerequisites.

>Because civilization life requires being multicellular life

Check your multicellular privilege, shitlord.

>I'm saying that in order to get to civilization level life necessitates going through all the steps (water, amino acids, multicellularity, sexual reproduction, making it out of water, and the rest); that's what I mean by Earth's history with life.
>You need those requirements to build a civilization; you can't just have any old type of life do it.
You said that already in OP, but WHY do you think this? Please explain, for each specific step you listed in OP, why that exact component is a requirement, and why no intelligent life can arise that does things differently.

>The octopus elephants

I think soon we will learn that life is an inevitable byproduct of cosmic evolution

The nature of chemistry and thermodynamics is such that proto-life is likely to be a very common phenomenon. Would be very surprised if there wasn't abundant subsurface life in our solar system on Jupiter and Saturn's moons.

Think about this: life at any instant is incredibly improbable and rare. Only for a cosmologically tiny fraction has Earth itself been inhabitable. Mars may have had a habitable surface in its distant past. Titan may have a habitable surface in the very distant future, when our Sun becomes a red giant.

So life itself is rare, but mostly likely not on a cosmological scale. But how about intelligent life?

If you believe evolution, it is almost an inevitability, given that a planet or moon's conditions last long enough for significant natural selection to take place. After all, what possible string of mutations is more beneficial to survival than intelligence? If there is a Petri dish of life on some distant planet, the lifeform which mutates some sort of self sentience, or ability to manipulate tools and its environment, will be at a significant advantage.

Even if such a mutation is initally very rare, it will be aggressively selected for in following generations and snowball, because intelligence is the ultimate survival aid.

It really seems to me to be a systematic certainty on a large enough scale.

There is no precedent to think that life needs to exist in water, have amino acids, or be multicellular to be intelligent. That's just our experience in Earth, and all life on Earth follows these tenets because they most likely all come from the same common ancestor.

For all we know sentience could exist in some amorphous blob of molecules held together as one "cell".

The only thing we know for sure is that the starting point was most likely self selecting chemical or prebiotic reactions.

Evolution could take many twist and turns from that starting point, creating a totally different branch of "life" (which at this point is defined by no more than its property of unergoing natural selection)

To get to the civilization level

I saw a series on the possibility of life and its ludicrously likely that there is another planet supporting intelligent life. Of the trillions upon trillions of stars, each having varius gravitational pull as well as composition and orbiting entities, there must at least be one case in which the planet is of a good distance away from the star to nurture life. Life can also exist in places that are incredibly hostile. There are living organisms, that we know of now, that can survive the vacuum of space for instance.

And life on earth is also not billions of years old, by the way.

>bait taken

The problem with any claim at the likelihood or unlikelihood of intelligent life existing is that we have no idea what conditions are required to produce life, meaning we don't know how specific they need to be or how likely it is to take place at all even under ideal conditions.
Any realistic statistical analysis of the chance that extraterrestrial life of any kind, let alone intelligent life, exists would need to first take into account the chance that the processes that produce life will occur. The problem with every idiot that decides to claim it's extremely likely is that they're missing this massively important piece of the equation.
If anything, the current position should be that we do not know and cannot know until we have discovered the exact conditions under which life was able to begin on earth with the elements present here.

>And life on earth is also not billions of years old, by the way.
Uh, what?
americanscientist.org/issues/pub/the-beginnings-of-life-on-earth/1
>Advanced forms of life existed on earth at least 3.55 billion years ago

>How likely do you think extraterrestrial intelligent life is?
100%
>...But is that really a good argument?...
It is. Do you know how big the universe is?
>...you need a planet that has Earth's exact history...
What is evolutionary convergence?
>...; pretty unlikely
Again: do you know how big the universe is?

>this massively important piece of the equation.
That becomes a minuscule piece of the equation if the universe turns out to be infinitely big.(Its unknown whether it is or isn't however its looking pretty infinite so far. But even if it turns out being finite it will still be much much larger than the observable universe.)

I think the main reason scientists, NASA etc are playing up the probability of life in space is PR, to keep up funding.

The thing is, mitochondria within eukaryotic cells, required for multicellular life. Happened ONCE...ever...for all we know.

Maybe it's not just the required conditions we have. Maybe everything needs to happen just in the perfect order. Late heavy bombardment, snowball earth, comet impact etc...

"Life is common" people miss the giant fucking question: where is everybody? Any space faring civilization older than a million years should have colonized the whole galaxy already, and possibly some of the closer galaxies as well. We should be drowning in radio signals from elsewhere, weird spectrum distortions etc.

Guys, self replicating molecules could be weird accident, and cellular life a truly rare freak occurrence...it might have happened just once here. But, there is nothing inherent in our environment that promotes intelligence. Some dinosaurs probably were as smart as birds. A fraction of a fraction of the only intelligence producing line is able to pass mirror test. And that's not enough. Dolphins lack opposable thumbs and therefore will never build spacecraft. Most "intelligent" big apes aren't becoming smarter. They're becoming stronger, because knucklewalking is favored in their environment.

And then, the final nail in the coffin...only the tiny, tiny percentage of all the cultures which have ever existed, were able to form societies where cultural evolution became dominant. And what we assume as homo sapiens inherent tech savviness is freak accident with survival bias, and the true base scenario is more like the aboriginals or pygmys living technologically stagnant/regressing groups, more likely to lose than gain intelligence due to harsh environment favoring smaller less energy consuming brains.

Go search water, methane, ammonia and hydrogen and lightning creating amino acids.

Maybe there is non-water based life... or life without 'physical form', but we're unlikely to find the answer here.

Not to mention the possibility that extraterrestrial life is not even interested in space exploration.

You assume all of those things are required for intelligent life to exist because they were what allowed us to exist but evolution finds the same solution to different problems.

It's a pretty shitty theory that not only has zero evidence backing it, but is no longer even the most popularly held idea of how life began. Darwin's surface origin hypothesis has been out of style for a while now, not to say that it has any more or less proof than any other idea that tries to explain something that has no experimental data.

Infinite space doesn't mean infinite matter. Even in a very large universe, the formation of life may or may not require extremely specific conditions to form. It's conceivable that they could be so specific as to have only occurred once. The problem is we don't know and to make any claim that it's likely alien life exists is completely unfounded.

0%. God only created life on earth, go read the Bible if you don't believe me.

The bible doesn't even make any claims about the existence or nonexistence of alien life.
If you're going to shitpost at least try to put some work into it.

Pretty much 100%

If they did they would have contacted us already or fucked around with our development or etc. They don't exist, earth was a fluke and earth will be lucky to survive another 50 years

Can humans do that? No, so why should any other species with human level intelligence

There are more species of extraterrestrial life in our universe than there our atoms in our galaxy

I don't think you understand how many Earth-like planets are there

We have only observed 1500 planets, and 10 of them are Earth-like

The observable universe is believed to have 10^{24} planets

Whereas the total universe is believed to be 10^{10}^{10}^{122} times bigger than the observable universe

>10^{10}^{10}^{122}

nonsense OP. Earth life was created by God. we are the only planet with life in existence. it says so in the Bible

>the total universe is believed to be 10^{10}^{10}^{122} times bigger than the observable universe
how the fuck do you figure that

The bible doesn't even make any claims about the existence or nonexistence of alien life.
If you're going to shitpost at least try to put some work into it.

>the total universe is believed to be 10^{10}^{10}^{122} times bigger than the observable universe

The general ignorance is staggering. Are the millenials the first ahistorical generation?

By accounting for dark matter acceleration of expansion with an omega constant, determining the radius of the non observable universe, and then applying a simple volume of sphere formula and comparing ratios.

Time is the biggest factor, it is likely sentient civilizations will self-destruct or die out before they persist long enough to encounter sentient aliens. Furthermore, with this assumption, it is unlikely we are alive at the same time as another sentient civilization within a reasonable distance.

This is a hard question, but have simple answer(s).

Either are we alone or not alone. And either intelligent life is rare or common, but as long as we live under the tyranny of lightspeed(Alcubirre drive when?) we will probably never encounter any alien race. Why try to travel to a star 100 light years away when you will die of old age on the trip?

Ass-pull

>in order to get to civilization level life necessitates going through all the steps
^ that's correct

>water, amino acids, multicellularity, sexual reproduction, making it out of water, and the rest ( can only happen on earth you said )
^ that's wrong

Universe is big, really big. It's so big that even tho we've reached the limit of observation due how light travels, in 1 billion years we'll see even more space beyond what we already believe to be it.. probably more galaxies, more shit.

I think it's ~ 90 billion light years around which we observed.

Fermi paradox anyone?

It is pretty much a meme.

>ut why is this on the science board exactly? I simply do not understand.
because its related to evolution which is fits on science the best

>somewhat similar to our current unproven theories chances there aren't is negligib

>unproven theories
you mean hypothesis?

thats a good fucking point man

>matter. Even in a very large universe, the formation of life may or may not require extremely specific conditions to form. It's conceivable that they could be so specific as to have only occurred once. The problem is we don't know and to make any claim that it's likely alien life exists is completely unfounded.
gtfo

so you're just some retard trying to shit the board up with a useless thread

What? Just answered that guys question.

No, you fucking didn't. He asked why you believe it's necessary for civilization to develop in exactly the same way it did here on Earth, and all you respond with is "to get to civilization level." Either answer the question or go back to /b/.

You quoted the wrong person, and that's a great counter to a completely reasonable statement. Good job, now go back to studying comp sci, brainlet.

One could argue for many forms life, but the only really important ones are those that leave evidence of their existence and are possibly able to communicate with us. For this they need a civilization level comparable (or better) to ours.

Again, you're not answering the question.

>Read the post. It addresses your thought.
No, it says it's not a very good argument that the massive size and age of the universe could be a reason for people to believe in extraterrestrial intelligent life out there. Just dismissing it flat out is bullshit without an explanation, especially considering you can't imagine life outside of Earth life. Mercury-based life would probably confuse you if we ever were to come across some.

I just did. But nice trolling. Very original. Pretending to not being able to read. HA HA
Really epic

0

bump

...

...

Exactly. But dont bother, some pop-sci fags will always think life can happen anywhere, disregarding basic biology and even chemistry.

Oh shit! Which one?

Liberalism.

I worry that humanity is going to wipe itself out or be too stupid to make it out of Sol. What if there is a certain collider experiment that will implode the earth? Maybe attempts to control fusion will blow everyone up. Maybe we'll just dick around for a million years and waste all our resources that are needed to reach other planets.

Fuck off to /pol/.

Goddamned children everywhere.

triggered libtard detected. don't you have some BLM riot to attend to ?

This is Veeky Forums.

Pathetic political propagandists like you are not welcome here. Go die in a fire. In your case, preferably very slowly and painfully.

Talk about "triggered", what a kneejerk reaction!
Nice buzzword soup, too.
/pol/ is for discussing political topics, my dear

Why are all libtards so disgustingly hateful and easily triggered ? No wonder why you support cancer like BLM and ISIS. If you don't like propaganda then shut your face, we don't wanna hear yours.

Liberalism is the great filter of humanity that we are trying to survive through. He's replying to the question while you're desperately trying to mislabel it as propaganda.

>Why don't people like me when I shitpost /pol/ shit into Veeky Forums? All I wanted to do was spreading retarded tribal propaganda and derail a scientific discussion thread. Why can't people just respect that?

Why don't you go communicate with people who actually like you? Or respect you? Or have any kind of reason to listen to you?

Does your entire reason for existence consist in shitting into communcation spaces where you are not welcome?

Can you perhaps do humanity a favor? Just one: Please go die in a fire now, never to be heard from again. Thank you.

It is propaganda. It is retarded "us vs. them" political dualism. I dont know, why murrican have such a shallow view on politics but the fact remains that this is a political topic and /pol/ is the board for political discussion.

>Liberalism is the great filter of humanity that we are trying to survive through.
Nice samefagging, asshole. This was a scientific discussion until you came along. Not a good one, but at least not /pol/ shit tier.

I hope you, and everyone who gives you the time of day, dies in excruciating agony.

>Why don't you go communicate with people who actually like you? Or respect you? Or have any kind of reason to listen to you?

We are communicating. You are trying to interfere with your irrelevant butthurt and project your sad isolation onto others.
And please don't try to speak on behalf of Veeky Forums or any othr board as if this board supports BLM or ISIS or degeneracy or any other bullshit you try to sell as """progress"".

Now do what you're born to do and go cry in a dark corner.

Spoken like those racist copkillers. You seem like a proper liberal. You wanna join BLM sniper team ? Every conservative you kill we give you a free tattoo.

>We are communicating.
Yes you fucking asshole because you derailed the thread. But we are no longer discussing any kind of topic because you retarded piece of shit had to take a big fat propaganda dump into a completely unrelated communication space.

People like you are living lumps of memetic cancer and I do hope you die in pain for it, because you really, really do deserve it.

Now fuck off and die.

>SJW raids to derail yet another thread.
Not this shit again...

You derailed the thread with your intolerance and butthurt and you had zero scientific post so far. You should have respected the opinions of others and respect free speech, but the only purpose of your existence on this board is to shitpost like the cancer you are.

SJWtards like you are a cancer on Veeky Forums just as you're the cancer of the society. Go make a personal blog if you can't handle opinions.

Nice distortion, hypocrite. Who was it that started the /pol/ cancer and pretended it's science?

Hypocrites like you are the reason they get away with this shit.

>You derailed the thread with your intolerance and butthurt
Nope parasite, you derailed it the second you pretended that your political propaganda is science.

>SJWtards like you
More distortive propaganda. All I did was respond to your retarded tribalism, I never once made a political statement of my own.

This is why you are a living lump of cancer and you really do deserve a painful death. People like you poison everything, and I literally mean everything.

Your intolerance started this. Now if you kindly shut the fuck up and ease your butthurt that would be great.

>more SJWtard shitposting
Go die in a BLM riot you dumb mouthbreather. We dont want you or your cancerous ideology anywhere especially in a science board.
>The people who wants a civilized society are lumps of cancer
Spoken like a true libtard again. Fuck off and never come back.